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2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

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Comments

  • #6662
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,174 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    K-9 wrote: »
    There was supposed to be a Bradley effect (think that is the name!) against Obama in 08 and it never really happened.

    I can't help but think of that being cited as a reason for a shock David Duke win when he was running for Senate, that white voters wouldn't admit their support for him. In reality, there was an unexpected surge of black voters who came out to ensure his defeat.


  • #6663
    TheDoctor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,980 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    Georgia exit poll

    Trump 48 Clinton 47


  • #6664
    K-9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,313 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Sofa Spud wrote: »
    Slate are showing the vote in NV as 473k for Hillary and 465k for Trump - 2012 total vote was 990k, so there's still some voting to be done - probably a couple of hours from when the numbers were released and the close of the polls.

    Still, it's way to close to call now, but if the Latino vote has increased by as much as is anecdotally being said, then you would have to think that will benefit Hillary.

    This was yesterdays podcasts. Trump's team thought a 6% difference in early voting was recoverable but it was over 10%.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • #6665
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,174 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    TheDoctor wrote: »
    Georgia exit poll

    Trump 48 Clinton 47

    FiveThirtyEight predicted 49.5/45.5 for Trump, this doesn't bode well for him.


  • #6666
    aligator_am
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,598 ✭✭✭aligator_am


    To be honest I think Hilary will win, by hook or crook, however if that happens I wouldn't be surprised if Trump launched a new 3rd party afterwards and tried to bring a large chunk of his supporters with him.

    I think a lot of Americans are just so disillusioned with the whole 2 party debacle that I could see a large amount of them going 3rd party at the next election, even if that's not with the possible Trump 3rd party.


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  • #6667
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,542 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    I know Karl rove has used the whiteboard in other elections but Tim russert did it better IMO. Florida Florida Florida!


  • #6668
    captbarnacles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,972 ✭✭✭captbarnacles


    An eyewatering 150m matched on this on betfair now


  • #6669
    BOHtox
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,314 ✭✭✭BOHtox


    Where's everyone following this? Any good websites?

    Also does anyone have a list of when all the polls close?


  • #6670
    TheOven
    Closed Accounts Posts: 222 ✭✭TheOven


    BOHtox wrote: »
    Where's everyone following this? Any good websites?

    Also does anyone have a list of when all the polls close?

    NBC have a stream on youtube. Seems fine but not sure if they are comparatively good.


  • #6671
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,542 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    BOHtox wrote: »
    Where's everyone following this? Any good websites?

    Also does anyone have a list of when all the polls close?

    https://twitter.com/rteradio1/status/796102223935799296

    RTE tweeted this graphic earlier giving the times polls close our time tonight.


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  • #6672
    Christy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,107 ✭✭✭Christy42


    http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/

    In the feed Carl Bialik reports a big surge in women voters. More bad news early on for Trump. Though oddly there is a county in Kentucky that has never voted Republican (in spite of the rest of the state) that he appears to be winning.


  • #6673
    BOHtox
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,314 ✭✭✭BOHtox


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/rteradio1/status/796102223935799296

    RTE tweeted this graphic earlier giving the times polls close our time tonight.

    Exactly what I'm looking for. Cheers


  • #6674
    RobertKK
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,775 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    The odds are starting to shorten for Trump to win.

    It seems the highest rating thing people want is change, which polls show Trump wins on.
    Obama promised change and the only change was skin colour.


  • #6675
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 22,384 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    aligator_am wrote: »
    To be honest I think Hilary will win, by hook or crook, however if that happens I wouldn't be surprised if Trump launched a new 3rd party afterwards and tried to bring a large chunk of his supporters with him.

    I think a lot of Americans are just so disillusioned with the whole 2 party debacle that I could see a large amount of them going 3rd party at the next election, even if that's not with the possible Trump 3rd party.

    He might as well burn stacks of his money.

    The only reason he will get votes at all is because he is on the Republican ticket. If he thinks he is personally attractive enough to draw people away from the usual 2 sides, he is completely out of touch.


