August 2016 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.1 C.

2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

6. For a BONUS question, predict the heaviest calendar day rainfall (as reported in daily data and "yesterday's weather" on met.ie site) and the location. This should be in mm to one decimal place.


Enter by the deadline of 0300h on Monday 1st of August, or take the slight penalties that are assigned on first, increasing on second.

Good luck !!

sryanbruen

sryanbruen __________ 15.6 _ 26.0_ 4.9 _ 110_ 104_ 25.2mm Valentia Observatory on the 6th

pauldry

pauldry__________ 15.2 _ 25.7_ 3.0 _ 127_ 101_ 48.2mm Roches Point 31st August

Good on ya sryan now i have a template....on phone ya c

Bsal

Bsal__________ 15.3 _ 25.0_ 3.7 _ 125_ 99_ 33.0mm Knock Airport 25th August

200motels

200motels

---

_ 15.1 _ 26.7_ 3.0 _ 117_ 98_ 28.2mm Roches Point 7th August

mickger844posts

mickger844posts __________ 15.1_ 25.0_ 5.9 _ 110_ 104_ 20.2mm Valentia Observatory on the 26th

DOCARCH

DOCARCH __________ 15.3_ 27.7_ 4.2 _ 110_ 90_ 16.2mm Sherkin 10th

dasa29

Dasa29 __________ 15.2 _ 25.0_ 3.9 _ 100_ 100_ 22.5mm Valentia Observatory on the 16th

mrskinner

Skinner_____14.9_____24.6____3.8____100____111_____32mm, Valentia.

sryanbruen

mrskinner wrote: »

Skinner_____12.3_____28.4_____4.4_____100____100_____50mm, 27th

12.3? Are you high mate?

mrskinner

I am not your mate.

sryanbruen

mrskinner wrote: »

I am not your mate.

That does not answer my question whatsoever and it's a figure of speech.

Jpmarn

Jpmarn __________ 16.3_ 28.7_ 6.2 _ 110_ 120_ 28.2mm Belmullet 6th

sunflower3

Sunflower3 __________ 15.4_ 26.5_ 4.0 _ 101_ 95_ 14.2mm Valentia 18th

M.T. Cranium

MrSkinner, we need a location from you for the max rainfall (date not part of the scoring). Thanks.

M.T. Cranium ________ 15.6 __ 28.0 __ 2.0 __ 098 __ 095 ___ 30.0 Gurteen

rameire

Rameire ________ 14.7 __ 24.6 __ 3.4 __ 104 __ 098 ___ 25.2 Newport

Tae laidir

Tae laidir __________ 15.8 _ 25.8 _ 3.4 _ 105 _ 105 _ 33.0 Knock

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit __________ 15.2 ___ 26.2 ___ 4.0 ___ 85 ___ 105 ___ 30mm at Valentia.

Joe Public

Joe Public ________ 15.3 __ 26.9 __ 1.9 __ 120 __ 090 ___ 22.9 Roches Point

waterways

waterways __________ 15.4 ___ 27.3___ 2.3___ 91 ___ 116___ 28mm Knock

John mac

john mac __________ 15.0 _ 26.0_ 5.9 _ 110_ 98_ 32.2mm Sherkin 10th

Rikand

Rikand ______ 15.5 _____ 27.0 _____ 3.5 ______ 110 ______ 100 ______ 25mm Mount Dillon 1st August

Lumi

Lumi __________ 15.1_ 26.7_ 4.5 _ 113_ 90_ 36.0mm Sherkin Island 20th

pauldry

Sherkin Island setting an early bar for rainfall..

jd

JD________ 15.3 __ 27.9 __ 2.9 __ 115 __ 093___29.9 Sherkin

Rikand

Bugger, had picked cork last night and changed my mind last second when i saw the values being predicted on yr.no

pauldry

54mm in sherkin midnight to 6PM Unbeatable total on 1st August quite possible.

waterways

sherkin should get the points and we zero.

