Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Autumn/ Winter 2023

.Donegal.

Status Yellow - Thunderstorm warning for Cavan, Monaghan, Meath, Westmeath

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Isolated thunderstorms for a time this evening bringing frequent lightning and potential for spot flooding.

Meteorite58

More convective showers and thunderstorms possible tomorrow from the early afternoon. So looking like the highest chance in an area that includes the Midlands, SE, E and NE. Isolated in nature perhaps but maybe a bit more organised later in the afternoon especially along the SE, E and NE with peak diurnal heating where DPs look set to get into the high teens , could see around 26Cor so in the SE..A nice convergence along the coasts could see thunderstorms peak there in the afternoon.

Soundings for Dublin and around Wexford showing impressive potential. If a storm breaks out could see spot flooding, pwat of over 30mm..

Thinking Sunday could be quite active.

DOCARCH

Very thundery looking skies in Greystones this morning. Showers in the south Irish Sea, but, no sign of any sparks.

Oscar Bravo

Tomorrow could be interesting, close eye on charts later

highdef

The cap is very very close to being broken in Longford.

Photos taken two minutes apart.

Dazler97

Warnings ⚠️ have been issued for tomorrow

hawkwing

Distant rumbles, SE Tipp.Showing on the radar now

highdef

Several cells flying up to my south and southeast, viewing from Longford. Humidity has gone very high here.

BorneTobyWilde

Lashing in Kilkenny, few rumbles of thunder

Dazler97

More warnings ⚠️ issued until 9pm

Meteorite58

Not many sferics detected today .

igCorcaigh

Tomorrow looking better @Meteorite58?

(for Cork City especially?? 🙏😁)

Meteorite58

Temps getting up to the low 20's, possibly up to 24C in a a few places with DP's into the high teens so muggy tomorrow. Front and trough aiding the instability and providing the moisture source along with some home grown convection. I think the AROME highlights well the approaching trough ( I think ) moving towards the center of the country in a line roughly from SW to NE where it meets an area of convergence during peak heating in the afternoon where we could see the most activity then will drift eastwards. Will be interesting to see if thunderstorms come ashore maybe in the S or SE early morning. Storms could break out anywhere but models showing the S and SE earlier in the day and later spreading to more counties and possibly peaking in the area of convergence highlighted below before travelling E.

Looks like an ever increasing negative tilted upper trough also which aids development.

Very warm moisture laden atmosphere, Upper trough tilting on its axis but not a lot of Deep layer shear but some vorticity available, not a lot of low shear but subtle converging winds helping lift late afternoon/ early evening at it's peak.

Early morning in the S /SE should give a fair indication of how much instability in the atmosphere and show more the potential for the day. Met Eireann quick out of the traps with widespread warnings.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121090586#Comment_121090586

Would think so, more instability from trough and fronts, very humid again. Could be drifting ashore from early in the morning , will see.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121090719#Comment_121090719

Yes it's looking good for me for thunderstorms bring them on 😀

Larbre34

That satellite simulation is hilarious. Most of GB north of Birmingham going to be wiped out in Tornadoes!

highdef

Cameras and drone at the ready for any storms tomorrow at my location in Longford

Larbre34

However....

There are some serious cells blooming off Devon and Cornwall already. Bodes well for Ireland on the frontal zone tomorrow. Funnel clouds and perhaps local tornadic activity a strong possibility.

In fact, the storm warning may become Orange due to frequent lightning and risk of widespread disruption from it.

Oscar Bravo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121090816#Comment_121090816

Hope to be enjoying lunch at the Rustic Inn nearby you

Dank Janniels

Is that Convective Weather site still going? Think sum1 said on here afew months ago they stopped doing it

JanuarySnowstor

Very difficult to forecast storms, some should see something quite severe!!

But to assume its a given is not so, they will be hit and miss with many areas avoiding them altogether.

With an eye on Cork, I think we could strike it lucky but after lunch is favoured to me like 2 to 4pm

It would be nice to see this one go out with a bang, it's certainly warm enough!!

.Donegal.

Yellow - Thunderstorm Warning for Antrim, Armagh, Down, Fermanagh, Tyrone, Derry(western areas of 3 western counties excluded)

Some large areas of rain are likely but many parts will see modest rainfall amounts. However, embedded intense rainfall may bring some very large rainfall totals with 30-50 mm in an hour or less possible and perhaps 70 mm or more in a few hours for unlucky locations. At the same time frequent lightning and large hail will be additional hazards.

spookwoman

Lots of activiy way off the coast of Cork

mcburns07

Doesn’t seem to be much forecasted for East Cork today. Looks like it’ll hold mostly dry.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121091491#Comment_121091491

?? It's exploding off the Cork coast right now. Thunder is hit and miss, but it won't stay dry today

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121091503#Comment_121091503

Showers will be hit and miss too? Weather apps not predicting anything for here anyway…

Comhrá

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121091526#Comment_121091526

I wouldn't put too much reliance on weather apps in today's scenario. Thunderstorm development is fairly random and could occur practically anywhere.

Even the best forecaster will struggle to forecast the time and location of a storm cell which can pop up in the space of 30 mins.

DOCARCH

Quite a clump of activity approaching the SE coast.

typhoony

Looking good for today east of the Midlands especially

Elmer Blooker

something big brewing looking south west, west Dublin in the firing line.