Aer Lingus Fleet/Routes Discussion

Blut2 · 12-07-2016 11:26PM

Van.Bosch wrote: »

True enough, but if looking at a huge hub they would need more than UK pax. I think their immediate focus, 2-3 years will be on the US, after that I could see South Africa. China could be an outlier in that it could possibly sustain a direct link itself.

If EI were forced to expand long-haul outside of the North American market I'd wager Sao Paolo or Rio, Beijing or Hong Kong and Cape Town or Joberg, would be the 3 most likely options. Essentially where could they expand to while best avoiding competing with EK/TK/EY/QR.

North America just makes a lot more sense currently.

Marcusm · 12-07-2016 11:35PM

Blut2 wrote: »

If EI were forced to expand long-haul outside of the North American market I'd wager Sao Paolo or Rio, Beijing or Hong Kong and Cape Town or Joberg, would be the 3 most likely options. Essentially where could they expand to while best avoiding competing with EK/TK/EY/QR.

North America just makes a lot more sense currently.

There is no prospect of EI expanding to GRU/GIG São Paulo or Rio in the next 10 years. Even a huge commercial centre like London or Paris can barely support 2 flights a day and Madrid one. The downturn in the Brazilian economy together with the lack of an oil, steel or finance nexus in Ireland means it's simply not commercial. CPT or JNB might be feasible if DUB did not have multiple Gulf flights which would kill profitability on those routes. Long thin routes which cannot be served by a single airframe (ie cannot turn around and return before the following day's flight) makes planning very complex.

Walk before run.

Fattes · 13-07-2016 11:14AM

Cheers all very informative and interesting

Tangey99 · 13-07-2016 12:26PM

Miami makes perfect sense for an airline that is committed to joining oneworld, Miami is a AA hub, and as has been mentioned gives loads of new connection options from Dub.

Tenger · 13-07-2016 01:32PM

The reality is the EI have to play it safe. They cant afford to allow a route to "mature" over 2-3 years. With a current longhaul fleet of less than 12 aircraft they need each one to be turning a profit. Some large airlines can absorb losses on new routes to allow them to develop.
So while Newark and Hartford may not be exciting there are winners for EI in terms of providing bums on seats and revenue (Hartford being a subsidised route)

So China/India/Sth Africa direct are always going to be risks for a small airline. Especially when you have so many options ex DUB, (Emirates, Ethiad or go via LHR, AMS, FRA, CDG) which means EI can only compete on price. This then negates the reason (yield/profit) of starting the route in the first place.

So as stated above, going to Miami may be "oh look more boring US routes by EI" but when it is an attractive destination in its own right with connection traffic to Sth America and possibly a codeshare/alliance membership in place then its a no brainer.

Running an airline (as with any commercial company) is a numbers game. Emotion and ego cant be taken into account.
EG. Personally I think that ego had a lot to do with the longrunning Ryanair bids for EI. They tied up a lot of capital in their EI shareholding. While it was a tactical move to hamstring EI I dont think it was worth the distraction for FR.

LXFlyer · 14-07-2016 11:50AM

Aer Lingus to add 2 further A330-300s to the fleet according to Airbus.

http://goo.gl/PGbOrd

Mitch Buchannon · 14-07-2016 11:52AM

AER LINGUS LONGHAUL AIRCRAFT ORDER

International Airlines Group (IAG) is converting two Airbus 330-300 longhaul aircraft options into firm orders for Aer Lingus.

These aircraft will be delivered in 2017 and will facilitate expansion on Aer Lingus' transatlantic network.

The modern, fuel efficient aircraft will bring both cost efficiencies and environmental benefits to the airline. These A330 options were first announced in September 2014.

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/IAG/12892689.html

Bussywussy · 14-07-2016 01:08PM

''IAG converting two A330-300 into firm orders for Aer Lingus.....''

everyone knew these were coming but recent rumours suggested it may be only 1,there was talks of retiring one A330-200.

expansion announcement due shortly too by all accounts....

