"How fast would Usain Bolt run the mile".

Chivito550

A pointless, but nonetheless fun and interesting debate.

http://www.newyorker.com/news/sporting-scene/how-fast-would-usain-bolt-run-the-mile

People saying he has no chance of a sub 5 mile.

dr.fuzzenstein

Well, a mile has 1609.34 meters in it, rounding up a tiny bit, that is 16.1 hundred meter races. Multiply that by 9.58 (his 100 meter time) and there you have it!
He would run that distance in 2.57 minutes.

tailgunner

dr.fuzzenstein wrote: »

Well, a mile has 1609.34 meters in it, rounding up a tiny bit, that is 16.1 hundred meter races. Multiply that by 9.58 (his 100 meter time) and there you have it!
He would run that distance in 2.57 minutes.

Nah. His first 100 metres would be 9.58 seconds, but the rest would be a lot quicker as he's already at top speed.

KielyUnusual

tailgunner wrote: »

Nah. His first 100 metres would be 9.58 seconds, but the rest would be a lot quicker as he's already at top speed.

Yea, but that would probably be balanced out by slowing down a little going round the bends. Sprinters like straight lines. Mile on a road now. Sub 2.30, no bother.

BeepBeep67

Depends on who was knocking on the door!

BeepBeep67

In all seriousness I would expect he could go sub 5.
I'm usually surprised at how quick the decathletes can run 1500m at the end of 2 tough days, sub 4:30 is not unusual.

morceli

BeepBeep67 wrote: »

In all seriousness I would expect he could go sub 5.
I'm usually surprised at how quick the decathletes can run 1500m at the end of 2 tough days, sub 4:30 is not unusual.

I'd say 4/45-5 would be possible if he trained a bit, but I doubt he would fancy the longer training runs. Still would love to see him have a go at he long jump think he could put in a decent effort.

Yurt2

Actually, I wonder what kind of decathlete Bolt would make. He would possibly struggle with the throwing events but would make an extremely good fist at everything else.

I'd love to see him try out the long jump.

Krusty_Clown

Gut-feel response, but I find it hard to believe that he couldn't manage a sub 5. A guy who can run a 400m in 45-48 seconds should be able to cruise around, dropping 12-15 seconds a lap.

walshb

With no training I'd imagine he'd be close to 5 mins, maybe sub 5. With training he could be 4.40 or slightly less.

Chivito550

Michael Johnson used to do mile time trials as part of winter training I believe, and supposedly only sneaked under 5 minutes.

Chivito550

Krusty_Clown wrote: »

Gut-feel response, but I find it hard to believe that he couldn't manage a sub 5. A guy who can run a 400m in 45-48 seconds should be able to cruise around, dropping 12-15 seconds a lap.

45 +15 = 60 secs, which is 4 minute mileing.

Assume you meant 25 seconds. You're probably right. I ran the 1500 equivalent of 5:15 at the end of a decathlon and I was only running 54/55 for 400. You'd imagine an elite 400 runner would manage it comfortably, but a 100 guy who already had a huge drop off at 400 is going to keep seeing dramatic drop offs after that. John Regis told me last year at the media race he ran 2:11 over 800m on Superstars when he was in 45.xx 400m shape (he was sub 20 for 200). No way that guy would be getting under 5.

Chivito550

Yurt! wrote: »

Actually, I wonder what kind of decathlete Bolt would make. He would possibly struggle with the throwing events but would make an extremely good fist at everything else.

I'd love to see him try out the long jump.

His 100 and 400 would obviously be off the charts for decathlon. His long jump he could bluff based on speed, but he would not be world class. There's so much technique in it and he has no background in it at all.

The rest of the events he'd struggle at. His shot, javelin and discus would be miserable. Ditto his pole vault. Can't bluff hurdles just on speed. He'd be too fast with no technique. That doesn't end well. High jump he'd probably do ok to be honest. 1500 would be standard decathlon 1500, so would do ok there.

average_runner

Chivito550 wrote: »

His 100 and 400 would obviously be off the charts for decathlon. His long jump he could bluff based on speed, but he would not be world class. There's so much technique in it and he has no background in it at all.

