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February 2024 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 29-01-2024 11:01pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 14,227 ✭✭✭✭


    1. Predict the "IMT" or Irish Mean Temperature which is the average for night and day at these five locations: Casement, Mullingar, Claremorris, Oak Park, and Shannon. (In February the normal IMT is 5.3 C). That is worth a maximum of 25 points. You lose one point per 0.1 deg error.
    2. Predict the MAX which is the highest reading at any of the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website. Worth 20 points, same error.
    3. Predict the MIN, lowest reading, otherwise same idea. Worth 20 points, same error as the first two.
    4. Predict the PRC which is the rainfall plus liquid equivalent of any other types of precipitation, as a percentage of normal for the average at eleven locations in Ireland. Those are the five listed in 1 above, plus Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle (in Wexford), Cork, and Valentia. (worth 15 points, you lose one point for each 3% error).
    5. Predict the SUN, hours of sunshine also as a percentage of normal, from stats gathered at six locations around Ireland (Casement, Dublin, Cork, Valentia, Shannon, Belmullet). The average duration of sunshine in February is about 2.4 hours a day, so if you think we might average 3.0 hours, predict 125% (etc). Worth 10 points and the score is reduced for each multiple of 5% error.
    6. BONUS for February __ Predict the maximum temperature on 14th Feb at Newport (10 points, scores are always by rank order regardless of whether the errors are big or small)

    Deadline as always 0300h of 1st Feb, late penalties 1 point per 4 ours to 1500h 2nd and 1 point per our afterwards.

    Will post forecasts for myself and NormaL in next two days; Newport's average ax would be around 10 C by 14t .



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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 694 ✭✭✭Tazio


    Tazio_____________6.2 _ 16.0 _ -3.5 _ 80 _ 117 ____ 10.5




    PS thank again for running these - good fun!



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,615 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Gonzo_____________6.8 _ 16.4 _ -4.2 _ 95 _ 110 ____ 11.3



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,448 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen_____________5.5 _ 16.2 _ -6.8 _ 90 _ 100 ____ 3.9



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,763 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Bsal_____________5.7 _ 17.0 _ -5.5 _ 80 _ 101 ____ 9.0



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,323 ✭✭✭esposito


    Esposito_____________5.2_ 15.9_ -8.2_ 85_ 110____ 4.2

    Post edited by esposito on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 186 ✭✭sunflower3


    Sunflower3_____________5.9 _ 16.8 _ -7.1 _ 85 _ 95 ____ 11.5



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,961 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Artane2002_____________6.3 _ 16.4 _ -5.2 _ 80 _ 100 ____ 4.6



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,525 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _____________5.7 _ 17.2 _ -4.7 _ 95 _ 110 ____ 11.2



  • Registered Users Posts: 337 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 6.0 ___ 16.6 ___ -4.6 ___ 85 ___ 110 ___ 10.0°



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,775 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Joe Public _____________5.1 _ 16.1 _ -8.7 _ 95 _ 105 ____ 4.1



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  • Registered Users Posts: 891 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    WolfeEire_____________6.1 _ 16.4 _ -5.6 _ 77 _ 115 ____ 7.2

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users Posts: 40 Cornerstonelad


    Cornerstonelad_______4.9_________15.9______-6.4______80.1_____129______3.6



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,523 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Mr stonewall_____5.9____14.9___-6.5___83_____115___12.3



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,227 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    M.T. Cranium ___________ 7.1 _ 16.3 _ -4.7 _ 184 _ 105 _ 10.8

    NormaL _______________ 5.3 _ 15.8 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 _ 10.2



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,091 ✭✭✭John mac


    johnmac__________5.8 _ 16.5 _ -4.7 _ 86 _ 107 ____ 9.6



  • Registered Users Posts: 701 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _______________ 6.4 _ 15.8 _ -6.8 _ 88 _ 114 _ 8.3



  • Registered Users Posts: 535 ✭✭✭dasa29


    Dasa29 _____________5.5 _ 17.5 _ -5.0 _ 110 _ 110 ____ 10.5



  • Registered Users Posts: 370 ✭✭waterways


    waterways _______________ 5.8 _ 16.2 _ -5.4 _ 104 _ 98 _ 8.9



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,695 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Appledrop __6.2___16.1__-5.2__85__110__9.8



