⚠️ Storm Éowyn - Fri 24.01.25 (**Please read Mod Instruction in OP.**)

.Donegal.

From GEF Perturbation 22 on the 14th of this month. Obviously no where deep as this or cold and 4 days out but perhaps it was sniffing out the possibility of something nuts afoot.

BorneTobyWilde

At least it's blowing in over night, and the worst will be over by midday

HarriGalway

I assume there’s nothing I can do in prep- only charge everything up and have food in , candles torches ready..

Sorry I’m just a bit nervous as here on my own with a 2 year old, East of Galway city.

People are also not taking it seriously at all. I was in Tesco earlier and the usual chat of “ah it might pass us by”.

There are massive trees at back of house , from a neighbours garden. My 2 year old sleeps on that side, maybe I should move her tomorrow night.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123087519#Comment_123087519

Is it too late for an evacuation order. I know some will think this is ridiculous to suggest, but if Arpege is right surely it's warranted for people on these islands and those on coastal fringes of the west. I really fear there could be fatalities from this storm.

US3

Evacuation order Jesus Christ I'm out ✌️

Mariehart

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123087531#Comment_123087531

Essentially it's a hurricane, particularly in the Galway vicinity. We don't get hurricanes, so we don't board up houses and drive to evacuation centres like they do in the US. Red is our top warning and we had one just before Christmas in Galway where frankly nothing happened except my neighbour lost a wall when a tree fell on it.

So I don't care what they call it. This is exponentially a worse storm than anything we've experienced before.

Mark my words, on Friday evening parts of the country will be a disaster zone and the recrimations will begin.

strawdog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123087518#Comment_123087518

From UCD registrar and dep president:

UCD will be closing all University buildings for the day on Friday 24 January, with the exception of the Village and residences. 

squarecircles

https://youtube.com/shorts/Junj05vi5wg?si=9i0DqY5eJSZUPLvA

Eriely quiet, in west Mayo this evening.

TTLF

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123087560#Comment_123087560

Cheers! I'll let my friends who have class know

lucalux

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123087533#Comment_123087533

Thanks for posting - gonna have nightmares about that! 😅

Fascinating stuff though, apart from the heads-up from this thread and the knowledgeable posters like yourselves, it's a great place to learn a few extra bits along the way.

Where I live I'm sheltered in the main from SW winds, so I have hope my house will bear up OK, but my mother's is a building site, so I'll be spending the day battening down the hatches there.

I really hope this doesn't materialise to the extent that is being modelled, and I've been guilty of enjoying a bit of interesting weather in my day.

Even if people heed the warnings and stay home - the risks to homes, businesses, and infrastructure is worrying, at least compared to what I've seen in my lifetime

The Mathematician

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123087518#Comment_123087518

UCD is closed all day on Friday, staff got an email at 7pm.

Steopo

To see forecasted wind gusts in excess of 200km on the Galway coast is very concerning, let’s hope everyone takes the appropriate precautions. At those speeds it’s not just fallen trees, flying trampolines but a risk of more serious structural damage. We can all get carried away with model forecasts & warnings and maybe actual gusts won’t be as high but this looks like the real deal & best to heed the advice given for a red warning.

lucalux

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123087557#Comment_123087557

Red level warning criteria might not be met in all areas during their duration, and you know weather can be extremely localised, especially in cities, depending on elevation and street orientation etc etc

Red warnings are simple:

"Rare and very dangerous weather conditions from intense meteorological phenomena.

Take action to protect yourself and your property."

Whether people need a public advisory committee to meet on how best to explain to people that RED = BAD

but ALSO - that Red may not materialise in your back garden?

well maybe that's something we need to do.

Suggesting that we further complicate the weather warning system will lead to more shyte-hawking from people who already think a red warning is to be scoffed at.
Either we accept the warning system as is, take it as seriously as necessary -

while recognising that not every Red warning will be applicable in hindsight to your specific area…

or we start picking out the colours for a Skittles pack of warning systems that eventually will lose all meaning and which people will ignore or be confused by

ottolwinner

it’s a good job trees are few and far between in the Aran islands. Used to live there but won’t miss being there this next few days.

spookwoman

Issued at 21:10 UTC

Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 23 Jan 2025 06:00 to Fri 24 Jan 2025 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 22 Jan 2025 21:10
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 2 was issued for S UK mainly for severe wind gusts with a few tornado events possible. A strong event cannot be ruled out.

A level 1 surrounds the level 2 area with a similar risk but lower probabilities.

SYNOPSIS

The flow pattern over W Europe turns more zonal during this forecast in response to substantial geopotential height decrease over the NE Atlantic.

This drop in thickness is accompanied by an impressive 200 kt zonal jet along its southern fringe, which points towards NW Europe. A rapidly approaching surface low from the SW (probably in form of a diabatic Rossby wave) crosses this jet to the north. Its attendant moisture rich cross-isentropic WCB ascent and attendant strong irrotational wind response cause a splitting upper jet with a resultant coupled jet configuration (combined with extreme upper divergence). A 24h MSLP drop in the latitude corrected 2 bergeron range is forecast and this depression approaches Ireland during the end of the forecast from the SW. It reveals an impressive warm seclusion structure and we would not be surprised to see a mixed cold jet (potential sting jet) event evolving offshore with NWP guidance offering gusts up to 200 km/h. Convective-wise there seems to be no substantial risk of activity despite some isolated CI along the leading edge of the NE ward wrapping dry slot. Forecast soundings don't support electrified convection. Anyhow, severe to extreme gusts are possible, but limited confidence in CI precludes any level issuance. Slantwise convection along the tip of the cold jet remains offshore until 06Z without lightning activity.

