Storm Ciaran :Associated weather effects, primarily flooding risks, Advisory 29th -02 Nov 2023

Robwindstorm

I think this could be dangerous for South and Eastern parts of Ireland due to low pressure, onshore winds and torrential rain on already saturated ground and high level rivers. We appear to be avoiding the strongest winds but the northern flank of this storm is bad news for Cork and Wexford at least.

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Mod Note: Please stay on topic. There are other threads for various discussions on Climate, Met Eireann, General discussion etc. Please adhere to the forum charter. This is primarily a discussion about the science of Meteorology in relation to the adverse weather condition's over the coming days associated with Storm Ciaran. Off topic posts will be deleted.

Oscar Bravo

Later Wednesday and on Thursday, Storm Ciaran will bring falls of heavy rain and strong winds. Current indications suggest the heaviest rain and strongest winds will be in Munster and Leinster with flooding likely.

Additional Impacts:

Poor visibility,

Difficult/dangerous driving conditions

Valid: 14:40 Sunday 29/10/2023 to 23:30 Thursday 02/11/2023

Issued: 14:41 Sunday 29/10/2023

Oscar Bravo

Definitely one to watch for the South with more flooding looking likely

JanuarySnowstor

After the debacle at Midleton and Glanmire and even the Government asking why a red alert wasn't called, I'd say Cork, Waterford, Wexford will definitely see red during nighttime hours. The ppn falling might be orange level but the impacts on waterlogged ground could be significant!! Winds look severe enough along the coast most likely an orange for that also.

Away from the South Coast its a non event as you move up through the country. Let's see what the afternoon models show, not forgetting a yellow level warning for tomorrow will also be probable

Re tidal concerns in Cork City itself, this must surely be a worry aswell with an Easterly gale and high spring tides still occuring

If we do see a red warning I'd say it'll be called early, like tomorrow, to allow already flooded towns/business time to prepare

Planet X

After they, Glanmire et al., were badly flooded in 2012, 2015 etc etc. work got under way on flood defences……well, it seems that they talked about it. Not good enough really.

11 years later……..

Meteorite58

Well done Robwindstorm, just beat me to it!

The main stormy weather Weds and Thurs currently looks set to miss Ireland, possibly clipping coastal areas at different stages but looks for now within the Yellow Wind Warning criteria and breezy to blustery at times overland. Wet conditions over the coming days on top of saturated ground and river levels high along with projected heavy rain Tues, and Weds into Thurs gives the risk of localized flooding. Remains to be seen what warning level but could easily be Orange and high at that depending on how much rain falls in the coming days before the high rainfall amounts Weds/ Thurs.

Models are fairly consistent now on wind levels but there is still a wide range of rainfall accumulation amounts. Some models showing exceptionally heavy rain Weds into Thurs, GFS leading the way showing potentially more that 60 mm in less than 24 hrs in the South on top of previous days rainfall. Northern counties could see a lot of rain also. Met Eireanns Advisory covers well the conditions to watch out for. Position of the storm and other Low pressures and their associated fronts will be eagerly watched no doubt. How quick they move through and watching for the track of the triple point all key to levels of rainfall accumulations.

Tide times important too even though we are coming off the highest tides. Very deep low pressure tracking off the South and S,SE winds for a time will need to be factored in. Along the South especially Cork will need a close watch for flooding.

Charts are a guide only, very complex system will know more in the next few runs. I think this is will be a slow burner watching more for the risks from heavy rainfall over the coming days than from strong winds. A small nudge North would bring the SW, S, SE more into the stronger winds and bit away yet as we know, Normally these get downgraded but can go the other way too. For now according to the ARPEGEE we could get stronger winds from Tuesdays LP than form the named Storm.

Mav11

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121301163#Comment_121301163

I think that the problem with calling a red alert, is that emergency service council workers are not allowed out to clear drains and other blockages. Leads to further damage!!

StormForce13

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121301197#Comment_121301197

In 2012 the country was bankrupt. In 2015 the recovery was only beginning.

EU regulations require that all sorts of environmental surveys be carried out before any form of flood defences are allowed to proceed. I understand that various surveys were commissioned into the impact of flood defences on things like kingfishers, otters, badgers, and, for all I know, alligators. These all have to be advertised in the EU Journal so take a long time to be conducted. And then of course, came Covid!

And isn't it also true that, as always seems to be the case, a number of objections to proposed flood defences were lodged by bipedal mammals?