The rest of the events he'd struggle at. His shot, javelin and discus would be miserable. Ditto his pole vault. Can't bluff hurdles just on speed. He'd be too fast with no technique. That doesn't end well. High jump he'd probably do ok to be honest. 1500 would be standard decathlon 1500, so would do ok there.

DId he not do the long jump as a kid?

Chivito550

average_runner wrote: »

DId he not do the long jump as a kid?

No idea. Doing anything as a kid is meaningless. He didn't do it through his teens when he was moulding into a class athlete. Carl Lewis did. That's the difference. You can't just pick up an event like that and expect to compete with the world's best IMO. Would have been nice to have seen him try it back in 09 though when he was mouthing on about trying everything. It was only ever talk though, much like the 600 races with Bekele and also Farah.

ultrapercy

walshb wrote: »

With no training I'd imagine he'd be close to 5 mins, maybe sub 5. With training he could be 4.40 or slightly less.

What does "with training" mean in your view? Is it a month of mile reps or 4 to 10 years of 100 miles a week where his body weight and composition is altered to that of a middle distance runner? If it's the latter I'm sure he could go much faster than 70 sec laps if it's the former he doesn't break 5 imo. Mile requires more endurance than speed, it's 4 times Bolts maximum distance that's a long way to hang on.

RasTa

I bet he has...

Bolt’s agent, Ricky Simms, won’t say whether he believes that his client could run a mile in less than five minutes. But Simms confirmed, over e-mail, that the world’s greatest sprinter has, in fact, never tried running that far: “Usain has never run a mile.”

walshb

RasTa wrote: »

I bet he has...

He's Jamaican. Not a hope he'd run a mile!

gramar

I think if he went training this morning and attempted a sub 5 minute mile he's struggle though I doubt he'd be too far off, maybe 5:10/5:20.
I'm sure though that with a few weeks specific training he'd manage it fairly easily.

walshb

ultrapercy wrote: »

What does "with training" mean in your view? Is it a month of mile reps or 4 to 10 years of 100 miles a week where his body weight and composition is altered to that of a middle distance runner? If it's the latter I'm sure he could go much faster than 70 sec laps if it's the former he doesn't break 5 imo. Mile requires more endurance than speed, it's 4 times Bolts maximum distance that's a long way to hang on.

It's self explanatory. I would take it to mean that Bolt wakes up, sets himself a goal to run a mile as best and as fast as he can, formulates a training plan, engages people, executes the training plan, and then runs the mile as best he can. It's not rocket science. It's running.

robinph

walshb wrote: »

It's self explanatory. I would take it to mean that Bolt wakes up, sets himself a goal to run a mile as best and as fast as he can, formulates a training plan, engages people, executes the training plan, and then runs the mile as best he can. It's not rocket science. It's running.

But is this a couple of weeks, months or years of training?

walshb

robinph wrote: »

But is this a couple of weeks, months or years of training?

I don't know. Ask Bolt.

Not sure why this has to be questioned.

How fast can Bolt run a mile? Right now with 0 specific mile training he probably gets close to 5 minutes. That's just my guess.

I am not an athletics trainer. But I'd imagine with a trainer and resources and effort, Bolt could run sub 5 minutes. Whether that be weeks or months or years of training for it is up to him. Depends when he wants to actually run the mile.

robinph

walshb wrote: »

I don't know. Ask Bolt.

Not sure why this has to be questioned.

How fast can Bolt run a mile? Right now with 0 specific mile training he probably gets close to 5 minutes. That's just my guess.

I am not an athletics trainer. But I'd imagine with a trainer and resources and effort, Bolt could run sub 5 minutes. Whether that be weeks or months or years of training for it is up to him. Depends when he wants to actually run the mile.

The how long he'd have to prepare is very relevant. Doubt he'd get sub 5 at the moment, if he'd even complete the distance going at that pace. Wouldn't expect him to be able to do it without someone running the pace for him either.

In 6 months he'd be able to do it easily I think. But not now.

robinph

Not the same standard in his event, and was even running a longer event, but Iwan Thomas seems to have only been able to knock out a 20 minute parkrun a year or so after quitting sprints.

http://www.powerof10.info/athletes/profile.aspx?athleteid=1604

So not quite at his peak, not on perfect courses and not going full effort, but he's a way off 5 minute mileing pace.

adrian522

I see David Gillick ran a parkrun in 18:47 which equates to a 5:24 mile according to mcMillian so I'd have to think with a bit of specific training Bolt would get there if he was bothered about it (which he is most probably not).

