How many on here do the Euromillions?

23-11-2016 05:21PM

BattleCorp wrote: »

The draw is made up from 50 numbers. How can excluding a whole pile of them not change the odds of you winning.

Pick any 7 numbers. You are excluding the other 43. Whether that 43 includes the highest 19, the lowest 19, or any other combination makes absolutely zero difference to the probability of winning with your chosen 7

ohnonotgmail · 23-11-2016 05:22PM

BattleCorp wrote: »

Well, if you do birthdays, then you won't have 35 or 42 in your selection. So in that instance, if those numbers were picked out, then the chances of someone using birthday numbers aren't the same.

The chances of 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 are the same as any 7 numbers up to 31 when you do birthdays.

But if you do that, you have no chance of getting 32,33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50.

Maybe I'm just thick but I can't see how they are the same.

The draw is made up from 50 numbers. How can excluding a whole pile of them not change the odds of you winning.

because you still pick the same number of numbers.

http://www.lottonumbers.com/lotto-odds-calculator.asp?Lottery=EuroMillions

notice how it doesnt ask you if you are only picking from a restricted subrange of the 50 numbers? thats because it isnt relevant.

bucketybuck · 23-11-2016 05:23PM

BattleCorp wrote: »

The draw is made up from 50 numbers. How can excluding a whole pile of them not change the odds of you winning.

Because the odds of any 6 numbers you can think of are exactly the same. The fact you have arbitrarily narrowed your possible range of selection does not change that fact.

Say you pick any 6 numbers between 1 and 30. I pick 6 between 1 and 50. We each buy a ticket and enter the same draw, what are the odds of each ticket winning?

Thats right, they are exactly the same.

4068ac1elhodqr · 23-11-2016 05:29PM

bucketybuck wrote: »

Say you pick any 6 numbers between 1 and 30. I pick 6 between 1 and 50. We each buy a ticket and enter the same draw, what are the odds of each ticket winning?

Thats right, they are exactly the same.

Incorrect, excluding oneself from a specific range of very possible selections reduces their chances.

Winterlong · 23-11-2016 05:33PM

Jaden Gentle Drizzle wrote: »

Incorrect, excluding oneself from a specific range of very possible selections reduces their chances.

Nope! The odds of each number coming up is the same regardless of where that numbers lies in the range.
So the range has nothing to do with it.
Picking the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 has the same odds as picking 1, 5, 10, 20, 30,40,

BattleCorp · 23-11-2016 05:34PM

I've put a shout out in the mathematics forum. One of those nerds will figure it out.

23-11-2016 05:41PM

Jaden Gentle Drizzle wrote: »

Incorrect, excluding oneself from a specific range of very possible selections reduces their chances.

No, it doesn't. Take these two people:

Person A always chooses a random selection of 7 numbers between 1 and 50. This particular week, the random selection throws up 1,2,3,4,5,6,7
Person B always chooses a random selection of 7 numbers between 1 and 7. This particular week, the random selection (amazingly) throws up 1,2,3,4,5,6,7

Person A has selected from the full range of 50 numbers. Person B has arbitrarily restricted their selection to just 7 numbers. Which person has the highest probability of winning the draw this week?

KERSPLAT! · 23-11-2016 05:42PM

BattleCorp wrote: »

I've put a shout out in the mathematics forum. One of those nerds will figure it out.

No, it's already figured out, you're not willing to take it on board unfortunately

ohnonotgmail · 23-11-2016 05:44PM

BattleCorp wrote: »

Well, if you do birthdays, then you won't have 35 or 42 in your selection. So in that instance, if those numbers were picked out, then the chances of someone using birthday numbers aren't the same.

The chances of 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 are the same as any 7 numbers up to 31 when you do birthdays.

But if you do that, you have no chance of getting 32,33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50.

Maybe I'm just thick but I can't see how they are the same.

The draw is made up from 50 numbers. How can excluding a whole pile of them not change the odds of you winning.

i'll explain it this way. going by the examples above you should always 50 as your first number cos if 50 is one of the numbers drawn then you wont win. if you continue this logic the number you should pick has to be 49. and so on. clearly this is nonsense.

BattleCorp · 23-11-2016 05:55PM

KERSPLAT! wrote: »

No, it's already figured out, you're not willing to take it on board unfortunately

Fair enough. I'll take my whipping. ☺

murpho999 · 23-11-2016 06:11PM

BattleCorp wrote: »

Well, if you do birthdays, then you won't have 35 or 42 in your selection. So in that instance, if those numbers were picked out, then the chances of someone using birthday numbers aren't the same.

