Storm Ciaran :Associated weather effects, primarily flooding risks, Advisory 29th -02 Nov 2023

PokeHerKing

I've family in Jersey. They've taken in the roads apparently. Red alert and everything cancelled.

Sad this beast is missing us.

kadman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121311030#Comment_121311030

Why is it sad its missing us....we should be delighted surely.

.Donegal.

Update from the French Met

Violent autumn storm, of exceptional strength for the departments placed on red alert, but with a much smaller geographical extension than for the storms of December 1999.

On Wednesday evening, storm CIARAN approaches western Brittany and quickly spreads westward the Pays de la Loire and Cotentin.

In these areas, the south wind is strongly strengthened and quickly exceeds 100 km/h: a first period of very strong gusts, on Wednesday evening, will lead to values of 100 to 120 km/h in general and up to 130 km/h on the coasts between Finistère and Vendée.

After a brief and very relative lull, a new wind reinforcement (coming from the west this time) in the second part of the night from Wednesday to Thursday concerns Finistère, the Côtes d'Armor and the Cotentin. The gusts are then very violent: 130 to 140 km/h inland, 150 to 170 km/h on the coasts or even more on the exposed capes. From Morbihan to the Loire-Atlantique, the western gusts are a notch below, but can reach 110 to 120 km/h inland and up to 140 km/h on the coast.

Further east on Thursday, at the end of the night and morning, from the interior of the Pays de la Loire, to Normandy and then to the Hauts de France strong gusts of southwest wind between 100 and 110 km/h are expected, up to 130/140 km/h on the coast of the Channel. On the departments of the Paris region on orange alert as well as on the Eure-et-Loir, the gusts may reach (or even slightly exceed) 100 km/h, the episode will therefore be of less intensity than elsewhere and will stop at the end of the night.

Note that on the departments in yellow vigilance bordering those in orange vigilance, gusts of 90 to locally 100 km/h are possible at night.

adocholiday

Trend northwest continues with the 12z rollout. ICON has the centre about 100km N/NW of its position on yesterday's 12z. Again nothing extreme as a result for us, but heavier rain across a wider area overnight now looking likely, still primarily a SE event with between 20-30mm to fall around parts of Waterford, Wexford and Wicklow. It's bad news for our English neighbours however, because it brings some fairly strong winds further inland in the SE where they wouldn't get strong winds as regularly.

Today's ICON 12z compared with yesterday's for reference:

and how the winds are looking for the UK tomorrow as a result of that shift compared to yesterday's 12z run, but bear in mind the ICON tends to overdo gusts, the real values will probably be a bit lower.

Oscar Bravo

Some sight. Its a big one!

Stormyhead

Hello. New to this and have a question. How can coastal areas of countries such as France get higher wind speeds than anything recorded during storms in Ireland? Surely our western extremity into the Atlantic should see us get much higher speeds than places such as Brittany.

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121311434#Comment_121311434

The first 2 minutes of this video the UK Met Office released today actually has a great answer to your question

https://youtu.be/KjIeZ15T2l4

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121311434#Comment_121311434

The Sahara would get these speeds if it was south of this low as close to it as N France/Channel Islands are

It's proximity to a low not where the low is that governs impacts

Coastal parts fare worst as there no terrain resistance to break the wind

This low is closest to Nw France and Southern England

Highest winds on its South side

cheese sandwich

The UK shipping forecast is predicting force 12 hurricane winds in some areas

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/coast-and-sea/shipping-forecast

Dazler97

Storm's taking some shape now 962mb

Stormyhead

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121311474#Comment_121311474

I understand that the storms path is taking it towards France and southern England and missing us. My question was in relation to wind speeds in general. There have been deeper lows than this that have directly hit Ireland yet this one looks like it will produce sea level speeds in excess of anything Ireland has recorded.

squonk

Yup. Can just see the high cloud from it here now the post while in the Midwest.

adocholiday

A bit of a debate on Netweather as to whether or not a sting jet is forming on the back of the storm. This is something I have zero knowledge of but would really up the ante on an already powerful storm.