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,063 ✭✭✭rameire


    Rameire_____________5.8 _ 16.9 _ -7.0 _ 88 _ 92 ____ 10.5

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Split 2.28S, 1.52E. 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Dacogawa_____________6.6 _ 15.4 _ -5.5 _ 86 _ 105 __ 10.0



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,471 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Jpmarn _______________ 5.1 _ 15.3 _ -6.8 _ 85 _ 120 _ 6.8



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,801 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Pauldry __6.5___16.5__-5.5__85__105__9.5



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,801 ✭✭✭pauldry




  • Registered Users Posts: 807 ✭✭✭adam240610


    Adam240610_______________ 7.0 _ 16.8 _ -6.5 _ 90 _ 90 _ 10.2



  • Registered Users Posts: 384 ✭✭mrskinner


    Skinner____6.5____15.7____-4.3____99____111____11



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,227 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium



    __ Table of forecasts for February 2024 __


    FORECASTER _____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 14th Newport

    M.T. Cranium ______________7.1 _ 16.3 _ -4.7 _ 184 _ 105 ___ 10.8

    Adam240610 ______________7.0 _ 16.8 _ -6.5 _ 090 _ 090 ___ 10.2

    Gonzo ___________________ 6.8 _ 16.4 _ -4.2 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 11.3

    Dacogawa_________________6.6 _ 15.4 _ -5.5 _ 086 _ 105 ___ 10.0

    Pauldry __________________ 6.5 _ 16.5 _ -5.5 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 9.5

    MrSkinner ________________ 6.5 _ 15.7 _ -4.3 _ 099 _ 111 ___ 11.0

    Tae laidir _________________ 6.4 _ 15.8 _ -6.8 _ 088 _ 114 ____ 8.3

    Artane2002 _______________6.3 _ 16.4 _ -5.2 _ 080 _ 100 ____ 4.6

    Appledrop ________________ 6.2 _ 16.1 _ -5.2 _ 085 _ 110 ____ 9.8

    Tazio ____________________ 6.2 _ 16.0 _ -3.5 _ 080 _ 117 ___ 10.5

    WolfeEire _________________6.1 _ 16.4 _ -5.6 _ 077 _ 115 ____ 7.2

    Kindred Spirit _____________ 6.0 _ 16.6 _ -4.6 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 10.0

    ___ Con Sensus ___________ 5.9 _ 16.3 _ -5.5 _ 086 _ 110 ___ 10.0

    Sunflower3 _______________ 5.9 _ 16.8 _ -7.1 _ 085 _ 095 ___ 11.5

    Mr stonewall ______________ 5.9 _ 14.9 _ -6.5 _ 083 _ 115 ___ 12.3

    Rameire ________________ 5.8 _ 16.9 _ -7.0 _ 088 _ 092 ___ 10.5

    johnmac _________________ 5.8 _ 16.5 _ -4.7 _ 086 _ 107 ____ 9.6

    waterways ________________5.8 _ 16.2 _ -5.4 _ 104 _ 098 ____ 8.9

    DOCARCH ________________ 5.7 _ 17.2 _ -4.7 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 11.2

    Bsal______________________5.7 _ 17.0 _ -5.5 _ 080 _ 101 ____ 9.0

    Dasa29 __________________ 5.5 _ 17.5 _ -5.0 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 10.5

    sryanbruen _______________ 5.5 _ 16.2 _ -6.8 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 3.9

    ___ NormaL ______________ 5.3 _ 15.8 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 10.2

    Esposito __________________5.2 _ 15.9 _ -8.2 _ 085 _ 110 ____ 4.2

    Joe Public ________________ 5.1 _ 16.1 _ -8.7 _ 095 _ 105 ____ 4.1

    Jpmarn __________________ 5.1 _ 15.3 _ -6.8 _ 085 _ 120 ____ 6.8

    Cornerstonelad ____________ 4.9 _ 15.9 _ -6.4 _ 080 _ 129 ____ 3.6

    ___________________________________

    25 forecasts, consensus is 13th ranked.

    Looks like I am "odd man out" on PRC, second highest forecast is 110%.



  • Registered Users Posts: 701 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Moore Park 14.1 yesterday.



  • Registered Users Posts: 701 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Moore Park 14.7 yesterday.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 701 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Looks like Mt. Dillon is our lowest so far at only -1.0



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