FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

bazlers

Im not a mod or an angel by any means but id say leave it at that lads and PM each other. Its a nice environment here.

Reversal

Delete

Reversal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121625645#Comment_121625645

Hmm yes I figured it would be quite the task.

The -8c t850hpa was just an arbitrary idea, maybe an arbitrary "over Athlone" location could be the marker, as it would remove bias for easterlies vs northerlys. Would there be an easier marker to pick out cold spells, and track their frequency across the decades? Ice days perhaps?

Artane2002

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121625694#Comment_121625694

Another thing to be wary of with that vortex is that it could push the high too far east or southeast, meaning the easterly doesn't reach us and leaving us stuck with mild southwesterlies if there isn't a sufficient undercut. I hope I'm wrong but as of now I suspect we're in for a very mild (maybe even notably so going on recent form) and dry February. The caveat is that the vortex has been exceptionally unpredictable this winter, so it could have a few surprises up its sleeve, otherwise I'd be more confident in what I said. That said, dry would definitely not be the worst thing in the world, it's shocking how saturated the ground is, even here in Dublin despite the previous two months being drier than average.

Eibhir

I know this is the wrong place for this but just as the poster mentioned Dublin Airport temps here. From an old excel of mine, a chart of mean 5 year winter temps for old Kilkenny Met Station up to 2014. The data is CSO/Met Eireann. I forgot about updating 10 years ago! You can see 2010's effect on winter temps for the 5 years 2010-2014.

WolfeEire

The easterly was 'somewhat' of an outlier. This is from eastern England in order to really test the control run. Will be interesting to see if it flirts with the idea in upcoming runs. The same applies to the ECMWF, JMA and GEM as the GFS showed Scandi heights building from later next week

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121625801#Comment_121625801

Wow it’s actually hard to believe ‘the previous two months being drier than average’. Mind you it was the wind that was more relentless than the rain.

I certainly hope you’re wrong about February being mild and dry, but going on recent February’s you could well be right. Even if February turns out to be milder than average, if we get 3-5 days of a proper easterly or N’easterly with snow showers I would be a very happy man.

WolfeEire

Gfs 18z making a decent effort to build heights into Scandi again but, ultimately, our weather looks atypical for us in late January, especially that crippling Azores High extending north

L

Dazler97

Met Office further outlook is interesting of a possible easterly

nacho libre

This is a chart that might lead to something interesting for Gonzo in the days afterwards

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121630484#Comment_121630484

There is 6-7 members of the 30 showing a Scandi for 14-16 days time. Just an observation. The last three weeks have taught me to say that 23 members do NOT show a Scandi!!

Gonzo

Blocking is going to disappear into thin air from Friday but a fair chance it will come back either 1st week of February or the second week. The MJO is going back into the warm phases currently which helped bring the very mild and extremely unsettled conditions for December and we are seeing a very similar setup from this weekend. Mild temperatures and no shortage of wind and rain. However I believe we should be going back into the cold phases again in early February so a I'd say there is a reasonable chance we will get another cold spell in February. Hoping for a Scandinavian high this time around stretching over towards Iceland/Greenland and those dreaded heights to completely disappear from southern Europe/Spain/Portugal etc and we maybe in with a chance of a decent easterly/north-easterly fingers crossed. However a week to 10 days of mild or very mild weather is likely before we start to see possible chances to something colder for February.

Some of the long range models are also showing hints toward some very chilly conditions at times for March if cold Marchs are your thing but let's see how February turns out first.

bazlers

I have no doubt we will get the Scandi High when that deep cold is washed away in the next 2 to 3 weeks over there. It would be our luck. If we did get a a Scandi High i would love to see it connecting wih Russian/Siberia and drag in colder temps turning our emerald isle into narnia for two weeks.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121631041#Comment_121631041

Well it can cool down quickly in the space of a couple days. We need to see those heights drop over Iberia to bring in the real deal. If they don't then we may as well forget about it.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121631172#Comment_121631172

One of the main problems about the past 2 weeks was those heights over Iberia. We've had blocking for over 2 weeks now but those heights prevented real cold getting our way until now and just as we get the cold in it's about to be swept away. One of the reasons why we were chasing cold for 3 weeks, those heights refusing to go and the models kept changing from one scenario to another with model chaos. If those heights over Iberia disappeared 2 weeks ago when Scandinavia was in record breaking cold we would have probably truly gone deep into the freezer over a week ago or more.

Fingers crossed we get the real deal in February and that it is much more straight forward.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121631245#Comment_121631245

Yes , I agree they have been a persistent spoiler this winter. They stopped us getting a decent cold spell in December too. There is a very real danger they could do the same again in February

Neddyusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121631245#Comment_121631245

Well it's normally the Azores high that keeps the cold away from us in winter, or failing that, a euro high, so at least the Iberian high seems like a slightly more exotic way to keep us mild 😜

In all seriousness though, fair play to you Gonzo for providing that explanation of exactly how we (bar these 3 days) avoided the cold in spite of the extended blocking.

Too often when these "preferred forecasts" don't materialise, posters get the hump and these threads go entirely dead abruptly. It would be much more interesting, for me at least, if those who put so much effort into interpreting FI charts put even a small amount into analysing how and why the models get it wrong, as you have done here.

Gonzo

I normally always look for easterlies or north-easterlies but I would not say no to this northerly, very, very unlikely to verify tho.

An extreme outlier with upper air temperatures close to -15C. This northerly with very strong winds and deep instability would bring snow right now across the country in troughs and possibly polar lows. This is like one of the old school northerlies that means business with a very unstable bitter artic airflow sourced well north of Svalbard.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121632348#Comment_121632348

That would be 1969 territory in terms of those uppers if it happened- which of course it won't. Even in a potent northerly it's rare to get uppers lower than -10.

nacho libre

I see Gonzo has now broken into the GEM headquarters. Wouldn't it be great just for once if we had a quick and seamless return to colder conditions

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121632641#Comment_121632641

After that it was onto the CFS headquarters trying to fix that model!

But sadly I keep seeing this error, a very common occurrence

nacho libre

And that error will correct itself by March, when it's too late, just you wait and see! Sryan mentioned the -13 upper air got past the west coast back in late February 2018. Just imagine what the temperatures by day and by night would have been if it was all a month earlier.

Elmer Blooker

a January 1986 chart, not unlike what we are seeing now towards Scandinavia, not predicting anything .. just sayin’

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121633982#Comment_121633982

Wasn't that bone dry (for most anyway?). I will remember Jan 1987 til I die but don't really remember Jan 86 (I was 9).

Elmer Blooker

yes, no snowfall worth talking about, only light falls, an easterly month like 1947 and both followed very wet summers.

again …. just sayin’ ..

Billcarson

There was some snow in the east at the end of jan/ start of Feb 86. Moderate falls at best not big amounts. Still I got a couple of days off school.

Carol25

Interesting the concept of too much blocking in winter leading to wet summers. I’d take a mild winter any day of the week if it meant good summer weather.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121634969#Comment_121634969

I'd take poor summer any day of the week if it meant a cold winter.

DarkJager21

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121635047#Comment_121635047

No thanks. We're basically the geographical version of "we have summer/winter at home" as it is.

IrishHomer

Almost 50 years ago the teacher in my school drilled it into us that Ireland has a mild temperate climate. This is still the case so get over it people