Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

Peregrinus · 21-11-2016 06:12AM

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

The idea to check immigrants at southern Irish ports and airports was myopically shot down by the Irish government I believe. Maybe it's time to explore that idea if we want to avoid a hard border.

We can't. EU nationals have a right of free movement throughout the EU. We can't be checking them on entry into Ireland and refusing them entry if they are someone who would require a visa for the UK.

The problem goes away if the UK will afford a right of visa-free entry to all nationals of EU member states. But Teresa May seems to think - and for all I know she may be right - that the whole reason people voted for Brexit was because they didn't want the UK to do that, or at any rate they didn't want the UK to be committed to doing that.

Fratton Fred · 21-11-2016 06:19AM

If Ireland is happy for someone from Outer Mongolia to enter Ireland, that person can easily travel to the UK at the moment, despite not having a visa. What they don't have, is the right to live and work there.

In the future, that will apply to someone from France or Spain as well. I don't agree with it, but I don't see the problem.

Peregrinus · 21-11-2016 06:37AM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

If Ireland is happy for someone from Outer Mongolia to enter Ireland, that person can easily travel to the UK at the moment, despite not having a visa. What they don't have, is the right to live and work there.

In the future, that will apply to someone from France or Spain as well. I don't agree with it, but I don't see the problem.

The UK and Irish governments do, though. The CTA only works because the UK and Ireland don't have materially different entry rules for third countries (both EU and non-EU). The deal is that if you land at, say, Heathrow, and you are somebody who would be refused entry on landing in Dublin, you'll be refused entry on landing in Heathrow. And vice versa. And this works largely because the entry rules are similar for both countries. If a Mongolian requires a visa to enter the UK, he'll find that he also requires a visa to enter Ireland. There are a very few discrepancies between the two countries' visa regimes, and they're regarded as an anomaly which is tolerated provided it remains small.

But an absolutely irreducible requirement of Ireland's EU membership is that it doesn't impose barriers to entry to nationals from any EU member state. If the UK forms (or, more accurately, continues) a Common Travel Area with Ireland, the UK is in effect affording visa-free entry to nationals of every EU Member State. And there'll be no question of, e.g. endorsing their passports to show they have to leave within six months or whatever, since their passports cannot be so endorsed on entering Ireland.

The bottom line is that a Common Travel Area between the UK and Ireland is only viable if the UK wishes to afford all EU nationals the same rights of entry and rights of abode that they currently enjoy in the UK, and will continue to enjoy in Ireland. Maybe they are happy to do that; if so, great. problem solved. But that's not what the rhetoric is suggesting.

Could the UK, post-Brexit, afford EU nationals a right of entry and a right of abode, but not a right to work? In theory, yes, I think so. In practice, it would be very difficult to enforce. They'd end up, I think, with a significant cohort of EU nationals working in the black economy. They'd also have, for the first time, a substantial community living in the UK who weren't entitled to social security, to avail of the NHS, etc, and, to be honest, I don't think they'd see that as a desirable state of affairs. No country actually wants an official underclass. You'd also have to ask questions about the rights and entitlements of children born to people lawfully in the UK, but not allowed to work. Would they be admitted to UK schools? When they grew up, would they be allowed to work? Would they, indeed, be British citizens?

So, all in all, I think this is probably not an attractive policy from a UK point of view. It's hard to see, realistically, how the Common Travel Area can be preserved unless the UK is going to grant what amounts to continue free movement to EU nationals on pretty much the present terms.

Christy42 · 21-11-2016 08:18AM

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think it is important to remember that free movement of people existed between the Ireland and the UK before free movement existed between countries of the EU. If a hard border is therefore created between the two countries, the primary impetus will come from the EU - not the UK - though the UK may be forced to respond in kind.

The hard border is because we will have free movement for European citizens but the north won't. So it is down to the UK. Unless we leave the EU (a terrible idea) the situation that existed before both countries were in the EU does not apply.

catbear · 21-11-2016 01:44PM

The simple fact is and the unionists in the North know this too well that the CTA can be pulled back to the Irish sea like is was during the war and the decade after.

We're not going to physically stop EU citizens from crossing into Northern Ireland, especially if they're heading to north Donegal through NI.

At the customs border
Guard: "you know now that that's not the EU up the road there"
EU citizen: "Yes officer, I know."
Guard: "Right, they use miles, not kilometres, the ****ers will do you for that"
EU citizen: "What are they going to do, deport me?"
Both laugh!

VinLieger · 21-11-2016 02:13PM

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

The idea to check immigrants at southern Irish ports and airports was myopically shot down by the Irish government I believe. Maybe it's time to explore that idea if we want to avoid a hard border.

