Price Changes 2016/2017 - OP updated 15/12/16

km79 · 04-09-2016 11:43PM

Aguero at 100
Townsend at 100.1
Let's see what happens

Manutd_4life · 04-09-2016 11:46PM

Is now the time to get rid of Aguero??

I only have 1 Ft with Gray also in the squad. I'm kinda stalling at the moment

iroced · 05-09-2016 02:42AM

Aguero, Carroll & Mendy down.
Sanchez up!

Townsend held!

FHFC · 05-09-2016 02:53AM

FHFC wrote: »

Huge difference between both sites on Aguero. Fix have him at around 81% and >2d to rise.

Stats have him at over 99% and said on twitter earlier that he may drop tonight.

1-0 to Fpls.

machiavellianme · 05-09-2016 07:15AM

iroced wrote: »

Sorry but I fail to get the comparison...

Also you're "comparing" a priori info with a posteriori stuff.

It's the exact same thing. Price changes dictate your squad value and are typically driven by form and points returns. For some of us, having the most expensive team is the reason we play. If everyone knows how much much each player will go up and down then that rules out a strategy for the likes of me. To me that's the equivalent of being told each players score in advance. Every year I build up value before Christmas and buy the dream team after Christmas. While it makes little difference in years like last season it tends to work when the big guns deliver.

Long before the likes of fiso came along, you could search the list of most expensive teams. There were prizes for first (just look like the overall points game) but sadly that disappeared 6 years ago thanks to fiso ruining it.
Price changes are an important aspect of the game to prevent templates and allow teams who place an emphasis on value be rewarded. It typically governs your points return potential later in the season. Take away that variability and you might as well kill other "known" variables and have the teams post their match day squads a week in advance, how many minutes each player will get etc.

FHFC · 05-09-2016 07:44AM

https://twitter.com/fpl_statistics/status/772684780488056832

mectavba · 05-09-2016 03:26PM

On the topic of knowing for certain or not on price changes, I will leave it to the wise words of Mr. Little....

iroced · 05-09-2016 09:43PM

machiavellianme wrote: »

It's the exact same thing. Price changes dictate your squad value and are typically driven by form and points returns. For some of us, having the most expensive team is the reason we play. If everyone knows how much much each player will go up and down then that rules out a strategy for the likes of me. To me that's the equivalent of being told each players score in advance. Every year I build up value before Christmas and buy the dream team after Christmas. While it makes little difference in years like last season it tends to work when the big guns deliver.

Long before the likes of fiso came along, you could search the list of most expensive teams. There were prizes for first (just look like the overall points game) but sadly that disappeared 6 years ago thanks to fiso ruining it.
Price changes are an important aspect of the game to prevent templates and allow teams who place an emphasis on value be rewarded. It typically governs your points return potential later in the season. Take away that variability and you might as well kill other "known" variables and have the teams post their match day squads a week in advance, how many minutes each player will get etc.

No offence but I disagree with everything you wrote.

1. If FPL were running price changes themselves such that we'd know exactly who's falling & rising, you still could play your team value game and benefit from it. Many many posters here (I have Busts in mind but I think there was a better example in the last couple of years, CSF maybe?) and there don't put such emphasis on price changes. So even with a system where we'd know exactly what's going on, I don't see them changing their way of playing. And that goes for thousands, millions of players who make their transfers on the Friday night (hence the majority of price changes occuring that night). So you're wrong when you say that a precise system would ruin your strategy.

2. I still find your comparison with knowing each player score far fetched. If we knew who were going to score, there'd be no point in playing. If we know who's going up or down precisely, we can run the team value aspect of the game or not. Not everyone will be happy taking a huge amount of pts hits just to build team value up. Besides, every season there's a wonder cheapie, e.g. Charlie Adams, Michu, Ramsey, Kane, Austin, Alli, Mahrez etc... so no absolute need of having the most expensive team to perform. If you're happy to play this way, fine but the fact we'd know about price changes would make no difference. It actually would probably save you a couple of useless pts hits.
Again no offence intended but if team value is the main reason you play, I'm afraid you're not playing the right game. Team value is one aspect of the game, one important aspect but it's not THE game itself. I mean it's not fantasy team value.

