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2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

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Comments

  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,060 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    See that Obama's half brother will be at the debate. Imagine the third debate will be a bit tamer versus the second one.

    http://time.com/4536121/malik-obama-donald-trump-third-debate/

    I doubt it..

    The format is 6X15 minute segments around 6 questions/topics
    • Debt and entitlements
    • Immigration
    • Economy
    • Supreme Court
    • Foreign hot spots
    • Fitness to be president.

    Given that Trump has invited Obamas step-brother and the Mother of one of the Benghazi victims, one can only assume that Trump is going to aim lower than anyone thought possible in those final sections..

    The Trump pandering to his base on topics like Immigration and the Supreme Court (Hillary wants your guns people!!!) will get pretty grim..

    But he could really sink to new depths if given free rein on the last 2.. I've no doubt Hillary will also scrape along the bottom on the "Fitness to be President" one but either way I think most normal people are going to be left feeling pretty grimy after this one...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,262 ✭✭✭ebbsy


    Obama had a few words to say today about Trump's whining:


    He's doing a great job in Syria.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,262 ✭✭✭ebbsy


    96% of campaign donations from journalists have gone to Hillary.

    https://www.publicintegrity.org/2016/10/17/20330/journalists-shower-hillary-clinton-campaign-cash

    If we don't have an impartial media, then we don't have a fair election. The whole process has lifted the lid on the globalist cabal who are intent on subverting our western, Christian society. They must be stopped, and Trump is the man to stop them.

    Thank god somebody talking the truth.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,343 ✭✭✭dwayneshintzy


    Imagine the third debate will be a bit tamer versus the second one./
    Why w0ould you think that? It was in Trump's interest to tone things down previously, and he couldn't help himself. It's far too far gone now to even matter, not a hope he stays calm, reasoned or in any way "tame".


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,309 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    Given that Trump has invited Obamas step-brother and the Mother of one of the Benghazi victims, one can only assume that Trump is going to aim lower than anyone thought possible in those final sections.

    He got precisely zero traction out of rolling out the Bill wimmin last time round, so it looks like no lessons learned there. Obama's half brother isn't really going to provide much of a critique of the Hillary ticket, and if he's known for anything (debatable) it's his differences with Obama (who's not running). I can see his empathy for Trump though - both having married three wives, albeit only one of them in a polygamous context (that's going to go down well with the GOP base!).

    The Republicans have tried long and hard to pin anything on Hillary for Benghazi, without any success, so that's unlikely to change now - particularly since making a compelling case for State Dept responsibility for the deaths in Benghazi would involve an involved, articulate argument, without diversion off into red herring territory, or shilling the Trump brand. He's not the man for that job - "Believe me!"

    I think Trump is going to be his usual clusterf**k in this debate, and all Hillary needs to do is ride this out and let Trump further bury Trump's candidacy. He's certainly not looking any less unhinged in the last few days, so expect more of the same.


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  • Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,859 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    ebbsy wrote: »
    Thank god somebody talking the truth.

    I'll ask you the same question, since frosty isn't too fond of answering them: how will Trump stop the "globalist cabal"?


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,060 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    alastair wrote: »
    He got precisely zero traction out of rolling out the Bill wimmin last time round, so it looks like no lessons learned there. Obama's half brother isn't really going to provide much of a critique of the Hillary ticket, and if he's known for anything (debatable) it's his differences with Obama (who's not running).

    The Republicans have tried long and hard to pin anything on Hillary for Benghazi, without any success, so that's unlikely to change now - particularly since making a compelling case for State Dept responsibility for the deaths in Benghazi would involve an involved, articulate argument, without diversion off into red herring territory, or shilling the Trump brand. He's not the man for that job - "Believe me!"

    I think Trump is going to be his usual clusterf**k in this debate, and all Hillary needs to do is ride this out and let Trump further bury Trump's candidacy. He's certainly not looking any less unhinged in the last few days, so expect more of the same.

    I'd tend to agree.

    No idea what the "plans" behind those invites are to be honest. He obviously intends to make reference to their presence , but Clinton has shown that there's really very little that will phase her in this kind of environment so I fail to see the point.