The chances of 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 are the same as any 7 numbers up to 31 when you do birthdays.

But if you do that, you have no chance of getting 32,33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50.

Maybe I'm just thick but I can't see how they are the same.

The draw is made up from 50 numbers. How can excluding a whole pile of them not change the odds of you winning.

From a chance point of view any 6 number combo has the same odds as being drawn as another so it doesn't matter if you restrict your self to birthdays or not.

job seeker · 23-11-2016 06:13PM

2forjoy wrote: »

about once a month . its a form of gambling . don't get hooked

"When the fun stops, stop!"

bucketybuck · 23-11-2016 06:17PM

Jaden Gentle Drizzle wrote: »

Incorrect, excluding oneself from a specific range of very possible selections reduces their chances.

Nope, you are wrong.

Perhaps what a few people are missing is the fact that while "you" may have arbitrarily limited your selection to 30 numbers, the lottery draw itself has not, hence as far as the draw is concerned any 6 number combination has the same odds.

I could limited myself to only picking numbers between 10 and 20, but the lottery draw doesn't care, the odds of its numbers haven't changed.

mickwat155 · 23-11-2016 06:27PM

Someone I work with won €900 on a €3 quick pick from the bookies last week id be lying if I said I wasnt jealous when I cant even win a fiver when I do it in the shop lol

4068ac1elhodqr · 23-11-2016 08:44PM

Perhaps you're right @bucketybuck, and picking 1-5 only (as the main numbers) in the euromillions every week does indeed present the same chance as any other set e.g. from 1-50. As the numbers don't have memory nor bias.

It's very unlikely anyone would do this from a psychological view, just based on the statistical archive, which shows a nice spread (see image). Thus hard to process as true logic, due to the perceived 'expected value' with choosing a nice spread.

I'd only ever do the bookies hotpicks (pick 3/4/5) anyway in standard lottos, as cheaper than the retail ticket prices, and no funds go to foreign pension schemes.

KERSPLAT! · 24-11-2016 03:23AM

Lumped the €11 winnings onto tonight's draw... Didn't win. I think it's rigged, I was full sure I'd win tonight :rolleyes:

Steve F · 24-11-2016 11:09AM

mickwat155 wrote: »

Someone I work with won €900 on a €3 quick pick from the bookies last week id be lying if I said I wasnt jealous when I cant even win a fiver when I do it in the shop lol

Pay outs are more likely if you do it in the bookies as they pay out even if you only get one or two numbers.Depending on your stake you can get a nice amount for just 2 numbers.I got over 250 euro for 2 once.The national lottery you get a pathetic amount and you need at least 3 numbers.I think the reason more people don't do it in the bookies is because of the stigma still attached to going in the bookies even in this day and age
No difference tho between going in the bookies to play or going to a newsagents and playing the official game.Both are gambling but try and convince someone of that and they can't grasp it :rolleyes:

ohnonotgmail · 24-11-2016 11:18AM

Steve F wrote: »

Pay outs are more likely if you do it in the bookies as they pay out even if you only get one or two numbers.Depending on your stake you can get a nice amount for just 2 numbers.I got over 250 euro for 2 once.The national lottery you get a pathetic amount and you need at least 3 numbers.I think the reason more people don't do it in the bookies is because of the stigma still attached to going in the bookies even in this day and age
No difference tho between going in the bookies to play or going to a newsagents and playing the official game.Both are gambling but try and convince someone of that and they can't grasp it :rolleyes:

the lotteries done by the bookies are completely different odds to regular lotto play. In the bookies you can pick up to 5 balls BUT all the balls you pick must come up in the draw. So if you pick 3 balls then all 3 balls must appear in the lotto numbers drawn. if play the irish lotto you get to pick 6 numbers and if ANY 3 three of those numbers appear you win a prize. The payout is lower because the odds are better.

Steve F · 24-11-2016 11:39AM

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

the lotteries done by the bookies are completely different odds to regular lotto play. In the bookies you can pick up to 5 balls BUT all the balls you pick must come up in the draw. So if you pick 3 balls then all 3 balls must appear in the lotto numbers drawn. if play the irish lotto you get to pick 6 numbers and if ANY 3 three of those numbers appear you win a prize. The payout is lower because the odds are better.

I have won more money and more often than I ever did playing the "official" game.Go figure.
Also,I really do believe in the stigma between playing it in the bookies and the newsagents is still alive and well even today

How many on here do the Euromillions?

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