Baby boom generation starting to retire in or around 2030

BailMeOut

In less than 10 years we will see a dramatic increase in the number of people retiring which is something I do not think is discussed enough. I assume government agencies are aware of this looming burden on society in terms of state and public service pensions as well as a giant number of people starting to get older at the same time and its strain on health care. It's not uniquely an Irish issue as the USA and the UK have similar birth trends from this time. It's also a generation that has accumulated a lot of wealth so will younger people who will be running the country be resentful paying for this generation and will we see calls to tax them (or cut benefits) and get them to help finance their own golden years?

Are we ready as surely this is a crisis that we are walking into which will last at least 20+ years as that generation grows old and eventually dies? Or maybe it will be ok and I should not be worried about this?!

What are your thoughts on this? I think it is a future pending economic and societal problem in the making as we need to start planning for it asap.

_Kaiser_

It's known and recognised in vague terms at Government/policy level yes (hence the slow start of what will be ongoing tax increases in the last budget), but politics in Ireland rarely looks more than maybe a year ahead (if even that), and the last year of term is all about trying to deflect from the failures and distract the electorate with bribes in the previous budget using our own money to do it!

The theory/hope/argument given is that immigration will solve it just as how younger generations have paid for the previous generation in the past. The problem though (as we saw in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis), is that many immigrants will just go home/elsewhere when times get tough. To be fair to them, they came here for economic reasons not because they wanted to be Irish so it's understandable to a point.

There's also the other types of immigrants who are here under false pretenses or who don't have the skills to contribute without extensive (expensive) training and integration efforts first. These also tend to work in the service industry which is usually the first to go when the hard times hit.

The underlying problem is that we've made it incredibly hard for the average/middle class person to put down roots and long term plans. Many of them are paying a fortune in rent with limited opportunities to get out of that, others are stuck at home hoping they'll be able to move into their own home at some point but which is becoming increasingly harder too because of the pressure on supply from the migrant groups above as well as increasing homelessness and low pay workers in our own population. Because the Government and local authorities haven't been building, they're instead buying/renting private sector accommodation for social housing instead.

There's also the issue of our overreliance on FDI service companies and multinationals that are providing things that can be done from pretty much anywhere these days. Tax changes, international pressures from our "friends" in the EU, and growing discontent about this situation in the US (where many of these companies hail from) only add to the inevitable conclusion that when the end of this particular gravy train is reached, it won't be pretty for Ireland!

But back to the politicians who ultimately don't care because by the time they finally leave office they'll probably be millionaires themselves and setup for life with connections, board memberships or EU careers to "get them through it".

It'll be the ordinary Irish citizen who pays the price for this shortsightedness and lack of preparation... But then, hasn't it always been so!

Kermit.de.frog

We need to encourage families and for those families to have more children - that's the reality. We aren't the only ones facing a demographic emergency that will have serious consequences on the living standards for everyone.

When you look at the last 30 to 40 years serious shortsighted mistakes have been made here and elsewhere. "Progressive" causes may have been trendy at the time but a cold examination of the impact that is now coming through is, and was always going to be, less children.

Whether it's women encouraged to focus solely on careers instead of raring children or even abortion and everything in between it all has one outcome that was rarely mentioned when these societal changes occurred.

Then you have the economic factors which are also acting against having a family of 2 or more children or even a family at all. There is an ever increasing number of childless couples.

It all looks grim really without radical changes to quickly encourage at the very least replacement level family sizes.

thegame983

There could be some serious civil strife.

A generation of renters are going to have their taxes increased to pay for the pensions of a generation of homeowners.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122014281#Comment_122014281

the way some go in you would swear only renters pay tax on this country

Mrs OBumble

OP I think your maths is a bit out: baby-boomers are now in their 70s, and already retired.

I'm at the very start of Gen-X, and due to retire in about 10 years.

And yes, the pension deficit is a concern.

riffmongous

Theres a big negative feedback loop in progress here related to house prices, wealth and working young couples having children and there's not going to be any easy way to stop it..