    I think it's beyond doubt that the full on raving conspiracy theorist version of Trump will be on display this evening , the unsubstantiated diatribes on Immigration , the future of the Supreme court will be fairly spectacular..

    His base will adore him for it , but he'll do absolutely nothing to change a single persons mind towards him (or even away from Clinton to 3rd party)


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,060 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Interesting Article on RCP about the polls

    Basically saying that statistical analysis of polling data for the last 50 years or so shows that the window for Trump to come back is closing fast , if not already closed.

    384502_5.jpg
    Trump Is Missing His Benchmarks

    Past polling data shows that three weeks out from the election, polls usually don’t move more than 3.4 points toward either candidate. Clinton leads Trump by 5.5 points in the RealClearPolitics two-way national average and by 5.7 points in the four-way national average (which includes third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein). Even if Trump moved the polls by about three points in his direction (which isn’t guaranteed, since Clinton could add about three points to her margin) Clinton would still have a two- to three-point national lead heading into Election Day. In that case, the smart money would be on her.
    It’s important to note that these benchmarks aren’t ironclad laws. Something unexpected could happen (e.g. Trump could shake off the new sexual assault allegations, have a great final debate performance and find some new damaging piece of information related to Clinton’s emails) that allows the Republican to make up ground faster than the majority of his predecessors. But Trump win scenarios often involve nearly every significant event over the next three weeks breaking his way, which is possible but not the most likely outcome.
    .


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,495 ✭✭✭✭Billy86


    What is really going to be interesting about tonight is FOX. On one hand, they are FOX, on the other this is a presidential debate and not am hour with Hannity or O'Reilly. But then in the other hand, it is a Clinton... and this is FOX! But the on the other, Trump has completely burned bridges with them which cost cost him what may have (only saying MAY HAVE...) been an incredibly biased debate which has never been seen before in the US despite the Trumpeteers claims to the contrary over the last two.

    As for the debate itself, meh. It won't make much difference. This election has been finished for weeks.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,495 ✭✭✭✭Billy86


    A lesson about crossing John McCain in Arizona, when you've already done so pathetically as to turn it into a toss up state...

    CLINTON NOW +5 IN ARIZONA - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6087.html


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,980 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    Billy86 wrote: »
    What is really going to be interesting about tonight is FOX. On one hand, they are FOX, on the other this is a presidential debate and not am hour with Hannity or O'Reilly. But then in the other hand, it is a Clinton... and this is FOX! But the on the other, Trump has completely burned bridges with them which cost cost him what may have (only saying MAY HAVE...) been an incredibly biased debate which has never been seen before in the US despite the Trumpeteers claims to the contrary over the last two.

    As for the debate itself, meh. It won't make much difference. This election has been finished for weeks.


    Chris Wallace is far more moderate than Hannity or O'Reilly and I don't think he has any love for Trump.

    Still though it is FOX so expect far more questions on emails, Benghazi etc than the first two debates.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Thing is if anything is in the emails, the Clinton campaign already knows what they might be and is prepared to defend them.

    In contrast when Trump was urged to do his own self-opposition research, for whatever reason he refused to do so. Then the sexual assault fiasco happened and his campaign was completely off guard.

    The other thing about statistical swing is, it goes both ways. He could just as easily poll high and then lose yuuuge. The outlying models show that, statistically speaking, there's a chance at the current trend that he could completely blow this thing, and give Hillary close to 400 electoral votes. Though most models have him getting up to 200.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/arizona/

    In the 538 model over the last few weeks Trump has seen his odds of winning AZ go from 70% to 40%. It's also not the first time the model predicted Arizona would be a swing state.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭Sofa Spud


    Agreed, Wallace is definitely from the more 'saner' side of Fox and is seen as being from the old school of actual journalism (previously anchored Meet the Press and NBC Nightly News among others) and thereby gives Fox some semblance of credibility, as opposed to the opinion led mini-demagogues of Irish extraction that fills their prime time slots. He did say his role was not to fact check, but my guess is that he'll probably focus on giving equal time to the candidates and fact-checking in this post-reality election is probably useless anyway....


