"How fast would Usain Bolt run the mile".

Chivito550

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=65FxQ3Ej7WY

LaShawn Merritt talks about the 800 here. Said he ran it back in college and only managed 1:58 off his 200/400 training.

He said even if he focuses on it, he'd perhaps break 1:50, a far cry from the 44 or whatever he was running in college.

Bolt has less endurance that Merritt, being a 100/200 guy.

Mellor

Chivito550 wrote: »

40/60 is hedging my bets to be honest as we don't have enough info to go on. If the 2:10 800m is a current time or a time performed from 2007 onwards, then I would say 0:100 that he would break 5.

Michael Johnson only barely broke 5, and he is much faster over 400 than Bolt.

Off a few weeks training? A bit. Not much though. Likely improvements would come from pacing. He won't get much aerobically fitter in a few weeks.

These guys aren't built for distance. Ashton Eaton is the GOAT all rounder and he's only operating at about 4:35 mileing. Bolt as a specialised 100/200 guy would be nowhere near him.

400m guys on the other hand are different. Every elite endurance based 400 runner should be comfortably under 5. The speed based 400 guys might be a bit different.

Any idea where that 2:10 800m came from? Had a look around and only found the same article, or references to similar discussions.
Yeah I was thinking more of getting a feel for his best pace, rather than CV improvements. If he just tried it with zero prep, he'd set off way too fast.

Johnson barely under 5, surprised at that too. Is that an actual time he did?


The all-rounder talk reminds me of an america powerlifter type who also crosstrained with a fair bit of running. Can't remeber off have what his times were for he had a decent mile time, for a gut who was squatting massive numbers, and also dipped his toes in the endurance side of things

Mellor

Chivito550 wrote: »

40/60 is hedging my bets to be honest as we don't have enough info to go on. If the 2:10 800m is a current time or a time performed from 2007 onwards, then I would say 0:100 that he would break 5.

Michael Johnson only barely broke 5, and he is much faster over 400 than Bolt.

Off a few weeks training? A bit. Not much though. Likely improvements would come from pacing. He won't get much aerobically fitter in a few weeks.

These guys aren't built for distance. Ashton Eaton is the GOAT all rounder and he's only operating at about 4:35 mileing. Bolt as a specialised 100/200 guy would be nowhere near him.

400m guys on the other hand are different. Every elite endurance based 400 runner should be comfortably under 5. The speed based 400 guys might be a bit different.

Any idea where that 2:10 800m came from? Had a look around and only found the same article, or references to similar discussions.
Yeah I was thinking more of getting a feel for his best pace, rather than CV improvements. If he just tried it with zero prep, he'd set off way too fast.

Johnson barely under 5, surprised at that too. Is that an actual time he did?


The all-rounder talk reminds me of an america powerlifter type who also crosstrained with a fair bit of running. Can't remeber off have what his times were for he had a decent mile time, for a gut who was squatting massive numbers, and also dipped his toes in the ultra side of things.
Alex Viada, it appears a lot of people don't believe his claims. And couldn't find much to back them up.

Chivito550

Mellor wrote: »

Any idea where that 2:10 800m came from? Had a look around and only found the same article, or references to similar discussions.
Yeah I was thinking more of getting a feel for his best pace, rather than CV improvements. If he just tried it with zero prep, he'd set off way too fast.

Johnson barely under 5, surprised at that too. Is that an actual time he did?


The all-rounder talk reminds me of an america powerlifter type who also crosstrained with a fair bit of running. Can't remeber off have what his times were for he had a decent mile time, for a gut who was squatting massive numbers, and also dipped his toes in the ultra side of things.
Alex Viada, it appears a lot of people don't believe his claims. And couldn't find much to back them up.

No idea where the 2:10 comes from. Seems slow but then again Carl Lewis running that 2:16 makes it plausible. John Regis told me in Beijing last year that his best 800 was a 2:11 at Superstars, when he was in 45 400m shape. He was (still is) an absolute tank. Hauling that amount of muscle around for 800 is tough going. Regis would not have been remotely near sub 5 for the mile.

Important to understand different body types when it comes to different disciplines.

Yeh read something before about MJ doing mile time trials in off season.

I'd call BS on that powerlifter btw.

