FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Rebelbrowser

thought I saw it around 7.20pm? No easterly but a bit more of a trend that direction

coillsaille

At this stage I'm checking in to see how much charge is left in almostthere's phone rather than what the charts are showing.

Form horse always wins it seems when it comes to these tantalising signals of cold.

Gonzo

Form Horse is the true Beast, everything else from the north or east is almost powerless except in the most rarest conditions.

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123165039#Comment_123165039

Winter is over, phone battery nearly at 0%……..over and out!! 😋

Seriously though been an interesting winter model watching as there were very low expectations going into it but it didn't really delivered for me personally (south of Cork city). Rain to snow in November and rain to snow in January that only delivered a slight dusting, although the young fella got to build snowmen at his grandparents both times, they are west of Cork city.

It would be interesting to see the stats but I believe we had a lot of high pressure systems this winter but they mostly brought cloud and drizzle to here anyway as they were sourced from the southwest.

pauldry

The recent charts are backing off cold. I'd say Winter is over . Anything now will be shortlived. Mid February usually the cut off for long cold

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123166921#Comment_123166921

Yep winter is done until next December. I threw in the towel once the GFS backed off the cold and the SSW nearly 2 weeks ago. After this weekend the rest of February looks to be double digits. We will probably get another short lived insipid cold spell in March but that's Spring. I don't want an SSW either at this stage, just let the PV die naturally over the Spring.

The PV this winter has been incredibly strong, there has been plenty of fairly major warmings and they have done very little to weaken the PV and from the looks of things further warmings will take place over the next 2 weeks and the PV keeps going and going and going and still in business by 1st week of March.

bazlers

Wrap it Up, Winter is done. Roll on Spring. Never mind the the forecasting even the hopecasting is at a very low ebb for ice/snow. It certainly was'nt a boring Winter though.

sryanbruen

As soon as the signal for a major SSW had disappeared from the GFS output via a weakening of the Ural blocking, I immediately lost interest in the "chase" for this cold. Not that a major SSW would guarantee a favourable setup for driving cold air our way with a decent fetch but it would give us a good roll of the dice with how the PV would be split. Otherwise it was inevitable a stretch of the vortex would lead to yet another displacement of cold air into North America in my opinion.

There is also personal bias that I am less interested in any sort of wintry weather by this point in the season. What I am glad for is that the benign weather has allowed power to be restored at last to people.

Can we please have some sunshine soon though? It's getting a little tedious.

WolfeEire

This evening's weather models suggest little sign of very cold weather in the long range outlook.

In analysing data from the last 5 GEFS ensembles for a Midlands location in Ireland for midday two weeks today, W-SW winds and average temps (6-9c) are favoured.

esposito

2 incredible beasts we have to deal with - The Polar Vortex and the Atlantic. No wonder we get such crap winters. It’s almost impossible to get a decent easterly and northerly these days.

The only consolation this year is the 1st of March could well be mild day bucking the trend of the last few years.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123168513#Comment_123168513

Unfortunately those are the 2 major beasts that ruins the chances of seeing snow for the majority of the east every winter. We need both beasts asleep in order to have a chance of getting a decent easterly with properly cold uppers. As we've seen this winter and most other winters marginal uppers for snow do not bode well for the east when there is always an onshore wind off the Irish sea that turns everything to cold rain. That's why I always look for -8 uppers at a minimum and -10 uppers to be confident and we don't get these sort of uppers from slider lows without having properly cold air locked in place to begin with. Midlands and western areas can get snow from these events with much less of an influence from the Irish sea compared to eastern coastal counties. Maybe we will have better luck next winter.

WolfeEire

i have experienced two significant snowfall events and two disruptive storms this winter. It's been a winter like none other for me. To see the long range charts throw up such inpsidly bland muck for the next two weeks is an anti climatical end to the season.

WolfeEire

Low Pressure will dominate Ireland’s weather for the remainder of February bringing unsettled, wet and sometimes windy conditions. The coming fortnight’s weather follows a cool and gloomy first half of February that delivered largely overcast conditions, slightly below average temperatures and generally below average rainfall totals.

Air temperatures will be well above the seasonal average everywhere from early next week in a moderate to strong southerly airflow.

Rainfall totals for the next two weeks will be highest in the southwest and West, with totals of up to the end of the month potentially reaching 150mm and 200m on high ground in south Kerry and West Cork. Totals will be lower in the northern half of Leinster and east Ulster where 50mm to 80mm can be expected over the next 14 days.

Winds will be moderate southerly or southwesterly, occasionally fresh to strong for the period. There will be rain or showers on most days with Monday, Wednesday and Friday of next week looking like bringing the most unsettled conditions.

Detailed analysis:

The first graphic relates to a Midlands location and are based off data from the GFS model. The red line represents the mean of all 32 members of the model run. There is little sign of any extended period of dry weather over the next 16 days, nor is there strong support for high pressure to build or a colder airmass to become established over Ireland.

The next two images are based on the output of 32 GFS members over successive runs. The data illustrates the anticipated wind direction and 850 hPa temperatures for midday on Thursday, 27 November. The most favoured outcome is for W-SW winds and above average temperatures for the time of year.

Thunder87

Potentially a brief spell of partly cloudy weather in Dublin this day week going by latest forecasts on ME, still too far out to be reliable but worth keeping an eye on

WolfeEire

There will be little reprieve for farmers in the coming week as heavy rain is expected, which will result in well-drained soils becoming saturated and moderately and poorly drained soils becoming waterlogged.

Rainfall totals in southern and western coastal counties of 50-100mm will be up to three times more than the average for the time of year with the higher totals being recorded in elevated areas. Totals will range from 30-50mm further east and north, which is 50% above average. The lowest totals will be in the Dublin area. There will be rainfall each day, with the highest daily totals expected on Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Next weekend may provide a brief reprieve before unsettled conditions return.

