Dublin GAA Discussion Thread MOD WARNING POST #2944

BonnieSituation · 07-09-2016 01:44AM

The Talking Bread wrote: »

few tables here re free taking I seen a while back

Conversion Rates

The below table shows the Conversion Rates for any player with a minimum of 30 recorded deadball attempts over the last four Championships

Player Shots Scores Conversion Rate
D Rock (Dublin) 33 28 85%
C McManus (Monaghan) 48 39 81%
C O’Connor (Mayo) 112 90 80%
B Brogan (Dublin) 49 38 78%
C McFadden (Donegal) 54 41 76%
D McCurry (Tyrone) 39 27 69%
M Murphy (Donegal) 85 57 67%
M Newman (Meath) 39 26 67%
E O’Flaherty (Kildare) 36 24 67%
B Sheehan (Kerry) 41 25 61%
S Cluxton (Dublin) 56 31 55%

Expected Points

By dividing the pitch into segments, and using the results of well over 1,400 attempts, we are able to show what percentage of deadballs are scored per segment. We use this percentage to create an Expected Points (Exp Pts) return – along the lines of Expected Goals for soccer – for every attempt. So if a free from a specific area is converted 60% of the time the Exp Pts = 0.6pts. Doing this for every deadball attempt then allows us to compare players on a more equal footing.

1.Player 2.Shots 3.Scores 4.Conversion Rate 5.Conversion Rate Rank 5.Total Pts above Expected
1. 2. 3. 4 5. 6.
C O’Connor 112 90 80% 3 +7.4
C McFadden 54 41 76% 5 +6.1
M Murphy 85 57 67% 7 +4.2
C McManus 48 39 81% 2 +4.0
D Rock 33 28 85% 1 +3.7
S Cluxton 56 31 55% 11 +2.1
B Sheehan 41 25 61% 10 +0.9
M Newman 39 26 67% 8 +0.7
D McCurry 39 27 69% 6 -0.3
B Brogan 49 38 78% 4 -2.2
E O’Flaherty 36 24 67% 9 -4.1

Re COC:

One of the more noticeable aspects of the Exp Pts table is how Cillian O’Connor & Michael Murphy rise to the top. The argument can be made that the more attempts you have the easier it is to build up an Exp Pts tally – that of course ignores that the opposite is also true. The more attempts you have the greater the opportunity to regress to the mean.

That O’Connor has maintained such standards across multiple Championships is a remarkable feat. Even more so when you consider that the methodology does not account for the majority of his attempts occurring in high pressure games (Provincial finals, All Ireland semi-finals & finals) whilst also being a load bearing totem. He has taken 76% of Mayo’s deadball attempts switching from the left to the right as well as taking high pressure penalties and the majority of Mayo’s 45s.

O’Connor’s consistency is beyond reproach and it is this, alloyed to his proven accuracy, that surely gives him the title of “the best free taker”.

Interesting analysis all round but every day is different!

https://dontfoul.wordpress.com/tag/cillian-oconnor/

Is the +7.4 for COC then assumed to be a bonus? ie. giving him 87.4 for difficulty of shots factored in?

So the table should read:

D Rock 88.70
C O’Connor 87.40
C McManus 85.00
C McFadden 82.10
B Brogan 75.80
M Murphy 71.20
D McCurry 68.70
M Newman 67.70
E O’Flaherty 62.90
B Sheehan 61.90
S Cluxton 57.10

---

It's late and that could be a complete misinterpretation of the stats there but I'm not sure what value "+7.4" etc has in the grand scheme outside of the significance of the numbers in comparison to each other.

---
All in all that is some serious analysis though. And I am shocked at Sheehan's success rate. Maybe shocked is a bit much but with him being acknowledged "the best in the game" in some quarters, it really does call into question the opinions of some.

The Talking Bread · 07-09-2016 01:57AM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Is the +7.4 for COC then assumed to be a bonus? ie. giving him 87.4 for difficulty of shots factored in?

So the table should read:

D Rock 88.70
C O’Connor 87.40
C McManus 85.00
C McFadden 82.10
B Brogan 75.80
M Murphy 71.20
D McCurry 68.70
M Newman 67.70
E O’Flaherty 62.90
B Sheehan 61.90
S Cluxton 57.10

---

It's late and that could be a complete misinterpretation of the stats there but I'm not sure what value "+7.4" etc has in the grand scheme outside of the significance of the numbers in comparison to each other.