3. I started playing in 2010/11 and the rankings and prize for best team value were still there. FISO were already existing and they didn't ruin anything. FPL stopped listing and awarding the best valued teams when they changed their website the year we experienced the huge bug in GW1 (2011/12 IIRC) and they awarded everyone an additional GW2 WC!

Iused2likebusts · 05-09-2016 09:59PM

I'd say swiper is the poster you are thinking of. I do tend to pay attention to price rises up till 2nd wildcard in Jan . It would be more on the getting players in early in the week before they rise side of things. However I wouldn't be influenced in selling what I consider a good option due to a fall in price.

machiavellianme · 06-09-2016 07:21AM

iroced wrote: »

No offence but I disagree with everything you wrote.

1. If FPL were running price changes themselves such that we'd know exactly who's falling & rising, you still could play your team value game and benefit from it. Many many posters here (I have Busts in mind but I think there was a better example in the last couple of years, CSF maybe?) and there don't put such emphasis on price changes. So even with a system where we'd know exactly what's going on, I don't see them changing their way of playing. And that It goes for thousands, millions of players who make their transfers on the Friday night (hence the majority of price changes occuring that night). So you're wrong when you say that a precise system would ruin your strategy.

2. I still find your comparison with knowing each player score far fetched. If we knew who were going to score, there'd be no point in playing. If we know who's going up or down precisely, we can run the team value aspect of the game or not. Not everyone will be happy taking a huge amount of pts hits just to build team value up. Besides, every season there's a wonder cheapie, e.g. Charlie Adams, Michu, Ramsey, Kane, Austin, Alli, Mahrez etc... so no absolute need of having the most expensive team to perform. If you're happy to play this way, fine but the fact we'd know about price changes would make no difference. It actually would probably save you a couple of useless pts hits.
Again no offence intended but if team value is the main reason you play, I'm afraid you're not playing the right game. Team value is one aspect of the game, one important aspect but it's not THE game itself. I mean it's not fantasy team value.

3. I started playing in 2010/11 and the rankings and prize for best team value were still there. FISO were already existing and they didn't ruin anything. FPL stopped listing and awarding the best valued teams when they changed their website the year we experienced the huge bug in GW1 (2011/12 IIRC) and they awarded everyone an additional GW2 WC!

2010 was 6 years ago. It was the first year that "crack the code" appeared to be working (fiso was just another community before that, around since 2004 and troubling no one) and the last year that you could sort all teams from 1 to 2.5m based on value. Since then they have shown a leaderboard of the top 5 teams or so (on occasion - not every year).
I finished second in the world for team value that year and no prizes were awarded. I was 8th the previous year and got a free football.
Team value is my strategy. The same way that making just 7 transfers is someone else's. I've never ended up with an OR higher than 100k. The year I had the second most expensive team I made 54 transfers and still finished in the top 15k, winning all of my private leagues.

Yes there are cheaper players who do well every year but they inevitably become part of the template team and everyone has them, thereby driving their prices upwards. By havinga lot of value, you can also afford all of the Ronaldos, Lampards, Gerrards, Henrys or Rvps to go with them. By announcing price changes in advance, many more players would pay active attention to that part of the game (regardless of what you think) and erode the point of my strategy. It's the same as when a player is flagged and transfered out in their droves (like Aguero has been).

If it were horse racing, what we have is much like the current system. Punters learn all the variables and react accordingly, thereby influencing price. It allows opportune punters to place a bet at the optimal price but in doing so influences it for others. When a favourite emerges (because it is most likely to return in the eyes of the players) the price responds accordingly. I don't think anyone would bet if the results of a race were known in advance because the price would be prohibitive. The same with FPL. If you know how much a player will cost in the future, it is driven by response to the variables of the game. If its a higher price it's likely because that player is returning higher points or has the potential to. Others will see this and jump on the bandwagon so you end up with template teams due to price watching.