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,403 ✭✭✭Jan_de_Bakker


    Pity Trump is being so petty at this stage, wail rigged election all you want when (if) you lose, but not now ... the race is still on !!


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    Pity Trump is being so petty at this stage [...]
    Hardly surprising since Trump doesn't have any style beyond petty.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭Sofa Spud


    It's a cliche at this point, but he's just a narcissist that never thought he'd get this far, never wanted to govern - as illustrated by Kasich leaking that Trump jr approached him about the VP job, saying he would have control over the administration while Trump just focused on the 'making America great again' stuff -and now that he's losing, he had to make it look like he's being cheated to protect his fragile ego. The scary bit is that a lot of people will believe him and will feel cheated when he looses, so Hill will inherit a nation that is more divided than ever before, and Trump does not care. Worse than that, it looks like he's not even self aware of the damage he's doing. He seems incapable of understanding the impact he's having. Who would like to bet that he'll give a gracious and unequivocal concession speech?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,980 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    Billy86 wrote: »
    A lesson about crossing John McCain in Arizona, when you've already done so pathetically as to turn it into a toss up state...

    CLINTON NOW +5 IN ARIZONA - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6087.html


    McCain is political royalty in Arizona. Trumps comments towards him and McCains un-endorsement obviously hurting Trump in a big red state.

    McMullin for Arizona!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,980 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    Sofa Spud wrote: »
    Who would like to bet that he'll give a gracious and unequivocal concession speech?

    Would not be surprised if there was no concession speech, or a phone call from the defeated candidate to the winner on the night.

    Did they shake hands at the second debate? Don't remember them doing it when they walked out.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭Sofa Spud


    They had a luke warm handshake at the end, but yeah, nothing at the beginning - would guess that they will tonight - their teams will make sure of it - I think it only (or didn't) happened the last time as they were both on edge, not sure it was deliberate on either part....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,758 ✭✭✭Laois_Man


    TheDoctor wrote: »
    Did they shake hands at the second debate? Don't remember them doing it when they walked out.

    Not at the start, but they did at the end.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭Anatom


    TheDoctor wrote: »
    Would not be surprised if there was no concession speech, or a phone call from the defeated candidate to the winner on the night.

    Did they shake hands at the second debate? Don't remember them doing it when they walked out.

    They didn't at the beginning, but they did shake hands at the end. They had just had the "what's a nice thing about your opponent" question a little before the end, so tensions had lessened somewhat.

    I think tonight will go one of two ways;
    1) A civilised, issues-based debate, which will follow the agreed format, in which Clinton will easily cope with any questions which will come up (The list of the topics was a few posts earlier) and in which Donald will attempt to portray himself in a professional manner.
    2) Trump will obfuscate, bluster and deflect, as he has done in every media encounter and both debates, in order to avoid giving specific answers to specific questions.

    I know which way I think its going to go...!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,309 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    Sofa Spud wrote: »
    Who would like to bet that he'll give a gracious and unequivocal concession speech?

    I reckon he will. I'd be less sure that he wouldn't subsequently revert back to the whinging though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭Sofa Spud


    Alaistair, I think you could be right - he'll do it for the sake of formality - i.e. because he's told he has to - and then will be back on Twitter come 3 am...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,309 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    Sofa Spud wrote: »
    Alaistair, I think you could be right - he'll do it for the sake of formality - i.e. because he's told he has to - and then will be back on Twitter come 3 am...

    He'll focus on a post-election twitter campaign against Alec Baldwin first - priorities.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,116 ✭✭✭Trent Houseboat


    Pity Trump is being so petty at this stage, wail rigged election all you want when (if) you lose, but not now ... the race is still on !!
    In fairness he's been say that it's rigged for months. And it's been standard Republican fare to complain about voter fraud for the past decade. It's been an obvious attempt to supress votes among minorities and the poor. Republicans know that there has been no voter fraud, they just don't like the votes being cast so they cry fraud. The lie rattled around the Alt Right echo chamber long enough that people actually began to believe it.