Meteorite58

Certainly dodged a very large bullet. Cornwall, Devon and along the Southern coastal areas look like they will get a huge hammering but especially Cornwall and along coastal areas of Britany, Normandy and Hauts-de-France. The Bay of Biscay will be like a Cauldron. Massive sea state. Coastal erosion along the S of England and NW, N France look inevitable. Big Winds across coastal Belgium and Holland. Flash flooding in Cornwall and Devon could be a big problem also. Could see thunderstorms also moving into the channel and through Biscay onto the French coasts.

I wonder will the surfers be tempted.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1719748768659095767

SouthWesterly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121311722#Comment_121311722

Of course they will. Who can resist a huge wave 😱

Robwindstorm

I wonder how will it compare to our February 1988 storm or December 1998 storm. It has more or less the same characteristics I think. I think the big storm in France was December 1999 and known as storm of the century. Interesting stuff to see what windspeeds unfold from this one. It's funny to have the Irish name with the fada on it.

Meteorite58

Nice close up of the Storm being highlighted on Meteociel, link below and link for wind gusts.

https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/satellite.php?mode=animation-infrarouge-noir-et-blanc-special

https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/vent-rafales.php

Dazler97

Yes the December 1999 storm low pressure was 961mb and had gusts of 161mph ,killing 110 and cost 15Billion euro

adocholiday

ECM throwing a spanner in the works and moving it South again with the centre passing directly over London. This would be much a much better outcome for South and South-east England. For reference, AROME, HARMONIE & GFS brings the centre over Peterborough, ICON Milton Keynes, ECM London, and UKMO Royal Tunbridge Wells. That's 160km between the northern-most and southern-most centres. Mad that we still have such a spread with the storm now more or less directly to our SW.

pauldry

The storm will likely impact Southern England fairly seriously with gusts in excess of 130kph, however the channel islands are facing 150kph gusts and a lot of damage. Could be very bad indeed there.

France NW also going to be pummelled.

bazlers

ECM wont be be correct in my humble opinion. Possibly a halfway house

Stormyhead

Putting aside the liklihood of damage and deaths, anyone else just a little disappointed that this is not hitting Ireland. We just dont seem to get the big storms of the 80s and 90s anymore.

SortingYouOut

Ophelia it was and it wasn't near as bad as the hype for some in the country. Many got battered and many were in red warning areas looking out at the leaves leaving the trees a bit early.

Mod Note: Post Edited to remove deleted post

SortingYouOut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121311924#Comment_121311924

I love a good belter of a storm when tucked in at home looking out the window. Can understand why some in more flood prone areas aren't the same but I completely get where you're coming from. I'm a giddy child come a big weather event. The Beast from the East was as close as i've come to childhoold Christmas joy since being a child.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Please see note at start of thread, off topic posts removed.

Please adhere to forum charter.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121311924#Comment_121311924

For this storm no I'm glad it's passing is For once another country gets the brunt of it , why do you sound so disappointed, if the worst was over Cork or the structural damage and downed power lines would be a major issue I mean where talking stronger than ophelia this storm could be 110mph gusts , think of all the clean up and all afterwards no thanks, but don't speak to soon it's still early in storm season between October and April that's around peck in my opinion

Pwindedd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121310982#Comment_121310982

I'm Kent bound from southern europe on a flight landing about 6pm tomorrow evening...

Well i was. Not sure how it's going to pan out now.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121311924#Comment_121311924

Mod Note: The provocative posting style is dragging the thread off topic and has the air of trolling and goading for reaction. Back on topic and less of the drama.

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121311924#Comment_121311924

Could be worse to come this season. I know what you are trying to say without putting words in your mouth i hope.

I guess its the wonder and awe of nature and how powerless we are against it. It can just root up trees in one swift blow and nothing we can do but look on in awe.

Unfurtunately to see this some will suffer tremendously.