2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

Billy86 · 19-10-2016 08:22PM

Sofa Spud wrote: »

On a slightly separate note, anyone watching the Keith Olbermann 'The Closer' clips on youtube? Partisan as always, but watchable all the same.

Ah I absolutely can't stand that guy, to be fair. Not huge on Rachel Maddow either, but she's a huge step up on him... they're all a bit preachy. That's fine for John Oliver & Jon Stewart, but I'd rather keep that off my actual news-feed - too easy to get sucked into an alternate reality that Fox/Breitbart/Trump supporters currently find themselves in.

Billy86 · 19-10-2016 08:29PM

Finnley Quaint Wineglass wrote: »

It said on the news that HC has been resting for the last 2weeks, sounds a bit peculiar....

I googled 'Clinton resting' and all I got was results on 'Clinton resting b*tch face', just curious where you read that?

Though sitting back and letting Trump continue his never-ending implosion probably is the easiest route to victory for her all the same! :pac:

Billy86 · 19-10-2016 08:36PM

Roanmore wrote: »

Is there any indication on how the House and Senate elections are impacted by the Trump / Clinton campaigns?

I was actually just thinking this reading Overheal's post about governors - if I recall it has hurt them quite a bit, though their race to distance themselves from him seems to have put a better face on it lately. It will be interesting to see how they do potentially without the Trump bloc, though.

The Senate will be close but the feeling a week or so ago seemed to be that it was edging in the Dem's favour. 10 Dem seats and 24 Reps are up for grabs, the Reps have a 54-44 lead, though really more 54-46 as the two independents (King, Sanders) are much more on the Dem side of things. So a gain of 4 would basically give the Dems an effective majority while keeping them in check, 6 would seal it for them. Tim Kaine will be Senate president with the deciding vote for tie-breakers, remember.

The House seems very safe to remain Republican, though the Dems are expected to make gains that could cause a good few issues given how fractured the GOP are post-tea party, but especially post-Trump.

Overheal · 19-10-2016 08:36PM

Roanmore wrote: »

Is there any indication on how the House and Senate elections are impacted by the Trump / Clinton campaigns?

broad question tbh, whether or not HRC has been favorable/unfavorable to party races and similar to Trump. However many GOP candidates distanced themselves quickly from Trump after the sex assault allegations began.

I haven't followed 538 for the Senate and I don't know what its predictability record has been. But when I checked it a few weeks ago the average outcome appeared to be a nearly split Senate, which has shifted to a higher likelihood of a DNC majority.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

Neither party has a shot at a supermajority (2/3rds). So the odds of Hillary getting impeached, for example, stop right there, as removal from office would require a 2/3rds senate vote. The near split is bad news however, as the parties are both so divisive that they will filibuster one another till the end of time.

As far as the House goes, don't get me started on Gerrymandering.

Overheal · 19-10-2016 08:40PM

Billy86 wrote: »

I googled 'Clinton resting' and all I got was results on 'Clinton resting b*tch face', just curious where you read that?

Though sitting back and letting Trump continue his never-ending implosion probably is the easiest route to victory for her all the same! :pac:

In fact, she had cleared her schedule for the 5 or so days leading up to the debate for full on debate-prep. It would seem she wants to really put his campaign on ice. Unless he somehow came out *significantly* ahead of her after this debate, he doesn't even have a hail mary shot - and that's just the first step.

PopePalpatine · 19-10-2016 08:40PM

Finnley Quaint Wineglass wrote: »

PaddyPower paid out $1.1m already on HC backers, the thing is, DT's odds are shortening and he may well do very well tonight.

I'd say that's due more to punters wanting to bet on Trump in case his odds shorten in the case of a Clinton meltdown tonight.

CMOTDibbler · 19-10-2016 08:41PM

Billy86 wrote: »

I googled 'Clinton resting' and all I got was results on 'Clinton resting b*tch face', just curious where you read that?

Though sitting back and letting Trump continue his never-ending implosion probably is the easiest route to victory for her all the same! :pac:

Easier to just Google her itinerary.

She was at rallies and other events all over the country last week up until Friday when she appeared on the Ellen de Generes show. Done nothing since.

Concentrating on debate prep I'd imagine.

Billy86 · 19-10-2016 08:41PM

Not as easy a read as their presidential coverage, but RCP do have extensive stuff on the House & Senate too:

Senate:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/2016_elections_senate_map.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/senate/

House
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/house/2016_elections_house_map.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/house/

...and on the subject of RCP, Clinton has now for the first time taken the (very slim) lead over Trump in Arizona - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6087.html

4068ac1elhodqr · 19-10-2016 08:42PM

Billy86 wrote: »

I googled 'Clinton resting' and all I got was results on 'Clinton resting b*tch face', just curious where you read that?