Love the irony of defending brexit by calling our government myopic

FrancieBrady · 21-11-2016 02:14PM

VinLieger wrote: »

Love the irony of defending brexit by calling our government myopic

You just couldn't make that one up, could you?

Crea · 21-11-2016 02:26PM

The husband was dealing with a company last week. They are a US group opening a new office. The were deciding between Belfast and our local city and because of Brexit they decided against Belfast.

steddyeddy · 21-11-2016 02:37PM

Crea wrote: »

The husband was dealing with a company last week. They are a US group opening a new office. The were deciding between Belfast and our local city and because of Brexit they decided against Belfast.

Indeed. Deloitte says it will move business out of the UK if immigration affects access to quality staff the Independent reports.

The world’s largest accountancy firm will move work outside of the UK if it cannot employ enough foreign workers after Brexit.

The warning from Deloitte comes after Theresa May attacked the company for a leaked internal memo accusing the Government of being clueless in Brexit negotiations.

David Sproul, chief executive of Deloitte UK told Sky News foreign workers were “vital” to the company’s success and said he would move work abroad if the Government’s stance on foreign workers was too hard line.

Downing Street attacks Deloitte after 'no Brexit plan' government memo
He said: “We have more than 100 nationalities working for us in the UK. Having a diverse workforce is vital in terms of allowing us to grow and innovate.

“If we weren’t able to bring them in we’d adapt, in terms of how we train people locally and some of that would definitely be possible.

“But more likely some of the work we do here, wouldn’t be done here. We’re a global organisation. The work would be done outside of the UK rather than within the UK.

When asked to clarify if he would move Deloitte’s business, Sproul replied, “Correct”.

The words will be seen as the firm flexing its muscles in the latest round of a spat with Theresa May’s Government.

The Prime Minister launched a stinging offensive against Deloitte for a leaked company memo suggesting the cabinet had no plan for Brexit negotiations. The memo said May was unprepared for the talks and needed an 30,000 extra civil servants to handle the additional workload.

May rebuked Deloitte for “touting for business”. The company employs 16,000 people in the UK, generating over £3bn and handles many government contracts as well as auditing a host of FTSE 100 firms.

Bit cynical · 21-11-2016 03:07PM

Peregrinus wrote: »

I don't think that's right. Yes, there was a common travel area between the UK and Ireland before either country joined the EU, but:

1. This co-existed with a somewhat hard border. There wasn't free movement of goods between the two countries, and there were customs controls in place.

2. More to the point, the common travel area was possible because the UK and Ireland each agreed, in effect, to enforce one another's migration policies. If you arrived in the UK as someone who wouldn't be entitled to enter Ireland, you wouldn't be admitted to the UK, and vice versa. This worked, obviously, only because the two countries had very similar migration policies.

Both countries still have similar migration policies, because both are in the EU. But a significant factor in the UK's Brexit decision, it seems, is the desire to run a more restrictive immigration policy. If the UK wants to (say) not afford free movement to citizens of Romania, Bulgaria or Poland, a Common Travel Area on the old model becomes impossible unless Ireland imposes similar restrictions on Romanians, Bulgarians and Poles which, obviously, we are not going to do, and cannot do as long as we remain in the EU.

In this scenario it's the UK which will want and need to end the Common Travel Area. The primary impetus will not be coming from the EU. The UK wants to control its own borders, and that's simply not consistent with a Common Travel Area involving an EU Member State.

Some good points here, but I think the main aspect of the common travel area that both Ireland and the UK will want to retain is the right of Irish and UK citizens to live and work in each other's country. Ireland checks passports of those entering from the UK already in Southern Irish airports. But UK citizens don't have to qualify to live and work here and likewise Irish citizens don't have to qualify to live and work in the UK, they merely need to be UK or Irish citizens.

This arrangement pre-dates the EU as you point out. However, with the UK leaving the EU, even though both countries probably want to continue with the arrangement, it will primarily be the EU that imposes restrictions. The UK will still be free to accept Irish citizens to live and work in the UK, but Ireland will be forced to implement immigration rules against the UK. Some sort of formal qualification to work in Ireland will need to be established by UK citizens newly wishing to move here.

But this impetus will come from the EU. It will be imposed on us by virtue of our membership of the EU. Both the UK and Irish governments will attempt to mitigate the worst aspects of this by lobbying the EU as best they can.

steddyeddy · 21-11-2016 03:24PM

If anyone thinks that British people want to hang onto Northern Ireland because of empire ect just look at the mess this will create for them. Most want rid of it.

Christy42 · 21-11-2016 03:50PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Some good points here, but I think the main aspect of the common travel area that both Ireland and the UK will want to retain is the right of Irish and UK citizens to live and work in each other's country. Ireland checks passports of those entering from the UK already in Southern Irish airports. But UK citizens don't have to qualify to live and work here and likewise Irish citizens don't have to qualify to live and work in the UK, they merely need to be UK or Irish citizens.

