September 2016 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium ____________ 13.7 __ 26.6 __ 0.0 __ 085 __ 105 __ 14.6

Table of forecasts September 2016


FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ IMT 15th

sryanbruen __________ 14.2 _ 25.0 _ 4.9 _ 110 _ 110 ____ 15.1

Joe Public ___________ 14.1 _ 24.6 _ 0.9 _ 145 _ 095 ____ 14.7

Sunflower3 __________ 14.0 _ 24.2 _ 1.8 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 14.1

pauldry _____________ 14.0 _ 24.0 _ 2.1 _ 108 _ 101 ____ 14.8

Rikand __ (-2) _______ 14.0 _ 23.0_--2.0 _ 085 _ 110 ____ 15.0

Jpmarn______________ 13.9 _ 25.6 _ 0.8 _ 115 _ 120 ____ 15.4

waterways ___________13.9 _ 24.0_--0.8 _ 108 _ 092 ____ 15.1

jd __________________ 13.9 _ 23.2 _ 0.4 _ 098 _ 098 ____ 14.9

Bsal ________________ 13.9 _ 23.0 _ 0.5 _ 100 _ 098 ____ 15.0

200motels ___________ 13.8 _ 25.0_--0.5 _ 104 _ 090 ____ 15.2

Tae laidir ____________ 13.8 _ 22.6 _ 0.0 _ 115 _ 095 ____ 14.4


Con Sensus _______ 13.8 _ 24.0 _ 0.5 _ 104 _ 100 ____ 14.7


M.T. Cranium _________ 13.7 _ 26.6 _ 0.0 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 14.6

Rameire _____________ 13.7 _ 22.5 _ 1.0 _ 112 _ 092 ____ 14.1

Lumi ________________13.7 _ 22.2_--2.0 _ 109 _ 094 ____ 14.7

DOCARCH ____________13.6 _ 24.7_--0.4 _ 092 _ 108 ____ 13.9

Kindred Spirit _________ 13.6 _ 23.0 _ 0.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 14.4

MrSkinner ____________ 13.5 _ 24.5 _ 0.5 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 15.0

Dasa29 ______________ 13.5 _ 24.0 _ 2.0 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 14.0

Dacogawa ____________ 13.3 _ 24.8 _ 0.9 _ 097 _ 108 ____ 14.1

mickger844posts _(-4) __ 13.2 _ 23.0 _ 3.9 _ 105 _ 093 ____ 14.7


Norma L ___________13.1 _ 25.0 _--1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 13.8


john mac ___ (-2) _____ 13.0 _ 24.8 _ 1.6 _ 103 _ 102 ____ 13.3

Carnacalla____________ 12.8 _ 23.5 _ 2.7 _ 120 _ 080 ____ 14.1
______________________________________________________________

The group consensus is for a warm, slightly wet month although very close to normal values of rainfall and sunshine generally.

Will count down daily to the mid-month value ... 16.5 after eight days.

After 10 days, the IMT stands at 16.0 ... our highest guess for the 15th is 15.4 from Jpmarn, followed by 15.2 from 200motels.

My current estimate is 15.5 based on an average of 14.5 today to Thursday 15th.

After 12 days, the IMT is on 15.7(4) and looks to be heading for about 15.4 now.

IMT is 15.6 after 13 days.

MIN of 6.1 at Claremorris on 13th appears to be lowest anywhere so far.

So, the IMT after 15 days turned out to be 15.5 C (15.48 to be exact) and that sets up the scoring in order of forecasts:

10 to JPmarn (15.4) and 200motels (15.2)
9 to Sryanbruen and waterways (15.1)
8 to Rikand, Bsal and MrSkinner (15.0)
7 to JD (14.9)
6 to four (Pauldry, Joe Public, Lumi, Mickger844p) who were 14.7 or 14.8
6 also to Con Sensus
4 to three at 14.4 to 14.6 (Tae Laidir, Kindred Spirit, MTC)
3 to four who said 14.1
2 to one at 14.0
1 to anybody else (13s)

Meanwhile, almost forgot to do this update ...

After three weeks (21 days) ...

IMT on 14.6 after third week rather cool, 12.7 C which is 0.3 below normal for the period.

PRC down to 121% of normal now, after the third week was relatively dry (62% of normal).

SUN still quite deficient at 63% of normal, after this week managed only 68% of normal.