Chivito550

adrian522 wrote: »

I see David Gillick ran a parkrun in 18:47 which equates to a 5:24 mile according to mcMillian so I'd have to think with a bit of specific training Bolt would get there if he was bothered about it (which he is most probably not).

Gillick has run around 4:30 for mile at road relays.

Chivito550

robinph wrote: »

Not the same standard in his event, and was even running a longer event, but Iwan Thomas seems to have only been able to knock out a 20 minute parkrun a year or so after quitting sprints.

http://www.powerof10.info/athletes/profile.aspx?athleteid=1604

So not quite at his peak, not on perfect courses and not going full effort, but he's a way off 5 minute mileing pace.

Yeh but that's for 3.1 miles. Kind of irrelevant that. 5k is different. But Thomas was a 44 mid 400 runner. 400m runners are very fit and are good aerobically. Thomas would comfortably have run sub 5.

And "not quite at his peak" is an understatement. His peak was late 90s, 15 years before he decided to hack about at Parkruns.

Jayop

If he ran like bejeesus for as long as he could and walked the rest he'd still get close.

ultrapercy

Jayop wrote: »

If he ran like bejeesus for as long as he could and walked the rest he'd still get close.

No he wouldn't that would be the absolute worst approach.

El Caballo

What makes bolt such a legend would give him little chance at breaking 5 in mile imo, those fast twitch fibers. To be the fastest man in history, you've got to have ridiculously explosive muscles and while I don't doubt that sprinters can be aerobically fit to an high level, you're talking about an already genetic freak in a pure explosive event like the 100 and he would have to be a 90 odd percenter in an event completely removed from his genetic buildup, I don't see it happening. Micheal Johnson was on the endurance side of the sprint events and worked his a$$ off, didn't have the same explosive firepower of Bolt to run the 100 and could barely break 5, Bolt wouldn't get close to MJ in term of endurance.

Not saying there isn't freaks of range out there, Ireland's Mark Caroll was one who has an official low 21 second 200m and a 2.10 marathon which is astonishing in my opinion but all Bolts strengths and freakishish would pay against him.

Pherekydes

El Caballo wrote: »

Not saying there isn't freaks of range out there, Ireland's Mark Caroll was one who has an official low 21 second 200m and a 2.10 marathon which is astonishing in my opinion but all Bolts strengths and freakishish would pay against him.

Mark Carroll ranks 40th all-time at 800m, so there's no way he makes the top thirty at 200m. He doesn't even rank in the top 76 at 400m.

Jayop

ultrapercy wrote: »

No he wouldn't that would be the absolute worst approach.

Thought I was in AH

Wasn't being serious.

Chivito550

El Caballo wrote: »

What makes bolt such a legend would give him little chance at breaking 5 in mile imo, those fast twitch fibers. To be the fastest man in history, you've got to have ridiculously explosive muscles and while I don't doubt that sprinters can be aerobically fit to an high level, you're talking about an already genetic freak in a pure explosive event like the 100 and he would have to be a 90 odd percenter in an event completely removed from his genetic buildup, I don't see it happening. Micheal Johnson was on the endurance side of the sprint events and worked his a$$ off, didn't have the same explosive firepower of Bolt to run the 100 and could barely break 5, Bolt wouldn't get close to MJ in term of endurance.

Not saying there isn't freaks of range out there, Ireland's Mark Caroll was one who has an official low 21 second 200m and a 2.10 marathon which is astonishing in my opinion but all Bolts strengths and freakishish would pay against him.

Carroll ran low 21 for 200? I find that very hard to believe. Gillick hasn't even broke 21. Any link to this?

gramar

Chivito550 wrote: »

Carroll ran low 21 for 200? I find that very hard to believe. Gillick hasn't even broke 21. Any link to this?

Not according to this he hasn't.
http://www.all-athletics.com/en-us/athlete/45217

Mellor

El Caballo wrote: »

What makes bolt such a legend would give him little chance at breaking 5 in mile imo, those fast twitch fibers.