  • #6676
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 23,016 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    RobertKK wrote: »
    The odds are starting to shorten for Trump to win.

    It seems the highest rating thing people want is change, which polls show Trump wins on.
    Obama promised change and the only change was skin colour.

    A woman president isn't a change?

    Anyway, these exit polls are a bit of nonsense.

    they/them/theirs


    The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.

    Noam Chomsky



  • #6677
    RobertKK
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,775 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Brian? wrote: »
    A woman president isn't a change?

    Anyway, these exit polls are a bit of nonsense.

    No, it is just a different sex, not different policy.


  • #6678
    K-9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,313 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Christy42 wrote: »
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/

    In the feed Carl Bialik reports a big surge in women voters. More bad news early on for Trump. Though oddly there is a county in Kentucky that has never voted Republican (in spite of the rest of the state) that he appears to be winning.

    It could be that NPR's analysis months back holds out:

    Clinton is unpopular amongst men, Trump with women to an even higher level!

    Trump had to reverse that and it looks like he did nothing during the election to appeal to them.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • #6679
    BorneTobyWilde
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,246 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    Trump leading Florida, Virginia, and Georgia .


  • #6680
    BorneTobyWilde
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,246 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    Early


  • #6681
    K-9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,313 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    RobertKK wrote: »
    The odds are starting to shorten for Trump to win.

    It seems the highest rating thing people want is change, which polls show Trump wins on.
    Obama promised change and the only change was skin colour.

    Those 37% or whatever wanting change wouldn't be Trump voters, would they?

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



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  • #6682
    RobertKK
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,775 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    CNN breaking wind: Senior Trump adviser "It will take a miracle for us to win".


  • #6683
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 23,016 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    BorneTobyWilde wrote: »
    Trump leading Florida, Virginia, and Georgia .

    A 60k lead in Florida is decent, but it really depends on which counties have been counted. If Miami is in, Clinton is done in Florida.

    they/them/theirs


    The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.

    Noam Chomsky



  • #6684
    RobertKK
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,775 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    K-9 wrote: »
    Those 37% or whatever wanting change wouldn't be Trump voters, would they?

    About 1/5 are Clinton voters.


  • #6685
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 23,016 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    Wowser! 110k swing in Florida in the last couple of minutes. Clinton now up by 50k.

    She's matching Obama's numbers in Florida. That's huge.

    they/them/theirs


    The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.

    Noam Chomsky



  • #6686
    BorneTobyWilde
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,246 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    Hillary shoots into lead in Florida, big Suburb came in to shoot her into lead.


  • #6687
    TheOven
    Closed Accounts Posts: 222 ✭✭TheOven


    RobertKK wrote: »
    CNN breaking wind: Senior Trump adviser "It will take a miracle for us to win".

    First sign of sense from that campaign. Maybe a miracle is possible.


  • #6688
    Sparks43
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,074 ✭✭✭Sparks43


    Brian? wrote: »
    Wowser! 110k swing in Florida in the last couple of minutes. Clinton now up by 50k.

    She's matching Obama's numbers in Florida. That's huge.

    Seems to be early vote dumps. If she doesn't get them shes toast


  • #6689
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,542 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    RobertKK wrote: »
    Brian? wrote: »
    A woman president isn't a change?

    Anyway, these exit polls are a bit of nonsense.

    No, it is just a different sex, not different policy.
    So a different sex isn't a change ? Something that has never happened before potentially happening isn't a change ? Ah Robert come on. All politics aside this could potentially be historic. That's a change.


  • #6690
    InTheTrees
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,900 ✭✭✭InTheTrees


    Brian? wrote: »
    A 60k lead in Florida is decent, but it really depends on which counties have been counted. If Miami is in, Clinton is done in Florida.

    Large urban centres can be slow to count and do lean democrat.


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  • #6691
    BorneTobyWilde
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,246 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    Not sure Hillary ran it up enough in Florida, so many rural areas not in yet.


This discussion has been closed.
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