Was either CNN/Sky/BBC that said 2weeks resting, probably the Kay Burley live broadcast today from LV.

The hinterweb says 'no public appearances' were scheduled for the last week (6 or 7 days). Hiding away for a whole week at this critical time seems a bit odd...

Overheal · 19-10-2016 08:45PM

Surprised PP paid out already. She can still be shot or something awful

4068ac1elhodqr · 19-10-2016 08:47PM

PopePalpatine wrote: »

I'd say that's due more to punters wanting to bet on Trump in case his odds shorten in the case of a Clinton meltdown tonight.

His odds have shortened (right across the board) by 15-20% in the last 24hrs, perhaps the bookies are worried HC has gone awol, or is having problems getting cryogenically defrosted or something.

Billy86 · 19-10-2016 08:49PM

Finnley Quaint Wineglass wrote: »

Was either CNN/Sky/BBC that said 2weeks resting, probably the Kay Burley live broadcast today from LV.

The hinterweb says 'no public appearances' were scheduled for the last week (6 or 7 days). Hiding away for a whole week at this critical time seems a bit odd...

Obligatory. And yes it's probably my 3rd or so time in this thread but... obligatory.

CMOTDibbler · 19-10-2016 08:58PM

Finnley Quaint Wineglass wrote: »

Was either CNN/Sky/BBC that said 2weeks resting, probably the Kay Burley live broadcast today from LV.

The hinterweb says 'no public appearances' were scheduled for the last week (6 or 7 days). Hiding away for a whole week at this critical time seems a bit odd...

Black Swan · 19-10-2016 09:00PM

frostyjacks wrote: »

She is a physical wreck, possibly pumped full of drugs for public appearances

Do you have any substantive support for these drug claims regarding Hillary Clinton, other than what you have heard coming out of Donald Trump's MOUTH from his political pulpit?

Does anyone find the timing of this Hillary Clinton drug unsubstantiated claim by Trump occurring after SNL, Seth Meyers Closer Look, et al, having made fun of Donald Trump's extraordinary sniffing during presidential debates 1 & 2?

ebbsy · 19-10-2016 09:07PM

Black Swan wrote: »

frostyjacks wrote: »

She is a physical wreck, possibly pumped full of drugs for public appearances

Do you have any substantive support for these drug claims regarding Hillary Clinton, other than what you have heard coming out of Donald Trump's MOUTH from his political pulpit?

Does anyone find the timing of this Hillary Clinton drug unsubstantiated claim by Trump occurring after SNL, Seth Meyers Closer Look, et al, having made fun of Donald Trump's extraordinary sniffing during presidential debates 1 & 2?

Hillary is taking something for sure, very few appearances and eyes glazed over when she does.

No wonder she was sitting down all the time in the 2nd debate.

oscarBravo · 19-10-2016 09:12PM

ebbsy wrote: »

Not as low as getting women to lie about sexual assaults.

I'd ask you for proof of that allegation, but you're not too keen on answering questions, so why bother?

alastair · 19-10-2016 09:17PM

Overheal wrote: »

Surprised PP paid out already. She can still be shot or something awful

She'd still win in that case - with a bigger majority.

CMOTDibbler · 19-10-2016 09:21PM

ebbsy wrote: »

Not as low as getting women to lie about sexual assaults.

If you can't back that up (and I know you can't), this is just mud slinging. Why do you bother? Nobody listens to unsubstantiated crap and even less people believe it.

btw, your definition of low needs revising. If you think that asking for a woman to be shot is not as low as asking someone to lie, then you have a strange set of morals.

Black Swan · 19-10-2016 09:26PM

21 minutes ago FiveThirtyEight's forecast shows Clinton's chance of winning 86.7% and Trump's 13.3%. These are updated daily, sometimes more frequently given the course of events occurring during the remaining 3 weeks before the presidential election. The forecast will more than likely be updated again hours following tonight's 3rd and last presidential debate. It's still possible that Trump could win, but the odds are very unfavourable this close to the 8 November 2016 election.

Of course, if you are a Trump supporter, you may wish to discount FiveThirtyEight's forecasts, because they do not favour your candidate, and if you have absolute and total faith in every word that comes out of Donald Trump's MOUTH, FiveThirtyEight might be considered a member of some Trump rumoured worldwide group that has been working collectively to rig or fix the election in each of the individual 50 states, DC, and territories so that he loses (through absolutely no fault of his own).

Brian? · 19-10-2016 09:27PM

ebbsy wrote: »

Hillary is taking something for sure, very few appearances and eyes glazed over when she does.

No wonder she was sitting down all the time in the 2nd debate.

That's absolute nonsense. There is zero evidence that she's "on something".

The reason she sat down so much was there were chairs provided. Trump looked like a mad man, pacing around while Hillary talked.

