Aer Lingus Fleet/Routes Discussion

Marcusm · 15-07-2016 05:35PM

Fundamentally, I see a common IAG A320neo order capabale of being cascaded through the mainlibe fleets (BA/_IB/EI) and an a300/a350 fleet capable of interaction between EI and IB. BA longhaul will remain a separate fleet as that will deliver greatest value.

Fattes · 15-07-2016 05:38PM

duskyjoe wrote: »

sorry Fattes, your closer and wiser to the action than me.:rolleyes:

When did I say I was close to anything? or wiser than anyone?? You referenced FR as a Brute airline, it wasn't created as one, it was developed to one. EI has far more potential than is currently being harnessed from it.

Also from a pure business development & security EI needs to have options available outside of N.America. Or they are exposed to a similar fluctuations post 2008 crash. Their load factors on Long Haul, and the potential to open new routes plus their projected growth, would all justify the approx cost difference and give them an option to vary their market and revenue streams.

All to often EI produce some of the top airline talent, sadly that talent is normally most productively employed outside of the corporation to the benefit of competitors or other airlines.

TheFitz13 · 16-07-2016 10:11PM

Does anybody know when the first new A330 is due its first flight from TLS?

17-07-2016 11:41AM

TheFitz13 wrote: »

Does anybody know when the first new A330 is due its first flight from TLS?

Soon enough, 1742 is in full colours and is F-WWYM if you want to set an alert, both are in and out of hangars since the end of June.

billie1b · 17-07-2016 11:49AM

TheFitz13 wrote: »

Does anybody know when the first new A330 is due its first flight from TLS?

Scheduled for the last week of August

Tenger · 17-07-2016 12:46PM

TheFitz13 wrote: »

Does anybody know when the first new A330 is due its first flight from TLS?

billie1b wrote: »

Scheduled for the last week of August

DUB-EWR starts on Sept 1st. Thats when EI "need" it. So as above expect it last week of August.
2nd to follow pretty soon after. Its is MSN 1744.

Impressive capacity growth, 8 A330 in Q3 2016, up to 12 by Q2 2017. (Unless we see a retirement perhaps....anyone in the know?)

Still not as impressive as FR and their 'shuttle' deliveries of B738s in early 2016.

billie1b · 17-07-2016 01:50PM

The next 2 after that will be April/May 2017

Tenger · 17-07-2016 07:12PM

From what I heard there's one particular 330 (i forget the reg) that there was talk of it being scrapped due to issues, but nothing confirmed.

EI-LAX & -DAA are the oldest in the fleet but if they are owned then EI may want to get the most out of them.
Conversely EI-EWR which is a recent addition (well for its 2nd time) to the fleet is actually owned by a leasing company so if EI planned ahead it may be planned to leave in early/mid 2017.

Not sure how to find out the actual ownership of the aircraft. I use airfleets.org, which shows current operator rather than actual owner.

L1011 · 17-07-2016 07:22PM

No - various leasing firms own a substantial amount of them

Tenger · 17-07-2016 07:35PM

I thought all the 320 (family) and 330 were owned by aer lingus, are they not?

As above... nope.
EI own approx 40% of their aircraft, rest are leased. Details taken from memory of Full year results from a coupme of years back.
Obviously this info is moot now that EI are currently owned by IAG.

Aircraft are very expensive capital investments which depreciate very rapidly over time. Far better from an accountancy point of view is to have them as leased pieces of equipment which are paid off on a monthly basis. This spreads the cost of the finance over many years and allows the airlines the ability to reduce the fleet size if a downturn occurs (while incurring lease ending penalties)

Jamie2k9 · 17-07-2016 07:39PM

As of 31 August 2015, according to EI:

Total Commercial Fleet Number - 48
Owned or finance leased - 26
Operating leased - 22

Can be a lot cheaper to lease frames provided various conditions are on your side. EI made major savings in recent years and can be seen in annual reports.

