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February 2024 Boards weather forecast contest

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,328 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After first week ...

    IMT _ 8.2 C (3.0 above normal)

    MAX _ 14.7

    MIN _ -1.0

    PRC _ 83% of normal

    SUN _ 39.3% of normal

    Max 14th Newport __ GFS shows 10 C for this



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,879 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Rain gone above normal after today I'd imagine. Sun has taken a holiday since January. In Sligo I'd say wev only had 7 or 8 hours since January and a full 0 today on day 8.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,328 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I may be holding a big hammer for PRC but so far projections fall between the wide goalposts of my forecast (184%) and second highest 110% (dasa29). The midpoint of that large gap is 147%. If that were the outcome, raw scores would all be 3 or less. I may need to ask around how to score this if we end up in that zone, probably some kind of cap on top progression level of 10/15 would be fair to everyone. The hammer only falls between 177 and 191, otherwise it's just the standard boost.



  • Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Looks like we could all be in trouble for IMT and MIN as well.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,879 ✭✭✭pauldry


    14c on the 14th is not out of the question. A low scoring month looks likely for most.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    It's a leap year so the agony will be dragged out longer 😀



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,879 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Aha! That's why MT went for 184percent rain. There's a flood coming Feb 29th!!



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,790 ✭✭✭appledrop


    I think most of us did OK last month, so this month will be pay back with nil points😁



  • Registered Users Posts: 911 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Me looking at MTC's precip forecast on February 1st and then seeing the precip accumulation charts for the next two weeks today


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Moore Park -2.2 yesterday.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Newport hovering around 11.

    Another high score for MT.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,879 ✭✭✭pauldry


    11.3c I think was max from WOW or 11.4c



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,328 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Scoring for Bonus Max 14th Newport (11.4 C)

    and f.y.i., scoring for MIN if result is -3.2 or above (-3.5 is our high forecast; full minimum progression would apply at an outcome of -3.2 or higher as top raw score will be less than 18. If result is 3.3 to 3.7, we get a hammer from Tazio (reduced boosts), but it won't be severe because of the spread of forecasts vs min progression. If we see a reading below -3.7 this discussion is irrelevant, scoring will probably go closer to raw scores.

    I have left in the other categories but no scoring suggestions yet. At the rate things are going, could require minimum progression on PRC and once again a hammer situation would only apply if outcome is 177-191 (to get a raw score of 13-15).


    FORECASTER _____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _score_PRC _ SUN ___ Max 14th Newport

    __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ error ___ score

    M.T. Cranium ______________7.1 _ 16.3 _ -4.7 _ 16 _ 184 _ 105 ___ 10.8 ____-0.6 ____ 9

    Adam240610 ______________7.0 _ 16.8 _ -6.5 _ 07 _ 090 _ 090 ___ 10.2 ____-1.2 ____ 8

    Gonzo ___________________ 6.8 _ 16.4 _ -4.2 _ 19 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 11.3 ____-0.1 ___ 10

    Dacogawa_________________6.6 _ 15.4 _ -5.5 _ 10 _ 086 _ 105 ___ 10.0 ____-1.4 ____ 7

    Pauldry __________________ 6.5 _ 16.5 _ -5.5 _ 10 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 9.5 ____-1.9 ____ 6

    MrSkinner ________________ 6.5 _ 15.7 _ -4.3 _ 18 _ 099 _ 111 ___ 11.0 ____-0.4 ___ 10

    Tae laidir _________________ 6.4 _ 15.8 _ -6.8 _ 06 _ 088 _ 114 ____ 8.3 ____-3.1 ____ 4

    Artane2002 _______________6.3 _ 16.4 _ -5.2 _ 13 _ 080 _ 100 ____ 4.6 ____-6.8 ____ 2

    Appledrop ________________ 6.2 _ 16.1 _ -5.2 _ 13 _ 085 _ 110 ____ 9.8 ____-1.6 ____ 7

    Tazio ____________________ 6.2 _ 16.0 _ -3.5 _ 20 _ 080 _ 117 ___ 10.5 ____-0.9 ____ 9

    WolfeEire _________________6.1 _ 16.4 _ -5.6 _ 09 _ 077 _ 115 ____ 7.2 ____-4.2 ____ 3

    Kindred Spirit _____________ 6.0 _ 16.6 _ -4.6 _ 17 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 10.0 ____-1.4 ____ 7

