Donald Trump the Megathread part II - mod warnings in OP, Updated 06/06/25

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339432#Comment_123339432

Im aware of that but the Tanaiste does not officially negotiate on behalf of the EU as far as i know? Also Ludnick is pretty staunchly anti Ireland therefore i dont think sending Harris will do any good either way so that means nothing in my opinion.

LambshankRedemption

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339448#Comment_123339448

He was just quoted on the 10 O'clock show as saying, and i paraphrase "I have a team from the EU ready to go and talk to them".

It sounds to me like he is. He's just back from Luxembourg for a meeting on trade.

(yeah I know, the Journal)

https://www.thejournal.ie/eu-trade-meeting-tariffs-luxembourg-6670676-Apr2025/

All_in_Flynn

Has it actually been officially confirmed that they are implementing the extra tariffs on China apart from what that lunatic press sec said? I just wouldn't take her word at face value.

Like what is his actual goal here? Is he actually looking to devalue the dollar? That's the only thing I can think of. Make the dollar weak and go down the manufacturing route and make themselves attractive that way.

Bizarre but I can't think of anything else. He's not going to get golden deals from any major trading bloc. He'll get some of the smaller countries coming with hat in hand but it's a pittance in the grand scheme.

Sierra Oscar

US treasury yields are steadily increasing which is one to watch in the days ahead. Is Trump about to have his Liz Truss moment? They can only go so high before there is economic carnage in the US.

Trump officials were exclaiming that achieving a drop in yields was a core aim of their overall strategy yet the exact opposite is happening. Trump wants the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates but if treasuries keep going the way they are heading then they will have to increase rates. Terrible for Trump and terrible for the US economy!

US commentators seem a little shocked that yields are rising in the midst of the stock market turmoil as there is usually a flight to safety in US government bonds during economic turmoil. I don't think the penny has dropped with them yet, they can't understand why international investors are not interested in buying US debt and are instead actively offloading their holdings. Who in their right minds would buy US debt when they are actively imploding their economy?

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123336895#Comment_123336895

Moving some oil prices to Euro would be interesting as one of the reasons people need dollars is to buy oil.

Almost half of all physical dollars are held abroad. Something like a trillion dollars. Donald might make it harder to repatriate them, like print new notes and put a time limit on the old ones.

There's lots of ways you can tank the dollar. The UK tried quantitive easing. It made the pound less valuable but on the other hand exports didn't increase.

Tell me how

He's so bad at this.

Today, he's denigrating phone manufacturing jobs whike blowing smoke up the ass of coal miners, tomorrow, he'll be saying his tariffs are so successful Apple phones will now be made in the US and loads of jobs will be created in them doing so.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339467#Comment_123339467

China could be leaking US treasury bonds is the conspiracy theory.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339514#Comment_123339514

"The children yearn for the mines."

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/25/business/florida-child-labor-laws/index.html

The gross margin on an iPhone is about 60%. So even a 104% tariff on the 40% it costs to make it would only bring the cost to 81.6% of the current retail price. It's the other brands that will suffer more.

Widdensushi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339514#Comment_123339514

Surely he thinks he is a dictator now, that is a shocking statement for a politician.

SaoPaulo41

Jack Chambers came across as very glum and pessimistic on prime time. No positives at all.

SaoPaulo41

This is what we are dealing with.

The jaw-droppingly stupid comment by Trump's commerce chief Howard Lutnick proves tariffs are doomed https://mol.im/a/14583737 via https://dailym.ai/android

kyote00

musk and Navarro having a spat over on X.

From ABC news, Elon Musk took another shot at Peter Navarro on Tuesday over tariffs, calling President Donald Trump's top adviser on trade and manufacturing a "moron" and "dumber than a sack of bricks."

Sierra Oscar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339550#Comment_123339550

I don't see why we need any conspiracy theory really. What rational investor would buy US debt when they are imploding their economy? It's fairly obvious that confidence in the US treasury is evaporating. It'll bring them a world of pain sooner or later if it continues, including a liquidity crisis. I'm not sure if anyone is ready for US 10 year yields to be north of 6%.

kneemos

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/lithuanians-bid-farewell-4-us-soldiers-died-training-120440899

The Lithuanian President turned up to honour the four American soldiers. Shame their own lad couldn't be arsed.