BailMeOut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122014352#Comment_122014352

When I said baby boomers I was wrongly referring to the giant baby boom folks born in late 60s and early 70s. What that generation is officially called I do not know.

lazeedaisy

Boomers: 1946–1964

Gen X: 1965–1976

Millennials: 1977–1995

Gen Z: 1996–2015

lazeedaisy

According to Google 😂🤣

SuperBowserWorld

...

cdeb

I think immigration and increased number of children don't really address the problem properly, especially in a climate crisis. Immigration robs people from other countries and tells them to **** their own pensions issue, and moving people further apart doesn't help increasing carbon levels (it leads to increased air travel, which is problematic). Increasing the birth rate much beyond 2.1 is also unsustainable. Ultimately both solutions involve an ever-increasing population, which is a short-term solution but can't go on forever.

I think the main thing to address this is people need to realise that when pensions came in, if you got to 65 at all, you only had another 5 years or so ahead of you. Yet here we are with expected life spans of 80+ and we still think we can retire at 65? The pensions age has to increase to 70 if not higher - yet when that was mooted in the Dáil, there was serious kickback and a bit of a compromise came in (pensions at 66, but a few quid extra if you hold off until 70), which hasn't really helped much.

We need to step back and acknowledge the bigger picture. We need to keep population stable (for sustainability reasons), and that means there's only whatever - 50% of the population working, 20% studying/in school and 30% retired and claiming the pension. If the maths on that don't work out, then you have to increase the working population and reduce the retired population. Only way of doing that is to increase the pension age.

Unfortunately as a species we're not usually any good at acknowledging how privileged we are with what we have, and accepting that sometimes we need to cut back.

Hungary has a model in place to combat the childbirth issue, zero effort is being made here, just tax more and import more...IVF clinics out the door with desperate people couples straddling 40

Furze99

Those most comfortable having children these days are opposites in ways. You need to be either comfortably upper middle class professional class, financially sound and homeowner etc. Or on the social welfare system, more children there yields more income and moving up public housing lists etc. Both are logical lifestyle choices.

Those in the middle, the majority?, will struggle to pay their way, house themselves and have children.

Who ever thought this is a good idea? But it seems to be baked in now.

Jim2007

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122014352#Comment_122014352

Yep pretty much, they started around 2011 and will be completed around 2029!

Jim2007

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058346676/baby-boom-generation-starting-to-retire-in-or-around-2030

You are about 10 years too late…. And you seem to have missed out on the countless discussion papers and research notes as well come out of Europe, plus the general consensus among EU states to move to the three pillar pension system plus Ireland moving to tale the first step with auto enrollment…..

Oh the concerns relating pension funds massive rebalancing coupled with the corporate bond restructuring has pretty much been completed as well.

Maybe do some actual research….

Get Real

I think Ireland has the opportunity to be ahead on this if it (we, the electorate when those knocks on doors come) really want(s) to be.

Currently, we're actually way ahead. We're still a relatively young population and ratio wise, we've 30 years to go until we get to the type of working person/OAP ratio that Spain and France have right now.

Also, France spends about 15% of it's GDP on pension current expenditure. We spend 4.2%

I think the auto-enrollment is a good step towards building something long term for ourselves. I think we can further work on that by increasing incentives and pushing more AVC take-up. Also, perhaps a state scheme for everyone, private and public sector, that you can pay extra into.

I find it funny politicians and so on using the "we'll need to look at pensions in future" and so on when we have the ability to change that now.

They're using figures for France and Spain yet we won't reach those til 2050. Which is why I'm surprised they don't put more effort into doing something NOW.

Not to say we should be complacent on the issue. But... we are actually very fortunate at the moment. We're way behind where other EU countries are in terms of working person to oap ratio and our spend on pensions as a proportion of gdp.

So if we implemented something properly now along with an awareness campaign, it could take the sting out massively.

Dependency ratio figures:

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/edn-20210930-1

TheIrishGrover

How wonderful it is to be classified as a "burden on society" after, so far, having worked and paid taxes for 25 years. Almost 20 at higher rate of tax and another 13 or so left on high rate of tax. After paying into a personal pension so far for over 25 years and will continue again to pay into pension.

Wonderful. Thank you for your compassion

ancapailldorcha

It's the logical consequence of turning former basics such as homes and secure jobs into luxuries only for the well off. The question isn't why people aren't having children, it's why anyone bothers with it at all.

Hamachi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122015685#Comment_122015685

Because many of us find somebody who we love and with whom we want to start a family. Because many of us value family life and the multiplicity of ways in which our lives have been enriched, albeit not financially, by our children. Just small details like that really..