Cravens · 17-07-2016 08:05PM

I read about a year back that EI-DAA was more on the problematic side than any other A330, and probably past its best use. However, I don't see EI giving up any A330's in the medium term. It seems like they are in need of all the long-haul lift they can get.

Stealthirl · 17-07-2016 08:58PM

Talking of leasing i believe Avolon have a firm order for 15 A330-900neo's could that be something EI/IAG could be looking at in the future ?

Tenger · 17-07-2016 09:08PM

Stealthirl wrote: »

Talking of leasing i believe Avolon have a firm order for 15 A330-900neo's could that be something EI/IAG could be looking at in the future ?

Am sure IAG are looking all over at options. The nature of aviation leasing is that home advantage isn't necessarily a thing, Avolon is based in Ireland but their aircraft may never get within 10 hours flight of here. Meanwhile EI (and IAG) may get better deals elsewhere.

Jamie2k9 · 17-07-2016 09:24PM

Stealthirl wrote: »

Talking of leasing i believe Avolon have a firm order for 15 A330-900neo's could that be something EI/IAG could be looking at in the future ?

IAG are in the position where buying them can make more financial sense as they have significant bargaining power with Airbus/Boeing where smaller carriers must really take it or leave it.

Personally I would expect a NEO order from IAG as plenty of current A330's will need replacement in the next 10 years but guess there is no real rush for a few years to make that decision. That's provided the A350's are fully off the table with EI, otherwise they might just stick with a few new A333's and A350's as they have over 30 options on top of all the orders.

Tenger · 17-07-2016 10:21PM

Its a little off topic but this list from planespotters.net shows operator and leasor in the notes, hard to get a complete list for a single carrier perhaps but hardy to remember if you want to enquire about a specific MSN:
https://www.planespotters.net/production-list/Airbus/A330
https://www.planespotters.net/production-list/Airbus/A350

AndyBoBandy · 18-07-2016 06:46AM

Tenger wrote: »

Avolon is based in Ireland

I believe up to 30% of the worlds entire commercial fleet are owned by Irish based companies (quite possibly higher), with the old Guinness Peat being quite a large player in the modern era, now called GE Aviation

In terms of aviation leasing, no one beats the Irish.

18-07-2016 09:05AM

Just as an aside from what I've seen recorded 1st flights appear to be done 4-6 weeks before delivery to customer not the week before.

basill · 18-07-2016 01:57PM

I suspect going forward that there will be a move towards fleet commonality between the various group airlines and also a cross over in work. By this I mean closer working links between the carriers along the lines of cityflyer giving AL a digout during the summer on its French bucket and spade routes. I see no reason why a Nigel flown 380 couldn't be parked up in Dublin for the busiest parts of the summer to service whichever routes are required. Similarly we could see any number of rotations into the east coast with 330s, 321NEOs and an ever changing combination depending on the season and demand for seats.

Conversely in the winter there is no reason why the long haul fleet couldn't be redeployed across the IAG network to improve utilisation similar to the Carribean work a few years ago.

Fattes · 18-07-2016 02:18PM

basill wrote: »

I suspect going forward that there will be a move towards fleet commonality between the various group airlines and also a cross over in work. By this I mean closer working links between the carriers along the lines of cityflyer giving AL a digout during the summer on its French bucket and spade routes. I see no reason why a Nigel flown 380 couldn't be parked up in Dublin for the busiest parts of the summer to service whichever routes are required. Similarly we could see any number of rotations into the east coast with 330s, 321NEOs and an ever changing combination depending on the season and demand for seats.

Turn around time, only option is to park it on the West Apron and use buses to disembark and embark. Not the kind of turn around time operators want with aircraft.

In terms of fleet commonality, IAG have all ready said that all A350 will have the same interior option, but branding and the brand management will limit how many Iberia jest would operate EI routes etc.

basill · 18-07-2016 03:38PM

469 seats versus 322. Seat revenue per km through the roof with larger premium cabins. Tis an accountants dream. Never mind the pax inconvenience of a wee bus ride that's a mere side show.

goingnowhere · 18-07-2016 03:42PM

EI have a better biz seat than BA, be a downgrade...

