August 2016 Boards forecast contest

MrSkinner, we need a location from you for the max rainfall (date not part of the scoring). Thanks.

M.T. Cranium ________ 15.6 __ 28.0 __ 2.0 __ 098 __ 095 ___ 30.0 Gurteen

Table of forecasts for August 2016


Date of max rain not scored but I listed the forecasts offered ... see my previous post for a discussion of what may need to happen now that a deluge already hit Sherkin Island on 1st.

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max rain, loc'n (date)

Jpmarn _____________16.3 _ 28.7 _ 6.2 _ 110 _ 120 ___ 28.2 Belmullet (6th)
Dacogawa ___ (-6) ___ 15.8 _ 27.1 _ 3.9 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 70.0 Sherkin (15th)
Tae laidir ___________ 15.8 _ 25.8 _ 3.4 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 33.0 Knock
M.T. Cranium ________15.6 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 098 _ 095 ___ 30.0 Gurteen (10th)
sryanbruen __________15.6 _ 26.0 _ 4.9 _ 110 _ 104 ___ 25.2 Valentia (6th)
Rikand ____ (-1) _____ 15.5 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 25.0 Mt Dillon (1st)
waterways __________ 15.4 _ 27.3 _ 2.3 _ 091 _ 116 ___ 28.0 Knock
Sunflower3 __________15.4 _ 26.5 _ 4.0 _ 101 _ 095 ___ 14.2 Valentia (18th)
JD________ (-3) _____ 15.3 _ 27.9 _ 2.9 _ 115 _ 093 ___ 29.9 Sherkin
DOCARCH ___________15.3 _ 27.7 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 16.2 Sherkin (10th)
Joe Public ___________ 15.3 _ 26.9 _ 1.9 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 22.9 Roches Point

Con Sensus __________15.3 _ 26.5 _ 3.8 _ 110 _ 098 ___ 25.2 Sherkin*

Bsal________________ 15.3 _ 25.0 _ 3.7 _ 125 _ 099 ___ 33.0 Knock (25th)
Kindred Spirit ________ 15.2 _ 26.2 _ 4.0 _ 085 _ 105 ___ 30.0 Valentia
pauldry______________15.2 _ 25.7 _ 3.0 _ 127 _ 101 ___ 48.2 Roches Pt (31st)
Dasa29 _____________ 15.2 _ 25.0 _ 3.9 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 22.5 Valentia (16th)

Norma L _____________15.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 40.0

Lumi ___ (-2) ________ 15.1 _ 26.7 _ 4.5 _ 113 _ 090 ___ 36.0 Sherkin (20th)
200motels ___________ 15.1 _ 26.7 _ 3.0 _ 117 _ 098 ___ 28.2 Roches Pt (7th)
mickger844posts ______ 15.1 _ 25.0 _ 5.9 _ 110 _ 104 ___ 20.2 Valentia (26th)
john mac ____________ 15.0 _ 26.0 _ 5.9 _ 110 _ 098 ___ 32.2 Sherkin (10th)
MrSkinner ____________14.9 _ 24.6 _ 3.8 _ 100 _ 111 ___ 32.0 Valentia
Rameire _____________ 14.7 _ 24.6 _ 3.4 _ 104 _ 098 ___ 25.2 Newport
___________________________________________________________

For the time being, 21 forecasts, Con Sensus is 11th ranked.

* Location of "consensus" was a toss-up between Valentia and Sherkin among those who had posted before 0900h Monday and no edit tags on any posts, so the count (including one in the know on that score) was Valentia 6, Sherkin 5, Roches Point 3, Knock 3 times, and one for each of Belmullet, Gurteen, Mount Dillon and Newport. Sherkin already the strong favourite apparently.

For Norma L the value is based on a wild estimate, it runs a bit higher than many of our uninfluenced-by-reality-of-first forecasts. Most likely location would probably be in west Munster but over a large number of Augusts you would expect a fair scatter as some values would be isolated storms, more would be well-organized events and even the odd tropical remnant like Charley.

The consensus view of the month seems to be a rather warm, slightly wet month with near normal sunshine. The consensus view of the max rainfall before a few late entrants began to catch on would seem to be skewed towards middle third of month. There is always the chance this will verify.

I should mention that Sherkin and Roches Point are not part of the PRC grid so their amounts on first will mean nothing in that category, Valentia, Cork and Shannon are 3/11 of the total, so I will comment on that when I see the numbers. Also Johnstown Castle and Oak Park are another two out of eleven. But three or four of the stations got almost no rain at all so that should balance out.

After the first week ...

IMT on 16.0 which is 0.5 above normal for the period.

PRC at 94% of normal.

SUN only 61.5% of normal.

MAX of 23.7 at Phoenix Park on 6th.

MIN that I could find was a mere 9.5 at Moorepark, unlikely to hold.

After two weeks ...

IMT on 15.34 with the week 14.7 (0.7 below the normal for the period).

PRC has fallen to 64% after a very dry week (33% on average, zero at JC).

SUN now at 66% with the second week continued rather dull at 70%, Cork did manage a normal amount.

MAX had remained on 23.7 until today, as of 15z highest hourly appears to be 23 so this could be revised by end of the day.

MIN during the two weeks was 8.2 on 9th but last night Dublin fell to 7 C on hourlies, will confirm the new MIN tomorrow.

John mac wrote: »

can anyone get access to rainfall data from Straid or is data collected from there ? on Wednesday 17th ?
we had biblical rain , but very localised ,
it would be interesting .

I checked the location on google earth to be sure, and so three met.ie stations nearby had about 30 mm each, Mace Head earlier had 33 mm with 12 mm in one hour.

There are no recording stations that we will hear from in real time but eventually the Monthly Bulletin may reveal a better answer as they collect climate station data (expect that in 7-8 months).

From what I recall of the radar there likely wasn't any huge maximum that was much higher than the 30 mm amounts mentioned, possibly 40 mm, it was not the sort of radar presentation that would suggest huge variations across Mayo and Sligo, but let's say 50 mm would be the absolute highest potential amount. From what I recall most of this fell in 3-4 hours from about 0300h to 1100h across the zone, with lighter amounts coming much later in the day.

(added later) Also two boards weather reports are available. One from your southeast reports 29 mm and one from your northwest (Renvyle) reports 38 mm. The maximum hourly rate reported there was
10 mm around 0400h.
Meanwhile, total rainfalls 18th-19th across the south appear to be in the 20-25 mm range so not as impressive as the 17th. Today may reveal a new contender somewhere.