---
All in all that is some serious analysis though. And I am shocked at Sheehan's success rate. Maybe shocked is a bit much but with him being acknowledged "the best in the game" in some quarters, it really does call into question the opinions of some.

No, there are 6 different segments for each player in the second table, namely :
1.Player
2.Shots
3.Scores
4.Conversion Rate
5.Conversion Rate Rank
6.Total Pts above Expected

so for example
1.C O’Connor
2. 112 shots
3. 90 (scores)
4. 80% Conversion rate
5. 3 - Conversion Rate Ranking On List
6. +7.4 - total points above expected

corny · 07-09-2016 03:37AM

The Talking Bread wrote: »

Re COC:

One of the more noticeable aspects of the Exp Pts table is how Cillian O’Connor & Michael Murphy rise to the top. The argument can be made that the more attempts you have the easier it is to build up an Exp Pts tally – that of course ignores that the opposite is also true. The more attempts you have the greater the opportunity to regress to the mean.

That seems a bit of a weak rebuttal to me. We're not dealing with an enormous sample size so regression to the mean.....not having it.

If O' Connor has taken more than three times as many frees as Rock in these segments then his score should be three times that of Rock no? I take the point his consistency is worthy of great praise but surely an average of the Pts above Expected would give an even more balanced view?

Not much between the top fellas either way imo.

07-09-2016 08:09AM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Is the +7.4 for COC then assumed to be a bonus? ie. giving him 87.4 for difficulty of shots factored in?

It's late and that could be a complete misinterpretation of the stats there but I'm not sure what value "+7.4" etc has in the grand scheme outside of the significance of the numbers in comparison to each other.

@dontfoul weights shots depending on where they are taken from and the average success rate of that shot from that sector of the pitch (also weighted as dead ball v open play).

So, by way of massive oversimplification, if the average player taking a free from directly in front of the post will score 85% of the time and Dean Rock scores 91 frees from that sector out of 100 attempts then his Points above Exp. would be +6.

He has a good explainer of it here.

At its most basic level you look at where the player shoots from and you weight how many points he scores against how many points you would expect the hypothetical average player to score from the same positions.

CatInABox · 07-09-2016 08:48AM

The Talking Bread wrote: »

Player |Shots| Scores |Conversion Rate
D Rock (Dublin) |33 |28 |85%
C McManus (Monaghan) |48 |39 |81%
C O’Connor (Mayo) |112 |90 |80%
B Brogan (Dublin) |49 |38 |78%
C McFadden (Donegal) |54 |41 |76%
D McCurry (Tyrone) |39 |27 |69%
M Murphy (Donegal) |85 |57 |67%
M Newman (Meath) |39 |26 |67%
E O’Flaherty (Kildare) |36 |24 |67%
B Sheehan (Kerry) |41 |25 |61%
S Cluxton (Dublin) |56 |31 |55%

Player |Shots |Scores |Conversion Rate |Conversion Rate Rank |Total Pts above Expected
C O’Connor |112 |90 |80% |3 |+7.4
C McFadden |54 |41 |76% |5 |+6.1
M Murphy |85 |57 |67% |7 |+4.2
C McManus |48 |39 |81% | 2 |+4.0
D Rock |33 |28 |85% | 1 |+3.7
S Cluxton |56 |31 |55% |11 |+2.1
B Sheehan |41 |25 |61% |10 |+0.9
M Newman |39 |26 |67% |8 |+0.7
D McCurry |39 |27 |69% |6 | -0.3
B Brogan |49 |38 |78% |4 | -2.2
E O’Flaherty |36 |24 |67% |9 | -4.1

As I've got OCD, and literally couldn't read those tables without a headache, I've whacked them into proper tables.

Interesting reading, thanks.

DoctaDee · 07-09-2016 12:47PM

FYI

The Dublin segment of Irish TV's build up to the AI - "Mad for Sam" takes pace in Fingallians GAA on 15th Sept

For anyone interested

Menoetius · 07-09-2016 02:01PM

DoctaDee wrote: »

FYI

The Dublin segment of Irish TV's build up to the AI - "Mad for Sam" takes pace in Fingallians GAA on 15th Sept

For anyone interested

Irish TV ?? Is that the channel that does the likes of "Leitrim county matters" ?

ProudDUB · 07-09-2016 02:22PM

Yep. And Susan and Malachy's Country Hour. I'm still a bit shook. :eek:

DoctaDee · 07-09-2016 02:24PM

Menoetius wrote: »

Irish TV ?? Is that the channel that does the likes of "Leitrim county matters" ?