It's a shame that neither our Planning Regulations nor EU regulations stipulate that the effects of flooding on human beings must be given a higher priority!

I read somewhere that a significant contributory factor for the Glanmire flooding was that a key culvert was blocked by a dumped mattress, pram and other illegally dumped material - we can't blame Met Eireann for that one!

On the positive side, it's good to see that the flood defences in places like Bantry, Skibb and Bandon (all of which which took years to be completed) seem to have worked well.

igCorcaigh

Scary potential for NW France.

https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1718945308271349789?t=LonLtGfJB_skCNuT6APgeQ&s=19

JanuarySnowstor

This is no longer a French/English storm. It's an Irish one!!

On top of saturated ground, any rain will likely cause serious flooding

Robwindstorm

It really is the old fashioned type Atlantic storm that used to pass to our northwest in the 80s and 90s. They are very powerful storms on their southern flank so northwestern France is going to get some very high if not record breaking gusts. Interesting to follow this unfold .

JTMan

Shifting North.

https://twitter.com/UKWX_/status/1719020984856957111

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121302043#Comment_121302043

Just seen that on twitter myself , could be orange warnings for wind for the southeast and orange rain warnings being issued for the east, poor southern England may be in a red warning

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121302064#Comment_121302064

Regarding wind yes you are right. But what's very important for us is nowhere in Northwest Europe is showing heavier rainfall than South Munster! Across Kerry, Cork and Waterford a red warning is justified (orange level rain but for impact on water logged ground red) Interesting to see what Met Eireann do and how quickly they up the ante. The public think this is missing us to the South. Might be true for worst of the wind, but for torrential rain we are on the bullseye!

Szero

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121302064#Comment_121302064

Shift north is currently slight but could be the start of a stronger shift north, if that happens I bet we will see red alerts for the Cork/southeast area and orange warnings for east. Plus Government will need to do something, perhaps work from home where possible will be encouraged and non-essential journeys discouraged.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121302083#Comment_121302083

Well I'm not in the south or east I live in carrick in Leitrim so its to miss me but yes orange to red warning quitera for rainfall, I know enough to know that

SuperBowserWorld

Edit not on topic

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121302097#Comment_121302097

Yes absolutely 💯 governing will need to do something look at all the backlash they got when Cork flooded last week and met eirrean so that's why they issued an advisory

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121302117#Comment_121302117

how are we off topic ?

SuperBowserWorld

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121302159#Comment_121302159

I made a joke about needing a giant upside down Bertie Bowl to keep the rain off, which was off topic for this thread which is science and fact based. 😁

giveitholly

Least it is Halloween break for the schools so that takes a lot of cars off the roads

sonofenoch

With so many different storms named was only a matter of time till you had one named after yourself .....no weather expert here but take it from someone who knows, this one will be very windy 🤣

setanta1984

Is it thursday morning when this is most impactful in terms of flooding and disruption? It seems to pass by thursday afternoon, is that accurate? Wednesday should be ok? Trying to organise what days to avoid commuting thanks

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121302278#Comment_121302278

Depending on where you are but winds and rain picks up from Wednesday evening through to Thursday afternoon

Beechwoodspark

Will there be a red alert issued for Kildare does anyone know

pad199207

Disaster for some areas if it comes to fruition

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121302368#Comment_121302368

No red alerts are very rare. There's a chance across the far South because of heavy rain and likely impacts but it's all just us amateurs speculating tbh

Meteorite58

Big difference in rainfall predictions at this stage, wild difference between GFS and some of the Europeans although ARPEGE not far behind it.

GFS showing up to 90 mm in 24hrs with widespread 50 to 70mm?? That is a huge jump since the last run, can only wait and see what comes out later.

There is a trend forming I think of bringing the SE and E more into the high totals, some models showing huge totals in the NE also.

CirrusBusiness

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121302368#Comment_121302368

Depends on storm track by tomorrow evening/Wed. There is a shift north which needs to be watched carefully so warnings can go out early if required. Hoping the charts are just having a temporary wobble and by tomorrow things will be back showing this system passing south. Can really do without this with the ground totally saturated and still plenty of leaves on the trees if the stronger winds moved further north.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121302395#Comment_121302395

You’re talking Red warnings for the south and east there…. Huge rainfall

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121302419#Comment_121302419

That would be very serious if it came off like that, and yes could well be in a red warning in the South anyway but a fair bit of time to go yet, too much of a spread in the models yet, hopefully a bit of an outlier and will tone it down it next run.