Sofa Spud · 19-10-2016 09:28PM

Anyone think that Bill's past indiscretions and Trump's current spate of accusations means they almost cancel each other out, leave both candidates vulnerable (regardless of how accurate or credible the smears are for both) and therefore they may both avoid going too heavy on each other in bringing up sleaze in the debate tonight?

ebbsy · 19-10-2016 09:30PM

It's hard to believe there are actually people out there who think he is going to build a wall.

Jan_de_Bakker · 19-10-2016 09:30PM

Sofa Spud wrote: »

It's a cliche at this point, but he's just a narcissist that never thought he'd get this far, never wanted to govern - as illustrated by Kasich leaking that Trump jr approached him about the VP job, saying he would have control over the administration while Trump just focused on the 'making America great again' stuff -and now that he's losing, he had to make it look like he's being cheated to protect his fragile ego. The scary bit is that a lot of people will believe him and will feel cheated when he looses, so Hill will inherit a nation that is more divided than ever before, and Trump does not care. Worse than that, it looks like he's not even self aware of the damage he's doing. He seems incapable of understanding the impact he's having. Who would like to bet that he'll give a gracious and unequivocal concession speech?

I think he will, he'll get the digs in on Twitter after tho ..

Still hope he wins...

ancapailldorcha · 19-10-2016 09:32PM

Ebbsy banned for 2 days.

Sofa Spud · 19-10-2016 09:33PM

ebbsy wrote: »

It's hard to believe there are actually people out there who think he is going to build a wall.

Anyone notice that he's not mentioning the wall as much lately?

CMOTDibbler · 19-10-2016 09:33PM

Black Swan wrote: »

21 minutes ago FiveThirtyEight's forecast shows Clinton's chance of winning 86.7% and Trump's 13.3%. These are updated daily, sometimes more frequently given the course of events occurring during the remaining 3 weeks before the presidential election. The forecast will more than likely be updated again hours following tonight's 3rd and last presidential debate. It's still possible that Trump could win, but the odds are very unfavourable this close to the 8 November 2016 election.

Of course, if you are a Trump supporter, you may wish to discount FiveThirtyEight's forecasts, because they do not favour your candidate, and if you have absolute and total faith in every word that comes out of Donald Trump's MOUTH, FiveThirtyEight might be considered a member of some Trump rumoured worldwide group that has been working collectively to rig or fix the election in each of the individual 50 states, DC, and territories so that he loses (through absolutely no fault of his own).

They get updated every time a new poll is published. Before the latest adjustment it was 86% based on a TIPP poll and before that it was 88.1%. A Quinnpac poll that gave Clinton a 7 point lead has led to the latest adjustment.

4068ac1elhodqr · 19-10-2016 09:35PM

Wouldn't over rely on Poll data, as it didn't fair too well for some folks during the Brexit recently, nor the UK general elections before that.

Only around 4hrs for the entertainment show to start, predict i) DT will sniffle a fair bit, and ii) HC will sit down a fair bit.

CMOTDibbler · 19-10-2016 09:35PM

Sofa Spud wrote: »

Anyone notice that he's not mentioning the wall as much lately?

I presume it's still on his website. I haven't looked because I just had a shower, but it would be some turnabout if it wasn't.

Overheal · 19-10-2016 09:38PM

Finnley Quaint Wineglass wrote: »

Wouldn't over rely on Poll data, as it didn't fair too well for some folks during the Brexit recently, nor the UK general elections before that.

FiveThirtyEight is a US political statistic modeling site. It accurately called the 2008 election 49/50 states and the 2012 election 50/50 states. It's a bit more than polling it's politics with calculus and actuarial science applied.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight

alastair · 19-10-2016 09:43PM

Sofa Spud wrote: »

Anyone think that Bill's past indiscretions and Trump's current spate of accusations means they almost cancel each other out, leave both candidates vulnerable (regardless of how accurate or credible the smears are for both) and therefore they may both avoid going too heavy on each other in bringing up sleaze in the debate tonight?

Most people are savvy enough to understand Hillary isn't responsible for Bill's choices. Never mind that the electorate made up their mind on Bill's morals and their application to the job on offer in 1996. Slick Willy for all his failings however never made any admission that sexual assault was a part of his 'indiscretions' - and any claims made against him in that regard have been unconvincing. Bill seems to have no difficulty in finding willing partners in his dalliances. Trump has implicated himself in unwanted sexual assault, so it's kind of hard to dispute that's part and parcel of how he treats women. Lots of sleaze on both sides, but Bill's record appears to be rather more about consensual activities. It's telling that Bill's presidential favourability ratings ended higher than where he started off - after all the Lewinsky saga and the impeachment - whereas Trump's polling figures nosedived on the back of his hot mic revelations.

2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

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