Tenger · 14-07-2016 01:43PM

Bussywussy wrote: »

..............
expansion announcement due shortly too by all accounts....

Irish Indo article on the 4 Star award had a quote from EI CEO about new route news "in coming weeks" so maybe on arrival of first new A330 in 5-6 weeks or commencement of DUB-EWR on Sept 1st?

Strumms · 14-07-2016 02:04PM

Could it be a case that this order signals the end of the possibility of the A350 in EI colours ? At least in the short to medium term ?

Fattes · 14-07-2016 02:34PM

Strumms wrote: »

Could it be a case that this order signals the end of the possibility of the A350 in EI colours ? At least in the short to medium term ?

It would probably be in EI interest to operate 2 A350 on the Boston NY routes or to San Fran. But looking more and more like they will go elsewhere in the IAG group.

Mahony0509 · 14-07-2016 02:35PM

Strumms wrote: »

Could it be a case that this order signals the end of the possibility of the A350 in EI colours ? At least in the short to medium term ?

Hope not. God that plane would look beautiful in EI livery...

Van.Bosch · 14-07-2016 02:48PM

Strumms wrote: »

Could it be a case that this order signals the end of the possibility of the A350 in EI colours ? At least in the short to medium term ?

I don't think this order will tell us anything, EI has slots for 2018 deliveries so these are for 2017, so aren't instead of A350's. We will know more in November at the IAG capital markets day I'd say.

Tenger · 14-07-2016 03:27PM

Strumms wrote: »

Could it be a case that this order signals the end of the possibility of the A350 in EI colours ? At least in the short to medium term ?

As above. Dont think so. The 2015-2020 expansion of 1 aircraft per year was planned by EI. IAG promised to double that. This order is merely confirming rumours.
I expect clarity on the status of the 'EI' A350 situation will be given in November. After all they are IAG A350s now.

Strumms · 14-07-2016 07:32PM

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I don't think this order will tell us anything, EI has slots for 2018 deliveries so these are for 2017, so aren't instead of A350's. We will know more in November at the IAG capital markets day I'd say.

Interesting. Good times really when the EI long haul fleet is expanded to 12 airframes and then possibly more again by the end of the decade with the additions of the A350.

In November will we get an idea of the thinking regarding the short - medium haul fleet replacement intentions ?

roundymac · 14-07-2016 08:11PM

Will there be room in Dublin T2 for all those extra L/H aircraft? Are they going to have to go down the road of remote parking and bus the passengers.

flanzer · 14-07-2016 08:27PM

roundymac wrote: »

Will there be room in Dublin T2 for all those extra L/H aircraft? Are they going to have to go down the road of remote parking and bus the passengers.

You'll find Pier 4 will soon become fully CBP with the use of the swing gates until 4/5 pm

Strumms · 14-07-2016 08:30PM

roundymac wrote: »

Will there be room in Dublin T2 for all those extra L/H aircraft? Are they going to have to go down the road of remote parking and bus the passengers.

I'd say they will have to look at that alright. I know the focus has been on the runway but with all the extra capacity that can facilitate it's no good if you can't provide the ramp support for the carriers. It would have made a lot of sense to try and relocate the cargo facilities and say even the catering and build a pier and extension of T2 down there from T2 in the direction of the 411 /412/413/ 414 stands. Just from eyeballing on google maps you could probably get a total of 6 or 7 extra gates in total of which maybe 3 could be wide-body.

Nibs05 · 14-07-2016 08:32PM

Strumms wrote: »

I'd say they will have to look at that alright. I know the focus has been on the runway but with all the extra capacity that can facilitate it's no good if you can't provide the ramp support for the carriers. It would have made a lot of sense to try and relocate the cargo facilities and say even the catering and build a pier and extension of T2 down there from T2 in the direction of the 411 /412/413/ 414 stands. Just from eyeballing on google maps you could probably get a total of 6 or 7 extra gates in total of which maybe 3 could be wide-body.