Fattes · 18-07-2016 04:41PM

basill wrote: »

469 seats versus 322. Seat revenue per km through the roof with larger premium cabins. Tis an accountants dream. Never mind the pax inconvenience of a wee bus ride that's a mere side show.

That's why Emirates are pressuring Airbus to make the A380 more efficient! More expensive per seat than say a350,a330 and EI don't operate 1st class.

Bus ride is not inconvenient it's the disembark, loading time that leads to longer turnaround that makes it a less than ideal airframe from Dublin

basill · 18-07-2016 05:01PM

If it can make profit then they will do it. Turnaround time is sufficient even with remote parking. 104 lands at 0530ish then off again at 1050. Even a B team should be able to deal with that. What's more of a headache will be getting it parked at JFK as an example. Anyway it's all pie in the sky if the loads don't hold up to make it look attractive and if a spare airframe isn't free when required. Would be interesting though as a 330 could be freed up on certain days for more bucket and spade work.

Not sure we will see it next season but in future years I can foresee a lot more intra group cooperation. We are already seeing it to some extent with pax being shifted across from BA on the Atlantic.

Irish Steve · 18-07-2016 05:38PM

basill wrote: »

Not sure we will see it next season but in future years I can foresee a lot more intra group cooperation. We are already seeing it to some extent with pax being shifted across from BA on the Atlantic.

What could prove to be a very significant game changer will be the manner in which the UK and the EU deal with Brexit, we have no way to know how international interlining and hub operations at Heathrow will be affected.

I can imagine a scenario where a significant number of IAG EU flights could be redirected to Dublin for hub onward to the US and Canada, and possibly even the Caribbean, depending on the exact changes that happen.

The Irish "special relationship" with the UK in relation to Schengen and the Common Travel area could mean that Ireland stands to benefit from being in but not in, if that makes sense.

Fattes wrote: »

Bus ride is not inconvenient it's the disembark, loading time that leads to longer turnaround that makes it a less than ideal airframe from Dublin

Which is why the DAA already have plans in place to upgrade one of the T2 piers to accommodate the 380 family. My understanding of the 380 is that the advantage it has over the wide body twins is that it can carry more passengers and a lot of freight, although that may not be such an advantage for operations out of Ireland, unless some of the European states start using Dublin as a transit point for freight.

The other factor that is significant in 380 operations is where the airports being operated to or from are capacity (slot) limited, a larger number of passengers on one aircraft is a lot more helpful that 2 aircraft on the same route if the runway slots and gates to accommodate the second aircraft are not available, or very expensive, which for some locations is a very significant factor.

Jamie2k9 · 18-07-2016 05:48PM

What could prove to be a very significant game changer will be the manner in which the UK and the EU deal with Brexit, we have no way to know how international interlining and hub operations at Heathrow will be affected.

I can imagine a scenario where a significant number of IAG EU flights could be redirected to Dublin for hub onward to the US and Canada, and possibly even the Caribbean, depending on the exact changes that happen.

The Irish "special relationship" with the UK in relation to Schengen and the Common Travel area could mean that Ireland stands to benefit from being in but not in, if that makes sense.

French and German elections especially France are ones to watch next year as France will be next if the Right win and then it's bye bye EU.

You can be sure the UK will get 90% of what they want, Europe cannot afford to play hardball with them and Germany/France have the most to lose and both are the most powerful in Europe.

Van.Bosch · 18-07-2016 06:09PM

If an A380 could make money in summer from Dublin, I'm pretty sure it would make as much ex LHR for BA, so I'm not sure I see why BA would have one spare.

duskyjoe · 18-07-2016 07:45PM

A380 in Dublin? What a load of old rollox.