BailMeOut

I am the OP and never said this generation would be a burden. I asked if the future younger generation in years to come might think this as they are then ones who would be paying for these pensions and elderly care.

scottser

I'll be retiring in about 10 years time. Did my LC in 1987. Unemployment was savage back then and we were told that if you're not in a permanent job by the time you were 20, you were fucked. Thats of course if AIDS or a nuclear strike didn't **** you first.

After a lifetime paying tax, I'm going to live till I'm a hundred, so **** all yall gen z, non-tax paying, multinational cuntz. Suck it up and pay my old grumpy ass!

monkeybutter

This is such a dumb thread, the baby boom in Ireland was 1980

There are more 45 year old than anyone else

Then you have people who think the world only exists in the states

Baby boomers gen x mean nowt here

Clo-Clo

They certainly have a mass media push at the moment on investing in pensions, been going on a few years but really noticeable now, maybe I am getting to that age that the algrothiums want to hit but any social media platform I seem to get ads

nachouser

wtf?

"Whether it's women encouraged to focus solely on careers instead of raring children or even abortion and everything in between it all has one outcome that was rarely mentioned when these societal changes occurred."

TheIrishGrover

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122015737#Comment_122015737

You know what, I work 50+ hours a week. Have been paying taxes since I was 20. Was unemployed for a year. Got minimal dole because I received redundancy. Spent it on upskilling to get back into the workforce ASAP. By the time I retire I will have paid taxes for 45 years. Again, by the time I retire, paid personal/company pension for 35 years with AVCs for about 20.

I paid for my pension!!!

Sunny Disposition

Thankfully we have a history of far-seeing ministers for Health who have made sure our increasing pool of older people will be very well cared for each winter as illnesses inevitably strike.

In UHL you are quite likely to get a bed within a week at many times of the year. That’s all because of the genius move to close down THREE a&e units in the region 15 years ago. What a country.

cdeb

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122016138#Comment_122016138

"I paid for my pension" - your own personal one? Maybe so. And that's fine. Everyone should do so. Statutory pensions coming down the line sound like a good thing

Your State pension? No - you paid for pensioners' pensions. Pensions are a pyramid scheme.

This sort of self-entitled whining without addressing the basic maths behind pensions (have your PRSI contributions even matched what you can expect to draw down from the State over retirement? And cover the cost of administering the system in general?) is what has societies in trouble.

TheIrishGrover

Self entitled whining… burden on society…

machiavellianme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122015755#Comment_122015755

If the baby boom was 1980, then surely there'd be more 43/44 year olds than anything else?

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122017270#Comment_122017270

Baby boomers are those born between 1946-1964.

machiavellianme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122017285#Comment_122017285

So what? Your response refers to a generation, the post I was responding to references a particular year as being a boom. But their maths for determining the ages of people in that year let's their argument down.

volchitsa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122014352#Comment_122014352

That's because the term baby boomers is meaningless in Ireland so of course it doesn't correspond to anything real. I can't understand why people even do that. Seems like they want to create identity groups to pit against each other or something.

There were no masses of conscripted soldiers coming back after the war to make all these babies, the economy in Ireland had no post war boom, and in fact remained in the doldrums until the mid eighties. It's the opposite really: emigration was significant among Irish people the same age as baby boomers in the US and UK, because their economies were doing well.

The nearest Irish equivalent to the privileged baby boomers is probably those who profited from the (rather short lived) Celtic tiger days. They're a LOT younger.

ongarite

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122017285#Comment_122017285

True but the term is an American construct & has meaning for it's population curve & opportunity that this cohort had with "booming" economy, cheap housing & well paid white collar jobs.

The point monkeybutter makes, which I agree with, is that it has no relevance in Ireland.

Irish "boomers" you could argue we're born 1970-79 with Celtic Tiger kicking into gear when they left school, university; together with cheap housing & falling interest rates.

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122015680#Comment_122015680

Ah to be young again 😀

And you can now see why a certain sector of society are a tad uncomfortable with the prospect of legally assisted dying 🤪

cdeb

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122017220#Comment_122017220

Have you a point? I may have missed it.

