September 2016 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 13.1 C.

2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

6. For a BONUS question, predict the IMT at the halfway point, that is, after the first fifteen days.

Deadline for entries will be 0300h Thursday 1st of September, with 1 point deductions for every 3h late to 1500h Friday 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 12 points accumulated to that time).

Good luck, I will be on holiday for the first week of September and so the table of entries may be a bit later than usual appearing.

My entry will be posted on the 31st, I hope.

For that bonus question, you could estimate that a "normal" value for the first half of September IMT is about 13.8.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen __________ 14.2 _ 25.0_ 4.9 _ 110_ 110_ 15.1

Going for a very warm and unsettled but sunny month.

pauldry

pauldry__________ 14.0 _ 24.0_ 2.1 _ 108_ 101_ 14.8

Bsal

Bsal__________ 13.9 _ 23.0_ 0.5 _ 100_ 98_ 15.0

Tae laidir

Tae laidir __________ 13.8 _ 22.6 _ 0.0 _ 115 _ 95 _ 14.4

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium ____________ 13.7 __ 26.6 __ 0.0 __ 085 __ 105 __ 14.6

dasa29

Dasa29 ____________ 13.5 __ 24.0 __ 2.0 __ 105 __ 95 __ 14.0

JCX BXC

Carnacalla__________ 12.8 _ 23.5_ 2.7 _ 120_ 80_ 14.1

Finally in before the deadline

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ____________ 13.6 __ 24.7 __ -0.4 __ 092 __ 108 __ 13.9

sunflower3

Sunflower3 _____14.0__ 24.2 __ 1.8 __ 090 __ 105 __ 14.1

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit_________13.6°______23______00.0________100________100________14.4

waterways

waterways ____________ 13.9 __ 24.0__ -0.8 __ 108 __ 92 __ 15.1

Joe Public

Joe Public ____________ 14.1 __ 24.6 __ 0.9 __ 145 __ 95 __ 14.7

rameire

Rameire ____________ 13.7 __ 22.5 __ 1.0 __ 112 __ 092 __ 14.1

200motels

200motels

---

13.8 __ 25.0__ -0.5 __ 104 __ 90 __ 15.2

mrskinner

Mrskinner ______13.5______24.5______0.5______85______105______15

jd

jd__________ 13.9 _ 23.2_ .4 _98_ 98_ 14.9

Lumi

Lumi __________ 13.7 _ 22.2 _ -2.0 _ 109 _ 94 _ 14.7

dacogawa

Dacogawa __________ 13.3 _ 24.8 _ 0.9 _ 97 _ 108 _ 14.1

Jpmarn

Jpmarn____________ 13.9 __ 25.6 __ 0.8 __ 115 __ 120 __ 15.4

Just in before the deadline.

John mac

john mac__________ 13 _ 24.8_ 1.6 _ 103_ 102_ 13.3

Rikand

Feckin did it again

Rikand ____ 14.0 ____ 23.0 ____ -2.0 ____ 85 _____ 110 _____ 15.0

mickger844posts

mickger844posts __________ 13.2 _ 23.0_ 3.9 _ 105_ 93_ 14.7

Jpmarn

Phoenix park weather station is reporting 25c at 1400.

DOCARCH

Jpmarn wrote: »

Phoenix park weather station is reporting 25c at 1400.

...and...26c at 1600.

Bsal

Well that's my max temp for Sept gone out the window

Rikand

This whole year has been a disaster.....



.... for my predictions

Tae laidir

Phoenix Park 26.0 yesterday.
Max for previous Septembers:
2015: 20.3
2014: 23.9
2013: 23.9
2012: 23.1
2011: 25.6
2010: 22.6

pauldry

Tae laidir wrote: »

Phoenix Park 26.0 yesterday.
Max for previous Septembers:
2015: 20.3
2014: 23.9
2013: 23.9
2012: 23.1
2011: 25.6
2010: 22.6

Its 25c there again today

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts September 2016


FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ IMT 15th

sryanbruen __________ 14.2 _ 25.0 _ 4.9 _ 110 _ 110 ____ 15.1

Joe Public ___________ 14.1 _ 24.6 _ 0.9 _ 145 _ 095 ____ 14.7

Sunflower3 __________ 14.0 _ 24.2 _ 1.8 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 14.1

pauldry _____________ 14.0 _ 24.0 _ 2.1 _ 108 _ 101 ____ 14.8

Rikand __ (-2) _______ 14.0 _ 23.0_--2.0 _ 085 _ 110 ____ 15.0

Jpmarn______________ 13.9 _ 25.6 _ 0.8 _ 115 _ 120 ____ 15.4

waterways ___________13.9 _ 24.0_--0.8 _ 108 _ 092 ____ 15.1

jd __________________ 13.9 _ 23.2 _ 0.4 _ 098 _ 098 ____ 14.9

Bsal ________________ 13.9 _ 23.0 _ 0.5 _ 100 _ 098 ____ 15.0

200motels ___________ 13.8 _ 25.0_--0.5 _ 104 _ 090 ____ 15.2

Tae laidir ____________ 13.8 _ 22.6 _ 0.0 _ 115 _ 095 ____ 14.4


Con Sensus _______ 13.8 _ 24.0 _ 0.5 _ 104 _ 100 ____ 14.7


M.T. Cranium _________ 13.7 _ 26.6 _ 0.0 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 14.6

Rameire _____________ 13.7 _ 22.5 _ 1.0 _ 112 _ 092 ____ 14.1

Lumi ________________13.7 _ 22.2_--2.0 _ 109 _ 094 ____ 14.7

DOCARCH ____________13.6 _ 24.7_--0.4 _ 092 _ 108 ____ 13.9

Kindred Spirit _________ 13.6 _ 23.0 _ 0.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 14.4

MrSkinner ____________ 13.5 _ 24.5 _ 0.5 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 15.0

Dasa29 ______________ 13.5 _ 24.0 _ 2.0 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 14.0

Dacogawa ____________ 13.3 _ 24.8 _ 0.9 _ 097 _ 108 ____ 14.1

mickger844posts _(-4) __ 13.2 _ 23.0 _ 3.9 _ 105 _ 093 ____ 14.7


Norma L ___________13.1 _ 25.0 _--1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 13.8


john mac ___ (-2) _____ 13.0 _ 24.8 _ 1.6 _ 103 _ 102 ____ 13.3

Carnacalla____________ 12.8 _ 23.5 _ 2.7 _ 120 _ 080 ____ 14.1
______________________________________________________________

The group consensus is for a warm, slightly wet month although very close to normal values of rainfall and sunshine generally.

M.T. Cranium

After seven (very warm) days ...

IMT stands at 16.6 C which is 2.5 above normal for the week. I noticed that Casement had a daily mean of 21.1 deg on Tuesday.

PRC was 168% of normal although Shannon was only 90%, parts of Leinster and Connacht were over 200%.

SUN was only 59.3% of normal.

MAX noted by you was 26.0, I have not searched all data, but saw nothing higher on Tuesday, and we are nowhere near a final MIN yet.