Grassy Knoll

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339467#Comment_123339467

agree, hard to see how Trump can ‘defy gravity’ in relation to the bond markets. Was it Carville a former Clinton advisor who famously said he would like to be ‘reincarnated as the bond market’ given its ability to drive policy… throw into the mix the fact that China holds huge volumes of US treasuries

Liz Truss for slow learners I think …

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339432#Comment_123339432

Lutnick - the guy who wants to end Ireland's "tax scam". Love to be a fly on the wall of that meeting.

aloyisious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339393#Comment_123339393

Absolutely serious. No one in a position of authority in the US has ever taken Trump for a one on one chat and told him he is not an essential item for the party. He's where he is not because of the Democrats or the voter, he's there because of the GOP. His behaviour is that of a bully. Bullies rely on intimidation to stay in power. Given the right approach from the right person, he will crumble. It only remains for the GOP to impel that person forward with promise to set him up for life, only not as a replacement for Trump in the Oval Office.

aloyisious

One interesting item on the net was a mention of a fake post on X from an unknown account [however that could be done] that supposedly caused an upturn market effect in the US. I don't know why the content is written as present tense.

According to a seven-minute rumour, Donald Trump is considering a 90-day suspension of tariffs for all countries except China. During this time, the US stock market suddenly improved, with stock values increasing by about €2.34 trillion. Soon after, declines occurred again.

On Monday afternoon, Greenwich Mean Time, the US stock market unexpectedly turned positive again, having been dominated by losses for most of the day.

 "The extent of market declines has also been significant across the ocean. The US S&P 500 index lost 2.8 per cent, while the Nasdaq fell by 3.7 per cent. An equally large decline of 3.7 per cent affected the Russell 2000 index, which tracks smaller companies' stock prices.

Suddenly, the situation changed, and instead of being "deep in the red," it turned green. On the social media platform X, a rumour about the alleged suspension of Donald Trump's tariffs for an additional 90 days spread rapidly. This information was published by Reuters, followed by Yahoo Finance and the Economic Times. CNBC also reported on these rumours. Suddenly, major indices on Wall Street changed course and surged upward, according to Reuters.

However, a short time later, when the White House denied that Trump was not going to reverse his decision on the tariffs, the market turned back from green to red.

It seems, as of this time, the starter of the rumour has not been identified.

One thing seems "clear" and that X's policy of not having it's staff properly assess postings on the site can be pointed at on the market rumour front.

Kermit.de.frog

The NYSE futures market suggests it will be another grim day on Wall Street tomorrow and worse if China retaliates. As usual the Chinese govt will more than likely make their announcement just before trading opens for maximum effect.

https://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures

LambshankRedemption

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339633#Comment_123339633

Oh FFS. Who do you think is in greater authority than Trump? He is the leader of the party. You need to cop yourself on.

Kermit.de.frog

..

https://twitter.com/NewsWire_US/status/1909735770748772412

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339122#Comment_123339122

Or they might be in DC for different reasons

circadian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339627#Comment_123339627

I find it curious how fondly Trump speaks of the Irish. He clearly knows that speaking ill of the population in general would cause a hit on his public perception.

Maybe people calling for the government to kowtow to Trump need to realise that while he may put tariffs on our goods, he can't diplomatically **** on us. The reality is he can only turn the screw a little.

Kermit.de.frog

Republicans are turning on Trump's budget.

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/08/trump-house-republican-mutiny-budget-vote-00279964

First they caved on the speaker election. Then last month they fell in line on a budget vote, and again on a divisive government funding bill. But now, it seems, House conservatives are ready to make a stand.

Speaker Mike Johnson is staring down the most significant internal revolt he’s faced all year — one that threatens his own plans to advance the Republican legislative agenda and one that even President Donald Trump has been so far unable to squelch.

Republicans are fighting back saying the deficit will soar and they may not be re-elected.

Trump may think he is unchained in a second term but equally Republicans seem ever more emboldened now to challenge the soon to be lame duck.

Kermit.de.frog

Trump just signed the Executive Order for 104% tariffs to be imposed on China from midnight.

PixelCrafter

Oh well, there goes the stock market …

I'd expect carnage tomorrow, particularly on tech stocks with any manufacturing exposure like Apple etc.

10000maniacs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123338857#Comment_123338857

He is like Putin in that he has been in power too long. Hubris syndrome is a thing that leaves you blind in certain areas, and both Xi and Putin suffer from it.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339704#Comment_123339704

Japan has opened and it's grim right now

https://www.investing.com/indices/japan-ni225

greenfield21

Just on the bond yield conspiracy. This is quite a good article on why yield rose during Covid crisis with heavy selling in equities.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/research-publications/resbull/2021/html/ecb.rb211124~d9e3f578d2.en.html

Banks ability to absorb surging demand for safe assets like government bonds were limited as they were required to comply with the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) . Reserves and Treasuries still counted toward leverage exposure, banks therefore were restricted from buying bonds just when they needed to stabilize markets. Investors rushed to sell bonds and hoard cash, market liquidity dried up.

It appears to be the same happening now, a liquidation event, everything gets sold including bonds to raise cash. As happened in 2020 the Fed will need to provide SLR relief to ease the strain before something breaks.

greenfield21

Trump on pharma giving a speech at the National Republican Congressional Committee dinner in DC…

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1909764103096139890