    ___ Con Sensus ___________ 5.9 _ 16.3 _ -5.5 _ 10 _ 086 _ 110 ___ 10.0 ____-1.4 ____ 7

    Sunflower3 _______________ 5.9 _ 16.8 _ -7.1 _ 04 _ 085 _ 095 ___ 11.5 ____+0.1 ___ 10

    Mr stonewall ______________ 5.9 _ 14.9 _ -6.5 _ 07 _ 083 _ 115 ___ 12.3 ____+0.9 ____ 9

    Rameire ________________ 5.8 _ 16.9 _ -7.0 _ 05 _ 088 _ 092 ___ 10.5 ____-0.9 ____ 9

    johnmac _________________ 5.8 _ 16.5 _ -4.7 _ 16 _ 086 _ 107 ____ 9.6 ____-1.8 ____ 6

    waterways ________________5.8 _ 16.2 _ -5.4 _ 11 _ 104 _ 098 ____ 8.9 ____-2.5 ____ 5

    DOCARCH ________________ 5.7 _ 17.2 _ -4.7 _ 16 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 11.2 ____-0.2 ___ 10

    Bsal______________________5.7 _ 17.0 _ -5.5 _ 10 _ 080 _ 101 ____ 9.0 ____-2.4 ____ 5

    Dasa29 __________________ 5.5 _ 17.5 _ -5.0 _ 14 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 10.5 ____-0.9 ____ 9

    sryanbruen _______________ 5.5 _ 16.2 _ -6.8 _ 06 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 3.9 ____-7.5 ____ 1

    ___ NormaL ______________ 5.3 _ 15.8 _ -6.5 _ 07 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 10.2 ____-1.2 ____ 8

    Esposito __________________5.2 _ 15.9 _ -8.2 _ 04 _ 085 _ 110 ____ 4.2 ____-7.2 ____ 2

    Joe Public ________________ 5.1 _ 16.1 _ -8.7 _ 03 _ 095 _ 105 ____ 4.1 ____-7.3 ____ 2

    Jpmarn __________________ 5.1 _ 15.3 _ -6.8 _ 07 _ 085 _ 120 ____ 6.8 ____-4.6 ____ 3

    Cornerstonelad ____________ 4.9 _ 15.9 _ -6.4 _ 09 _ 080 _ 129 ____ 3.6 ____-7.8 ____ 1

    ___________________________________

    Only two forecasts were above the outcome, and not by very much. Back later with a week two update.



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,705 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    11.4c max. confirmed for Newport yesterday.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,328 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks ...

    IMT _ 7.3 C (2.0 above normal) second week average 6.4 C (1.0 above).

    MAX _ 14.7

    MIN _ -2.2

    PRC _ 142% of normal, second week wet (201%).

    SUN _ 66.5% of normal, second week near average (93.7%).

    Max 14th Newport __ 11.4 C __ scored in a separate post above

    Quite a variety on current guidance, IMT will probably rise to 8 or above before dropping back; PRC does look fairly solid but I suspect it will end up in a big gap between 110 and 184. SUN is bound to improve but will be struggling to get past 80%.

    In scoring post for bonus, I also ran minimum progression on MIN but we may not need it, if it drops below -4.5 we probably won't.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,328 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After three weeks ...

    IMT _ 8.2 C (2.8 above normal) third week average a very high 10.1 C (4.5 above).

    MAX _ 14.7

    MIN _ -2.2

    PRC _ 140% of normal, third week 138%.

    SUN _ 75% of normal, third week est 90% (Cork data not available, but est 100%).

    Max 14th Newport __ 11.4 C __ scored in a separate post earlier

    Colder on current guidance, IMT will probably drop to around 7.2 by end of Feb, PRC still looks like it will end up in a big gap between forecasts of 110 and 184 per cent, it could fall back a bit after today keeps it close to 140%. SUN is bound to improve and will eventually get past 80%.

    In scoring post for bonus, I also ran minimum progression on MIN but we may not need it, if it drops below -4.5 we probably won't. Not likely to do so but Tuesday 27 Feb was looking frosty on guidance; MAX is surprisingly low considering the current IMT, but we're probably done now.

    Over in Britain the CET was last reported at 8.7 C and the record is 7.9 (way back in 1779), also the past week's average of 10.7 there is an all-time high value for February.

