FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121623603#Comment_121623603

Even if it’s late February I won’t mind as long as we get a right cold blast for a few days from the east or Northeast. A scandi high I’m praying for.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121623221#Comment_121623221

Open to correction if someone runs the data but, certainly from the early 90's on, I remember few enough winters with -8s. That's pretty low. I think the more telling stat might be how relatively rarely its been -5 even at, say, Dublin airport. That would have been a given every winter I think, but now might be 1 in every 2 or 3 winters.

finlma

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121623753#Comment_121623753

The data has been run from Met Eireann's historical data. The number of days where -5 or lower was recorded per decade in Dublin Airport since the 1940s.

Data only started in 1942. I think this proves that people look to the past through misty eyes. We've had more cold days in recent times.

Source: Historical Data - Met Éireann - The Irish Meteorological Service

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121623998#Comment_121623998

Thats very interesting. 2010 distorts a little but amazed the 00's had way move than the 80's.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121623998#Comment_121623998

The 2010s tho greatly inflated by the historic 2010 event and the 2018 events.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121624806#Comment_121624806

That's what I was thinking. Still surprising that the 90s and 80s are equal. There was a series of crud winter in the early 90s that were snowless, but they did improve after that period

US3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121623998#Comment_121623998

I'd like to see the same data for below 0 rather than - 5. In the mid West we get - 5 alot more frequent than Dublin Airport

WolfeEire

The GFS is doing it to us again. Carrot on stick building a Scandi High from day 9-10

Anyone else ready for a ...

Reckless Abandonment

Yeah wolf.. Time to buckle in for another ride.. at least it's showing an easterly. I'm done chasing northerly setups

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121624956#Comment_121624956

Let's go @Reckless Abandonment

nacho libre

It's reminiscent of 1991 in one way. I mean in relation to the monster pv over Greenland . That was proof you could get blocking with a positive NAO.

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121624918#Comment_121624918

Nope. Three weeks of how can i put it....Sh#te to come. I need to recuperate after the last chase 😊

My glass half full concept is shattered.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121624988#Comment_121624988

Yes, don't do it to yourself Bazlers. So will the GFS model now be the go to model on Netweather. It's cannon fodder when it shows crap runs

Gonzo

For the moment I'm certainly not buying into it, nice to see an easterly but hopefully in February we can build on this. Please no more northerlies there not even worth chasing and end up annoying us more than anything.

The GFS 12z most likely a massive outlier unsupported and will more than likely be gone on the next few runs at least. Even if the next few runs build on this which they won't I'm not going to get excited till +72 hours, as we all know so much can go wrong very quickly and all it takes is one thing out of alignment and we are left high and dry or in no mans land.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121624969#Comment_121624969

I’m on board!!!

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121625073#Comment_121625073

We get it you don’t like northerlies, you’ve mentioned it about 15 times already this week. As Northerlies go this one has been weak so far bar some northern counties this morning but this was expected with the warm sector but 9 counties on the island are under a snow warning for the next few days so to say they’re not worth chasing and end up annoying “us” more than anything is just ridiculous and childish when they deliver for other areas.

Fair enough they don’t deliver for you but it’s tiresome when you constantly complain and base whatever happens in your back garden as representative of the entire island when that’s not the case. There’s been what 4 or 5 busted flushes easterlies since 2018 so I hope the next one delivers.

finlma

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121624806#Comment_121624806

Yes, 27 days in 2010.

Eibhir

The data on Dublin Airport, are these trends visible across Irish stations?

nacho libre

Well this will definitely happen- a high stretching from Ireland all the way up to Arctic Russia. I think it could be like what Sryan said the model overreacting to a signal and losing the plot .

Reversal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121625329#Comment_121625329

Or maybe this time...

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121623998#Comment_121623998

Presume that's air temperatures, the poster asked for 850hPa temperatures.

Reversal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121625343#Comment_121625343

Correct, I thought 850hpa temps may give a better indication on the prevalence of proper cold snaps, as opposed to frosty high pressure nights.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121625329#Comment_121625329

I was saying yesterday that the GFS is stacked with additional processing power and inputs to pick up faint signals. It then tends to overamplify them. Even if it did come off, one thing is for sure is that snow line is guaranteed to end just before the northern ring road in Cork City. In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and the Cork Snow Shield.

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121625329#Comment_121625329

Well would ya look at that! Has me hooked, im on board this baby!

Jokies 😃 😀

Dazler97

Sunday looks bad on the met eirrean pressure charts ,first time in a while I've seen force 12 (hurricane force winds) off the west coast before heading into Scotland and northern England red warnings I'd say with wind gusts 100+ mph or 162km/h+

Reversal

Scandi High nailed on, we haven't seen this sort of cross model agreement since 2010 last week.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121625197#Comment_121625197

My thoughts on northerlies is not based upon my back garden. Most of Ireland away from the north-west does not get any snow affects from a northerly unless it's one of those extremely rare proper unstable northerlies with Polar Lows with troughs and convergence lines. It's a similar situation for much of England too northerlies have very little impact there too. Most of our population lives in the areas not affected by northerlies such as Dublin, Cork, Waterford, Limerick and Galway to some extent and all the other towns in between, so from a now perspective this cold spell has been very poor and as you say the past few easterlies haven't delivered either.

I want snow in my back garden just like everybody else but nothing would make me happier than to see most of the country blanketed in Snow just like it was in 2010 and 2018 so can you just please stop being arrogant for the sake of it.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121625357#Comment_121625357

The only radiosonde stations in Ireland are Valentia and Lough Fea as far as I know. Valentia would not be the most reflective whilst Lough Fea data is not on my usual source. Balloons are ascended usually only midnight and midday too, sometimes never at all, and the -8C could have been achieved outside of their recording timeframe.

Meteociel ERA5 reanalysis makes it very easy to see 850hPa temperatures for the whole country with UK/Ireland zoomed in maps and resolution is decent, especially compared to NCEP reanalysis. They're worlds apart. It just comes down to who has the patience to flick through tons of daily charts and record each occasion -8C was achieved. I think you know what I'm getting at, that's my kind of task. However, the one question I have is at what bar do I draw the line at? Will I mark it down if it just touched say the north or east, will I mark it down if it's reached at least half the country or do I mark it down if it's cleared the entire country?

If you still want this, I will look at this and then provide an answer in another thread as this is off topic to the current one.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121625575#Comment_121625575

The Vortex could be our friend for once. A robust Scandi High forms because of it, which then moves over to Greenland. So those who miss out initially get in on the action. Now just the small matter of counting it down. Sure what could go wrong you ask- the UKMO mentioning a low risk of milder interludes and unsettled weather in the north for one. They said there was a low risk of milder weather next week at one stage too. So the reality is we probably end up with a high that allows the Atlantic in from the north west. I am not on board with this until I see at least two more runs with cross model agreement. . Suspend your belief it can happen till it's at t-72 or less.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121625584#Comment_121625584

Arrogant? For pointing out you’re talking shite. The only person being arrogant is you with your constant ignoring of what happens elsewhere and rubbishing it if it doesn’t happen in your back garden and acting as if you’re a spokesperson for everyone by saying it’s a waste of time for us. You’re just a broken record. How you were made a mod is beyond me, just a whinging gloomy troll who regurgitates the same shite over and over.