September 2016 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 13.1 C.

2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

6. For a BONUS question, predict the IMT at the halfway point, that is, after the first fifteen days.

Deadline for entries will be 0300h Thursday 1st of September, with 1 point deductions for every 3h late to 1500h Friday 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 12 points accumulated to that time).

Good luck, I will be on holiday for the first week of September and so the table of entries may be a bit later than usual appearing.

My entry will be posted on the 31st, I hope.

For that bonus question, you could estimate that a "normal" value for the first half of September IMT is about 13.8.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen __________ 14.2 _ 25.0_ 4.9 _ 110_ 110_ 15.1

Going for a very warm and unsettled but sunny month.

pauldry

pauldry__________ 14.0 _ 24.0_ 2.1 _ 108_ 101_ 14.8

Bsal

Bsal__________ 13.9 _ 23.0_ 0.5 _ 100_ 98_ 15.0

Tae laidir

Tae laidir __________ 13.8 _ 22.6 _ 0.0 _ 115 _ 95 _ 14.4

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium ____________ 13.7 __ 26.6 __ 0.0 __ 085 __ 105 __ 14.6

dasa29

Dasa29 ____________ 13.5 __ 24.0 __ 2.0 __ 105 __ 95 __ 14.0

JCX BXC

Carnacalla__________ 12.8 _ 23.5_ 2.7 _ 120_ 80_ 14.1

Finally in before the deadline

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ____________ 13.6 __ 24.7 __ -0.4 __ 092 __ 108 __ 13.9

sunflower3

Sunflower3 _____14.0__ 24.2 __ 1.8 __ 090 __ 105 __ 14.1

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit_________13.6°______23______00.0________100________100________14.4

waterways

waterways ____________ 13.9 __ 24.0__ -0.8 __ 108 __ 92 __ 15.1

Joe Public

Joe Public ____________ 14.1 __ 24.6 __ 0.9 __ 145 __ 95 __ 14.7

rameire

Rameire ____________ 13.7 __ 22.5 __ 1.0 __ 112 __ 092 __ 14.1

200motels

200motels

---

13.8 __ 25.0__ -0.5 __ 104 __ 90 __ 15.2

mrskinner

Mrskinner ______13.5______24.5______0.5______85______105______15

jd

jd__________ 13.9 _ 23.2_ .4 _98_ 98_ 14.9

Lumi

Lumi __________ 13.7 _ 22.2 _ -2.0 _ 109 _ 94 _ 14.7

dacogawa

Dacogawa __________ 13.3 _ 24.8 _ 0.9 _ 97 _ 108 _ 14.1

Jpmarn

Jpmarn____________ 13.9 __ 25.6 __ 0.8 __ 115 __ 120 __ 15.4

Just in before the deadline.

John mac

john mac__________ 13 _ 24.8_ 1.6 _ 103_ 102_ 13.3

Rikand

Feckin did it again

Rikand ____ 14.0 ____ 23.0 ____ -2.0 ____ 85 _____ 110 _____ 15.0

mickger844posts

mickger844posts __________ 13.2 _ 23.0_ 3.9 _ 105_ 93_ 14.7

Jpmarn

Phoenix park weather station is reporting 25c at 1400.

DOCARCH

Jpmarn wrote: »

Phoenix park weather station is reporting 25c at 1400.

...and...26c at 1600.

Bsal

Well that's my max temp for Sept gone out the window

Rikand

This whole year has been a disaster.....



.... for my predictions

Tae laidir

Phoenix Park 26.0 yesterday.
Max for previous Septembers:
2015: 20.3
2014: 23.9
2013: 23.9
2012: 23.1
2011: 25.6
2010: 22.6

pauldry

Tae laidir wrote: »

Phoenix Park 26.0 yesterday.
Max for previous Septembers:
2015: 20.3
2014: 23.9
2013: 23.9
2012: 23.1
2011: 25.6
2010: 22.6

Its 25c there again today

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts September 2016


FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ IMT 15th

sryanbruen __________ 14.2 _ 25.0 _ 4.9 _ 110 _ 110 ____ 15.1

Joe Public ___________ 14.1 _ 24.6 _ 0.9 _ 145 _ 095 ____ 14.7

Sunflower3 __________ 14.0 _ 24.2 _ 1.8 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 14.1

pauldry _____________ 14.0 _ 24.0 _ 2.1 _ 108 _ 101 ____ 14.8

Rikand __ (-2) _______ 14.0 _ 23.0_--2.0 _ 085 _ 110 ____ 15.0

Jpmarn______________ 13.9 _ 25.6 _ 0.8 _ 115 _ 120 ____ 15.4

waterways ___________13.9 _ 24.0_--0.8 _ 108 _ 092 ____ 15.1

jd __________________ 13.9 _ 23.2 _ 0.4 _ 098 _ 098 ____ 14.9

Bsal ________________ 13.9 _ 23.0 _ 0.5 _ 100 _ 098 ____ 15.0

200motels ___________ 13.8 _ 25.0_--0.5 _ 104 _ 090 ____ 15.2

Tae laidir ____________ 13.8 _ 22.6 _ 0.0 _ 115 _ 095 ____ 14.4


Con Sensus _______ 13.8 _ 24.0 _ 0.5 _ 104 _ 100 ____ 14.7


M.T. Cranium _________ 13.7 _ 26.6 _ 0.0 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 14.6

Rameire _____________ 13.7 _ 22.5 _ 1.0 _ 112 _ 092 ____ 14.1

Lumi ________________13.7 _ 22.2_--2.0 _ 109 _ 094 ____ 14.7

DOCARCH ____________13.6 _ 24.7_--0.4 _ 092 _ 108 ____ 13.9

Kindred Spirit _________ 13.6 _ 23.0 _ 0.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 14.4