    I suppose with it being a leap year I can post a fourth week report a day before it's all done.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,328 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Counting today's reported rainfalls the PRC will end up just about in the centre of the large gap in forecasts (centre being 147%), possibly a bit lower (I have it at 132% now). I don't see any chance of it getting close to 184% but in any case, will score from minimum progression using 13/15 as top score as a slight nod to our generally inaccurate group performance. The IMT will also need to be scored from minimum progression as it will be 7.6 or thereabouts (it was 7.66 after 27 days, would likely be 7.70 after 28 and could drop a bit after 29th). In that case I will start from 24/25 and to be fair to all I will just score the forecasts as if 7.2 was the outcome, that will eliminate any odd effects of the rank ordering. A fourth week report will happen tomorrow and I may also post preliminary scoring then because we won't get a monthly summary until 4th (assuming it's not a bank holiday on 4th).



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,328 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks ...

    IMT _ 7.7 C (2.5 above normal) fourth week average 6.0 C (0.1 above). Likely 7.6 finish.

    MAX _ 14.7

    MIN _ -2.2

    PRC _ 142% of normal, fourth week 126%. (after today likely 140%)

    SUN _ 85% of normal, fourth week 113%

    Max 14th Newport __ 11.4 C __ scored in a separate post earlier



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,328 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    IMT 7.6 and PRC 142% calculated, SUN in 85-90 range, will see MS on 4 Mar to verify actuals.

    Early unofficial scoring later today if I can get to it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Remarkably poor forecasting this month.

    IMT. 0 above, 25 below actual.

    MAX. 25 above, 0 below actual.

    MIN. 0 above, 25 below actual.

    PRC. 1 (MTC) above, 24 below.

    SUN. (85-90), say 88, 25 above, 0 below.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,328 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Scoring estimates for February 2024

    FORECASTER _____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _score_PRC _ SUN ___ Max 14th Newport

    __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __7.6__14 .7__-2.2 __ __ _142 _ 090 __ _11.4_ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ TOTAL

    M.T. Cranium ______________24 _ 08 _ 16 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 9 _____ 74

    Adam240610 ______________23 _ 04 _ 07 _ 06 _ 10 ___ 8 _____ 58

    Gonzo ___________________ 21 _ 07 _ 19 _ 08 _ 06 ___10 _____ 71

    Dacogawa_________________19 _ 16 _ 10 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 7 _____ 64

    Pauldry __________________ 18 _ 06 _ 10 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 6 _____ 52

    MrSkinner ________________ 18 _ 15 _ 18 _ 09 _ 06 ___10 _____ 76

    Tae laidir _________________ 17 _ 13 _ 06 _ 06 _ 05 ___ 4 _____ 51

    Artane2002 _______________ 16 _ 07 _ 13 _ 02 _ 08 ___ 2 _____ 48

    Appledrop ________________ 15 _ 10 _ 13 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 7 _____ 56

    Tazio ____________________ 15 _ 11 _ 20 _ 02 _ 05 ___ 9 _____ 62

    WolfeEire _________________14 _ 07 _ 09 _ 01 _ 05 ___ 3 _____ 39

    Kindred Spirit _____________ 13 _ 05 _ 17 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 7 _____ 53

    ___ Con Sensus ___________ 12 _ 08 _ 10 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 7 _____ 48

    Sunflower3 _______________ 12 _ 04 _ 04 _ 05 _ 09 ___10 _____ 44

    Mr stonewall ______________ 12 _ 20 _ 07 _ 04 _ 05 ___ 9 _____ 57

    Rameire ________________ 11 _ 02 _ 05 _ 06 _ 10 ___ 9 _____ 43

    johnmac _________________ 11 _ 06 _ 16 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 6 _____ 51

    waterways ________________11 _ 09 _ 11 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 5 _____ 55

    DOCARCH ________________ 10 _ 01 _ 16 _ 08 _ 06___10 _____ 51

    Bsal______________________10 _ 02 _ 10 _ 03 _ 08 ___ 5 _____ 38

    Dasa29 __________________ 08 _ 00 _ 14 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 9 _____ 50

    sryanbruen _______________ 08 _ 09 _ 06 _ 06 _ 08 ___ 1 _____ 38

    ___ NormaL ______________ 06 _ 13 _ 07 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 8 _____ 52

    Esposito __________________05 _ 12 _ 04 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 2 _____ 34

    Joe Public ________________ 04 _ 10 _ 03 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 2 _____ 34

    Jpmarn __________________ 04 _ 17 _ 07 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 3 _____ 40

    Cornerstonelad ____________ 02 _ 12 _ 09 _ 03 _ 02 ___ 1 _____ 29

    ___________________________________

    minimum progression:

    IMT _ scored from 7.2 to maintain differentials (everyone got 4 extra points, except Cornerstonelad with raw score -2)

    MAX _ classic hammer situation, mr stonewall (14.9) 18 goes to 20, rest of progression get mid-point of progression value and raw score

    MIN _ classic minimum progression by rank order (nobody close to hammer)

    PRC _ scored from 116 to give best forecasts (110) 13 of 15, mtc score at same error value (184-142=42, 142-42= 100).

