Shannon LNG terminal plans rejected by ABP

plodder · 17-09-2023 6:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121117180#Comment_121117180

The cost of the interconnectors is paid for through the gas capacity charge that every gas meter point is billed for. The capacity charge will stay the same to pay for the ongoing cost of the interconnectors whether they are used or not. You could liken this to the PSO levy certainly.

The LNG terminal will charge a margin on the gas it imports to pay for the capital costs of the terminal.

The net result is that gas bills will go up to cover the extra cost. Depending on global LNG prices, the LNG operator may cream off a big profit.

That's not true. Wholesale gas prices are set by the UK market which we are connected to. Whether an LNG terminal exists here or not will have little influence on that, though it should contribute in some small way to the overall European market by increasing LNG supply and possibly lowering prices a bit. US LNG has resulted in lower gas prices in Europe not higher. The developers of this project would have funded their own capital cost through the substantial profit they would make because of high European gas prices.

There is no financial benefit in this terminal for consumers. There might be the benefit of ‘security of supply’ in a military situation (very little use really) or in a global supply crunch (no use at all really) and the opportunity to spend a few hundred million euros more of gas consumers’ money to build storage.

While we won't be paying higher prices, they won't be noticeably lower either. It's in the area of energy security where the benefit really lies. It'll only take a prolonged Winter cold spell over North Western Europe to really put gas supplies all over Northern Europe under pressure. And we're at the end of the line, and at the mercy of the UK in particular.

At a certain point we have to stop spending money on infrastructure which has no real long term future.

There's no alternative to gas backup for renewables at the moment. The most promising prospect is hydrogen, but that can make use of the same kind of infrastructure as LNG.

antoinolachtnai · 17-09-2023 7:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121123005#Comment_121123005

If there is a squeeze on gas supplies in Europe. us having an LNG terminal will make no difference whatsoever. it won’t give us privilileged access to cheap gas. There is loads of LNG capacity planned in Europe now. It’s a completely different situation from three years ago. There is no easy money to be made here.

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-huge-excess-lng-liquefied-natural-gas-import-capacity-expert-warn/

The interconnector is paid for out of the capacity charge. Consumers will have to pay for it whether it is used or not.

A degasification terminal is no use for storing hydrogen.

Marcusm · 17-09-2023 9:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121116075#Comment_121116075

Germany’s first LNG terminal got approval in 2022 as a result of the Russian crisis. They are starting with temporary floating structures. In fact, the impact on Germany (which has huge amounts of gas storage) is a good example of why ireland should have some independent importation facility. At best, Corrib provide 30% of our supply and then only for the next 7 years. The U.K. inter connector hits the island twice, IIRC, but could easily be disrupted in the event of a reduction in supply. We are at the edge of the continent with limited access to supply. Storage (whether in Kinsaleel field or elsewhere) and an independent importation facility should be prioritised. Gas use will not disappear as we have greater availability of renewables albeit that it might moderate. The gas power stations/generators being built have already ramped up from c. 400m to approx 1bn. Let a US fund take the construction cost price risk but only allow them to recover a fixed agreed sun.

Marcusm · 17-09-2023 9:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121123413#Comment_121123413

Your pricing comments are not correct because that is actually determined by whether reliance is placed on the spot or forward market. The structure of the U.K. gas market of which Ireland is an effective offshoot is based on spot prices with no essential benefit from long term supply contracts. Access to a direct importation terminal could open up the possibility of a gas pricing market on longer term fundamentals. Whether that delivers a cost advantage would depend on the expertise employed but it is not correct to say that it is irrelevant. The Irish and U.K. market prices ramped up substantially quicker than those on the continent for this very reason.

plodder · 17-09-2023 9:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121123413#Comment_121123413

If there is a squeeze on gas supplies in Europe. us having an LNG terminal will make no difference whatsoever.

