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Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

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Comments

  • #2282
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,797 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    swampgas wrote: »
    There is the possibility of EU funding to prop up Ireland. I have no idea how likely this might be, but we had decades of structural funds, so maybe the EU would find a way to reduce the impact on Ireland. Might be wishful thinking on my part though. Or maybe business relocating from the UK will make up some of the shortfall. Who knows ...

    Personally I don't see reunification on the cards at all in the short term. If a significant Brexit occurs then it will be ten years before things settle down to an extent that politicians are even prepared to think about it.

    If there is a protracted period of austerity in the UK, the Irish question will be very much to the fore not to mention the Scottish one.

    The sooner we get out of the 'when the UK sneezes, we catch cold' scenario, the better IMO.


  • #2283
    steddyeddy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,565 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    We don't choose our exposure to the UK. The EU does.

    The EU isn't seperate to Ireland.


  • #2284
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    If there is a protracted period of austerity in the UK, the Irish question will be very much to the fore not to mention the Scottish one.

    The sooner we get out of the 'when the UK sneezes, we catch cold' scenario, the better IMO.
    I don't think you realize that if there is protracted austerity in the UK there will be protracted austerity here. We will be in no shape to take on NI's problems.


  • #2285
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,797 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    A) That's rich coming from a person who (and you will deny this) doesn't see unionism as a legitimate ideology.


    It is an outdated one actually. The 'union' has been repudiated in the GFA. It won't be defended by Britain.
    Dodgy ground for any ideology.


  • #2286
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    It is an outdated one actually. The 'union' has been repudiated in the GFA. It won't be defended by Britain.
    Dodgy ground for any ideology.
    Quiet the opposite actually. The Union will be defended by any means necessary for as long as the majority of people in NI want it to exist.

    Also, there's no place called Britain, you mean Great Britain. :P


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  • #2287
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,797 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    I don't think you realize that if there is protracted austerity in the UK there will be protracted austerity here. We will be in no shape to take on NI's problems.

    The UK will be on it's own, we will be in the EU. That's why Arlene is not burning all her bridges with playing to her rabble.


  • #2288
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    The UK will be on it's own, we will be in the EU. That's why Arlene is not burning all her bridges with playing to her rabble.
    Being in the EU won't stop us falling into recession.


  • #2289
    steddyeddy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,565 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    Being in the EU won't stop us falling into recession.

    I think he means we will have control being in the EU. We influence the deal the uk will get.


  • #2290
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,797 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    Quiet the opposite actually. The Union will be defended by any means necessary for as long as the majority of people in NI want it to exist.

    Also, there's no place called Britain, you mean Great Britain. :P

    Britain will leave people who believe themselves to be also British if a majority vote that way.
    That makes anyone pushing a 'unionist' ideology a snake oil seller IMO. Dodgy ground.


  • #2291
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    steddyeddy wrote: »
    I think he means we will have control being in the EU. We influence the deal the uk will get.
    1 voice among 27, we should aim to get the UK the best possible deal.


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  • #2292
    Nate--IRL--
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭Nate--IRL--


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    1 voice among 27, we should aim to get the UK the best possible deal.

    We should aim to get Ireland the best possible deal.

    Nate


  • #2293
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,797 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    Being in the EU won't stop us falling into recession.

    No it won't, the lunatics who voted for this and who have forced a gov, who don't want to do it, into it, have seen to that.
    We have had recession before, but as the UK knows, we have good product to sell, we will recover and end our dependency. Every cloud etc etc.


  • #2294
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Britain will leave people who believe themselves to be also British if a majority vote that way.
    That makes anyone pushing a 'unionist' ideology a snake oil seller IMO. Dodgy ground.
    You could say the same about any referendum. Odd logic.


  • #2295
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    No it won't, the lunatics who voted for this and who have forced a gov, who don't want to do it, into it, have seen to that.
    We have had recession before, but as the UK knows, we have good product to sell, we will recover and end our dependency. Every cloud etc etc.
    We will recover if the UK has access to the free market. Otherwise we lose direct access to our most natural trading partner and our economy will suffer long term.


  • #2296
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,797 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    You could say the same about any referendum. Odd logic.

    It only takes one vote to end Unionism as a practical political ideology. Don't invest in new offices with a big mortgage! :D


  • #2297
    steddyeddy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,565 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    1 voice among 27, we should aim to get the UK the best possible deal.

    1 voice and 1 veto.


  • #2298
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    It only takes one vote to end Unionism as a practical political ideology. Don't invest in new offices with a big mortgage! :D
    Unionism isnt confined to NI.


  • #2299
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,797 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    Unionism isnt confined to NI.

    Let me be specific, Northern Irish Unionism.
    British unionism in general has problems too.


  • #2300
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Let me be specific, Northern Irish Unionism.
    British unionism in general has problems too.
    That's like saying northern irish republicanism. Unionism by its nature is an all uk ideology.


  • #2301
    Grayson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,008 ✭✭✭✭Grayson


    Nate--IRL-- wrote: »
    We should aim to get Ireland the best possible deal.

    Nate
    Yep. It may be that our interests are aligned but if not fcuk em. They are the ones who voted for a recession, not us.


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  • #2302
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    Grayson wrote: »
    Yep. It may be that our interests are aligned but if not fcuk em. They are the ones who voted for a recession, not us.
    It's not an if. We know for certain our interests allign with our largest trading partner.