Chivito550

Regis may have been spoofing me, or else he did superstars more than once, but in 2003 he ran 2:20 for 800m, with Colin Jackson not much better at 2:18.

http://www.thesuperstars.org/comp/03gbr1.html

robinph

Chivito550 wrote: »

Regis may have been spoofing me, or else he did superstars more than once, but in 2003 he ran 2:20 for 800m, with Colin Jackson not much better at 2:18.

http://www.thesuperstars.org/comp/03gbr1.html

Could have been a christmas/ Children in need/ some other reason "special" episode which he'd have had the profile to be picked for.

Chivito550

robinph wrote: »

Could have been a christmas/ Children in need/ some other reason "special" episode which he'd have had the profile to be picked for.

Who knows. Irrelevant really. All I'm trying to show is that there is nothing aerobic about these guys. 400m runners. Certainly. Big bulky 100m machines. Not so much. You can get exceptions of course.

laura_ac3

Chivito550 wrote: »

laura_ac3 wrote: »

Well my first was referencing the article to highlight how some may find merit in different aspects of the conversation. The reason i found KU's so interesting was due to the insight it offered to support his opinion and amounted to more than simply stating "you're wrong", unlike others.

You're right however in that at this stage I'm offering nothing further to the discussion so I'll leave you all to it.

Be interesting to hear your thoughts on what you think Bolt could run for a mile.

I honestly wouldn't have a notion. I don't have enough knowledge of the different disciplines to hazard a particular time guess, although I find the topic interesting to read about to learn more.

My first thought reading it was certainly that the things that make him good at what he does doesn't just translate across to a good mile time. I'd also imagine that whatever pace started out would be unsustainable throughout which would be a big problem. For some reason my gut answer would be sub 5 would be too much of an ask on a first occasion. Although I can't put my finger on why I think that.

Mary Prior

The man is legend!

Wild Garlic

Mary Prior wrote: »

The man is legend!

You're thinking of Will Smith.

bucketybuck

Chivito550 wrote: »

If you want to interpret it like that then that's up to you entirely.

Your tone in this entire thread leaves no other interpretation.

Chivito550

The man himself is certain he'd go under 5 anyway.

http://www.flotrack.org/article/46479-usain-bolt-says-of-course-i-could-break-five-minutes-in-the-mile

KielyUnusual

Chivito550 wrote: »

The man himself is certain he'd go under 5 anyway.

http://www.flotrack.org/article/46479-usain-bolt-says-of-course-i-could-break-five-minutes-in-the-mile

The man has self belief, I'll give him that. Still reckon he'd struggle

Chivito550

KielyUnusual wrote: »

The man has self belief, I'll give him that. Still reckon he'd struggle

If his drop off from 45/46 for 400 to 2:07 is anything to go by then I'd expect an even worse drop off from 800 to mile.

He might be confusing the mile with the 1500 to be honest.

dna_leri

Chivito550 wrote: »

He might be confusing the mile with the 1500 to be honest.

I doubt it
a) he is not an idiot
b) Jamaica have a similar relationship with the imperial system as Ireland - started metrication in the 1970s and completed in the 2000s

Chivito550

dna_leri wrote: »

I doubt it
a) he is not an idiot
b) Jamaica have a similar relationship with the imperial system as Ireland - started metrication in the 1970s and completed in the 2000s

Not an idiot, but seems oblivious to the idea that 2:07 for 800 for a 9.8/19.7/46 (at present) runner is not exactly something that hints at an easy sub 5 mile.that is a huge drop off and I'd expect an even worse drop off from 800 to mile.

robinph

Chivito550 wrote: »

Not an idiot, but seems oblivious to the idea that 2:07 for 800 for a 9.8/19.7/46 (at present) runner is not exactly something that hints at an easy sub 5 mile.that is a huge drop off and I'd expect an even worse drop off from 800 to mile.

The 100m and 200m times for him are just double it and your close enough so he probably hasn't got the same concept of how much you slow down when you go longer programmed into his way of thinking. The 400m time should give him some clues though that things get slower, and especially the 800m time.

He probably thinks he can do a 1:40 800m with a little bit of effort based on his 400m time.

Not an idiot, but just not thinking about it properly.