That makes no sense. If there is a squeeze in Europe, us having an LNG terminal will mean we can compete for gas at the market rate and have it supplied directly through our own terminal, as opposed to the UK supplying their own users (at the same market rate) and just leaving us at the back of the queue.

it won’t give us privilileged access to cheap gas. There is loads of LNG capacity planned in Europe now. It’s a completely different situation from three years ago. There is no easy money to be made here

This whole argument would make more sense if I was saying the state should make this investment, but it's actually the private sector saying - hey, there's this opportunity for us to supply gas from an alternative source, and we'll pay for the investment, we'll take the risk, because there is so much profit to be made in your limited market for gas. So, if there's too much LNG capacity then that's their problem not ours. But, of course, a lot of this capacity is floating terminals that can be moved from one place to another if no longer needed. The economic argument is nonsensical. This is just an ideological stance against fracked gas.

17-09-2023 9:35pm

i am beyond confused how a private company spending their money to give us LNG storage to increase our energy security and independence is being claimed to be bad

antoinolachtnai · 17-09-2023 9:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121123773#Comment_121123773

if there is a gas shortage as you describe we will not be trying to outbid other European countries for gas. That would be a ridiculous thing to do.

if we have a tanker of LNG we can direct it to a UK port or indeed another EU port and the gas will then be shipped through the transmission network to Ireland.

I understand this is unintuitive but this is the reality of how the gas network works.

The private terminal would result in gas bills (bills not wholesale prices) going up for gas consumers and prices going up for electricity consumers. This terminal is not magically ‘free’. .

prunudo · 17-09-2023 9:54pm

Can the interconnecters be used either direction? Can flow be reversed in one? Is the real issue, that down the line, people are afraid a private LNG terminal could also be used to supply the UK or further afield. Don't really see why this would be a bad idea either btw, just trying to rationalise the negativity against construction.

17-09-2023 9:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121123912#Comment_121123912

Are you listening to yourself? Gas and electricity prices keep climbing because Russia cut the gas to Europe in a fit and supplies are more scarce.

but having more access would make prices rise? Are you for real? Yeah we will probably end up paying something for the Terminal over the next number of years. But the company also had contracts with EirGrid for supplying the national grid so the benefits are still there for us.

Just stop and realise what you’re opposing and you will understand why it’s ridiculous.

17-09-2023 10:05pm

All this "panic" just enforces the position that we need to get gas out of our power/heating systems ASAP.

antoinolachtnai · 17-09-2023 10:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121123935#Comment_121123935

How will is building an LNG terminal make supplies of gas any less scarce when Europe has more LNG terminals coming online than it knows what to do with?

I didn’t say that it would make prices rise. It would make bills rise. What is this about Eirgrid? Building an electricity plant? These are just capacity contracts. The developers can and will bid to build this if it is commercially workable. It doesn’t require an LNG terminal.

The problem here is that the people proposing this are planning to pay for it with energy consumers’ money, not their own. Why waste consumers’ money on something that won’t bring them any benefit that anybody can explain, other than a warm fuzzy feeling?

17-09-2023 10:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121123976#Comment_121123976

unlike what some would have you believe it’s not as simple as just realising the benefits of renewable energies but that we have to have capacity to harvest and store. This will take time.

however while we wait I suppose we are just to endure the ever colder winters.

antoinolachtnai · 17-09-2023 10:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121123929#Comment_121123929

As it happens the interconnector cannot be reversed. But even if the flow could be reversed , LNG sourced gas would never ever flow in the easterly direction for the simple reason that Britain and Western Europe have loads of LNG terminals of their own.

prunudo · 17-09-2023 10:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121123976#Comment_121123976

And shoulder vast amounts of the population with further debt to retro fit houses that aren't suitable for electric heating. I live in a house, built '07, c1 ber, big mortgage, by all accounts its not viable to install a heat pump, so whats the alternative that I'm meant to rush to asap.

