Ian Bailey RIP - threadbans in OP

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669340#Comment_121669340

Alfie was 90% sure.

Pretty much sums up the investigation.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669318#Comment_121669318

I don't think she was out carousing in the pubs and going to parties like Ian Bailey was.

Apparently she was pretty fastidious with her diary and address/phone book and no mention of Ian Bailey was found.

Likewise Ian Bailey was constantly scrawling in his diary and notebooks and no mention of Sophie.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669340#Comment_121669340

Sophie was pretty fastidious with her diary and address/phone book. No mention of Ian Bailey. Everyone else she interacted with in Ireland was there though.

They examined all of Ian Bailey's diaries and notebooks also.

I think Ian Bailey barely knew of her existence.

Zola1000

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669351#Comment_121669351

Agree and 90% is all we have and 10% nothing. But it narrows an area of evidence that we don't have. Surely in such remote area ..bailey taking trips to Alfie's and he's not aware that a house that's empty most of year Is occupied by french lady ...that he has seen or Alphie introduced him. I mean how many opportunities would have Alphie had to introduce her, if she was only there few times..so its not like he can't remember as there would only have been few chances of doing that introduction...

nacho libre

https://archive.ph/swSVC

Could this lead to a breakthrough ?

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669218#Comment_121669218

That is an incredibly unlikely scenario, about as likely as the French hitman with a rock and several other murder weapons theory. Its unlikely anyone came over from France to carry out this murder as they'd leave a huge trail of evidence including flights, B&B or hotel, carhire, and so on. Contract or professional killers generally like to do things the easy way and quickly, not make a big song and dance about it.

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669185#Comment_121669185

A standard house robber? Not to the degree of her injuries no. Robbers generally want to flee when disturbed - yes there are all sorts of horrible stories of what burglars have done to householders, but these are extreme exceptions- and a burglar in that isolated area at Christmas? They would have to have been local - it doesn’t add up to me anyway

Rows Grower

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669337#Comment_121669337

He didn't report that Bailey had no friends or family, you just made that up yourself.

As for your claim he was never too bothered about facts, what do you base that libelous accusation on?

The man is a journalist of the upmost integrity and author of 10 books, 5 of which were best sellers.

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669234#Comment_121669234

Anyone who lives in or has visited a rural area for any length of time knows what they are like. There is very little to do there except gossip and talk about who the neighbours are, who owns what house and who lives where. Everyone knows everyone's business.

Based on what he said in a recent podcast about her movements on the day before the murder in Schull and his frequent visits to her neighbours house, you'd have to suspect there was an element of stalking going on.

Zola1000

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669376#Comment_121669376

This is interesting further and not something I had know. But aside from that was the phone call from family member with Sophie weeks earlier where she mentioned she was going meet with writer eccentric individual and wanted someone travel with her. I guess I knows it's far fetched that it's bailey.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669418#Comment_121669418

The scenario with Bailey as outlined by AGS is "incredibly unlikely", both in motivation and in lack of evidence left at the scene, and in similar cases.

Who said they were contract killers?

Criminals make mistakes all the time, they are not always experienced, trained killers. They slip up. They are surprised. Guns jam. They could have been going to rough up or threaten these guys hiding out, and were looking in Sophies. The crime annals are full of cases where criminals and hitman and thugs don't do things the easy way, whether because of incompetence or outside events disrupting things. Where things escalate out of control and end up with someone dead, though there was no intention to murder at the outset.

Are you saying the Guards checked the record of every visitor from the Continent at the time of the murder, random French people whose names they don't know? For what? They could have come over on a ferry. They left a trail, which would be lost in the volume of information, and would not stand out from the crowd.

JVince

For those who think the gardai are great chaps and who would never coerce witnesses or induce witnesses, read this Phoenix article.

https://www.thephoenix.ie/article/pursued-beyond-the-grave/

They have not paywalled this.

Seems the DPP was cascading in their comments about the gardai. And remember it was the garda reports the french used. Reports that were thrown out and lambasted by the dpp.