The airport at summer capacity is finding it hard enough to deal alone with heavy twins. Until they build 28R/10L and put a new terminal accompanying same we are imo whistling into the wind with notions of a A380. Putting an A380 on a hard stand now abeam the fire station negates the ability to use US pre clearance facilities. Pipe dream folks.

Marcusm · 18-07-2016 08:19PM

duskyjoe wrote: »

A380 in Dublin? What a load of old rollox. The airport at summer capacity is finding it hard enough to deal alone with heavy twins. Until they build 28R/10L and put a new terminal accompanying same we are imo whistling into the wind with notions of a A380. Putting an A380 on a hard stand now abeam the fire station negates the ability to use US pre clearance facilities. Pipe dream folks.

Ah Jaysus, shove it down between the 100s and 200s. On a day like this, as PAX walk down the stairs they'd probably think they were at ANU or BGI!

Irish Steve · 18-07-2016 08:51PM

A 380 will fit the end stand on the northern side of T2 now, but the clearances are not in place to allow it to be done as "normal" operations, to get it in there at present would require additional monitoring and support from DAA personnel, and other "one off" activities to make it happen, and the airbridge has to be ugraded to deal with the upper deck. There are also "issues" with the margins of the high speed turnoffs on the existing runway, which need to be made larger to ensure that a 380 doesn't run off the edges, but the theoretical work to operate a 380 has already been reviewed.

28R/10L is not needed to get a 380 in to Dublin, it can get in and out now if necessary. but not as a routine operation at present.

Yes, the design and layout of the stands for T2 leaves a lot to be desired, as does much of the way that Dublin has evolved over the last number of years, given the space that Aer Rianta/DAA had available for a very long time, their lack of vision in some areas has been incredible, but some of that is directly attributable to Aer Rianta having been seen as a "Nice" appointment/reward for people who had done something to help the political establishment, and who knew nothing or less about aviation, let alone running a major international airport. Things have improved a little with the changes to take political interference out of the operation, but it will take a very long time to undo the damage that years of poor decision making have inflicted on the place.

It would have made a lot more sense to have had a terminal and stands system on the south side of 28, rather than Dublin Bus garages and car parking, and there were plans at one time for a similar concept north of 28 at the western end of the runway, but that seems to have gone very quiet now.

There is a place for 380's going forward, the pressure on gates/stands will not be resolved any time soon, especially on the long haul side of things, and there is no easy way to speed up the turn on things like 330's and 777's, the fuel loading time is often a controlling factor, and for long haul, the cleaning and catering work is very different to that required for a short hop low cost flight. Putting a second flight on to a route is not always the simple solution, due to timings, and if the route is that successful, it's not long before both flights are full.

It will be very much down to how attractive Dublin becomes as a real hub, while there has been some traffic in that way for years, I am expecting IAG to be very proactive in using the location and facilities that Dublin offers to enhance the Atlantic operations, and as long as DAA don't drag their heels for too long, that enhancement should work.

In a different part of the world, Istanbul airport is jammed to capacity, the second airport there is also getting busy, and they are building a new airport to the north West of Istanbul to allow for future expansion above the over 60 million passengers they are handling now. Most of the traffic is hub traffic, as there are only 7 million Turkish citizens with passports, domestic flights accounted for 19 million movements out of the 60, the rest were international travellers.

Given it's geographic location, there is no reason at all for Ireland to miss out on similar hub opportunities if the services are correctly structured, and while we might not want to face the factor of oil availability, there will come a time when air travel will not be as easy as it is now, due to the problems of being able to get enough fuel to operate all of the routes, I wouldn't want to be the one that has to decide if crops for food for people or crops to produce bio diesel are the priority, and there will come a time when that will be the decision that has to be made, unless science can come up with a new form of energy that's capable of providing the power to keep aircraft operating, and there's no immediate evidence that is going to happen any time soon.

Aer Lingus Fleet/Routes Discussion

Comments