MrSkinner ____________ 13.5 _ 24.5 _ 0.5 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 15.0

Dasa29 ______________ 13.5 _ 24.0 _ 2.0 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 14.0

Dacogawa ____________ 13.3 _ 24.8 _ 0.9 _ 097 _ 108 ____ 14.1

mickger844posts _(-4) __ 13.2 _ 23.0 _ 3.9 _ 105 _ 093 ____ 14.7


Norma L ___________13.1 _ 25.0 _--1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 13.8


john mac ___ (-2) _____ 13.0 _ 24.8 _ 1.6 _ 103 _ 102 ____ 13.3

Carnacalla____________ 12.8 _ 23.5 _ 2.7 _ 120 _ 080 ____ 14.1
______________________________________________________________

The group consensus is for a warm, slightly wet month although very close to normal values of rainfall and sunshine generally.

M.T. Cranium

After seven (very warm) days ...

IMT stands at 16.6 C which is 2.5 above normal for the week. I noticed that Casement had a daily mean of 21.1 deg on Tuesday.

PRC was 168% of normal although Shannon was only 90%, parts of Leinster and Connacht were over 200%.

SUN was only 59.3% of normal.

MAX noted by you was 26.0, I have not searched all data, but saw nothing higher on Tuesday, and we are nowhere near a final MIN yet.

pauldry

Ok...roll on October

Jpmarn

I hope the average stay above 15c until next Thursday to answer our bonus question. 16.6 is pretty encouraging. But temperatures are going down to seasonable norms for the next few days.

M.T. Cranium

Will count down daily to the mid-month value ... 16.5 after eight days.

M.T. Cranium

16.3 after 9 days.

M.T. Cranium

After 10 days, the IMT stands at 16.0 ... our highest guess for the 15th is 15.4 from Jpmarn, followed by 15.2 from 200motels.

My current estimate is 15.5 based on an average of 14.5 today to Thursday 15th.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT now stands at 15.8 after eleven days, still appears to be settling into the mid-15 range (today may produce even a slight rise back to 15.9 with these warm highs in the east).

Points are pretty much assured of going in order of forecasts at this point.

M.T. Cranium

After 12 days, the IMT is on 15.7(4) and looks to be heading for about 15.4 now.

Rikand

pauldry wrote: »

Ok...roll on 2017

FYP

M.T. Cranium

IMT is 15.6 after 13 days.

MIN of 6.1 at Claremorris on 13th appears to be lowest anywhere so far.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT now stands at 15.5 with the second week at 14.4, about 0.7 above normal, however the anomalies range from +1.5 in the east for the week, to slightly below normal at Shannon and Claremorris.

PRC now at 160% of normal, the second week was 152%.

SUN now on 65% as the second week managed 71%.

(MAX 26.0, MIN 6.1).

M.T. Cranium

So, the IMT after 15 days turned out to be 15.5 C (15.48 to be exact) and that sets up the scoring in order of forecasts:

10 to JPmarn (15.4) and 200motels (15.2)
9 to Sryanbruen and waterways (15.1)
8 to Rikand, Bsal and MrSkinner (15.0)
7 to JD (14.9)
6 to four (Pauldry, Joe Public, Lumi, Mickger844p) who were 14.7 or 14.8
6 also to Con Sensus
4 to three at 14.4 to 14.6 (Tae Laidir, Kindred Spirit, MTC)
3 to four who said 14.1
2 to one at 14.0
1 to anybody else (13s)

M.T. Cranium

Although the IMT has fallen off to 14.9 (after 19 days) the MIN remains on 6.1, with a second reading at that level on the 19th at Mountdillon.

Full update after tomorrow (three weeks).

pauldry

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Although the IMT has fallen off to 14.9 (after 19 days) the MIN remains on 6.1, with a second reading at that level on the 19th at Mountdillon.

Full update after tomorrow (three weeks).

Mins supposed to be 2 or 3c tomorrow night

M.T. Cranium

MIN is now 5.4 (Dublin 20th). Probably will fall a bit lower in coming days (most of us hope so anyway).

pauldry

Already just 6c at Athenry and Claremorris

It will be near 0c by morning.

Very cold out there

Even Sligo by the sea is 7.6c

M.T. Cranium

Markree reporting 2 C at 0300h, 0400h, and 0500h, and 1 C at 0600h. Will edit this post with anything equal or colder as we go, mins are probably possible as late as 0600h or 0700h now. Moorepark has been reporting 3 C at 0400-0600h.

Autumn equinox at 3:21 p.m. (1421z) today.

I may not need the mercy rule on the IMT or the MIN after all.

pauldry

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Markree reporting 2 C at 0300h, 0400h, and 0500h, and 1 C at 0600h. Will edit this post with anything equal or colder as we go, mins are probably possible as late as 0600h or 0700h now. Moorepark has been reporting 3 C at 0400-0600h.

Autumn equinox at 3:21 p.m. (1421z) today.

I may not need the mercy rule on the IMT or the MIN after all.

Mt Dillon was also low but Markree won out i think. Sligo town was just 3.8c even with Atlantic n Urban factors

John mac

When i was leaving home this am (05:10) had to scrape the ice off the windscreen . car was showing 1 deg. (near Delvin, co Westmeath)

M.T. Cranium

Meanwhile, almost forgot to do this update ...

After three weeks (21 days) ...

IMT on 14.6 after third week rather cool, 12.7 C which is 0.3 below normal for the period.

PRC down to 121% of normal now, after the third week was relatively dry (62% of normal).

SUN still quite deficient at 63% of normal, after this week managed only 68% of normal.

M.T. Cranium

MIN to be more precise was 1.3 C at Markree on 22nd.