One part of the splitting upper jet dives into a lead impulse, which results in a sharp trough passage over parts of UK. This event becomes the main player for DMC activity.

DISCUSSION

... S UK ...

An active cold front passage is forecast during the daytime hours, placed beneath the left exit of an intense mid/upper jet (e.g. up to 45 m/s at 700 hPa). The accompanied upper trough is filled with IPV rich air, so combined with strong QG lift we expect modest instability build-up in an extreme shear environment. Forecast hodographs are rather straight, but offer abundant LL shear with lots of LL streamwise vorticity, so rotating updrafts are possible, including a risk of a few tornados and severe gusts. Given rapid translation of thunderstorms, any tornado could be long-tracked and even a strong event cannot be ruled out. The main tornado risk seems to evolve along and S of a Bristol-London line, where the highest BL moisture resides in a low LCL environment. Limited LL CAPE could confine the overall risk more to the coastal areas (up to 200 J/kg), but not much modification is needed for some better LLCAPE build-up further N.
Convection my race E towards the coastal areas of W Belgium/SW Netherlands with an ongoing severe gust risk.

Avon8

From what I can tell there was more hype and caution about Ophelia, simply because it was called 'Hurricane Ophelia' until a late stage.

Conversely we've had plenty of Red warnings in recent years, some impactful and some not. This has made people complacent about Red warnings, and this looks a level far above any Red warning we've had in those years

If actual Hurricane like winds are likely to hit Galway (and elsewhere), I think it's reasonable to ask that a warning that surpasses Red be issued. Increased use of the word "Hurricane", however holistically incorrect, would probably be a help to start

nacho libre

If the gusts in excess of 200 kmh come to pass there will be major and extensive structural damage to buildings on the Islands. Perhaps I was going over the top in what I said, but many of the Island people, who are hardy and well used to storms, will probably not have seen a storm like this in their lifetime.

TheHolyGoalie

Couldn't believe the amount of trees I seen on my drive home from work yesterday evening which obviously looked like they had just been cut and taken down during the day. Really seems like people are really taking this seriously and rightly so

spookwoman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123087595#Comment_123087595

I'd say a few of these mobile home parks on the west coast around Galway and Clare are worried. I hope they are getting anyone who may be staying there out.

PixelCrafter

They really need to evacuate anyone who is in a mobile home during the storm in those locations. If those modelled wind speeds are accurate, it’s highly unlikely mobile homes would survive.

TheHolyGoalie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123087600#Comment_123087600

If they were smart enough they could rent them out to those Hurricane Hunters supposedly coming over from the States for a nice lumpsome

geographica

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123087596#Comment_123087596

Possible coincidence as you generally need a tree felling licence?

TheHolyGoalie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123087610#Comment_123087610

I'm not sure they were along back country roads and not peoples properties, I just presumed they must have been trees which had been damaged or weakened from the storm a few weeks ago

M.T. Cranium

Centre is now starting to fall into 990s, located at 42 N 46 W. Atlantic SST values are near 21 C. The steadily (later explosively) deepening centre will head to a position near 51N 20W by 18z Thursday, going below 950 there.

ARPEGE deepens it to 936 which is why it also depicts strongest winds; other guidance goes only to 942-945 range.

Current satellite:

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_sigwx_1070_100.jpg

(will probably update, later readers, check xx:xx z above depiction for actual hour at viewing).

sdanseo

Trying hard to balance not being overdramatic with still interpreting the charts factually but Harmonie seems even stronger again on the 21Z.

7am frame mean speeds in Galway Bay of up to 140-150km/h.
8am frame gusts penetrating inland including over Galway City 160-180km/h.
9am frame middle third of the country widespread gusts to 150km/h.

The only saving grace is that it's moving so fast the extreme peak winds won't last more than a few hours for most. That's not much of a silver lining really.

Esel

^^^^

Thunder87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123087476#Comment_123087476

I didn't hear the radio forecast but I think it's a fair point in general, ME have a tendency in their media broadcasts to always just fly through the forecast as fast as possible while maintaining a 'business as usual' theme.

The storm track and intensity has been extremely consistent for days on models yet the forecast after the 9 o'clock news in particular I found a bit ridiculous, it showed the frontal rain that's due tomorrow evening/night then just ended the forecast without showing the actual storm in any detail at all, only on a brief zoomed out full Atlantic view.

Given the potential seriousness it's a bit bizarre

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123087507#Comment_123087507

To be fair, they are made of sterner stuff than the rest of us.

And also, they get conditions exceeding Force 10 really quite often, when you wouldn't barely have a breeze in a town or city on the mainland.

Let's face it, the biggest risks in Force 11/12 storms are; a) being out at sea, they know to avoid that b) flying debris, their structures are well built for high winds and there is shag all trees on the west coast islands to worry about and c) loss of power, again they are well tooled up for that happening often, but without trees to fall, they probably don't lose any more connections that we would anywhere else.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123087628#Comment_123087628

Yes. I thought it was a poor forecast too. As you say very light on detail for such a major storm. You'd miss Evelyn at times like this.

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

Above is an ECM wind gust projection 6 hours before Storm Darragh, courtesy of Meteorite. Most models were similar.

What puzzles me is Oak Park Carlow's highest gust was 96km. Yet the projections here were for 110-120km, 20km higher. Quite far off the mark quite near the event.

Speeds for Darragh were well off projections. It punched above it's wind speeds, in terms of destruction, due to wind direction etc.