Yeah thinks it's a Mayo based station, with an eye on rural aspects .. must send them up to Wild Geese in Oldtown

Menoetius · 07-09-2016 03:22PM

ProudDUB wrote: »

Yep. And Susan and Malachy's Country Hour. I'm still a bit shook. :eek:

:D:D

ProudDUB · 07-09-2016 04:13PM

DoctaDee wrote: »

Yeah thinks it's a Mayo based station, with an eye on rural aspects .. must send them up to Wild Geese in Oldtown

They wouldn't last 5 minutes if you sent them to Man O'War.

Dyr · 07-09-2016 04:28PM

ProudDUB wrote: »

They wouldn't last 5 minutes if you sent them to Man O'War.

That name always cracks me up

seligehgit · 07-09-2016 05:15PM

Slattsy wrote: »

Dean Rock will kick every soft free we get.

COC wont kick every soft free they get.

Advantage Dublin there

Dean Rock has been the standout free taker this year whilst Cillian O Connor has been well below par although improving.Although I would argue with no bit of bias

that Cillian has been the most consistent free taker in the country since 2012.

Slattsy · 07-09-2016 05:23PM

seligehgit wrote: »

Dean Rock has been the standout free taker this year whilst Cillian O Connor has been well below par although improving.Although I would argue with no bit of bias that Cillian has been the most consistent free taker in the country since 2012.

To be honest, and I know some stats were posted earlier.. (he is very good from a dead ball) I was specifically talking about this year.

I've seen him miss a few in every game I've seen that you'd normally expect him to stick over.

The Talking Bread · 07-09-2016 05:41PM

Slattsy wrote: »

To be honest, and I know some stats were posted earlier.. (he is very good from a dead ball) I was specifically talking about this year.

I've seen him miss a few in every game I've seen that you'd normally expect him to stick over.

really? May have missed a few over the 6 games but to say he has missed a few every game is a tad over the top.

Missed a crucial one from 35 metres against Galway and I remember him missing one against Westmeath but no more really that you would have put your house on him scoring

The Talking Bread · 07-09-2016 08:17PM

JohnMcgee32 wrote: »

Irish Gaa Banter Page on facebook has x2 tickets for the Cusack

of course they do...................

Stoner · 07-09-2016 11:47PM

seligehgit wrote:

Dean Rock has been the standout free taker this year whilst Cillian O Connor has been well below par although improving.Although I would argue with no bit of bias that Cillian has been the most consistent free taker in the country since 2012.

I posted something similar but it didn't stick.

PressRun · 07-09-2016 11:59PM

seligehgit wrote: »

Dean Rock has been the standout free taker this year whilst Cillian O Connor has been well below par although improving.Although I would argue with no bit of bias that Cillian has been the most consistent free taker in the country since 2012.

Tbh, I think the fact that people are taking note of Cillian's misses from frees this year speaks to his reliability and consistency as a free-taker over the last number of years. If he has a low conversion rate, it stands out precisely because it's unexpected. He has been the best free-taker in the country for the last few years, which makes it all the more noticeable if there's a dip in accuracy.

Slattsy · 08-09-2016 11:13AM

PressRun wrote: »

Tbh, I think the fact that people are taking note of Cillian's misses from frees this year speaks to his reliability and consistency as a free-taker over the last number of years. If he has a low conversion rate, it stands out precisely because it's unexpected. He has been the best free-taker in the country for the last few years, which makes it all the more noticeable if there's a dip in accuracy.

Conor McManus - not even a contest.

seligehgit · 08-09-2016 11:31AM

Slattsy wrote: »

Conor McManus - not even a contest.

Totally forgot about Conor McManus,I'd agree he's the best in the business.I'd rate him the most complete footballer in the country..carries the Monaghan forward line to a large extent.Oftentimes treble marked and gets dogs of abuse.He'd walk on to any team and if he were on a Dublin or Kerry team he'd be getting greater recognition,plaudits...We'd love to have him for Sunday week.Bit off his game this year.Conversion rate in the championship was down from frees,sublime though in league game against Dublin.

To say it's not even a contest..there's little between Cillian O Connor and Conor McManus in terms of freetaking although either have set the world on fire this year in terms of the championship conversion rates.

Nidgeweasel · 08-09-2016 02:20PM

Slattsy wrote: »

Conor McManus - not even a contest.