Those fast twitch muscles mean he's never be elite in the mile, not that he wouldn't be able to finish.
Elite is sub 4 minutes. Sub 5 mins is rather average. Saying he doesn't get under 5 minutes is insane into.

I ran a mile event for charity a while ago in 5m27s.
That was with no real training, a couple of 1600's on the treadmill. Ran less than 10km this year.
There's no way thy Bolt doesn't blitz that time. Has he ran 800m?. That would be the best indicator of mile performance imo.

walshb

robinph wrote: »

In 6 months he'd be able to do it easily I think. But not now.

Agreed. But I think he'd do it with less than 6 months prep. I think he's being sold a little short here.

Panrich

walshb wrote: »

Agreed. But I think he'd do it with less than 6 months prep. I think he's being sold a little short here.

I'd say he'd run a mile to get away from having to do that though.

gramar

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=100589704&postcount=2530

The David Gillick interview about Parkrun is a bit of an eye opener. He raced 400m and said he didn't know what would happen at 410m.
I'm suprised sprint athletes don't seem to do longer runs just for general aerobic fitness. If Bolt is the same and doesn't now run beyond 200m then a 5 minute mile might be more difficult than I would have thought for him.

Mellor

gramar wrote: »

I'm suprised sprint athletes don't seem to do longer runs just for general aerobic fitness.

I'm not surprised tbh. Sprinting is more anaerobic, he's not going to invest time in general training that doesn't further than goal.

If Bolt is the same and doesn't now run beyond 200m then a 5 minute mile might be more difficult than I would have thought for him.

I still don't think it would be remotely difficult for him. His aerobic capacity will be nowhere near the same elite level as his anaerobic, but he doesn't need it to be remotely near that level. 5 mins is not that high a standard.
If he increased his 400m pace from 45 to 75 seconds, he's complete a mile in 5. That would be sustainable imo.
I'd say he's get around in 4:30 tbh.

Chivito550

gramar wrote: »

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=100589704&postcount=2530

The David Gillick interview about Parkrun is a bit of an eye opener. He raced 400m and said he didn't know what would happen at 410m.
I'm suprised sprint athletes don't seem to do longer runs just for general aerobic fitness. If Bolt is the same and doesn't now run beyond 200m then a 5 minute mile might be more difficult than I would have thought for him.

Utter nonsense. He's saying that for dramatic effect. He has run a 4:30 mile. He would have done countless reps over 400m in distance. I'm certain he did fartlek runs too. 400m runners are super fit. I've seen guys who are only around 49-50 seconds still knock out 17 mins for 5k off 400m training.

Maurice Greene supposedly ran 17 for 5K and he was a 100/200 specialist.

I've run 4:52 for 1500 at the end of a decathlon (equivalent to 5:15 mile) and gone sub 20 5k off the back of 400m training. So why on earth wouldn't elite 400m runners be better!

Chivito550

Mellor wrote: »

I'm not surprised tbh. Sprinting is more anaerobic, he's not going to invest time in general training that doesn't further than goal.


I still don't think it would be remotely difficult for him. His aerobic capacity will be nowhere near the same elite level as his anaerobic, but he doesn't need it to be remotely near that level. 5 mins is not that high a standard.
If he increased his 400m pace from 45 to 75 seconds, he's complete a mile in 5. That would be sustainable imo.
I'd say he's get around in 4:30 tbh.

No chance in hell Bolt runs 4:30.

Mellor

Chivito550 wrote: »

No chance in hell Bolt runs 4:30.

You've no evidence or logic to back that claim up, I'm not going to just take your word for it.

Chivito550

Mellor wrote: »

You've no evidence or logic to back that claim up, I'm not going to just take your word for it.

I have knowledge of how the sport works. I'd love to know what you are basing your prediction off.

I also follow the decathlon, and the guys who are best at the first 9 events (power athletes) are the worst at the 1500. Many of them are way outside 4:30 for 1500, let alone a mile.

Mellor

Chivito550 wrote: »

I have knowledge of how the sport works. I'd love to know what you are basing your prediction off.

What specific knowledge of the sport are you talking about?
I imagine there are zero middle distance runners who do 5min miles. So there is no sample there.
I just can't see how his pace would need to fall by so much in order to finish a mile. The article quoted a 2:10 800m, but I don'know where that came from.