pauldry

Its now over 60mm

I thought 48.2mm was a joke prediction and yet its bust

dacogawa

Please excuse the lateness, couldn't be helped

Dacogawa __________ 15.8 _ 27.1_ 3.9 _ 120_ 90_ 70mm sherkin 15th

Was going to say 66.2mm sherkin on the 1st, but I'll skip that in the interests of fairness and go for something crazy instead

pauldry

dacogawa wrote: »

Please excuse the lateness, couldn't be helped

Dacogawa __________ 15.8 _ 27.1_ 3.9 _ 120_ 90_ 70mm sherkin 15th

Was going to say 66.2mm sherkin on the 1st, but I'll skip that in the interests of fairness and go for something crazy instead

Hmmmm controversial.

Surely therel be 120mm at some place before 31st n it wont matter.

Actually Sherkin has already matched or nearly matched its rainfall for augusts of previous few years.

M.T. Cranium

Hey that's awkward, well I guess we're stuck with that reality and the fault is mine for not picking up on this during the weekend although I was giving the subject a lot less thought than usual due to sunstroke (a condition that may be unfamiliar to my readers) ...

So if we assume that very few entries took this developing rainstorm into account, maybe a second chance sort of scoring system where you get the higher of two scores although a good forecast for yesterday would count more than any forecast of future peaks? I will have to go over the entries and see how many appeared to be influenced even slightly by the nowcast situation. If it's fewer than a quarter then I think I will give max points to those perceptive individuals and play the rest off half points? Or just score it as if there was no issue, that's going to go mostly to rank ordering of your forecasts (the plan was to go 8 points amount and 2 points location).

If there's a second rainfall over 40 mm in west Munster this month, I think the problem will collapse into being a choice between two equal outcomes so it won't matter. Input welcome.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for August 2016


Date of max rain not scored but I listed the forecasts offered ... see my previous post for a discussion of what may need to happen now that a deluge already hit Sherkin Island on 1st.

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max rain, loc'n (date)

Jpmarn _____________16.3 _ 28.7 _ 6.2 _ 110 _ 120 ___ 28.2 Belmullet (6th)
Dacogawa ___ (-6) ___ 15.8 _ 27.1 _ 3.9 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 70.0 Sherkin (15th)
Tae laidir ___________ 15.8 _ 25.8 _ 3.4 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 33.0 Knock
M.T. Cranium ________15.6 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 098 _ 095 ___ 30.0 Gurteen (10th)
sryanbruen __________15.6 _ 26.0 _ 4.9 _ 110 _ 104 ___ 25.2 Valentia (6th)
Rikand ____ (-1) _____ 15.5 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 25.0 Mt Dillon (1st)
waterways __________ 15.4 _ 27.3 _ 2.3 _ 091 _ 116 ___ 28.0 Knock
Sunflower3 __________15.4 _ 26.5 _ 4.0 _ 101 _ 095 ___ 14.2 Valentia (18th)
JD________ (-3) _____ 15.3 _ 27.9 _ 2.9 _ 115 _ 093 ___ 29.9 Sherkin
DOCARCH ___________15.3 _ 27.7 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 16.2 Sherkin (10th)
Joe Public ___________ 15.3 _ 26.9 _ 1.9 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 22.9 Roches Point

Con Sensus __________15.3 _ 26.5 _ 3.8 _ 110 _ 098 ___ 25.2 Sherkin*

Bsal________________ 15.3 _ 25.0 _ 3.7 _ 125 _ 099 ___ 33.0 Knock (25th)
Kindred Spirit ________ 15.2 _ 26.2 _ 4.0 _ 085 _ 105 ___ 30.0 Valentia
pauldry______________15.2 _ 25.7 _ 3.0 _ 127 _ 101 ___ 48.2 Roches Pt (31st)
Dasa29 _____________ 15.2 _ 25.0 _ 3.9 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 22.5 Valentia (16th)

Norma L _____________15.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 40.0

