"How fast would Usain Bolt run the mile".

Chivito550 · 04-08-2016 08:12AM #1

A pointless, but nonetheless fun and interesting debate.

http://www.newyorker.com/news/sporting-scene/how-fast-would-usain-bolt-run-the-mile

People saying he has no chance of a sub 5 mile.

dr.fuzzenstein · 04-08-2016 08:19AM

Well, a mile has 1609.34 meters in it, rounding up a tiny bit, that is 16.1 hundred meter races. Multiply that by 9.58 (his 100 meter time) and there you have it!
He would run that distance in 2.57 minutes.

tailgunner · 04-08-2016 08:51AM

dr.fuzzenstein wrote: »

Well, a mile has 1609.34 meters in it, rounding up a tiny bit, that is 16.1 hundred meter races. Multiply that by 9.58 (his 100 meter time) and there you have it!
He would run that distance in 2.57 minutes.

Nah. His first 100 metres would be 9.58 seconds, but the rest would be a lot quicker as he's already at top speed.

KielyUnusual · 04-08-2016 08:56AM

tailgunner wrote: »

Nah. His first 100 metres would be 9.58 seconds, but the rest would be a lot quicker as he's already at top speed.

Yea, but that would probably be balanced out by slowing down a little going round the bends. Sprinters like straight lines. Mile on a road now. Sub 2.30, no bother.

BeepBeep67 · 04-08-2016 09:01AM

Depends on who was knocking on the door!

BeepBeep67 · 04-08-2016 09:06AM

In all seriousness I would expect he could go sub 5.
I'm usually surprised at how quick the decathletes can run 1500m at the end of 2 tough days, sub 4:30 is not unusual.

morceli · 04-08-2016 09:25AM

BeepBeep67 wrote: »

In all seriousness I would expect he could go sub 5.
I'm usually surprised at how quick the decathletes can run 1500m at the end of 2 tough days, sub 4:30 is not unusual.

I'd say 4/45-5 would be possible if he trained a bit, but I doubt he would fancy the longer training runs. Still would love to see him have a go at he long jump think he could put in a decent effort.

Yurt2 · 04-08-2016 09:26AM

Actually, I wonder what kind of decathlete Bolt would make. He would possibly struggle with the throwing events but would make an extremely good fist at everything else.

I'd love to see him try out the long jump.

Krusty_Clown · 04-08-2016 09:32AM

Gut-feel response, but I find it hard to believe that he couldn't manage a sub 5. A guy who can run a 400m in 45-48 seconds should be able to cruise around, dropping 12-15 seconds a lap.

walshb · 04-08-2016 09:42AM

With no training I'd imagine he'd be close to 5 mins, maybe sub 5. With training he could be 4.40 or slightly less.

Chivito550 · 04-08-2016 09:48AM

Michael Johnson used to do mile time trials as part of winter training I believe, and supposedly only sneaked under 5 minutes.

Chivito550 · 04-08-2016 09:54AM

Krusty_Clown wrote: »

Gut-feel response, but I find it hard to believe that he couldn't manage a sub 5. A guy who can run a 400m in 45-48 seconds should be able to cruise around, dropping 12-15 seconds a lap.

45 +15 = 60 secs, which is 4 minute mileing.

Assume you meant 25 seconds. You're probably right. I ran the 1500 equivalent of 5:15 at the end of a decathlon and I was only running 54/55 for 400. You'd imagine an elite 400 runner would manage it comfortably, but a 100 guy who already had a huge drop off at 400 is going to keep seeing dramatic drop offs after that. John Regis told me last year at the media race he ran 2:11 over 800m on Superstars when he was in 45.xx 400m shape (he was sub 20 for 200). No way that guy would be getting under 5.

Chivito550 · 04-08-2016 10:08AM

Yurt! wrote: »

Actually, I wonder what kind of decathlete Bolt would make. He would possibly struggle with the throwing events but would make an extremely good fist at everything else.

I'd love to see him try out the long jump.

His 100 and 400 would obviously be off the charts for decathlon. His long jump he could bluff based on speed, but he would not be world class. There's so much technique in it and he has no background in it at all.