Murphy and Sheehan have more strings to the bow.

seligehgit wrote: »

I'd rate him the most complete footballer in the country

Don't think you can say that. The best forward perhaps, not the most complete footballer. Can't imagine him controlling a game centrally or having to put out fires in the middle. Connolly is by far a more complete footballer, as is Michael Murphy. You could even make the case for Aidan O'Se such is his adaptability.

We're in the realms of fairly refined criticism here generally though with Rock v O'Connor etc.

PressRun · 08-09-2016 03:11PM

Slattsy wrote: »

PressRun wrote: »

Tbh, I think the fact that people are taking note of Cillian's misses from frees this year speaks to his reliability and consistency as a free-taker over the last number of years. If he has a low conversion rate, it stands out precisely because it's unexpected. He has been the best free-taker in the country for the last few years, which makes it all the more noticeable if there's a dip in accuracy.

Conor McManus - not even a contest.

Conor McManus is a great footballer, but he is not the best free taker in the country.

gormdubhgorm · 08-09-2016 04:40PM

Slattsy wrote: »

Conor McManus - not even a contest.

Byran Sheehan is a better free taker.

McManus a better all round player though.

corny · 08-09-2016 04:44PM

Saw this on twitter. Virtually guaranteed when when the angle isn't too oblique. Amazing form this year.

Cr1RwsSWAAApdz0.jpg:large

Slattsy · 08-09-2016 05:03PM

Rock (on his form this year) aside, I'd take McManus over the rest, all day long.

The Talking Bread · 08-09-2016 05:03PM

corny wrote: »

Saw this on twitter. Virtually guaranteed when when the angle isn't too oblique. Amazing form this year.

O Connor (this was compiled in a two year period to 2014, albeit)

Cant find any recent ones

Since then he improved a lot and bar a few misses this year (which I would consider incidental more than reflection of his form, ) he is still the more reliant in my opinion. All comes down to the day and Dublin wont get as many frees in front of the posts as they do against Leinster teams. Its also a lot easier to nail a free in Croke Park than it is in a smaller stadium with weather factors

x = missed, disc = score,black = free, white = 45

oconnor14.jpg?w=450&h=422

gormdubhgorm · 08-09-2016 10:37PM

The worst part is I remember seen Dean Rock in the u21 football final back in 2010 and I was wondering what all the fuss was about he was very inconsistent on his frees. He will never cut it I said!

Roll on six years and he cannot be doing much better on his frees and his all round play has improved.

Barney himself has said that Dean is a better all round player then he was, but he considers them fairly equal on the frees

The Talking Bread · 08-09-2016 10:45PM

The Talking Bread wrote: »

O Connor (this was compiled in a two year period to 2014, albeit)

Cant find any recent ones

Since then he improved a lot and bar a few misses this year (which I would consider incidental more than reflection of his form, ) he is still the more reliant in my opinion. All comes down to the day and Dublin wont get as many frees in front of the posts as they do against Leinster teams. Its also a lot easier to nail a free in Croke Park than it is in a smaller stadium with weather factors

x = missed, disc = score,black = free, white = 45

I am just trying to figure that miss (x) right in front of the goals! Must have been a last minute attempt to get a goal when 2 or three points down with few minutes left (although we all remember him taking a point with 30 seconds to go a few years back in 2013 against Dublin when 2 points down)

ProudDUB · 09-09-2016 10:28PM

Bambi wrote: »

That name always cracks me up

2014 Mod of The Year Annual Award Show, no?

Left to Right: Stoner, (no real surprise there,) DoctaDee, (a dizzy blonde, who woulda thunk?) rebel girl 15 (she hides that hairy chest well, doesn't she?) and yop. Typical Mayo man about town, sporting a Village People 'tache from 1979.

Those free stats are very interesting. I'm thrilled for Deano that his contributions from play this year have skyrocketed. It's not just about the pts and goals from play, but he is just so much more involved over all. It's great to see. I really think that his jersey may have been under threat this year, if he hadn't stepped it up. An 85% conversion rate is great, but Berno's is a "mere" 78%. The 7% difference doesn't really warrant carrying a player, who doesn't contribute much from play. But he has definitely earned the jersey this year & not just for the frees.

DoctaDee · 09-09-2016 11:25PM

Just got a flashback to The Grove and Cecil Nolan doing his thing

Have to say I'm jealous of Stoner's hair...that man knows conditioner

Dublin GAA Discussion Thread MOD WARNING POST #2944

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