Mellor

Chivito550 wrote: »

Not an idiot, but seems oblivious to the idea that 2:07 for 800 for a 9.8/19.7/46 (at present) runner is not exactly something that hints at an easy sub 5 mile.that is a huge drop off and I'd expect an even worse drop off from 800 to mile.

The fall off is worse due to his exceptional sprint times. His second 800m will definitely be slower (as would everyone) but he has plenty of room for fall off.
It's not like he'll take off and do the first 200m/400m in 20s/45s.

Forget about the sprints. Take the 2:07 800m in isolation. What would a normal mile time be for a typical 2:07 runner?

robinph wrote: »

He probably thinks he can do a 1:40 800m with a little bit of effort based on his 400m time..

Where are you pulling that from?
He literally said he does 2:07 for 800m.

1:40 would break the current world record. I hardly thinks he believes that.

Chivito550

Mellor wrote: »

The fall off is worse due to his exceptional sprint times. His second 800m will definitely be slower (as would everyone) but he has plenty of room for fall off.
It's not like he'll take off and do the first 200m/400m in 20s/45s.

Forget about the sprints. Take the 2:07 800m in isolation. What would a normal mile time be for a typical 2:07 runner?


Where are you pulling that from?
He literally said he does 2:07 for 800m.

1:40 would break the current world record. I hardly thinks he believes that.

You can't take the 2:07 in isolation. A sprinter who runs sub 20 for 200 is not going to run the same time for the mile as an 800 runner or miler who runs 2:07.

2:07 equates to about 4:45 going by IAAF tables, but somebody who trains specifically for 800 who runs 2:07 will be running a good bit slower than 4:45 for the mile. Somebody who trains as a miler who can run 2:07, will run a good deal faster for the mile.

If 2:07 is all Bolt can run then he has no chance of sub 5. That drop off from 400 to 800 is massive and a runner of his body composition is not going to stem this tide when the distance doubles once more.

robinph

Mellor wrote: »

Where are you pulling that from?
He literally said he does 2:07 for 800m.

1:40 would break the current world record. I hardly thinks he believes that.

Only speaking relatively in that he has no knowledge, or care I expect, of the distance and relative times. It's 16 times further than he normally runs and I doubt he put a whole lot of thought into the answer.

Quick fire question, and don't think about it too long, what time do you think you'd do for 400 miles? If someone told you a benchmark time for the distance was to go sub 4 days, would sub 5 days seem a reasonable quick guesstimate to a daft question?

(note: numbers plucked out of nowhere and mean nothing)

Mellor

Chivito550 wrote: »

sprinter who runs sub 20 for 200 is not going to run the same time for the mile as an 800 runner or miler who runs 2:07.

I didn't say they would. I just asked about the typical.

2:07 equates to about 4:45 going by IAAF tables...

How they work out those tables? Out of curiosity?

I came across a few formulas recently, when looking into some stuff on VO2max. Cameron, Riegel, etc
http://www.runningforfitness.org/calc/racepaces/rp
One returns 4:45, another 4:26. The average is 4:35.
Now I'm not suggesting a typical conversion is relevant to Bolt. But a 25 second cushion is a lot over that distance.

I think we can probably agree that he'd be 5min ballpark. We won't know whether he is a few seconds under or over unless he runs a mile flat out, which is unlikely.

Chivito550

Mellor wrote: »

I didn't say they would. I just asked about the typical.


How they work out those tables? Out of curiosity?

I came across a few formulas recently, when looking into some stuff on VO2max. Cameron, Riegel, etc
http://www.runningforfitness.org/calc/racepaces/rp
One returns 4:45, another 4:26. The average is 4:35.
Now I'm not suggesting a typical conversion is relevant to Bolt. But a 25 second cushion is a lot over that distance.

I think we can probably agree that he'd be 5min ballpark. We won't know whether he is a few seconds under or over unless he runs a mile flat out, which is unlikely.

He runs 400 in 46. Double that and you have 92. He ran 127 seconds for 800m. That's a 35 second drop off over one lap. Amazed how you think he could just stem this tide over TWO further laps.

The IAAF tables are based on statistical data. Anybody who follows the sport closely know that 2:07 and 4:45 are pretty much equivalent performances. The IAAF tables compare performances across events. They do not indicate potential.