That's what is exactly planned at some point in the future.

Bussywussy · 14-07-2016 09:10PM

they've already started the work for those stands.i think 1 remote widebody stand will be down the end

LXFlyer · 14-07-2016 09:39PM

Nibs05 wrote: »

That's what is exactly planned at some point in the future.

I'm not sure the plan in the diagram above should be treated as gospel - it is predicated on the removal of 16/34 which we understand is no longer the case.

That will have a bearing on how future piers develop, particularly the 3XX gates.

Jamie2k9 · 14-07-2016 10:18PM

Nibs05 wrote: »

That's what is exactly planned at some point in the future.

That plan is scrapped, A/B won't happen, F would IMO be the next big piece of work to take place however it's some time off.

AndyBoBandy · 15-07-2016 09:34AM

Speaking of models, I'd mentioned before about an A330 model in the old livery down at the Aughinish Alumnia refinery in Limerick.

Bussywussy · 15-07-2016 10:17AM

cough** is that an A330

goingnowhere · 15-07-2016 11:01AM

EI cut a interesting deal and became the first trans Atlantic flights with the A330 under ETOPS

EI-DUB and EI-SNN came in the 'old' livery, not sure about ORD

AndyBoBandy · 15-07-2016 11:16AM

Fattes · 15-07-2016 12:06PM

Nice photos of the A350 Model and the A330 in old livery thanks

Tenger wrote: »

As above. Dont think so. The 2015-2020 expansion of 1 aircraft per year was planned by EI. IAG promised to double that. This order is merely confirming rumours.
I expect clarity on the status of the 'EI' A350 situation will be given in November. After all they are IAG A350s now.

Yeah really can not see why they wouldnt allocate at least 2 to EI, allow a bit of flexibility in terms of PAX for certain flights, and give added options to routes and other opportunities without a delay or having to lease aircraft.

Bussywussy wrote: »

they've already started the work for those stands.i think 1 remote widebody stand will be down the end

The construction on the east side (R132) as I understand is currently only an Aporn, but it is part of the larger plan to add new gates going forward

duskyjoe · 15-07-2016 05:08PM

Fattes, EIN is a minnow tiny airline compared to the brutes out there including Ryanair. For them to enter a mix of 350s into the batch of 330s in service is uneconomical re tooling up and off site crew training initially. The 330 has been an amazingly efficient unit for the EIN route structure. The 242t adv 330s coming are a serious bus and has the legs to make the west coast near fully loads...Even in 2016 the a330 is a class leader in the twin market unlike the 767. I can't see a 350 on Dublins ramp for the foreseeable future but I can see is 330 300 advs replacing the 200s and 321 neos replacing the 757s on a thinner med/long haul routes.

Fattes · 15-07-2016 05:12PM

duskyjoe wrote: »

Fattes, EIN is a minnow tiny airline compared to the brutes out there including Ryanair. For them to enter a mix of 350s into the batch of 330s in service is uneconomical re tooling up and off site crew training initially. The 330 has been an amazingly efficient unit for the EIN route structure. The 242t adv 330s coming are a serious bus and has the legs to make the west coast near fully loads...Even in 2016 the a330 is a class leader in the twin market unlike the 767. I can't see a 350 on Dublins ramp for the foreseeable future but I can see is 330 300 advs replacing the 200s and 321 neos replacing the 757s on a thinner med/long haul routes.

Sure its not like its a member of one of the worlds largest airline groups that has nearly 40 A350 on order :rolleyes: Ryanair must have been a massive world airline from day one!

duskyjoe · 15-07-2016 05:18PM

Fattes wrote: »

Sure its not like its a member of one of the worlds largest airline groups that has nearly 40 A350 on order :rolleyes: Ryanair must have been a massive world airline from day one!

sorry Fattes, your closer and wiser to the action than me.:rolleyes:

Aer Lingus Fleet/Routes Discussion

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