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February 2024 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 2024-01-29T23:01:41+00:00

* Predict the "IMT" or Irish Mean Temperature which is the average for night and day at these five locations: Casement, Mullingar, Claremorris, Oak Park, and Shannon. (In February the normal IMT is 5.3 C). That is worth a maximum of 25 points. You lose one point per 0.1 deg error. * Predict the MAX which is the highest…

M.T. Cranium

Predict the "IMT" or Irish Mean Temperature which is the average for night and day at these five locations: Casement, Mullingar, Claremorris, Oak Park, and Shannon. (In February the normal IMT is 5.3 C). That is worth a maximum of 25 points. You lose one point per 0.1 deg error.
Predict the MAX which is the highest reading at any of the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website. Worth 20 points, same error.
Predict the MIN, lowest reading, otherwise same idea. Worth 20 points, same error as the first two.
Predict the PRC which is the rainfall plus liquid equivalent of any other types of precipitation, as a percentage of normal for the average at eleven locations in Ireland. Those are the five listed in 1 above, plus Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle (in Wexford), Cork, and Valentia. (worth 15 points, you lose one point for each 3% error).
Predict the SUN, hours of sunshine also as a percentage of normal, from stats gathered at six locations around Ireland (Casement, Dublin, Cork, Valentia, Shannon, Belmullet). The average duration of sunshine in February is about 2.4 hours a day, so if you think we might average 3.0 hours, predict 125% (etc). Worth 10 points and the score is reduced for each multiple of 5% error.
BONUS for February __ Predict the maximum temperature on 14th Feb at Newport (10 points, scores are always by rank order regardless of whether the errors are big or small)

Deadline as always 0300h of 1st Feb, late penalties 1 point per 4 ours to 1500h 2nd and 1 point per our afterwards.

Will post forecasts for myself and NormaL in next two days; Newport's average ax would be around 10 C by 14t .

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M.T. Cranium

After first week ...

IMT _ 8.2 C (3.0 above normal)

MAX _ 14.7

MIN _ -1.0

PRC _ 83% of normal

SUN _ 39.3% of normal

Max 14th Newport __ GFS shows 10 C for this

pauldry

Rain gone above normal after today I'd imagine. Sun has taken a holiday since January. In Sligo I'd say wev only had 7 or 8 hours since January and a full 0 today on day 8.

M.T. Cranium

I may be holding a big hammer for PRC but so far projections fall between the wide goalposts of my forecast (184%) and second highest 110% (dasa29). The midpoint of that large gap is 147%. If that were the outcome, raw scores would all be 3 or less. I may need to ask around how to score this if we end up in that zone, probably some kind of cap on top progression level of 10/15 would be fair to everyone. The hammer only falls between 177 and 191, otherwise it's just the standard boost.

Tae laidir

Looks like we could all be in trouble for IMT and MIN as well.

pauldry

14c on the 14th is not out of the question. A low scoring month looks likely for most.

Joe Public

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121755935#Comment_121755935

It's a leap year so the agony will be dragged out longer 😀

pauldry

Aha! That's why MT went for 184percent rain. There's a flood coming Feb 29th!!

appledrop

I think most of us did OK last month, so this month will be pay back with nil points😁

WolfeEire

Me looking at MTC's precip forecast on February 1st and then seeing the precip accumulation charts for the next two weeks today

Tae laidir

Moore Park -2.2 yesterday.

Tae laidir

Newport hovering around 11.

Another high score for MT.

pauldry

11.3c I think was max from WOW or 11.4c

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for Bonus Max 14th Newport (11.4 C)

and f.y.i., scoring for MIN if result is -3.2 or above (-3.5 is our high forecast; full minimum progression would apply at an outcome of -3.2 or higher as top raw score will be less than 18. If result is 3.3 to 3.7, we get a hammer from Tazio (reduced boosts), but it won't be severe because of the spread of forecasts vs min progression. If we see a reading below -3.7 this discussion is irrelevant, scoring will probably go closer to raw scores.

I have left in the other categories but no scoring suggestions yet. At the rate things are going, could require minimum progression on PRC and once again a hammer situation would only apply if outcome is 177-191 (to get a raw score of 13-15).