If wind generation continues to grow, electric vehicles become the norm, why the rush to remove natural gas from heating houses.

antoinolachtnai · 17-09-2023 10:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121124030#Comment_121124030

The rush is that natural gas will get very expensive as carbon pricing drives it up. At present the carbon price on home has is only half what it is for electricity and industry (which is set through an auction). As the cap on emissions is reduced prices will go higher and higher.

prunudo · 17-09-2023 10:31pm

So its an administrative issue that can be amended. They're essentially pricing people out of the ability to heat their homes without a clear alternative.

Pekarirska · 17-09-2023 10:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121120875#Comment_121120875

Fair play to you!

Argumentative and clear reply supported with numbers. Great to know how Iceland gets their electricity from renewables only ;-)

Wish more posts were like yours and thank you for your time!

antoinolachtnai · 17-09-2023 10:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121124064#Comment_121124064

It’s not an administrative issue, no. It’s a legal issue and there is a strong democratic mandate from member states and the Parliament. The government in fairness is trying to make it more viable to switch. In the end though, homeowners will have to take some responsibility.

We could use the cost of an LNG terminal to help householders upgrade tens of thousands of homes.

18-09-2023 12:02am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121124030#Comment_121124030

Talk to me about what your plan is for when the gas runs out or becomes too expensive?

prunudo · 18-09-2023 12:09am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121124282#Comment_121124282

You were the one that wants us to do something asap, so tell me what this great viable alternative that I'm meant to heat my house with. And this isn't a solo problem, there hundreds of thousands, if not over million homes that need to move away from fossil fuel heating. What is this great plan that you are so keen for everyone to follow.

18-09-2023 12:13am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121124296#Comment_121124296

You answered that already earlier yourself

Cordell · 18-09-2023 12:30am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121124282#Comment_121124282

What about when our sun goes supernova?

Gas and oil will eventually run out, and if by that time we don't have a plan we will be fked. End of civilization fked. But it's crazy that we choose to fk ourselves now out of fear of what may happen in the future. We have a short term problem, and we do have a short term solution. The sane thing to do would be to use the sort term solution to buy us time to look for alternative long term solutions.

antoinolachtnai · 18-09-2023 7:26am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121124329#Comment_121124329

What exactly is this short term problem that we have that a commercial LNG terminal is the solution to?

prunudo · 18-09-2023 11:27am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121124304#Comment_121124304

So your solution, which you want to move to asap, is to indebt a large proportion of the population further by installing an inefficient energy system. Doesn't sound very green does it? Until new tech arrives it is pointless installing heat pumps as a heating solution in the vast majority of houses that currently use fossil fuel.

18-09-2023 11:38am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125181#Comment_121125181

I'd love to see how you work out something with a COP of 1.5-4 is inefficient when a gas boiler has a cop of 0.9

Either way, carbon tax will ensure switching is the smarter financial choice

Did you see, the govt also provide 100% funding for those less well off?

Cordell · 18-09-2023 11:55am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121124530#Comment_121124530

Short term problem is our dependance on fossil fuel, especially natural gas for home heating and electricity, and it's price and availability and the fact Russia controls a lot of the supply. Short term solution is to use LNG instead of piped gas.

plodder · 18-09-2023 11:56am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121123986#Comment_121123986

I didn’t say that it would make prices rise. It would make bills rise.

How exactly would a private company building an LNG terminal "make bills rise"?

What exactly is this short term problem that we have that a commercial LNG terminal is the solution to?

It's more a medium term problem than a short term problem. When the Corrib field runs down over the next ten years, we will be completely reliant on gas imported from the UK for electricity generation as the backup to renewables. We used to have a very diversified system, with oil, gas, coal, with oil and plenty of stored or stockpiled oil and coal. Is the world much more politically stable now, that we don't need a diversified and dependable fuel supply? Or is the plan to rely more on Moneypoint (coal or oil if it gets converted) and the data centres using their own diesel generators? How will that work out for CO2 emissions?