  • #2303
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 27,954 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    It's not an if. We know for certain our interests allign with our largest trading partner.
    . . . which is the United States (exports of €26 billion).

    Followed by Belgium (€14.5 billion).

    And then the UK (€13.7 billion).

    The UK is important to us, no doubt. But it comes a distant third behind the US and the EU-27.


  • #2304
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    . . . which is the United States (exports of €26 billion).

    Followed by Belgium (€14.5 billion).

    And then the UK (€13.7 billion).

    The UK is important to us, no doubt. But it comes a distant third behind the US and the EU-27.
    You mean 2nd. The UK is currently part of the EU. If it goes into recession leaving the EU it could trigger a recession in Ireland.


  • #2305
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 27,954 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    You mean 2nd. The UK is currently part of the EU.
    I know. But if you break out the UK and the other EU member states, the UK is our third largest export market, rest-of-EU is our second, and the US our first.
    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    If it goes into recession leaving the EU it could trigger a recession in Ireland.
    Yes. Which is why we think Brexit is such an appalling idea.


  • #2306
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 27,954 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Bit cynical wrote: »
    . . . However, with the UK leaving the EU, even though both countries probably want to continue with the arrangement, it will primarily be the EU that imposes restrictions. The UK will still be free to accept Irish citizens to live and work in the UK, but Ireland will be forced to implement immigration rules against the UK. Some sort of formal qualification to work in Ireland will need to be established by UK citizens newly wishing to move here.

    But this impetus will come from the EU. It will be imposed on us by virtue of our membership of the EU. Both the UK and Irish governments will attempt to mitigate the worst aspects of this by lobbying the EU as best they can.
    I don't think this is right. Schengen countries have to have a common visa policy, but Ireland has a Schengen opt-out, and doesn't currently participate in the Schengen visa system. Brexit doesn't automatically change this.

    For the Common Travel Area to continue working, in practice two main things have to happen. First, the UK either has to join the EEA or enter into a Swiss-like arrangement with it (at present unlikely) or has to be added to the Annex II countries which enjoy visa-free access to the EU (highly likely if the UK seeks it, since the Annex II countries already include the US, Canada, Australia, most of South America). Secondly, the UK has to be willing to afford visa-free access to EU nationals. And I really think it's that last one that's the bottleneck.

    If the CTA falls over, it will be because of choices made by the UK, not choices made by the EU.


  • #2307
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    I know. But if you break out the UK and the other EU member states, the UK is our third largest export market, rest-of-EU is our second, and the US our first.


    Yes. Which is why we think Brexit is such an appalling idea.
    And why it's in our interest that the UK get the best deal possible.


  • #2308
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 27,954 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    And why it's in our interest that the UK get the best deal possible.
    Indeed. But we can only do so much as long as they seem determined to avoid it. We are a smalll country with limited resources and limited diplomatic capital, and in the end we cannot protect the British from themselves.


  • #2309
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    Indeed. But we can only do so much as long as they seem determined to avoid it. We are a smalll country with limited resources and limited diplomatic capital, and in the end we cannot protect the British from themselves.
    The UK is a large country with substantial diplomatic resources and soft power but they need allies on the inside. It's in our interest to ensure they get the best deal possible.

    If Le Pen is elected a French exit suddenly becomes a realistic possibility and in that case the Brexit would serve as a template. So it's in everyone's interests that this go as smooth as possible.


  • #2310
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 27,954 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    The UK is a large country with substantial diplomatic resources and soft power but they need allies on the inside. It's in our interest to ensure they get the best deal possible.

    If Le Pen is elected a French exit suddenly becomes a realistic possibility and in that case the Brexit would serve as a template. So it's in everyone's interests that this go as smooth as possible.
    Well, maybe not. The more smoothly Brexit goes, the more feasible Frexit may seem. Therefore those who do not favour Frexit will not think a smooth Brexit is a good idea.

    I think the Irish position is brutally simple; we want the freest possible trade between the UK and the EU-27, and the softest possible border in Ireland. The key to both of these things is to get the UK to soften its position on migration control. A good deal of the UK's angst about migration is in fact about immigration involving non-EU nationals; if the UK could be persuaded that its control over immigration should be mainly focussed on non-EU immigration, and EU nationals could be granted access to the UK on relatively generous terms (with reciprocal treatment for British citizens in the EU) an awful lot of things become possible.


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  • #2311
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    Well, maybe not. The more smoothly Brexit goes, the more feasible Frexit may seem. Therefore those who do not favour Frexit will not think a smooth Brexit is a good idea.

    I think the Irish position is brutally simple; we want the freest possible trade between the UK and the EU-27, and the softest possible border in Ireland. The key to both of these things is to get the UK to soften its position on migration control. A good deal of the UK's angst about migration is in fact about immigration involving non-EU nationals; if the UK could be persuaded that its control over immigration should be mainly focussed on non-EU immigration, and EU nationals could be granted access to the UK on relatively generous terms (with reciprocal treatment for British citizens in the EU) an awful lot of things become possible.
    I think if Le Pen wins it will have represented a shift in French public opinion and at that stage a Frexit is inevitable. Trying to disude the French by punishing the British is more likely to make them double down.

    Unfortunately right wing nationalism and isolationism seems to be in ascendency in the West.


This discussion has been closed.
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