Lumi ___ (-2) ________ 15.1 _ 26.7 _ 4.5 _ 113 _ 090 ___ 36.0 Sherkin (20th)
200motels ___________ 15.1 _ 26.7 _ 3.0 _ 117 _ 098 ___ 28.2 Roches Pt (7th)
mickger844posts ______ 15.1 _ 25.0 _ 5.9 _ 110 _ 104 ___ 20.2 Valentia (26th)
john mac ____________ 15.0 _ 26.0 _ 5.9 _ 110 _ 098 ___ 32.2 Sherkin (10th)
MrSkinner ____________14.9 _ 24.6 _ 3.8 _ 100 _ 111 ___ 32.0 Valentia
Rameire _____________ 14.7 _ 24.6 _ 3.4 _ 104 _ 098 ___ 25.2 Newport
___________________________________________________________

For the time being, 21 forecasts, Con Sensus is 11th ranked.

* Location of "consensus" was a toss-up between Valentia and Sherkin among those who had posted before 0900h Monday and no edit tags on any posts, so the count (including one in the know on that score) was Valentia 6, Sherkin 5, Roches Point 3, Knock 3 times, and one for each of Belmullet, Gurteen, Mount Dillon and Newport. Sherkin already the strong favourite apparently.

For Norma L the value is based on a wild estimate, it runs a bit higher than many of our uninfluenced-by-reality-of-first forecasts. Most likely location would probably be in west Munster but over a large number of Augusts you would expect a fair scatter as some values would be isolated storms, more would be well-organized events and even the odd tropical remnant like Charley.

The consensus view of the month seems to be a rather warm, slightly wet month with near normal sunshine. The consensus view of the max rainfall before a few late entrants began to catch on would seem to be skewed towards middle third of month. There is always the chance this will verify.

I should mention that Sherkin and Roches Point are not part of the PRC grid so their amounts on first will mean nothing in that category, Valentia, Cork and Shannon are 3/11 of the total, so I will comment on that when I see the numbers. Also Johnstown Castle and Oak Park are another two out of eleven. But three or four of the stations got almost no rain at all so that should balance out.

mrskinner

"Deadline is 0300h Sunday 1st May, penalties will be 1% for part or all of three hour intervals to 1500h Monday 2nd then 1% per two hours."

If these penalties are applied then the late entries this month will incur penalties of -1, -2, -3, -6.

Rikand

I had 30 mm and cork posted :pac:

then edited my post 6 minutes later and said

25 mm and Mount Dillon because for the first time in my life I actually researched

M.T. Cranium

mrskinner wrote: »

"Deadline is 0300h Sunday 1st May, penalties will be 1% for part or all of three hour intervals to 1500h Monday 2nd then 1% per two hours."

If these penalties are applied then the late entries this month will incur penalties of -1, -2, -3, -6.

I suspect you are right, my forum time appears to be GMT rather than current time which shows entries an hour "earlier" than they actually were. I will go back into the table of entries and change the late penalties (this moves Rikand from zero to -1).

I think Dacogawa will recover his losses but that's why we have late penalties and this earlier deadline than before.

The "bonus contest" now will be mostly a matter of interest as to the validity of predictions for the period 2nd-31st but you can pretty much figure out the scoring on amounts already, as no higher outcomes will change the way the bonus gets scored anyway (rank ordered groups of three from 8 down to 3 then groups of 2 and 1 for that many points is how I'll do it.) The location, if this holds, will be two points for Sherkin and one for Valentia or Roches Point of the guesses received, Cork would have scored also. No super-bonus because of the nowcast aspect. However, who knows, some lucky location could score a higher rainfall later in the month and change that part of the contest. Hope it's Gurteen or Grr-teen as it will be known.

The rainfall at contest sites on the first was only 88 mm which sounds like a lot but with normal monthly rainfalls of 50 to 70 mm, the average daily total at eleven locations is 20-25 mm, so from that you can see we have started off in the 400% range but that won't be the case after the first week, my current estimate is about 200 to 250 per cent by then. Ironically this rain would have added to July totals to make almost exactly a normal rainfall for 1st July to 1st of August.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT on 16.0 which is 0.5 above normal for the period.

PRC at 94% of normal.

SUN only 61.5% of normal.

MAX of 23.7 at Phoenix Park on 6th.