FORECASTER _____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _score_PRC _ SUN ___ Max 14th Newport

__ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ error ___ score

M.T. Cranium ______________7.1 _ 16.3 _ -4.7 _ 16 _ 184 _ 105 ___ 10.8 ____-0.6 ____ 9

Adam240610 ______________7.0 _ 16.8 _ -6.5 _ 07 _ 090 _ 090 ___ 10.2 ____-1.2 ____ 8

Gonzo ___________________ 6.8 _ 16.4 _ -4.2 _ 19 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 11.3 ____-0.1 ___ 10

Dacogawa_________________6.6 _ 15.4 _ -5.5 _ 10 _ 086 _ 105 ___ 10.0 ____-1.4 ____ 7

Pauldry __________________ 6.5 _ 16.5 _ -5.5 _ 10 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 9.5 ____-1.9 ____ 6

MrSkinner ________________ 6.5 _ 15.7 _ -4.3 _ 18 _ 099 _ 111 ___ 11.0 ____-0.4 ___ 10

Tae laidir _________________ 6.4 _ 15.8 _ -6.8 _ 06 _ 088 _ 114 ____ 8.3 ____-3.1 ____ 4

Artane2002 _______________6.3 _ 16.4 _ -5.2 _ 13 _ 080 _ 100 ____ 4.6 ____-6.8 ____ 2

Appledrop ________________ 6.2 _ 16.1 _ -5.2 _ 13 _ 085 _ 110 ____ 9.8 ____-1.6 ____ 7

Tazio ____________________ 6.2 _ 16.0 _ -3.5 _ 20 _ 080 _ 117 ___ 10.5 ____-0.9 ____ 9

WolfeEire _________________6.1 _ 16.4 _ -5.6 _ 09 _ 077 _ 115 ____ 7.2 ____-4.2 ____ 3

Kindred Spirit _____________ 6.0 _ 16.6 _ -4.6 _ 17 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 10.0 ____-1.4 ____ 7

___ Con Sensus ___________ 5.9 _ 16.3 _ -5.5 _ 10 _ 086 _ 110 ___ 10.0 ____-1.4 ____ 7

Sunflower3 _______________ 5.9 _ 16.8 _ -7.1 _ 04 _ 085 _ 095 ___ 11.5 ____+0.1 ___ 10

Mr stonewall ______________ 5.9 _ 14.9 _ -6.5 _ 07 _ 083 _ 115 ___ 12.3 ____+0.9 ____ 9

Rameire ________________ 5.8 _ 16.9 _ -7.0 _ 05 _ 088 _ 092 ___ 10.5 ____-0.9 ____ 9

johnmac _________________ 5.8 _ 16.5 _ -4.7 _ 16 _ 086 _ 107 ____ 9.6 ____-1.8 ____ 6

waterways ________________5.8 _ 16.2 _ -5.4 _ 11 _ 104 _ 098 ____ 8.9 ____-2.5 ____ 5

DOCARCH ________________ 5.7 _ 17.2 _ -4.7 _ 16 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 11.2 ____-0.2 ___ 10

Bsal______________________5.7 _ 17.0 _ -5.5 _ 10 _ 080 _ 101 ____ 9.0 ____-2.4 ____ 5

Dasa29 __________________ 5.5 _ 17.5 _ -5.0 _ 14 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 10.5 ____-0.9 ____ 9

sryanbruen _______________ 5.5 _ 16.2 _ -6.8 _ 06 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 3.9 ____-7.5 ____ 1

___ NormaL ______________ 5.3 _ 15.8 _ -6.5 _ 07 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 10.2 ____-1.2 ____ 8

Esposito __________________5.2 _ 15.9 _ -8.2 _ 04 _ 085 _ 110 ____ 4.2 ____-7.2 ____ 2

Joe Public ________________ 5.1 _ 16.1 _ -8.7 _ 03 _ 095 _ 105 ____ 4.1 ____-7.3 ____ 2

Jpmarn __________________ 5.1 _ 15.3 _ -6.8 _ 07 _ 085 _ 120 ____ 6.8 ____-4.6 ____ 3

Cornerstonelad ____________ 4.9 _ 15.9 _ -6.4 _ 09 _ 080 _ 129 ____ 3.6 ____-7.8 ____ 1

___________________________________

Only two forecasts were above the outcome, and not by very much. Back later with a week two update.