    SUN _ scoring does not need boost but scored from 90 no matter what outcome is (unless 91+ would then need revisions)

    BONUS _ always scored from rank order anyway.

    Scores will be placed in rank order when final values are established on 4th ... also annual scoring and four seasons updates will follow.

    I will do a fairness check to see if raw scores to adjusted scores contain any irregular jogs. Everyone has added 20-30 to their raw scores at least.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,328 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    All the rain that fell on 1st would have been good for my 184% forecast (I worked out it would have taken PRC to 165%). ... Anyway, following you will find updated Feb scoring and annual scoring, since it's only two months, I combined the usual annual update with category scoring.

    Four seasons report is also available (it will add on DEC scores) ...

    ... posting before confirming scores below, will report in this space if any changes were made after about 1200 today.

    ... after review of data in MS, all data are as estimated, no edits required ...


    Updated February 2024 scoring


    FORECASTER _____________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_Max 14th Newport

    __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __7.6_14.7_-2.2_142_090__11.4_ __TOTAL

    MrSkinner ________________ 18 _ 15 _ 18 _ 09 _ 06 ___10 _____76

    M.T. Cranium ______________24 _ 08 _ 16 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 9 _____ 74

    Gonzo ___________________ 21 _ 07 _ 19 _ 08 _ 06 ___10 _____71

    Dacogawa_________________19 _ 16 _ 10 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 7 _____ 64

    Tazio ____________________ 15 _ 11 _ 20 _ 02 _ 05 ___ 9 _____ 62

    Adam240610 ______________23 _ 04 _ 07 _ 06 _ 10 ___ 8 _____ 58

    Mr stonewall ______________ 12 _ 20 _ 07 _ 04 _ 05 ___ 9 _____ 57

    Appledrop ________________ 15 _ 10 _ 13 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 7 _____ 56

    waterways ________________11 _ 09 _ 11 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 5 _____ 55

    Kindred Spirit _____________ 13 _ 05 _ 17 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 7 _____ 53

    Pauldry __________________ 18 _ 06 _ 10 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 6 _____ 52

    ___ NormaL ______________ 06 _ 13 _ 07 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 8 _____ 52

    Tae laidir _________________ 17 _ 13 _ 06 _ 06 _ 05 ___ 4 _____51

    johnmac _________________ 11 _ 06 _ 16 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 6 _____ 51

    DOCARCH ________________ 10 _ 01 _ 16 _ 08 _ 06___10 _____ 51

    Dasa29 __________________ 08 _ 00 _ 14 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 9 _____ 50

    Artane2002 _______________16 _ 07 _ 13 _ 02 _ 08 ___ 2 _____ 48


    ___ Con Sensus ___________ 12 _ 08 _ 10 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 7 _____ 48


    Sunflower3 _______________ 12 _ 04 _ 04 _ 05 _ 09 ___10 _____44

    Rameire ________________ 11 _ 02 _ 05 _ 06 _ 10 ___ 9 _____ 43

    Jpmarn __________________ 04 _ 17 _ 07 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 3 _____ 40

    WolfeEire _________________14 _ 07 _ 09 _ 01 _ 05 ___ 3 _____ 39

    Bsal______________________10 _ 02 _ 10 _ 03 _ 08 ___ 5 _____38

    sryanbruen _______________ 08 _ 09 _ 06 _ 06 _ 08 ___ 1 _____ 38

    Esposito __________________05 _ 12 _ 04 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 2 _____ 34

    Joe Public ________________ 04 _ 10 _ 03 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 2 _____ 34

    Cornerstonelad ____________ 02 _ 12 _ 09 _ 03 _ 02 ___ 1 _____ 29

    ___________________________________


    Updated Annual and Category scoring


    Rank _FORECASTER _______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS _ TOTALS (J, F) __ Annual TOTAL

    __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ ___ ___ ___ ____ ____ ____ ___ ___ __ JAN ___FEB ____2024 so far

    ........... max possible scores .. 50 _ 40 _ 40 _ 30 _ 20 ___ 20 _____100___100 ____200

