Dynamic electricity pricing finally coming this year

unkel

This thread is for discussing everything about flexible plans in Ireland

Most of us have seen the paper from the CRU:

https://cruie-live-96ca64acab2247eca8a850a7e54b-5b34f62.divio-media.com/documents/Dynamic_Electricity_Price_Tariffs_-_Decision_Paper_002.pdf

Summary:

The five suppliers are: Bord Gáis Energy, Electric Ireland, Energia, PrePay Power/Yuno and SSE Airtricity. These must offer a Dynamic Price
Contract to customers by 1 October 2025

Dynamic Price Contract :

1. A Standing Charge – this is a fixed amount that is charged, regardless of energy
   consumption.
2. A Base Unit Rate Charge – this is a unit rate that is set and charged for each unit of
   electricity consumption (This rate can be a flat rate or incorporate time of use rates).
3. A Dynamic Unit Rate Charge – this is a unit rate that varies in each half-hour period of the
   day and is charged for each unit of electricity consumption.

1 and 2 can be set by the provider

con747

A thread here on it.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058370649/dynamic-pricing-tariffs

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123028060#Comment_123028060

Indeed, but a bit cluttered. My intention was to make this a clean thread with all info directly at hand in the OP, then discussion below

unkel

Here is the link to the day ahead pricing from SEMOpx

https://www.semopx.com/market-data/market-results/

JayBee66

Is there going to be the possibility that the dynamic unit rate will go negative and possibly negate the base unit rate or will the dynamic rate only go to zero or not even that?

Obviously, I like the idea of being able to purchase electricity for nothing. My future plans might include batteries and/or car with V2X and/or storage heaters instead of A2A heat pump. Zero or near zero electricity cost might influence what I do.

I have €1500 of credit on my SSE account but factoring out the government payments, the FIT payments only constitute €100 of that credit so I need to be planning for a time when the government stops handing out free money.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123028368#Comment_123028368

Yes there is the possibility of the rate going negative. But looking at historical data, this hasn't really happened much in Ireland as we simply do not have enough renewables yet.

In other markets more ahead of Ireland like the UK, the Netherlands and Norway, the price goes negative very regularly. In the Netherlands, the price goes negative nearly any time there is a sunny or windy day. There it is very lucrative to have a dynamic contract particularly if you can store negative priced electricity and then sell back to the grid when the price is positive again later on that day or the next day

So unfortunately for the foreseeable: flexible contracts in Ireland are a damp squib

10-10-20

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123028368#Comment_123028368

It has gone negative in the past. I pulled samples of data across the year between Feb 2023 to Feb 2024 and did an analysis on it. For 35 day samples over that period only one had negative EUR/MWh values, but they were nothing to be excited about.

The specific date was on the 20th of Sept 2023 where the overnight prices dipped to a low of -3 EUR/MWh.

The Winter season had the highest standard deviation, most likely because of the effect of higher periods of wind causing market fluctuation as it competed against gas/oil etc.

Whether a negative value will be passed onto the end-user is the other question. At no point was negative pricing mentioned or implied in the initial documentation, but that's not to say that I don't think that it will, but it was just interesting to observe it's omission.

unkel

Negative pricing will by definition be passed on to the end user, subject of course to the "2. Base Unit charge rate" top up added by the electricity providers

What do people expect this top up to be? I expect it to be around 3-5c

SD_DRACULA

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123028603#Comment_123028603

So people will expect some sort of Octopus tariff but what will probably happen is a sort of half-assed implementation tickbox exercise that will benefit no one (like smart tariffs were supposed to save people money but is ripping them off instead, EV plans excluded)

Only thing might offset it is if the FIT goes up significantly during peak hours but even then it's too small to do anything with the stupid 5-6kw limits.

ECO_Mental

Looking forward to it also and gives many options for cost saving etc.. but when the Celtic Interconnector comes online (2026 I think) this might do away with negative pricing as any excess will be pushed to France…this the whole idea of this connection.

10-10-20

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123028685#Comment_123028685

Exactly, and if we were to use your suggested pricing of 3-5c per kWh then that will negate the negative rates as it only hit -3 EUR/MWh, or -0.03 EUR/kWh (or minus three cents) at it's lowest point. So in effect you might never see a reasonable negative value; plus if the FiT is reduced then you're on the long end of the whip on all aspects except for your self-generated power.

unkel

Aye, the Pinergy 5c import, 25c export plan is still active. If still so by my renewal date early September, I will likely sign up for another 2 years. It is extrememly profitable for anyone with a large battery. You don't even have to have PV or an EV. In fact I might look into renewing early (in case the plan disappears)

10-10-20

Here's the data broken our per hour of the day/ per season for that same period (yes, I know it's hectic).

Here's the yearly data per hour of the day:

Note the average hovering around 110 EUR/MWh (11c kWh) and SD being around ~40 EUR/MWh (so variance of around 4c). That is then your 'typical' pricing range - 7c to 15c at market rates (less the base unit charge).

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058386829/dynamic-electricity-pricing-finally-coming-this-year

Few questions and apologies if you don't have the answers

Who sets the Dynamic Unit Rate Charge?

Do we get to choose which rate we want on a half-hourly basis? Ie if the dynamic unit rate is 10c higher can we choose the base unit rate and vice-versa?

Do we need a smart meter avail of this?

Seems an auful lot like what we already have with smart meter plans or am I missing something?

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123028851#Comment_123028851

Year average about 12c. I'd rather stick to my year average of 6c. And have guaranteed year long 25c FIT

Good work though, thanks for sharing the analysed data!

