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September 2016 Boards forecast contest

  • 28-08-2016 6:27pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,184 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 13.1 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

    5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

    6. For a BONUS question, predict the IMT at the halfway point, that is, after the first fifteen days.

    Deadline for entries will be 0300h Thursday 1st of September, with 1 point deductions for every 3h late to 1500h Friday 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 12 points accumulated to that time).

    Good luck, I will be on holiday for the first week of September and so the table of entries may be a bit later than usual appearing.

    My entry will be posted on the 31st, I hope.

    For that bonus question, you could estimate that a "normal" value for the first half of September IMT is about 13.8.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen __________ 14.2 _ 25.0_ 4.9 _ 110_ 110_ 15.1

    Going for a very warm and unsettled but sunny month.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    pauldry__________ 14.0 _ 24.0_ 2.1 _ 108_ 101_ 14.8


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal__________ 13.9 _ 23.0_ 0.5 _ 100_ 98_ 15.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 621 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir __________ 13.8 _ 22.6 _ 0.0 _ 115 _ 95 _ 14.4


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,184 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    M.T. Cranium ____________ 13.7 __ 26.6 __ 0.0 __ 085 __ 105 __ 14.6


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  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 ____________ 13.5 __ 24.0 __ 2.0 __ 105 __ 95 __ 14.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,664 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Carnacalla__________ 12.8 _ 23.5_ 2.7 _ 120_ 80_ 14.1

    Finally in before the deadline


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,101 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ____________ 13.6 __ 24.7 __ -0.4 __ 092 __ 108 __ 13.9


  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 _____14.0__ 24.2 __ 1.8 __ 090 __ 105 __ 14.1


  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit_________13.6°______23______00.0________100________100________14.4


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  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways ____________ 13.9 __ 24.0__ -0.8 __ 108 __ 92 __ 15.1


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public ____________ 14.1 __ 24.6 __ 0.9 __ 145 __ 95 __ 14.7


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,755 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire ____________ 13.7 __ 22.5 __ 1.0 __ 112 __ 092 __ 14.1


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels
    13.8 __ 25.0__ -0.5 __ 104 __ 90 __ 15.2


  • Registered Users Posts: 359 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Mrskinner ______13.5______24.5______0.5______85______105______15


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,579 ✭✭✭ jd


    jd__________ 13.9 _ 23.2_ .4 _98_ 98_ 14.9


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 Lumi


    Lumi __________ 13.7 _ 22.2 _ -2.0 _ 109 _ 94 _ 14.7


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa __________ 13.3 _ 24.8 _ 0.9 _ 97 _ 108 _ 14.1


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn____________ 13.9 __ 25.6 __ 0.8 __ 115 __ 120 __ 15.4

    Just in before the deadline.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac__________ 13 _ 24.8_ 1.6 _ 103_ 102_ 13.3


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,554 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Feckin did it again

    Rikand ____ 14.0 ____ 23.0 ____ -2.0 ____ 85 _____ 110 _____ 15.0


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts __________ 13.2 _ 23.0_ 3.9 _ 105_ 93_ 14.7


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Phoenix park weather station is reporting 25c at 1400.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,101 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    Jpmarn wrote: »
    Phoenix park weather station is reporting 25c at 1400.

    ...and...26c at 1600.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Well that's my max temp for Sept gone out the window :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,554 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    This whole year has been a disaster.....



    .... for my predictions ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 621 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Phoenix Park 26.0 yesterday.
    Max for previous Septembers:
    2015: 20.3
    2014: 23.9
    2013: 23.9
    2012: 23.1
    2011: 25.6
    2010: 22.6


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Tae laidir wrote: »
    Phoenix Park 26.0 yesterday.
    Max for previous Septembers:
    2015: 20.3
    2014: 23.9
    2013: 23.9
    2012: 23.1
    2011: 25.6
    2010: 22.6

    Its 25c there again today


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,184 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts September 2016


    FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ IMT 15th

    sryanbruen __________ 14.2 _ 25.0 _ 4.9 _ 110 _ 110 ____ 15.1

    Joe Public ___________ 14.1 _ 24.6 _ 0.9 _ 145 _ 095 ____ 14.7

    Sunflower3 __________ 14.0 _ 24.2 _ 1.8 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 14.1

    pauldry _____________ 14.0 _ 24.0 _ 2.1 _ 108 _ 101 ____ 14.8

    Rikand __ (-2) _______ 14.0 _ 23.0_--2.0 _ 085 _ 110 ____ 15.0

    Jpmarn______________ 13.9 _ 25.6 _ 0.8 _ 115 _ 120 ____ 15.4

    waterways ___________13.9 _ 24.0_--0.8 _ 108 _ 092 ____ 15.1

    jd __________________ 13.9 _ 23.2 _ 0.4 _ 098 _ 098 ____ 14.9

    Bsal ________________ 13.9 _ 23.0 _ 0.5 _ 100 _ 098 ____ 15.0

    200motels ___________ 13.8 _ 25.0_--0.5 _ 104 _ 090 ____ 15.2

    Tae laidir ____________ 13.8 _ 22.6 _ 0.0 _ 115 _ 095 ____ 14.4


    Con Sensus _______ 13.8 _ 24.0 _ 0.5 _ 104 _ 100 ____ 14.7


    M.T. Cranium _________ 13.7 _ 26.6 _ 0.0 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 14.6

    Rameire _____________ 13.7 _ 22.5 _ 1.0 _ 112 _ 092 ____ 14.1

    Lumi ________________13.7 _ 22.2_--2.0 _ 109 _ 094 ____ 14.7

    DOCARCH ____________13.6 _ 24.7_--0.4 _ 092 _ 108 ____ 13.9

    Kindred Spirit _________ 13.6 _ 23.0 _ 0.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 14.4

    MrSkinner ____________ 13.5 _ 24.5 _ 0.5 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 15.0

    Dasa29 ______________ 13.5 _ 24.0 _ 2.0 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 14.0

    Dacogawa ____________ 13.3 _ 24.8 _ 0.9 _ 097 _ 108 ____ 14.1

    mickger844posts _(-4) __ 13.2 _ 23.0 _ 3.9 _ 105 _ 093 ____ 14.7


    Norma L ___________13.1 _ 25.0 _--1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 13.8


    john mac ___ (-2) _____ 13.0 _ 24.8 _ 1.6 _ 103 _ 102 ____ 13.3

    Carnacalla____________ 12.8 _ 23.5 _ 2.7 _ 120 _ 080 ____ 14.1
    ______________________________________________________________

    The group consensus is for a warm, slightly wet month although very close to normal values of rainfall and sunshine generally.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,184 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After seven (very warm) days ...

    IMT stands at 16.6 C which is 2.5 above normal for the week. I noticed that Casement had a daily mean of 21.1 deg on Tuesday.

    PRC was 168% of normal although Shannon was only 90%, parts of Leinster and Connacht were over 200%.

    SUN was only 59.3% of normal.

    MAX noted by you was 26.0, I have not searched all data, but saw nothing higher on Tuesday, and we are nowhere near a final MIN yet.


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