DOCARCH

11.4c max. confirmed for Newport yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT _ 7.3 C (2.0 above normal) second week average 6.4 C (1.0 above).

MAX _ 14.7

MIN _ -2.2

PRC _ 142% of normal, second week wet (201%).

SUN _ 66.5% of normal, second week near average (93.7%).

Max 14th Newport __ 11.4 C __ scored in a separate post above

Quite a variety on current guidance, IMT will probably rise to 8 or above before dropping back; PRC does look fairly solid but I suspect it will end up in a big gap between 110 and 184. SUN is bound to improve but will be struggling to get past 80%.

In scoring post for bonus, I also ran minimum progression on MIN but we may not need it, if it drops below -4.5 we probably won't.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT _ 8.2 C (2.8 above normal) third week average a very high 10.1 C (4.5 above).

MAX _ 14.7

MIN _ -2.2

PRC _ 140% of normal, third week 138%.

SUN _ 75% of normal, third week est 90% (Cork data not available, but est 100%).

Max 14th Newport __ 11.4 C __ scored in a separate post earlier

Colder on current guidance, IMT will probably drop to around 7.2 by end of Feb, PRC still looks like it will end up in a big gap between forecasts of 110 and 184 per cent, it could fall back a bit after today keeps it close to 140%. SUN is bound to improve and will eventually get past 80%.

In scoring post for bonus, I also ran minimum progression on MIN but we may not need it, if it drops below -4.5 we probably won't. Not likely to do so but Tuesday 27 Feb was looking frosty on guidance; MAX is surprisingly low considering the current IMT, but we're probably done now.

Over in Britain the CET was last reported at 8.7 C and the record is 7.9 (way back in 1779), also the past week's average of 10.7 there is an all-time high value for February.

I suppose with it being a leap year I can post a fourth week report a day before it's all done.

M.T. Cranium

Counting today's reported rainfalls the PRC will end up just about in the centre of the large gap in forecasts (centre being 147%), possibly a bit lower (I have it at 132% now). I don't see any chance of it getting close to 184% but in any case, will score from minimum progression using 13/15 as top score as a slight nod to our generally inaccurate group performance. The IMT will also need to be scored from minimum progression as it will be 7.6 or thereabouts (it was 7.66 after 27 days, would likely be 7.70 after 28 and could drop a bit after 29th). In that case I will start from 24/25 and to be fair to all I will just score the forecasts as if 7.2 was the outcome, that will eliminate any odd effects of the rank ordering. A fourth week report will happen tomorrow and I may also post preliminary scoring then because we won't get a monthly summary until 4th (assuming it's not a bank holiday on 4th).

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT _ 7.7 C (2.5 above normal) fourth week average 6.0 C (0.1 above). Likely 7.6 finish.

MAX _ 14.7

MIN _ -2.2

PRC _ 142% of normal, fourth week 126%. (after today likely 140%)

SUN _ 85% of normal, fourth week 113%

Max 14th Newport __ 11.4 C __ scored in a separate post earlier

M.T. Cranium

IMT 7.6 and PRC 142% calculated, SUN in 85-90 range, will see MS on 4 Mar to verify actuals.

Early unofficial scoring later today if I can get to it.

Tae laidir

Remarkably poor forecasting this month.

IMT. 0 above, 25 below actual.

MAX. 25 above, 0 below actual.

MIN. 0 above, 25 below actual.

PRC. 1 (MTC) above, 24 below.

SUN. (85-90), say 88, 25 above, 0 below.