MIN that I could find was a mere 9.5 at Moorepark, unlikely to hold.

pauldry

Min is already 9c tonight

Headn to bed

Itl be 6 or 7c by morning

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 15.34 with the week 14.7 (0.7 below the normal for the period).

PRC has fallen to 64% after a very dry week (33% on average, zero at JC).

SUN now at 66% with the second week continued rather dull at 70%, Cork did manage a normal amount.

MAX had remained on 23.7 until today, as of 15z highest hourly appears to be 23 so this could be revised by end of the day.

MIN during the two weeks was 8.2 on 9th but last night Dublin fell to 7 C on hourlies, will confirm the new MIN tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium

MIN was 6.4 C at Dublin on 15th. MAX was not quite broken on 15th (23.6) but will be today as three stations at 25 C at 1500h.

pauldry

25.2c in Sunny Sligo

Its still gettn warmer

Wonder will the 26c mark be hit

Nope....theyv all gone down at 6pm

So 25.something it is

pauldry

25c in Shannon n Claremorris

Care to beat that Mt Dillon or Newport

Rikand

25.5C in Athenry
25.2C in Mount Dillon

M.T. Cranium

Worth noting that Mace Head recorded 33.1 mm rain on 17th, second highest daily event so far, won't change the scoring for amounts but if it holds as second, will give one point out of two for anyone in that area (Knock, Newport, Belmullet) for a good try. Re the "controversy" of a late entry nailing the bonus, the late penalty more or less cancels out the high score expected there. I expect some more high totals near the south coast tomorrow if there isn't too much sharing with today's startup amounts, will be interesting to see what totals today and tomorrow muster in that regard.

John mac

can anyone get access to rainfall data from Straid or is data collected from there ? on Wednesday 17th ?
we had biblical rain , but very localised ,
it would be interesting .

pauldry

Is it Straid in Mayo?

There was 12.6mm of rain in one hour in Newport.

Thats fairly biblical

M.T. Cranium

John mac wrote: »

can anyone get access to rainfall data from Straid or is data collected from there ? on Wednesday 17th ?
we had biblical rain , but very localised ,
it would be interesting .

I checked the location on google earth to be sure, and so three met.ie stations nearby had about 30 mm each, Mace Head earlier had 33 mm with 12 mm in one hour.

There are no recording stations that we will hear from in real time but eventually the Monthly Bulletin may reveal a better answer as they collect climate station data (expect that in 7-8 months).

From what I recall of the radar there likely wasn't any huge maximum that was much higher than the 30 mm amounts mentioned, possibly 40 mm, it was not the sort of radar presentation that would suggest huge variations across Mayo and Sligo, but let's say 50 mm would be the absolute highest potential amount. From what I recall most of this fell in 3-4 hours from about 0300h to 1100h across the zone, with lighter amounts coming much later in the day.

(added later) Also two boards weather reports are available. One from your southeast reports 29 mm and one from your northwest (Renvyle) reports 38 mm. The maximum hourly rate reported there was
10 mm around 0400h.
Meanwhile, total rainfalls 18th-19th across the south appear to be in the 20-25 mm range so not as impressive as the 17th. Today may reveal a new contender somewhere.

John mac

Thanks
should have put in coordinates (53.9225691,-9.1297566 )
I know there is some station there as MT says its prob a climatic one .
It reported the -18 we got in 2010 ,
must be over 40mm for 5 hours or so .

the radar didnt look that omnious (i was in Dublin,so getting reports from home ) it must have stopped over for a long period, .

sryanbruen

Just thought it'd be worth the mention here that Mullingar recorded 46.8mm yesterday (20th).

pauldry

Well done Mullingar

What a washout of an August

Re Straid Its hard accurately record rainfall in the West since no radar in w and nw means met eireann regularly need to change their forecasts when they realise its drizzling up here

sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

Well done Mullingar

What a washout of an August

Re Straid Its hard accurately record rainfall in the West since no radar in w and nw means met eireann regularly need to change their forecasts when they realise its drizzling up here

Ay I recorded 86.4mm on the 2nd in 2014, that was a washout of an August.