If you don't agree with me that's fine, there's lots of ways to play the game. I've been at it for well over a decade and not won it outright so my method is not without flaws. I still enjoy playing this way and wouldn't want it to change. Doesn't mean that I wouldn't adapt if I need to, I do to some extent every year eg when to stop taking hits every year and just let the dream team roll etc. I don't like the chips but I adapted to using them.

km79 · 06-09-2016 07:38AM

So any changes ?

machiavellianme · 06-09-2016 07:40AM

No one up.
Pied, lingard, Jones, hernandez down.

iroced · 06-09-2016 09:26AM

@machiavellanme:

Thought crack the code started earlier (found a 09-10 thread => http://fiso.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=62623&sid=4d78614996f6ab1702dcad402d43e3c2) but won't nitpick for one season.

fiso may be responsible for FPL to stop giving prizes to the most valuable teams 'cause they found it became too easy, I don't know. Anyway fiso did not make your strategy impossible to use nor less effective. You just can't get any direct prize for it anymore.

machiavellianme wrote: »

By announcing price changes in advance, many more players would pay active attention to that part of the game (regardless of what you think) and erode the point of my strategy. It's the same as when a player is flagged and transfered out in their droves (like Aguero has been).

You don't know that. You seem to suppose that if we knew precisely who were going to rise or fall, we'll all transfer in or out players to build team value regardless of the amount of hits we'd take or of the inherent risk of early transfers.
And comparing it with flagging is far fetched in my view. When a player is flagged people transfer him out 'cause they know he won't play and thus won't return points. It is particularly true for Agüero who's taking a significant part of anyone's budget. When a player is about to rise or drop, not everyone jumps on it. They still may rate a falling player. They may want to see more from a rising player. They may not be convince a premium player (e.g. Sanchez this week) will be as valuable this season than he was in previous ones. etc... etc... I see no reason why they'd change this attitude if they knew exactly about the players rising or falling.

machiavellianme wrote: »

If it were horse racing, what we have is much like the current system. Punters learn all the variables and react accordingly, thereby influencing price. It allows opportune punters to place a bet at the optimal price but in doing so influences it for others. When a favourite emerges (because it is most likely to return in the eyes of the players) the price responds accordingly. I don't think anyone would bet if the results of a race were known in advance because the price would be prohibitive. The same with FPL. If you know how much a player will cost in the future, it is driven by response to the variables of the game. If its a higher price it's likely because that player is returning higher points or has the potential to. Others will see this and jump on the bandwagon so you end up with template teams due to price watching.

Sorry but this makes no sense to me. You're still comparing apples with oranges in my view. Because if in horse racing it is important to bet at the optimal prize to optimise your gains, in FPL it is not that critical to get in players at the best price. So your strategy will be valid and achievale anyway. There will always be performing cheapies that people will be happy to take in place of a premium player they'd "sacrifice" for not building team value as you do. And getting in players late sometimes turns out to be an advantage, giving you more flexibility to sell if necessary. We see that every season and we already know quite well about price changes.

And what you're saying about template teams is a bit of a myth in my view. If I take my own example, it's my 7th season playing. The price change system at least changed 4 times. Prediction sites are doing well roughly with the same accuracy each year. Do we have more template teams now because people got used to prediction sites and follow them a lot? No. This forum or FFS are a lot more influential for building templates.