M.T. Cranium

Scoring estimates for February 2024

FORECASTER _____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _score_PRC _ SUN ___ Max 14th Newport

__ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __7.6__14 .7__-2.2 __ __ _142 _ 090 __ _11.4_ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ TOTAL

M.T. Cranium ______________24 _ 08 _ 16 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 9 _____ 74

Adam240610 ______________23 _ 04 _ 07 _ 06 _ 10 ___ 8 _____ 58

Gonzo ___________________ 21 _ 07 _ 19 _ 08 _ 06 ___10 _____ 71

Dacogawa_________________19 _ 16 _ 10 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 7 _____ 64

Pauldry __________________ 18 _ 06 _ 10 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 6 _____ 52

MrSkinner ________________ 18 _ 15 _ 18 _ 09 _ 06 ___10 _____ 76

Tae laidir _________________ 17 _ 13 _ 06 _ 06 _ 05 ___ 4 _____ 51

Artane2002 _______________ 16 _ 07 _ 13 _ 02 _ 08 ___ 2 _____ 48

Appledrop ________________ 15 _ 10 _ 13 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 7 _____ 56

Tazio ____________________ 15 _ 11 _ 20 _ 02 _ 05 ___ 9 _____ 62

WolfeEire _________________14 _ 07 _ 09 _ 01 _ 05 ___ 3 _____ 39

Kindred Spirit _____________ 13 _ 05 _ 17 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 7 _____ 53

___ Con Sensus ___________ 12 _ 08 _ 10 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 7 _____ 48

Sunflower3 _______________ 12 _ 04 _ 04 _ 05 _ 09 ___10 _____ 44

Mr stonewall ______________ 12 _ 20 _ 07 _ 04 _ 05 ___ 9 _____ 57

Rameire ________________ 11 _ 02 _ 05 _ 06 _ 10 ___ 9 _____ 43

johnmac _________________ 11 _ 06 _ 16 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 6 _____ 51

waterways ________________11 _ 09 _ 11 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 5 _____ 55

DOCARCH ________________ 10 _ 01 _ 16 _ 08 _ 06___10 _____ 51

Bsal______________________10 _ 02 _ 10 _ 03 _ 08 ___ 5 _____ 38

Dasa29 __________________ 08 _ 00 _ 14 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 9 _____ 50

sryanbruen _______________ 08 _ 09 _ 06 _ 06 _ 08 ___ 1 _____ 38

___ NormaL ______________ 06 _ 13 _ 07 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 8 _____ 52

Esposito __________________05 _ 12 _ 04 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 2 _____ 34

Joe Public ________________ 04 _ 10 _ 03 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 2 _____ 34

Jpmarn __________________ 04 _ 17 _ 07 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 3 _____ 40

Cornerstonelad ____________ 02 _ 12 _ 09 _ 03 _ 02 ___ 1 _____ 29

___________________________________

minimum progression:

IMT _ scored from 7.2 to maintain differentials (everyone got 4 extra points, except Cornerstonelad with raw score -2)

MAX _ classic hammer situation, mr stonewall (14.9) 18 goes to 20, rest of progression get mid-point of progression value and raw score

MIN _ classic minimum progression by rank order (nobody close to hammer)

PRC _ scored from 116 to give best forecasts (110) 13 of 15, mtc score at same error value (184-142=42, 142-42= 100).

SUN _ scoring does not need boost but scored from 90 no matter what outcome is (unless 91+ would then need revisions)

BONUS _ always scored from rank order anyway.

Scores will be placed in rank order when final values are established on 4th ... also annual scoring and four seasons updates will follow.

I will do a fairness check to see if raw scores to adjusted scores contain any irregular jogs. Everyone has added 20-30 to their raw scores at least.

M.T. Cranium

All the rain that fell on 1st would have been good for my 184% forecast (I worked out it would have taken PRC to 165%). ... Anyway, following you will find updated Feb scoring and annual scoring, since it's only two months, I combined the usual annual update with category scoring.

Four seasons report is also available (it will add on DEC scores) ...

... posting before confirming scores below, will report in this space if any changes were made after about 1200 today.

... after review of data in MS, all data are as estimated, no edits required ...

Updated February 2024 scoring

FORECASTER _____________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_Max 14th Newport

__ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __7.6_14.7_-2.2_142_090__11.4_ __TOTAL

MrSkinner ________________ 18 _ 15 _ 18 _ 09 _ 06 ___10 _____76

M.T. Cranium ______________24 _ 08 _ 16 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 9 _____ 74

Gonzo ___________________ 21 _ 07 _ 19 _ 08 _ 06 ___10 _____71