    The same echo chamber that thinks Clinton is next to death's door, so much so that when the rumours of her demise were put to rest by actually acting like human throughout the first two debates, the only logical conclusion was that she was doped. And it was logical based on the "facts" available to these people. Wait for the "fact" that Clinton is an abuser of drugs to be trotted out sometime soon.
    The same echo chamber that believes the polls are skewed and that the media is biased against them. So that when the results come out on (2)9th November, if Trump isn't declared the winner, facts would lead you to believe that the election was rigged.

    The Republican party has allowed a lunatic fringe to take over.
    The outcome of the post-mortem after the last presidential loss was that they relied too much on whites and men. If they lose this election, it looks as though they'll have burned all other bridges but white and men.

    I fail to see what bringing Malik Obama to tonight's debate is supposed to achieve other than show that Trump has at least one black supporter. Maybe if he was debating Barack Obama that might have some effect but, despite Alex Jones' (one of the great amplifiers in the above mentioned echo chamber) predictions, Barack isn't running for a third term(on a personal level I'd like to see someone who speaks was well as Barack Obama debate someone was unhinged as Trump).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,830 ✭✭✭CMOTDibbler


    I fail to see what bringing Malik Obama to tonight's debate is supposed to achieve other than show that Trump has at least one black supporter. Maybe if he was debating Barack Obama that might have some effect but, despite Alex Jones' (one of the great amplifiers in the above mentioned echo chamber) predictions, Barack isn't running for a third term(on a personal level I'd like to see someone who speaks was well as Barack Obama debate someone was unhinged as Trump).
    The Malik Obama stunt is two-pronged. Malik has said on the record that he thinks Trump sounds good; "says it like it is" ;) (not sure how long ago though) and because Obama had the temerity to call him a whiner in his speech yesterday.

    Trump still can't take criticism apparently.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭Sofa Spud


    The really scary part about the Republicans crying fowl of rigged elections is the deliberate misdirection from their attack on voting rights. I believe some of the voter ID laws that they introduced at State level have been deemed unconstitutional, but a lot are still in place - the fact there seems to be no discussion about that in the media over there speaks volumes, and I am not talking about some tinfoil hat cover up - just that it's not picked up by the media as it's boring and nuanced, it requires too much discussion and factual understanding and can't be diluted down into an easy soundbite or twitter quote....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,116 ✭✭✭Trent Houseboat


    Right, I know that Malik is a Trump supporter, I just don't get what bringing him achieves. Aside from providing a photo opportunity of Donald shaking a black man's hand.

    And I get the feeling that the I'll die before I understand how the man who rambles and breaks from one thought to another couched constantly in weasel words, who needs Rudi Guiliani to be on television 24/7 just to explain what it is he really meant to say, before doubling down on his own nonsense talk is the one believed to "Say it like it is"


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,313 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Billy86 wrote: »
    A lesson about crossing John McCain in Arizona, when you've already done so pathetically as to turn it into a toss up state...

    CLINTON NOW +5 IN ARIZONA - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6087.html

    Trump is the antithesis of McCain.

    McCain rightly tried to calm down the nuttier elements in the GOP in 08, remember him admonishing a woman for his comments about Obama being a Muslim, threat to the country etc.?

    Trump sees these people as his base and is actively counting them.

    He has set back race relations 50 years by courting these people as he has legitimized this stuff in their eyes.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,313 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Sofa Spud wrote: »
    Agreed, Wallace is definitely from the more 'saner' side of Fox and is seen as being from the old school of actual journalism (previously anchored Meet the Press and NBC Nightly News among others) and thereby gives Fox some semblance of credibility, as opposed to the opinion led mini-demagogues of Irish extraction that fills their prime time slots. He did say his role was not to fact check, but my guess is that he'll probably focus on giving equal time to the candidates and fact-checking in this post-reality election is probably useless anyway....

    He did try and take on Trump in the primaries with facts and questions and stuff but as you say, pretty pointless.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



This discussion has been closed.
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