    _01 __Gonzo _____________ 44 _ 20 _ 32 _ 21 _ 12 ___ 18 _____ 76 ___ 71 ____ 147

    _02 __MrSkinner __________ 39 _ 16 _ 32 _ 24 _ 13 ___ 16 _____ 64 ___ 76 ____ 140

    t03 __Adam240610 ________ 46 _ 10 _ 25 _ 18 _ 18 ___ 16 _____ 75 ___ 58 ____ 133

    t03 __Dacogawa ___________38 _ 31 _ 14 _ 19 _ 15 ___ 16 _____ 69 ___ 64 ____ 133

    _05 __M.T. Cranium ________46 _ 14 _ 17 _ 17 _ 16 ___ 19 _____ 55 ___ 74 ____ 129

    _06 __Appledrop __________ 37 _ 21 _ 23 _ 16 _ 15 ___ 16 _____ 72 ___ 56 ____ 128

    t07 __sryanbruen __________32 _ 25 _ 26 _ 21 _ 15 ___ 08 _____ 89 ___ 38 ____ 127

    t07 __Pauldry _____________39 _ 17 _ 22 _ 19 _ 14 ___ 16 _____ 75 ___ 52 ____ 127

    8.5 _____ NormaL _________27 _ 32 _ 21 _ 20 _ 12 ___ 14 _____ 74 ___ 52 ____ 126

    _09 __Artane2002 _________34 _ 26 _ 29 _ 15 _ 14 ___ 07 _____ 77 ___ 48 ____ 125

    _10 __Mr stonewall ________ 36 _ 23 _ 20 _ 16 _ 12 ___ 16 _____ 66 ___ 57 ____ 123


    10.75__ Con Sensus ________34 _ 14 _ 26 _ 19 _ 12 ___ 15 _____ 72 ___ 48 ____ 120


    t11 __Tazio _______________32 _ 25 _ 21 _ 17 _ 11 ___ 13 _____ 57 ___ 62 ____ 119

    t11 __waterways __________ 33 _ 16 _ 18 _ 26 _ 12 ___ 14 _____ 64 ___ 55 ____ 119

    t13 __Jpmarn _____________17 _ 33 _ 27 _ 18 _ 10 ___ 13 _____ 78 ___ 40 ____ 118

    t13 __john mac ___________ 30 _ 16 _ 32 _ 16 _ 12 ___ 12 _____ 67 ___ 51 ____ 118

    t13 __Kindred Spirit ________32 _ 05 _ 37 _ 17 _ 10 ___ 17 _____ 65 ___ 53 ____ 118

    _16 __Tae laidir ___________ 33 _ 20 _ 21 _ 19 _ 11 ___ 12 _____ 65 ___ 51 ____ 116

    _17 __Wolfeire ____________38 _ 09 _ 25 _ 13 _ 12 ___ 10 _____ 68 ___ 39 ____ 107

    _18 __Esposito ____________28 _ 13 _ 21 _ 18 _ 15 ___ 10 _____ 71 ___ 34 ____ 105

    _19 __DOCARCH __________ 30 _ 05 _ 18 _ 21 _ 11 ___ 15 _____ 49 ___ 51 ____ 100

    _20 __Bsal _______________ 34 _ 03 _ 25 _ 09 _ 13 ___ 13 _____ 59 ___ 38 ____ 097

    _21 __Sunflower3 __________30 _ 12 _ 06 _ 20 _ 12 ___ 16 _____ 52 ___ 44 ____ 096

    _22 __Rameire ___________ 29 _ 08 _ 07 _ 20 _ 16 ___ 13 _____ 50 ___ 43 ____ 093

    _23 __Dasa29 _____________25 _ 01 _ 16 _ 20 _ 11 ___ 18 _____ 41 ___ 50 ____ 091

    _24 __Joe Public ___________28 _ 14 _ 10 _ 15 _ 17 ___ 06 _____ 56 ___ 34 ____ 090

    _25 __Cornerstonelad _______25 _ 12 _ 24 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 08 _____ 59 ___ 29 ____ 088

    _26 __200motels __________ 23 _ 06 _ 11 _ 14 _ 06 ___ 06 _____ 66 ___ --- ____ 066

    _27 __SleetandSnow _______ 21 _ 08 _ 02 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 06 _____ 56 ___ --- ____ 056

    _28 __Bazlers _____________09 _ 00 _ 00 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 04 _____ 33 ___ --- ____ 033

    _29 __BLIZZARD7 _________ 03 _ 00 _ 00 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 05 _____ 28 ___ --- _ 028-2 026

    ________________

    Note: the only late penalty so far is in the last scoring row above.

