Donald Trump the Megathread part II - mod warnings in OP, Updated 06/06/25

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339720#Comment_123339720

The Irish government is on notice. We could lose a lot of high quality jobs and income.

Will_I_Amnt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339668#Comment_123339668

2 million job losses????

It'll be fine for Donie.....him and his cult will just blame Biden.

That's not even a joke!

REDBULL68

Media hype ,This not 1929 ,it will come back big time in a couple of days ,and a lot of people will be rich due to low stock prices, joke .

Kermit.de.frog

If Ireland wants to negate the effect of the tariffs it should leave the OECD tax treaty as the US did and reduce Corporation Tax. We only signed up to that deal after the US after much prodding. It's irrelevant now. We need to do what is in our national interest. Jobs and livelihoods are on the line.

Will_I_Amnt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339722#Comment_123339722

Does Trump think 30,000 Pharma workers in Ireland, their experience, and the facilities they work in, can be replicated in the US in a few weeks? If not, what does he think will happen to the already extortionate drug prices in the US and how does he think Americans will react to price increases? Is he sure that pharma companies are gonna care considering they offer products people have no choice but to purchase regardless of price.

How about the fact that these corporations still need to import ingredients from countries he has tariffed the **** out of?

How about the €55 Billion of Irish pharma exports in 2024 that went to places other than the US? Does he think those companies are going to want to be exporting to those countries from the US instead of from Ireland? Many of whom have tariffed the **** out of the US in retaliation?

There's A LOT of stuff that needs to happen before Ireland loses those jobs!

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339733#Comment_123339733

How in God's name is leaving the OECD tax treaty and reducting Corporation Tax going to negate the effect of tariffs?

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339745#Comment_123339745

It will negate it for US firms exporting back to the US - ie Pharma. It will also give the economy an advantage in spite of tariffs. We have control over this and it is a no-brainer.

I think it will happen very soon. An obvious counter measure that does not require EU approval.

Kermit.de.frog

Asian markets diving as 104% tariff is now in effect on China

https://www.investing.com/indices/japan-ni225

There will be serious losses in the US too judging by the futures market

https://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339747#Comment_123339747

I don't see how either withdrawing from the OECD tax treaty or reducing Corporation tax is going to negate the effect of tariffs for US firms importing pharmaceuticals from Ireland. This doesn't seem to make any sense at all. Can you explain?

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339752#Comment_123339752

They'll be paying considerably less tax and that negates the tariff for US exporters. It's not complicated.

The Americans left the OECD deal under Trump. Are you suggesting we don't have agency to do the same?

We only joined it after the US agreed.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339754#Comment_123339754

On a CT reduction negating the effect of the tariffs, can you show me your workings? 'Cause I don't see how this is going to stack up.

On withdrawing from the OECD tax treaty — yes, we can do that; any country can. I'm just looking for a reasoned case in support of your not-obviously-true assertion that it would be in our interests to do so.

Fun fact: Ireland exports about €58 billion p.a. to the US in pharma. If they are subject to a 20% tariff that will attract tariffs of just a shade under €12 billion. So:

(a) how much would Irish CT rates have to be cut so that US pharma companies operating in Ireland paid, between them, €12 billion less in corporation tax? (Do they even pay €12 billion now?)

(b) If Irish CT rates were cut by that much, what would the total reduction in CT take in Ireland be?

I ask because I know you've already done these calculations, because if you hadn't you'd be talking out of your arse, and we know you wouldn't do that, don't we?

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339757#Comment_123339757

I'm not answering your post for a reason. The mods, so I believe, take a dim view now of passive bullying which is your last sentence.

Post reported.

Mod Edit: Warned for backseat moderation

everlast75

It seems to me like market manipulation.

Every sentence uttered by Trump and his proxies has a direct and immediate effect on stock prices.

I am convinced they are absolutely cleaning up behind the scenes.

aidanodr

Looks like he is about to tariff PHARMA. Trump announces this at the National Republican Congressional Committee Tuesday night.