Those other tables are irrelevant. They assume you are training for the mile and give a prediction of potential based on your 800 time IF you do the training.

As I have said, if a 46 second runner can only run 2:07 then he has zero chance of sub 5. That is a shocking drop off.

KielyUnusual

Chivito550 wrote: »

He runs 400 in 46. Double that and you have 92. He ran 127 seconds for 800m. That's a 35 second drop off over one lap. Amazed how you think he could just stem this tide over TWO further laps.

The IAAF tables are based on statistical data. Anybody who follows the sport closely know that 2:07 and 4:45 are pretty much equivalent performances. The IAAF tables compare performances across events. They do not indicate potential.

Those other tables are irrelevant. They assume you are training for the mile and give a prediction of potential based on your 800 time IF you do the training.

As I have said, if a 46 second runner can only run 2:07 then he has zero chance of sub 5. That is a shocking drop off.

Probably some context missing here in that the 46 is from an actual race, for an event that he used to specifically train for. I'm guessing the 800 was from a time trial or similar, as I've not heard any mention of it prior to the man himself bringing it up. If there was an official result, I'm sure it would have come up in the debate before now. With this in mind, you could probably take a few seconds off the 800m time. This still leaves it in the region of a sub 4.40 mile equivalent performance. Again this assumes that an athlete training specifically for the 800m running a 2.05ish time is an equivalent performance to an athelete training specifically for the mile running a time just under 4.40. Bolt is a 100/200 runner, which is a world away from the training that any world class miler would do. The more I think about it, the more I'm tending to agree with chivito, that he would have no chance of going sub 5 for the mile.

IvoryTower

I still think he'd do it no bother, hope he tries it someday!

Chivito550

I think to have any chance he would need an experienced distance running pacer to bring him around in even splits. Put him out on his own and it would be a sh1t show. People forget that sprinters are horrible at pacing distance events. The concept is completely alien to a power based athlete. Sure look at Ashton Eaton at the Worlds last year when he broke the WR. He ran 4:14 for the 1500 yet finished in 29 for the last 200, which is so silly.

KielyUnusual

Chivito550 wrote: »

I think to have any chance he would need an experienced distance running pacer to bring him around in even splits. Put him out on his own and it would be a sh1t show. People forget that sprinters are horrible at pacing distance events. The concept is completely alien to a power based athlete. Sure look at Ashton Eaton at the Worlds last year when he broke the WR. He ran 4:14 for the 1500 yet finished in 29 for the last 200, which is so silly.

Going out in 29 is silly, finishing in 29 I would say is pretty normal. You're always going to have a bit of a kick coming round the final bend unless you've made a complete mess of it.

Chivito550

KielyUnusual wrote: »

Going out in 29 is silly, finishing in 29 I would say is pretty normal. You're always going to have a bit of a kick coming round the final bend unless you've made a complete mess of it.

I suppose. Certainly didn't run it in the most optimal way though for the fastest time. His first 1300m was run at 34/35 second 200m pace, then he blasts a 29 at the end.

Pherekydes

Note that Bolt's 400m PB is 45.28 and he ran 45.35 at age 16 when he was still only (ahem) a 20.13 200m runner. He probably has the capacity to run 44 low or even sub 44 if he trained for it. If he can only run 2:07 off that potential then I don't see him doing much over a mile.

Chivito550

Pherekydes wrote: »

Note that Bolt's 400m PB is 45.28 and he ran 45.35 at age 16 when he was still only (ahem) a 20.13 200m runner. He probably has the capacity to run 44 low or even sub 44 if he trained for it. If he can only run 2:07 off that potential then I don't see him doing much over a mile.

Yeh true. I was just using 46 as where he likely is on recent form. His last few 400s have all been 46.

Mellor

Chivito550 wrote: »

[
He runs 400 in 46. Double that and you have 92. He ran 127 seconds for 800m. That's a 35 second drop off over one lap. Amazed how you think he could just stem this tide over TWO further laps.

Stem what tide?
127 doubled is 254. So he can drop off a further 46 seconds before the 5min mark.
It's not like he blasts the first 400m at 46 pace then tries to hang on for 3 more laps. Although I think some people are assuming that.

I think you said you run the 400m. How do you drop off to 800m and beyond?