    In category scoring, high score is bold, second is bold italic, and third is plain italic font.

    IMT __ two forecaster scores tied for first, no second place, one third.

    MAX __ one forecaster score in each position, but NormaL would be second also.

    MIN __ one forecaster score in first, three tied for second, no third is awarded.

    PRC __ one forecaster in first and also second, three tied for third.

    SUN __ one forecaster in first and also second, two are tied for third.

    bonus _one forecaster score in first, two tied for second, no third is awarded.


    ======================================


    Four Seasons contest __ Winter 2023-2024 segment


    We will go with a slightly different format this year, seasonal winners will get 12 points, second to tenth will get 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 points, 11-20 will also get 2 points as will any forecaster with a total score of 150+ ... and all who participate (2/3 or 3/3) will get one point if not otherwise qualified. Con Sensus and NormaL will receive points but those will not affect contest points.


    FORECASTER ___________ DEC __ JAN __ FEB ___ TOTAL _____ Points

    Gonzo _________________ 65 ___ 76 ___ 71 ____ 212 _______ 12

    MrSkinner ______________ 70 ___ 64 ___ 76 ____ 210 _______ 10

    Tae laidir _______________ 90 ___ 65 ___ 51 ____ 206 _______ 09

    Artane2002 _____________73 ___ 77 ___ 48 ____ 198 _______ 08

    Kindred Spirit ___________ 77 ___ 65 ___ 53 ____ 195 _______ 07

    john mac _______________75 ___ 67 ___ 51 ____ 193 _______ 06 (tied)

    sryanbruen _____________ 66 ___ 89 ___ 38 ____ 193 _______ 06 (tied)


    ___ Con Sensus _________ 71 ___ 72 ___ 48 ____ 191 _______ 04.5

    ___ NormaL ___________64 ___ 74 ___ 52 ____ 190 _______ 04.3


    Dacogawa ______________ 56 ___ 69 ___ 64 ____ 189 _______ 04

    Adam240610 ____________53 ___ 75 ___ 58 ____ 186 _______ 03

    esposito ________________80 ___ 71 ___ 34 ____ 185 _______ 02

    Pauldry ________________ 57 ___ 75 ___ 52 ____ 184 _______ 02

    M.T. Cranium ____________48 ___ 55 ___ 74 ____ 177 _______ 02

    Appledrop ______________ 48 ___ 72 ___ 56 ____ 176 _______ 02

    Mr stonewall ____________ 53 ___ 66 ___ 57 ____ 176 _______ 02

    Sunflower3 _____________ 75 ___ 52 ___ 44 ____ 171 _______ 02

    Bsal ___________________74 ___ 59 ___ 38 ____ 171 _______ 02

    Jpmarn _______________47 ___ 78 ___ 40 ____ 165 _______ 02

    Cornerstonelad __________ 73 ___ 59 ___ 29 ____ 161 _______ 02

    Tazio __________________ 35 ___ 57 ___ 62 ____ 154 _______ 02

    waterways ______________35 ___ 64 ___ 55 ____ 154 _______ 02

    Rameire ________________60 ___ 50 ___ 43 ____ 153 _______ 02

    DOCARCH ______________ 52 ___ 49 ___ 51 ____ 152 _______ 02

    Wolfeire ________________45 ___ 68 ___ 39 ____ 152 _______ 02

    Dasa29 ________________ 54 ___ 41 ___ 50 ____ 145 _______ 01

    200motels ______________74 ___ 66 ___ --- ____ 140 _______ 01

    Joe Public _______________49 ___ 56 ___ 34 ____ 139 _______ 01

    SleetAndSnow ___________56 ___ 56 ___ --- ____ 112 _______ 01

    omicron ________________70 ___ --- ___ --- ____ 070 _______ ---

    Bazlers _________________28 ___ 33 ___ --- ____ 061 _______ 01

    sdanseo ________________ 47 ___ --- ___ --- ____ 047 _______ ---

    BLIZZARD7 _____________ 19 ___ 26 ___ --- ____ 045 _______ 01



    =======================

    Post edited by M.T. Cranium on


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,328 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Congrats to Gonzo and MrSkinner, one-two in annual and four seasons, MrSkinner also tops for February.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,475 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    February 24 was a very tricky month to forecast. Despite long term forecasts of exceptional cold and widespread snow it has turned out much milder than normal. It was in contrast to January when the mean temperature was somewhat below normal. No extreme Max or Min. Much wetter and duller than expected.



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