I also follow the decathlon, and the guys who are best at the first 9 events (power athletes) are the worst at the 1500. Many of them are way outside 4:30 for 1500, let alone a mile.

Granted, I don't follow the decathlon. But Id guess that each of them would run a fresh 1500m race at least a few seconds faster.

What do you think it takes to go sub 5min mile?

BeepBeep67

Chivito550 wrote: »

I have knowledge of how the sport works. I'd love to know what you are basing your prediction off.

I also follow the decathlon, and the guys who are best at the first 9 events (power athletes) are the worst at the 1500. Many of them are way outside 4:30 for 1500, let alone a mile.

Top guys can go low 10's and sub 4:30 though, or is that just a few outliers like Eaton?

Chivito550

BeepBeep67 wrote: »

Top guys can go low 10's and sub 4:30 though, or is that just a few outliers like Eaton?

Eaton is a freak, the greatest all rounder in history and his 4:14 1500m is still not even 4:30 for a mile.

Chivito550

Mellor wrote: »

What specific knowledge of the sport are you talking about?
I imagine there are zero middle distance runners who do 5min miles. So there is no sample there.
I just can't see how his pace would need to fall by so much in order to finish a mile. The article quoted a 2:10 800m, but I don'know where that came from.


Granted, I don't follow the decathlon. But Id guess that each of them would run a fresh 1500m race at least a few seconds faster.

What do you think it takes to go sub 5min mile?

How closely do you honestly follow the sport?

Bolt is a fast twitch fibre machine. An explosive animal. It's what makes him such a phenomen over 100 and 200. He does not have the body composition to run a 4:30 mile off the back of sprint training. To suggest so is ludicrous. There's a massive difference between 4:30 and 5:00.

Mellor

Chivito550 wrote: »

How closely do you honestly follow the sport?

Bolt is a fast twitch fibre machine. An explosive animal. It's what makes him such a phenomen over 100 and 200. He does not have the body composition to run a 4:30 mile off the back of sprint training. To suggest so is ludicrous. There's a massive difference between 4:30 and 5:00.

I think it's ludicrous to say he'd never run sub 5 tbh. I don't consider a 5min mile to be in any way only attainable by geneticly gifted. I reckon I could do it myself with any sort of training.
I never said he'd run he 4:30 off the back of sprint training either. Not sure where you got that. Being a fast twitch machine means he'll never be elite over a mile. There's a world of difference between 4:30 and sub 3:50

gramar

Mellor wrote: »

I think it's ludicrous to say he'd never run sub 5 tbh. I don't consider a 5min mile to be in any way only attainable by geneticly gifted. I reckon I could do it myself with any sort of training.
I never said he'd run he 4:30 off the back of sprint training either. Not sure where you got that. Being a fast twitch machine means he'll never be elite over a mile. There's a world of difference between 4:30 and sub 3:50

I don't think anyone is saying he'd never do it but if he's doing no middle distance training whatsover and only preparing the 100m and 200m then without specific training he'd find it very difficult to just get up off his arse and do a mile in less than 5min.

Chivito550

Mellor wrote: »

I think it's ludicrous to say he'd never run sub 5 tbh. I don't consider a 5min mile to be in any way only attainable by geneticly gifted. I reckon I could do it myself with any sort of training.
I never said he'd run he 4:30 off the back of sprint training either. Not sure where you got that. Being a fast twitch machine means he'll never be elite over a mile. There's a world of difference between 4:30 and sub 3:50

I never said he wouldn't run sub 5. I said he wouldn't run 4:30, the stupid claim you made, which shows fundamental lack of knowledge of not just sprinting, but also middle distance running.

Watch this video of Carl Lewis blowing up to a 2:16 800m on superstars. Not even 4:30 mile pace for half the distance.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DTlrdczjjOA

Irrelevant what you think you could run yourself. I'd hazard a guess you are not a sprinter busting your ass in the gym building explosive power.

It's Olympic season on AR!

walshb

As Mellor said, he never made a 4.30 or sub 5 claim off sprint training. Sub 5 off some proper training is very achievable. I'd think 4.40 or so a possibility with effective preparation.