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122017285#Comment_122017285

These generation labels did not exist 15/20 years ago. I think they are a divide and conquer concoction to attack social cohesion.
I might have heard of Generation X but not in the context it’s used today. But definitely never heard of baby boomer or millennial or silent generation. It’s all bullshit to pit people against each other.
The wealthiest families I know are the ones who work together and pull together inter generationally.

volchitsa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122015685#Comment_122015685

I'd really like to know when "homes and secure jobs" were a basic that everyone had? Maybe for a period of about 5 years that I missed out on because I had already left the country by then - for economic reasons.

And I'm still working, and will be retiring at about 2030, so I'm right in the target group the OP thinks are too entitled. Doesn't feel entitled from where I'm sitting.

TheIrishGrover

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122017531#Comment_122017531

Oh be quiet you, you self-entitled burden on society. 😀

Owning you own home was NEVER a basic

Secure job was NEVER a basic.

I worked since 16. From 22 to 27 I shared a house with three others. Had my first holiday abroad at 28 and scrimped and saved (and, I will admit, there was a certain amount of luck/good timing) to buy my house. Next 5 years also sharing my house with two others.

It was most certainly not considered a basic assumption

I have have had 4 jobs and do not assume that my current job cannot go elsewhere at some stage (two of my previous jobs moved abroad)

(And yes, I do realise that sounded like that Monty Python sketch).

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122017531#Comment_122017531

I'd like to know why you think that rents haven't skyrocketed, wages haven't stagnated, and that job security hasn't decreased.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122017501#Comment_122017501

They're not. They're perfectly legitimate.

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122017501#Comment_122017501

yes they did- I learned these terms in the 1980s- subsequent generations have been added since

volchitsa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122017698#Comment_122017698

Wow. Did I say any of that?

Why no. No I didn’t.

I said a different thing.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122017776#Comment_122017776

And I never said that everyone in the boomer demographic had a house and a secure job.

volchitsa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122017778#Comment_122017778

turning former basics such as homes and secure jobs into luxuries

You said they were “former basics”. What do you understand by that, if not that everyone could expect to have ready access to them?

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122017784#Comment_122017784

I'm not interested in silly games. Let's just leave it.

volchitsa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122017805#Comment_122017805

If you want, but my point was not a "silly game", even if yours was.

My very serious point is that it's inappropriate and socially divisive to try to apply a US understanding of the world to other countries, specifically Ireland. We didn't have a baby boom after the war, and young adults in the 60s, 70s and 80s never had an easy time regarding housing or jobs - and those few who may have done were helped by the fact that mass emigration took a lot of pressure off the market for those who were able to stay.

So this "Oh you baby boomers had it so easy compared to us" sh1te is not only divisive, it's factually incorrect.

I graduated in the first year that the number of people arriving in the country finally overtook the number emigrating. I was one of those who left. If the same numbers were emigrating today, housing would no doubt be a lot more affordable. I don't think that makes "housing and stable jobs were a basic back then" a fair conclusion.

That's all I had to say about it, so I'm happy to leave it at that - but not to pretend that I was playing a silly game.

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122015755#Comment_122015755

Actually nope. Though the terms are certainly American, the Irish population growth echoed the US in rapidly climbing Post WW2. Peaking in 1965(the US peaked circa 1960) and falling off cliff after that(with a leveling off circa 1990-2010). The birthrate in 1980 was very much on the downward slope. The US on the other hand had a more level curve. IE more Gen X etc were born as a percentage of population.

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122017772#Comment_122017772

not in Irish media. Not using those de lineations. There was generational differences mostly defined by those who lived through and fought in the war of independence civil war etc and those that came after who came of age in the 60’s/70’s. And then the current post Catholic generation. Boomers , millennials etc are false American media constructs in the Irish context. Invented for the purpose of antagonism over there and exported to here.

volchitsa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122017956#Comment_122017956

That's a single factor, fertility, which dropped in the 70s as contraception became available in Ireland.

That graph doesn't say anything about numbers of adults looking for work and housing - because Ireland, unlike America, had high levels of emigration right up to the 80s. The baby boomer generation was a different thing entirely, about the economy as much as about birth levels.

Even when you compare that single criterion, they're not that similar:

Contraception happened later in Ireland and had an even bigger effect. Related to the fact that the economy was weaker and people were less sure of being able to look after their children no doubt.

Galwayguy35

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122014424#Comment_122014424

Learn something new every day it seems.

Never realised I was a Gen X man.