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123028858#Comment_123028858

1. the market sets the rate for the day. By providers bidding the day before and lowest bidder(s) get it. The market is the all Ireland (32 counties) electricity market
2. no. you sign up for the plan, you pay the rates as set by the market. Same for buying as for selling. Plus the uplift from your electricity provider
3. yes you need smart meter
4. the rates are fully dynamic, so different from what we have with our fixed import and export rates. In NL for example, any time the sun is expected to shine around the midday hours the next day, you have to pay to export solar PV to the grid

10-10-20

Who sets the Dynamic Unit Rate Charge?

It's traded on a 'day ahead' market so the it's open to power providers and large consumers/suppliers, etc.

https://www.semopx.com/markets/day-ahead-market/

Member listing:

https://www.semopx.com/joining-the-market/how-to-join/

Do we get to choose which rate we want on a half-hourly basis? Ie if the dynamic unit rate is 10c higher can we choose the base unit rate and vice-versa?

If you sign-up then you're taking accepting the day-ahead rates as published. Your defense against higher rates is your ability to import and store lower rate power and then consume it at a time when the rates are as their highest. I believe that there will be an opt-out where you won't be contractually obliged to remain tied in, but that's all to be seen.

Do we need a smart meter avail of this?

A functioning smart meter is required, yes.

Seems an auful lot like what we already have with smart meter plans or am I missing something?

No it's not, these are dynamic market rates as opposed to demand (peak/offpeak) pricing. Big difference.

10-10-20

…and just to be clear, I'm not in the business of or have an interest in selling or promoting this. I just did the analysis as a lay-person effectively. It's up to you to decide on the basis of the data and your own analysis.

10-10-20

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123028923#Comment_123028923

Seasonal variation will play a part here, but this isn't the same dynamic pricing like in Texas. As some of you may recall in Texas in Feb 2021 they had a significant freeze and the market pricing increased the demand unit rate to $9 kWh. I know a guy who used $300 of power that morning just warming the house and boiling the kettle… 😁 That can't happen here as there are caps placed on the unit rates.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123028974#Comment_123028974

Should have bought a genny when he signed up for that plan 😂

That wasn't the first BTW, in a heatwave in 2019 also in Texas, the unit price went up to $9 too. Should have installed some PV to keep cool and run that aircon for free…

Love these rates BTW. People (like us in here) with powerful inverters and large (battery) storage could make an absolute fortune with these sort of peaks and negative troughs, probably €20-30k per year per household

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123028923#Comment_123028923

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123028940#Comment_123028940

On paper it sounds somewhat logical although relying on "the market" for pricing hasn't done us very well in the past, notably when Ukraine was invaded, so I'd be very cautious before signing up to such a tarriff.

Interesting that the lowest price is what we will pay, rather than the current situation of paying the highest one.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123028974#Comment_123028974

I don't believe our rates in Ireland are capped although they are in the UK

ted1

It'll be interesting to see how they manage the traditional winter peak. the SMP for €/kWh can be very high during these periods.

graememk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123029228#Comment_123029228

The dynamic price, on these proposed plans have a cap

10-10-20

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123029228#Comment_123029228

If you're playing the long-game and have sufficient battery storage then you're more likely to out-ride any temporary fluctuations.

Or even just trying to avoid any import around the 08:00 to 10:00 and 16:00 to 20:00 high-tariff windows, then you should do better than any consumer package tariff rates.

On the price-caps, I may have been wrong there as I don't see wholesale or consumer caps now that I look again, but at the end of the day Texas was a basket-case as they had an insular approach and an isolated grid & market; but that's not the subject of this discussion.

graememk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123029378#Comment_123029378

I'll look again, I was sure the document said about price caps, I think it was 50c for the variable rate.

Doing the automation for it will take a while to get right. Couple of ideas, most of the cheap rates are overnight and generally in a block, and thus pick the x number of intervals you need to charge.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123029378#Comment_123029378

Texas has learnt their lesson. Since then they have been on a race installing wind, PV and battery at break-neck speeds and they are now more renewable than California. Who'd have thought that about the oil red neck state?

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123029331#Comment_123029331

But not the standing charge or the base unit rate. Be interesting to see what the prices will be like

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123029378#Comment_123029378

Yes but since battery storage is quite expensive, last I checked it was about €1k/kWh, you would have a long payback period

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123029718#Comment_123029718

You can get 15kWh cells plus a BMS delivered to your door from a reputable EU company for not much more than €1k incl. VAT and shipping. Pretty much all of us in here with powerful inverters already have or are planning to install more battery. My own home battery is 80kWh

If the usable capacity of this addition is 90% and you can fill it once a day and your charge and discharge losses are 20% and you are with Pinergy, then it makes €788 per year. Or a pay back period of a bit over 15 months

Calculation: 365 days * 15kWh capacity * 90% usable * 80% efficiency * (€0.25 FIT - €0.05 cost) = €788

the_amazing_raisin

Just to double check, the dynamic tariff currently covers import only, not export?

For example the market price today at peak times is up to 29c/kWh, however I would just receive the FIT from my supplier if I exported during that time?

I had to roll my eyes when I saw the standing charge would still be included. No doubt it'll be similar to the regular tariffs at several hundred per year (think Flogas is around €300 currently)

The whole excuse from suppliers was that it covered market fluctuations and network costs. However since those are basically filtered out then it'll be plain to see they're charging a few hundred per year for all the hard work sending you a bill 😤

SD_DRACULA

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123029718#Comment_123029718

Wrong (depending on your export) I got two packs of 16kwh that paid for themselves already using FIT over the course of 2024 so just export as much as you can. DIY packs of course, not the nonsense prices for off the shelf stuff ofc but even those are coming down these days