The rest of the events he'd struggle at. His shot, javelin and discus would be miserable. Ditto his pole vault. Can't bluff hurdles just on speed. He'd be too fast with no technique. That doesn't end well. High jump he'd probably do ok to be honest. 1500 would be standard decathlon 1500, so would do ok there.

average_runner · 04-08-2016 10:16AM

Chivito550 wrote: »

His 100 and 400 would obviously be off the charts for decathlon. His long jump he could bluff based on speed, but he would not be world class. There's so much technique in it and he has no background in it at all.

The rest of the events he'd struggle at. His shot, javelin and discus would be miserable. Ditto his pole vault. Can't bluff hurdles just on speed. He'd be too fast with no technique. That doesn't end well. High jump he'd probably do ok to be honest. 1500 would be standard decathlon 1500, so would do ok there.

DId he not do the long jump as a kid?

Chivito550 · 04-08-2016 10:18AM

average_runner wrote: »

DId he not do the long jump as a kid?

No idea. Doing anything as a kid is meaningless. He didn't do it through his teens when he was moulding into a class athlete. Carl Lewis did. That's the difference. You can't just pick up an event like that and expect to compete with the world's best IMO. Would have been nice to have seen him try it back in 09 though when he was mouthing on about trying everything. It was only ever talk though, much like the 600 races with Bekele and also Farah.

ultrapercy · 04-08-2016 10:24AM

walshb wrote: »

With no training I'd imagine he'd be close to 5 mins, maybe sub 5. With training he could be 4.40 or slightly less.

What does "with training" mean in your view? Is it a month of mile reps or 4 to 10 years of 100 miles a week where his body weight and composition is altered to that of a middle distance runner? If it's the latter I'm sure he could go much faster than 70 sec laps if it's the former he doesn't break 5 imo. Mile requires more endurance than speed, it's 4 times Bolts maximum distance that's a long way to hang on.

RasTa · 04-08-2016 11:38AM

I bet he has...

Bolt’s agent, Ricky Simms, won’t say whether he believes that his client could run a mile in less than five minutes. But Simms confirmed, over e-mail, that the world’s greatest sprinter has, in fact, never tried running that far: “Usain has never run a mile.”

walshb · 04-08-2016 01:55PM

RasTa wrote: »

I bet he has...

He's Jamaican. Not a hope he'd run a mile!

gramar · 05-08-2016 11:23AM

I think if he went training this morning and attempted a sub 5 minute mile he's struggle though I doubt he'd be too far off, maybe 5:10/5:20.
I'm sure though that with a few weeks specific training he'd manage it fairly easily.

walshb · 05-08-2016 12:14PM

ultrapercy wrote: »

What does "with training" mean in your view? Is it a month of mile reps or 4 to 10 years of 100 miles a week where his body weight and composition is altered to that of a middle distance runner? If it's the latter I'm sure he could go much faster than 70 sec laps if it's the former he doesn't break 5 imo. Mile requires more endurance than speed, it's 4 times Bolts maximum distance that's a long way to hang on.

It's self explanatory. I would take it to mean that Bolt wakes up, sets himself a goal to run a mile as best and as fast as he can, formulates a training plan, engages people, executes the training plan, and then runs the mile as best he can. It's not rocket science. It's running.

robinph · 05-08-2016 03:37PM

walshb wrote: »

It's self explanatory. I would take it to mean that Bolt wakes up, sets himself a goal to run a mile as best and as fast as he can, formulates a training plan, engages people, executes the training plan, and then runs the mile as best he can. It's not rocket science. It's running.

But is this a couple of weeks, months or years of training?

walshb · 05-08-2016 04:08PM

robinph wrote: »

But is this a couple of weeks, months or years of training?

I don't know. Ask Bolt.

Not sure why this has to be questioned.

How fast can Bolt run a mile? Right now with 0 specific mile training he probably gets close to 5 minutes. That's just my guess.

I am not an athletics trainer. But I'd imagine with a trainer and resources and effort, Bolt could run sub 5 minutes. Whether that be weeks or months or years of training for it is up to him. Depends when he wants to actually run the mile.

robinph · 05-08-2016 04:59PM

walshb wrote: »

I don't know. Ask Bolt.

