Storm Ciaran :Associated weather effects, primarily flooding risks, Advisory 29th -02 Nov 2023

adocholiday

ECM downgrading it really, funnily enough it was the one that was going for a bigger event last week when the rest were showing the southerly move. Lets hope this time that the rest aren't setting the trend! Rainfall totals way down on the others and the highest gusts not really getting above 80. The models are all over the place on it for now, it's going to be another 24 hours before there's any certainty.

munsterlegend

There is some difference between the GFS and the ECM in terms of rainfall impact.

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121302485#Comment_121302485

The ECM is sticking with the southerly track, the 12z takes it further south than the 00z did whereas the GFS, ARPEGE, ICON and GEM all nudged it north to various degrees. It's one of those systems where a few miles deviation in its track makes a massive difference to the outcome.

aidanodr

This from @carlowweather ..

"Rainfall totals by Wednesday morning could be over 40mm in parts with flooding. That’s before #StormCiarán brings more rain later Wed/Thurs!"

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1719052211479535665

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121302467#Comment_121302467

The 12Z has upgraded the winds for early Weds in the SW for a time but yeah has downgraded the rainfall , such extreme opposites to the GFS ??

aidanodr

Pre Ciaran I know BUT for Rosslare with Ciaran rainfall so soon after this flooding, not good news I assume

https://twitter.com/byrne_padraig/status/1719012580402843688

aidanodr

Lots of flooding this avo and evening in Cork City, all detailed here .. unfortunately prepping the ground in a bad way for Ciaran. Over jazz weekend the city centre flooded also, likes of oliver plunkett street and the south mall.

(1) Cork Safety Alerts (@CorkSafetyAlert) / X (twitter.com)

I also see parts of midleton flooding now

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1719051558111825994

adocholiday

UKMO 12z also a downgrade on its 00z run in terms of precipitation but upgrades the wind gusts very slightly. Still some high totals from Cork to Wicklow but a lot less severe than the 00z. The 06z only goes to Wednesday so can't compare directly to that yet. ICON, UKMO and ARPEGE are all showing somewhat similar scenarios at the moment but still some strong variation in them overall.

Dazler97

So currently storm ciaràn is over the east coast of America doesn't look like Much but look at those temperature contrasts in America and Canada and that will amplifie the jet stream to some 230mph and its this that will pick the storm up and as it gets nearer to us it will cross north of the jet and its this that will cause it to deepen even further ,lots could happen between now and then but still one to keep a very close eye on

starlit

Kerry seems to be escaping the worst of the storms still getting heavy rain but looking likely Cork and the south east will bare the brunt of Storm Ciaran it’s hard to know how Kerry be affected the south of it more so. There is already a yellow warning for Kerry tomorrow and be raining Wednesday and Thursday but be windier Thursday I’m guessing based on windy.com app.

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121302588#Comment_121302588

4-5cm in East Cork with the ground as saturated as it is will not be pretty.....

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121302697#Comment_121302697

Oh agreed don't get me wrong I'm not saying it's a good outcome, just that it was less severe than on the 00z. It was also more for the east, with the top end in Wicklow dropping from 90mm to 60mm

Meteorite58

DOCARCH might come back form Canada in record time 😁

https://twitter.com/i/status/1718756406742962517

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1719079519695311308/photo/1

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121302766#Comment_121302766

Yes it's gonna boost flight times by 2 hours for some

bazlers

I take it this will push through fairly quickly compared to other slow moving fronts we have had lately? Thats if it does impact us.

squarecircles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121302887#Comment_121302887

STORM Ciaran will be slow moving.

pauldry

Most of this storm is too far South for any serious winds but there's a lot of rain in and around it so some parts of the South might see 40 or 50mm of rain. Don't think it warrants a red warning though. Orange is enough.

JanuarySnowstor

Icon follows ecm, weaker and further South. At this rate the possibility of a full miss to our South is back on the table! It's a bit exhausting, there might be a 200mph jetstream but boy is this low making hard work of it!!!

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121303034#Comment_121303034

Fingers crossed. I know most of us are weather enthusiasts here, but the country needs a break from the rain and ICON and ECM want to deliver that for us.

Dazler97

France of course is on alert ⚠️ for storm ciaràn, where in exposed spots 150km/h can be expected and 8 to 10 meter waves

JanuarySnowstor

And the gfs continues this evenings trend of a nudge South again. Ppn charts much less intense because of that. All a bit meh

Hairypoppins

Tonight's ecm is a non event

adocholiday

GFS still a big rain event for the East coast

Cluedo Monopoly

The good news is that the river waters have receded a fair amount.

For example Carrigaline is well below median flood levels. I worry more about sustained wet periods than sudden bursts. As a country we are good at dispersing heavy rain fast. Some drop since the floods...

Carrigaline (Ballea) ==> Realtime waterlevel

SaoPaulo41

Noob question, but of all the weather models which is most accurate/ reliable? If gfs is saying heavy rain, ecm non event,how can they be so different?

Oscar Bravo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121303493#Comment_121303493

For example a 50 or 100 mile difference in models can have a huge impact . in this case the further south and the low will keep most of the heavy rain with it. Small margins and headaches for the likes of met eireann when issuing warnings.

SaoPaulo41

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121303518#Comment_121303518

Thank you

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121303145#Comment_121303145

It's somewhat ironic that the very Irish named 'storm Ciarán' looks set to miss Ireland almost entirely now...but barrel into France instead.

I'd imagine a few interesting variants on the pronunciation have been heard on the French airwaves!

Meteorite58

Big adjustment from the GFS 18Z, has dropped the earlier huge amounts in Munster, now more in line with the European models. rainfall looks heaviest now along the S, SE, E and NE, could still get some high totals especially running off higher ground. Winds still just showing getting into Yellow warning at the most along coastal areas. Will be breezy to blustery overland but all looks manageable. For now no stormy weather over land.

ARPEGE Rainfall Accumulation and wind gusts probably a good average of the models for now.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121303524#Comment_121303524

Absolutely but since it's been named they keep it , they team up with the Spanish weather service for naming their own storms , since its to hit uk as well that's most likely why they didn't rename it