So granted there may be a significant diff between 2004 and now but definitely not from 2010. The only season that was a bit different was the one 3 years ago where they removed weighting factors and price changes were happening quicker. It actually favoured players like you. I remember you posted a huge team value in the second part of the season and were the only one to be able to afford all premium players without weakening your team elsewhere. I'm sure it'd have been the same had we known exactly about price changes. That season was actually maybe the one where the price predictions sites had it the most accurate. So again I don't see why you're so sure FPL running price changes would ruin your strategy

FHFC even wrote a paper about the myths around price changes and taking hits (e.g. popular belief, even carried by dedicated FPL sites, that less hits is good/better).

We'll probably have to agree to disagree on the matter but I think you're far over-exaggerating the consequences of such a "never going to happen anyway" change.

NoviGlitzko · 06-09-2016 09:33PM

Anyone know if Negredo will go up again in this GW?

km79 · 06-09-2016 09:42PM

NoviGlitzko wrote: »

Anyone know if Negredo will go up again in this GW?

http://www.fplstatistics.co.uk/Home/IndexAndroid

Ziegler1988 · 07-09-2016 02:28AM

Risers : Cazorla

Fallers : Mertesacker, Townsend, A.King, Schweinsteiger, Allen, Ki Sung-Yueng

greedygoblin · 07-09-2016 02:30AM

Up:
Cazorla

Down:

Ki Sung-yueng
Schweinsteiger
Allen
King
Townsend
Mertesacker

shineon23 · 07-09-2016 02:32AM

greedygoblin wrote: »

Down:

Townsend

*Family flowers only please.*

greedygoblin · 07-09-2016 02:41AM

shineon23 wrote: »

*Family flowers only please.*

He held on a long time.

Now Spacecraft, punish all them unbelievers on Saturday please!

07-09-2016 02:59AM

Can somebody post a link here, to a page that updates daily, with the price movers ?

greedygoblin · 07-09-2016 03:12AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Can somebody post a link here, to a page that updates daily, with the price movers ?

http://fplstatistics.com/Home/Events

http://crackthecode.fiso.co.uk/blog/price-changes/

07-09-2016 03:29AM

greedygoblin wrote: »

http://fplstatistics.com/Home/Events

http://crackthecode.fiso.co.uk/blog/price-changes/

Thanks. Will take my turn to update here as the time zone suits.

Father Hernandez · 07-09-2016 09:13AM

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

Risers : Cazorla

Fallers : Mertesacker, Townsend, A.King, Schweinsteiger, Allen, Ki Sung-Yueng

Foster still hasn't risen??? :eek:

Mr.Prodston · 07-09-2016 09:54AM

greedygoblin wrote: »

Down:

Townsend

Spacecraft will soar again

jimmii · 07-09-2016 10:06AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Thanks. Will take my turn to update here as the time zone suits.

Take the chance to get things back to how they were last season. We needs lot of Mick and some well chosen gifs that's what this thread is really about.

OneColdHand · 07-09-2016 10:39AM

jimmii wrote: »

Take the chance to get things back to how they were last season. We needs lot of Mick and some well chosen gifs that's what this thread is really about.

Micks or gtfo!

07-09-2016 10:46AM

jimmii wrote: »

Take the chance to get things back to how they were last season. We needs lot of Mick and some well chosen gifs that's what this thread is really about.

Well considering I don't know what a gif is I'd imagine you'll be very disappointed.

jimmii · 07-09-2016 10:49AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Well considering I don't know what a gif is I'd imagine you'll be very disappointed.

Its the little video clips like you see above. These are vital.

jimmii · 07-09-2016 10:50AM

OneColdHand wrote: »

Micks or gtfo!

The more the better obviously the lack of plural was merely oversight!

MR NINE · 07-09-2016 12:28PM

Out of curiosity, what are people's guesstimations over who will rise first out of Sterling & Costa? Sterling is currently ahead but Costa is being transferred in at a higher rate. I'm hoping to hold Sterling for his second rise of the gw and then transfer him out and use the funds to buy costa before he rises.

(I'm aware costa has already risen 0.1, i foolishly missed the boat on that rise)

Price Changes 2016/2017 - OP updated 15/12/16

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