This arrangement pre-dates the EU as you point out. However, with the UK leaving the EU, even though both countries probably want to continue with the arrangement, it will primarily be the EU that imposes restrictions. The UK will still be free to accept Irish citizens to live and work in the UK, but Ireland will be forced to implement immigration rules against the UK. Some sort of formal qualification to work in Ireland will need to be established by UK citizens newly wishing to move here.

But this impetus will come from the EU. It will be imposed on us by virtue of our membership of the EU. Both the UK and Irish governments will attempt to mitigate the worst aspects of this by lobbying the EU as best they can.

At what point are the British planning on policing EU goods coming into the UK effectively tariff free by coming through Ireland? They have to check for the goods somewhere. Even just Irish goods driving up across the border as we won't have a free trade agreement with them.

They failed horrifically the last time they tried to enforce that border. They can keep the right of Irish to work in the UK (but have the issue of long queues checking for smugglers at borders as well as anyone with access to Ireland but not the North if they want to keep track of EU citizens going to the UK from the Republic).

This border comes from the decision by the UK.

catbear · 21-11-2016 04:32PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Some good points here, but I think the main aspect of the common travel area that both Ireland and the UK will want to retain is the right of Irish and UK citizens to live and work in each other's country.

The Common Travel area is separate to right to work. The Republic of Ireland Act 1949 in westminster was not reciprocated in Ireland.

Fratton Fred · 21-11-2016 04:41PM

catbear wrote: »

The Common Travel area is separate to right to work. The Republic of Ireland Act 1949 in westminster was not reciprocated in Ireland.

British citizens are not subject toe 1935 Aliens act and have more rights than other eu citizens.

British citizens resident in Ireland can, for example, vote in local and Dail elections.

A Little Pony · 21-11-2016 05:12PM

If Article 50 isn't triggered by March, it will just show how corrupt the establishment is. Theresa May will either be a good Prime Minister or a complete loser with no backbone. I am starting to think she is made of soft stuff.

Bit cynical · 21-11-2016 05:28PM

Christy42 wrote: »

At what point are the British planning on policing EU goods coming into the UK effectively tariff free by coming through Ireland? They have to check for the goods somewhere. Even just Irish goods driving up across the border as we won't have a free trade agreement with them.

They failed horrifically the last time they tried to enforce that border. They can keep the right of Irish to work in the UK (but have the issue of long queues checking for smugglers at borders as well as anyone with access to Ireland but not the North if they want to keep track of EU citizens going to the UK from the Republic).

This border comes from the decision by the UK.

Well, remember that the UK is seeking a free trade deal with the EU. If they and the EU succeed then, although there might be some formality at ports, there won't be much of an economic incentive to route goods through Ireland.

But some people in Ireland want a tough line taken by the EU against Britain. Unless full freedom of movement is granted to every EU citizen then there can be no free trade. But this then means that a hard border has to be created between Ireland and Britain as Ireland would potentially become the smuggling route. In addition, goods from Britain would be routed through Ireland into the EU.

But a decent free trade deal means that none of this is necessary. Brexit is a done deal. It is going to happen. But what is still in play is the sort of arrangement Britain gets with the EU. Ireland, as an EU member with an interest in not having a hard border, has a role to play in this.

Christy42 · 21-11-2016 05:48PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well, remember that the UK is seeking a free trade deal with the EU. If they and the EU succeed then, although there might be some formality at ports, there won't be much of an economic incentive to route goods through Ireland.

But some people in Ireland want a tough line taken by the EU against Britain. Unless full freedom of movement is granted to every EU citizen then there can be no free trade. But this then means that a hard border has to be created between Ireland and Britain as Ireland would potentially become the smuggling route. In addition, goods from Britain would be routed through Ireland into the EU.

But a decent free trade deal means that none of this is necessary. Brexit is a done deal. It is going to happen. But what is still in play is the sort of arrangement Britain gets with the EU. Ireland, as an EU member with an interest in not having a hard border, has a role to play in this.

The EU is open to free trade and have laid out the conditions for this to be a thing. A free trade deal involving nothing else would be pure charity from the EU.

I hate the phrase the EU will punish them. They won't, they also aren't going to be giving the UK a good deal for the sake of being nice to the UK. The EU will argue for a deal in its own interests. It works because some countries want free trade and some want free movement. Thus a deal is done. If you have free trade without free movement then those countries that want free movement lose out. This is hardly fair on them and I see no reason for them to give the UK aid.

The UK wants their demands met and yet offers little in return. That is not how deals are done. If they had something to offer then we could lobby the EU but right now they are going round with a begging dish.