The coming week’s unsettled weather is in stark contrast to the past week which saw a reverse situation in relation to rainfall totals. The west, midland and northwest of the country experienced drier than normal conditions, but it was wetter than normal elsewhere. Malin Head in Donegal recorded just 3.2mm (13% of average) in comparison to Cork Airport’s 55.6mm of rainfall, which is 222% of its average for the time of year.

Belmullet in Mayo recorded 18.8 hours of sunshine (120% of average), while Dublin Airport was shrouded in cloud for 7 days running, marking the longest sunless streak here since January 1987 (according to @sryanbruen).

The milder air that has pushed into Munster will continue to spread to the rest of Ireland as the coming week progresses with temperatures eventually reaching 3-4C above average by midweek. This follows a cool week that saw mean temperatures of 7C in southwestern counties compared to 2.9C in north Connacht and Ulster.

WolfeEire

This afternoon's GFS indicates some potential for strong winds impacting Ireland later next week into the following week, namely Friday (21st), Sunday (23rd) and Tuesday (25th). The US model has a tendency to amplify storm potential in its medium to long range output, but it is expected that the Jet Stream will become energised next week as a result of a deep pool of cold air sinking into the northeasttern United States. One to keep an eye on.

SeaBreezes

A glimmer of hope for the coldies. Winter is coming way way out in fantasy island... 2031 to 2050... This solar physicist Zharakova is bang on the money. One of 2 people worldwide who correctly predicted the last solar cycle being half the previous one. (Nasa got it wrong) and it looks like shes bang on with this solar cycle as well if it starts to drop from now. She gets hounded because she also explains warming is sun changes as well. But she seems to be right so far... mods apologies if wrong place feel free to move. Thought ye might be interested.

https://youtu.be/SawIG4TNpHQ?feature=shared

WolfeEire

Latest weather model output shows potential for strong winds on Sunday as a low pressure system tracks between Iceland and Ireland.

The latest GFS shows wind gusts of more than 110 km/h affecting Ulster and counties along Ireland's Atlantic seaboard.

Mean wind speeds in excess of 60 km/hare also indicated for these areas.

WolfeEire

This afternoon's ICON takes Sunday's low pressure system a little closer to our northwest coast. Max gusts of circa 100-110km/h, strongest in the northwest and north. It remains to be seen if this system will be a named storm (next on the list is Storm Floris), but it is currently well within Status Yellow wind alert territory if the below were to verify.

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123177336#Comment_123177336

I hope they let me out to the door of the nursing home to see the snow 😅

WolfeEire

Tonight's run of the GFS has upgraded the winds associated with a low pressure system tracking to Ireland's northwest this Sunday. The model shows maximum wind gusts of 120-130km/h for exposed Atlantic coastal areas, with sustained wind speeds of 65-75 km/h. The strongest winds are being kept offshore. The storm's central pressure is an impressive 948mb on tonight's GFS.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123182761#Comment_123182761

Might see a few orange warnings donegal to kerry I'd say at this early stage, would classify as a named storm. Certainly won't help with clean up from the last storm

Ros4Sam24

March 1st. If it’s anything like that day last year I’ll be happy

ECM

1st March 24

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123185452#Comment_123185452

I'd say March 1st, since 2010, has had more snow days than any other date!

Robwindstorm

The GFS has mad charts for the end of February and start of March. It has incredibly cold air spilling down from Canada firing up the atlantic into a frenzy. Storm Eowyn was the result of something similar but we're in FI and the charts are totally confused with this possible projection of cold air. Interesting t watch nonetheless!

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123188297#Comment_123188297

Indeed the first week of March looks like a conveyor of low pressure systems. One massive 925mb storm over Iceland at the end of that week. I'm completely done with interesting weather now, I want calm spring conditions with a bit of sunshine. It has been such a miserable run of weather since January now.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123188549#Comment_123188549

Temperatures will fluctuate next week into the opening week or two of March as successive low pressure systems draw in a polar maritime airmass.

This mild to cool to mild Atlantic zonal setup is a familiar weather pattern for Ireland in late winter.

The unsettled weather conditions will continue into next week and for much of the opening half of February with low pressure systems passing to the north of Ireland and higher pressure to the south.

Winds will generally be moderate to fresh westerly. The weather will rotate between colder showery periods and periods of rain and wind.

With soil conditions at saturation point for well to moderately drained soils and poorly drained soils currently waterlogged, it is likely that rainfall warnings will be issued as we close out February and head into the beginning the meteorological spring.

Meteorite58

Fairly unsettled at times all right with some big rainfall totals showing up, a mix of drier days and heavy frontal rains at times at times, alternating mild and cool. A few frosty nights in parts there also.

Gonzo

I really did not enjoy this winter, December was just incredibly mild and bland. January was very windy and too much cold rain. February went overboard with the gloom, dark, drizzle and nagging windchill, the coldest feeling February I've ever experienced that was not technically cold and without any form of ice, frost or snow and now we're going to finish off what's left of February and Winter with the conveyer belt.

I hope Spring is going to be a mild and dryish one, hopefully more in the way of sunshine than what we saw this winter. My main thoughts have now turned to summer 2025, I want it to be a good one after more than a continuous year of mostly crap weather under our belts since 2023. I do not want a repeat of the chill of summer 2024.

If I could cherry pick 2 days that I actually did enjoy this winter, it was the start of the cold spell early January where we had 2 very sunny days and frost persisting on the ground over 2 days made everything look like a winter scene. After this the 30+ hour cold rain event started and that's where my interest in this winter really fell apart, very little sunshine after this period.

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

There's a late February 1903 feel and look in FI.

We seriously don't need another big winter storm. And we're not out of the woods.