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669242#Comment_121669242

Someone mentioned certain people not yet questioned that they thought should have been. My GUESS, is that this person or persons will be brought in for questioning once all of the evidence is compiled and questions will then be asked of them.

I wouldn’t at all be surprised if a file was also submitted to the DPP around a certain person or persons accused of withholding evidence or concealment of evidence whatever the exact charge is - whether or not a trial is possible considering no murder trial is actually now going to go ahead with Bailey at least, is an unknown. Usually such prosecutions would go ahead after the main murder trial I think.

FishOnABike

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669266#Comment_121669266

Yes, and he was rightly convicted for assaulting Jules Thomas. That doesn't make him, any more than my ex, a murderer though.

tobefrank321

Unfortunately this is also behind a paywall but the gist of it is that Bailey knew her reasonably well, and may have met her on several occassions, despite him denying knowledge of her or who she was (which is simply not credible).

Gardaí probe new claims that Ian Bailey had met Sophie Toscan du Plantier prior to her murder | Independent.ie

Its related once more to his credibility.

Zola1000

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669452#Comment_121669452

This is very true. It's just not plausible it was from any individual outside of Ireland given this location. I've lived in rural areas and believe me at best of times I'd get lost and places that have lived for years you discover new road..so it's definitely someone who knew surroundings.

Again a burglary really just doesn't fit given they do generally want flee and nature of beating...is just beyond a random burglar. It's someone who knew they could carry this out for whatever reason and lived locally.

tomhammer..

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121668142#Comment_121668142

There's posters on the other thread attacking me over the alibi insisting he forgot he left the bed

Despite the fact she lied and then they both changed their story

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669452#Comment_121669452

That part of Cork though is all blow-ins.

English, Germans, Dutch, French etc. I think lots of people kept to themselves.

Anyway, we can only go on evidence like adreessbooks, phone records, diaries. The evidence suggests they didn't really know each other. Sophie probably didn't even know of his existence.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669505#Comment_121669505

People found locations such as this all the time, pre-internet, going from a map and information from whoever created the purpose that sent them there.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669436#Comment_121669436

I'm just joining the dots.

The pathology report stated that a stick/poker was the initial weapon. A poker was missing from her house.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669502#Comment_121669502

Highly unlikely claims being made here, trivial memories retained for years, or recollected after years, couched in uncertainty.

None of these amount to Bailey being 'familiar' with Sophie, which is "well known from long or close association" or "in close friendship; intimate."

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669337#Comment_121669337

What he probably meant or in fact said is no friends or family turned up at the cremation. Frank Buttimer released some information and its likely he got the rest from the crematorian staff. Sounds like he was estranged from his family, his ex partner no longer felt anything for him and he had few if any friends. Unless you have evidence he was well liked and had loads of friends, if so you might post it here.

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669351#Comment_121669351

Over 50% means on the balance of probabilities. ie more probable than not. So 90% is a very high probability.

tomhammer..

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669502#Comment_121669502

It clear that the focus is indeed on bailey in the review

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669575#Comment_121669575

I thought it was a closed ceremony? Friends or colleagues or drinking buddies or whoever couldn't just turn up.

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669359#Comment_121669359

She said to a French friend she talked with a Bailey and when he said was it the French director, he said no Ian Bailey. The French friend gave this account.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669592#Comment_121669592

The French friend gave this account years later, after Baileys name had been all of the news, she didn't tell this story until years later when the French were desperate for evidence against Bailey. It is well dodgy.

Zola1000

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669550#Comment_121669550

Ok I understand that and accept that could be also angle. But if we take the hitman angle of this case and given complexity of locations etc, would it not have been easier for them target Sophie in France or not..like to drive to there, carry it out and drive to another location all at that time again seems unreasonable but it's very hard to see that

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669257#Comment_121669257

You’ve given food for thought/ the only way the public will accept whatever outcome is that they are as transparent as possible - I don’t know how transparent they can be though, especially if there are other suspects which cannot be followed up on for whatever reason. So where does that leave the case? Open, unresolved- “here’s what we think of Bailey but it could be someone else too” - yikes that would be a nightmare after all the investigations

Rows Grower

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669564#Comment_121669564

Which pathology report was that?