Fratton Fred · 21-11-2016 05:54PM

Christy42 wrote: »

The UK wants their demands met and yet offers little in return. That is not how deals are done. If they had something to offer then we could lobby the EU but right now they are going round with a begging dish.

the UK hasn't made any demands yet, all we have is speculation and a few sound bites

steddyeddy · 21-11-2016 05:56PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well, remember that the UK is seeking a free trade deal with the EU. If they and the EU succeed then, although there might be some formality at ports, there won't be much of an economic incentive to route goods through Ireland.

But some people in Ireland want a tough line taken by the EU against Britain. Unless full freedom of movement is granted to every EU citizen then there can be no free trade. But this then means that a hard border has to be created between Ireland and Britain as Ireland would potentially become the smuggling route. In addition, goods from Britain would be routed through Ireland into the EU.

It would be completely unfair to allow Britain free trade with immigration limits on EU citizens. Contrary to Boris' ramblings, free movement of people is one of the cornerstones of the EU. Being realistic about free movement of trade and people isn't equivalent to wanting a tough deal for Britain.

But a decent free trade deal means that none of this is necessary. Brexit is a done deal. It is going to happen. But what is still in play is the sort of arrangement Britain gets with the EU. Ireland, as an EU member with an interest in not having a hard border, has a role to play in this.

A hard border wouldn't work anyway. It would go against the GFA. Unionists, republicans and the rest are united in not wanting a hard border. Many people north and south of the border wouldn't accept that.

steddyeddy · 21-11-2016 05:57PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

the UK hasn't made any demands yet, all we have is speculation and a few sound bites

But we know Brexit means Brexit.

Fratton Fred · 21-11-2016 06:05PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

But we know Brexit means Brexit.

but it doesn't mean isolationism.

steddyeddy · 21-11-2016 06:07PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

but it doesn't mean isolationism.

I should hope not!

swampgas · 21-11-2016 06:24PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

but it doesn't mean isolationism.

I wonder. A lot of the "taking back control" rhetoric comes across as a sort of isolationism - it's a rejection of a shared European framework, and a rejection of the values of its neighbours. For a lot of hardline Brexit supporters Brexit means the UK striking out on its own, master of its own destiny.

The UK might not be isolationist in terms of pure trade, but in cultural and political terms the UK certainly strikes me as wanting to pull up the drawbridge from the rest of the EU.

Ulysses Gaze · 21-11-2016 06:30PM

So Tony Blair is back. To save the UK from Brexit.

Can't this ****ing guy take a hint and slither back under his rock.

Christy42 · 21-11-2016 06:30PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

the UK hasn't made any demands yet, all we have is speculation and a few sound bites

This is true but if we have movement of people and goods then neither side will stick up a border anyway. It is the result I am hoping for.

ohnonotgmail · 21-11-2016 06:33PM

Christy42 wrote: »

This is true but if we have movement of people and goods then neither side will stick up a border anyway. It is the result I am hoping for.

If there is free movement of people and goods what was the point of leaving?

Christy42 · 21-11-2016 07:08PM

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

If there is free movement of people and goods what was the point of leaving?

No idea ask the Brexiters. Only way I can see no border going up though.

Fratton Fred · 21-11-2016 07:28PM

swampgas wrote: »

I wonder. A lot of the "taking back control" rhetoric comes across as a sort of isolationism - it's a rejection of a shared European framework, and a rejection of the values of its neighbours. For a lot of hardline Brexit supporters Brexit means the UK striking out on its own, master of its own destiny.

The UK might not be isolationist in terms of pure trade, but in cultural and political terms the UK certainly strikes me as wanting to pull up the drawbridge from the rest of the EU.

taking back control was just a catch phrase the Brexit campaign used and like all good political catch phrases, it can mean different things to different people.

To some, it is taking back control of trade deals, to others it is taking back control of borders, to others, it is taking back control of legislation or control of fishing rights.

whilst in that lot, there may be some isolationists, when you consider that only 51% voted to leave, you can safely presume that a relatively small percentage of those are isolationists and therefore, Britain will not seek a policy of isolation.

This is the biggest problem with creating a Brexit strategy, no one actually knows what it means as a whole, because it means different things to different people.

A Little Pony · 21-11-2016 07:30PM

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

So Tony Blair is back. To save the UK from Brexit.

Can't this ****ing guy take a hint and slither back under his rock.

Great news for us brexit voters.

Junkyard Tom · 21-11-2016 07:45PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Great news for us brexit voters.

Unionist Brexit voters are so twisted by their pseudo-British Nationalism they may well have helped score the greatest own-goal in their history.

If I was a dissident Republican I'd be delighted with Brexit. You may well have pushed forward the day you dread by many many years.

If austerity bites hard in the northeast of Ireland watch the idea of a United Ireland come alive in the public consciousness.

Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

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