"We're gonna tariff our pharmaceuticals and once we do that they're going to come rushing back," he said. "The advantage we have over everybody is that we're the big market. We're going to be announcing very shortly a major tariff on pharmaceuticals."

https://www.salon.com/2025/04/08/theyre-kissing-my-ass-says-tariffs-are-going-great-promises-duty-on-pharmaceuticals/

Cody montana

I’m not overly familiar with the bond market.

But things look bad.

8-10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339765#Comment_123339765

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/global-markets-tariffs-treasuries-analysis-2025-04-09/

This is a good explainer article on what's happening and why

sock.rocker*

I don't really get the tariffs on pharma. The drugs are trademarked, the doctors prescribe them, and the insurance companies generally pay for them.

Why would you move a factory back to America when Americans still need to buy the drug you manufacture regardless of the price. A competing company can't start making the drug in America to undercut you.

For generics, it's different. But I assume the big money is in newer more expensive drugs.

dogbert27

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339763#Comment_123339763

And what American's should be asking themselves is why are they the biggest market for pharmaceutical drugs.

SaoPaulo41

BREAKING: Trump says US will soon announce tariffs on pharmaceutical imports

President Donald Trump on Tuesday said the U.S. will soon announce a "major" tariff on pharmaceutical imports.

Speaking to an event at the National Republican Congressional Committee, Trump said the tariff will incentivise drug companies to move their operations to the U.S.

Nandita Bose, Reuters

Vicxas

Surely that'll be the straw that breaks the camels back. Pharma make money hand over fist peddling price gouged paracetamol to US citizens. Messing with that will make a lot of their CEO's furious

eightieschewbaccy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339759#Comment_123339759

I think we'd all love to see your workings though. You've been claiming this as some master move and it seems more like you can't answer the question.

aloyisious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339661#Comment_123339661

Financiers for one. The party is run on donations. His stupidity has been harming their interests big time over the past few weeks. He is NOT A GOD and needs to to disabused of that idea, not confirmed in it.

sock.rocker*

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339769#Comment_123339769

How long till he threatens to stop paying back non-US held notes.

Akrasia

They'll just announce a silly figure 'we're gonna invest a trillion dollars in US facilities' Trump will claim the win. That investment will never happen because it takes at least half decade to commission a new biopharma facility even if the experienced and trained staff were available.

And with DOGE and RFK in charge of the FDA they won't have the staff or funding required to validate all these new facilities so no foreign markets would trust those facilities are safe and allow imports.

Monoclonal antibodies are incredibly valuable drugs but also very dangerous if not manufactured careful. (and the process is incredibly precise) It has happened in the past that some patients had their own immune systems turn against them from receiving a bad dose of a biopharma drug. Cytokine release syndrome

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6003181/

Akrasia

That would be detrimental to his friend Putins cash reserves

fullstop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123333592#Comment_123333592

He isn’t within an asses roar of 2.5 or 2.8. I doubt he’s below 12.5. He takes a gimme for anything inside 6 feet, so you could add 4 or 5 shots a round easily for that. Someone mentioned the round with Bryson…his putting stroke looks like he’s trying to gut a fish. Probably explains the gimmes.

SaoPaulo41

When Trump says "major" tariff on Pharma , what are we looking at 50% more?

Widdensushi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339793#Comment_123339793

It's the people using have to pay the tariff, surely they have some voice also.

Hoop66

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339759#Comment_123339759

So, you haven't done the calculations then?

And, thus, we can deduce that…

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339847#Comment_123339847

YOu can't read anything into "major". That word, along with "beautiful" and a few others, is used by Trump as a filler. It has literally zero meaning.

Trump has previously suggested pharmaceutical tariffs of "25% or higher", but Trump often suggests things that he does not follow through with. Saying now that the tariffs will be "major" doesn't really give us much more to work with.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339857#Comment_123339857

Not directly with Trump; he doesn't care about them. But Republican congressmen will be worried about the mid-term elections due in November next year, and they will be at least a bit attentive to constituents' concerns about the price of drugs. They have so far proved completely spineless when resisting anything Trump wants, but as the election approaches that may change.

(Congress does control tariffs; the President only has authority to impose tariffs in response to an emergency, and if Congress doesn't like the way he exercises that power it can overrule him.)