Not sure why this has to be questioned.

How fast can Bolt run a mile? Right now with 0 specific mile training he probably gets close to 5 minutes. That's just my guess.

I am not an athletics trainer. But I'd imagine with a trainer and resources and effort, Bolt could run sub 5 minutes. Whether that be weeks or months or years of training for it is up to him. Depends when he wants to actually run the mile.

The how long he'd have to prepare is very relevant. Doubt he'd get sub 5 at the moment, if he'd even complete the distance going at that pace. Wouldn't expect him to be able to do it without someone running the pace for him either.

In 6 months he'd be able to do it easily I think. But not now.

robinph · 05-08-2016 05:05PM

Not the same standard in his event, and was even running a longer event, but Iwan Thomas seems to have only been able to knock out a 20 minute parkrun a year or so after quitting sprints.

http://www.powerof10.info/athletes/profile.aspx?athleteid=1604

So not quite at his peak, not on perfect courses and not going full effort, but he's a way off 5 minute mileing pace.

adrian522 · 05-08-2016 05:17PM

I see David Gillick ran a parkrun in 18:47 which equates to a 5:24 mile according to mcMillian so I'd have to think with a bit of specific training Bolt would get there if he was bothered about it (which he is most probably not).

Chivito550 · 05-08-2016 05:28PM

adrian522 wrote: »

I see David Gillick ran a parkrun in 18:47 which equates to a 5:24 mile according to mcMillian so I'd have to think with a bit of specific training Bolt would get there if he was bothered about it (which he is most probably not).

Gillick has run around 4:30 for mile at road relays.

Chivito550 · 05-08-2016 05:32PM

robinph wrote: »

Not the same standard in his event, and was even running a longer event, but Iwan Thomas seems to have only been able to knock out a 20 minute parkrun a year or so after quitting sprints.

http://www.powerof10.info/athletes/profile.aspx?athleteid=1604

So not quite at his peak, not on perfect courses and not going full effort, but he's a way off 5 minute mileing pace.

Yeh but that's for 3.1 miles. Kind of irrelevant that. 5k is different. But Thomas was a 44 mid 400 runner. 400m runners are very fit and are good aerobically. Thomas would comfortably have run sub 5.

And "not quite at his peak" is an understatement. His peak was late 90s, 15 years before he decided to hack about at Parkruns.

Jayop · 05-08-2016 05:36PM

If he ran like bejeesus for as long as he could and walked the rest he'd still get close.

ultrapercy · 05-08-2016 07:35PM

Jayop wrote: »

If he ran like bejeesus for as long as he could and walked the rest he'd still get close.

No he wouldn't that would be the absolute worst approach.

El Caballo · 05-08-2016 09:01PM

What makes bolt such a legend would give him little chance at breaking 5 in mile imo, those fast twitch fibers. To be the fastest man in history, you've got to have ridiculously explosive muscles and while I don't doubt that sprinters can be aerobically fit to an high level, you're talking about an already genetic freak in a pure explosive event like the 100 and he would have to be a 90 odd percenter in an event completely removed from his genetic buildup, I don't see it happening. Micheal Johnson was on the endurance side of the sprint events and worked his a$$ off, didn't have the same explosive firepower of Bolt to run the 100 and could barely break 5, Bolt wouldn't get close to MJ in term of endurance.

Not saying there isn't freaks of range out there, Ireland's Mark Caroll was one who has an official low 21 second 200m and a 2.10 marathon which is astonishing in my opinion but all Bolts strengths and freakishish would pay against him.

Pherekydes · 05-08-2016 09:19PM

El Caballo wrote: »

Not saying there isn't freaks of range out there, Ireland's Mark Caroll was one who has an official low 21 second 200m and a 2.10 marathon which is astonishing in my opinion but all Bolts strengths and freakishish would pay against him.

Mark Carroll ranks 40th all-time at 800m, so there's no way he makes the top thirty at 200m. He doesn't even rank in the top 76 at 400m.

"How fast would Usain Bolt run the mile".

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