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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Autumn/ Winter 2023
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TORRO keeping an eye on events to see if there is a repeat of the very active weather that went through associated with Gerrit.
The post frontal airmass looks like producing some thunderstorms along Atlantic coasts with unstable troughs approaching the Irish coast, they may be mostly over water or next to the coasts where instability might be at its most , will see again if a few migrate inland. I'm interested for later in the night/ early morning also to see if there is an uptick in activity especially around the West as the wrap around occluded front, close to the systems center, moves in over Ireland. Could be gusty then also or even squally showers for a time.
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Big convection here near the Kerry coasts, gusty and gone very dark , expecting sleet or hail from this one moving in over us.
Not a bad first half of the day with some blue skies, biting winds though and increasing showers now look set to move in. Will see if it gets active down my way.
Very heavy rain and hail shower now, gone incredibly dark.
Lightning seems to be dying out in the W for now.
EDIT: spoke too soon, sparking a bit offshore again. Fair chance of continuing into the night and early morning. Got a big thunderstorm here about 06.30 from Gerrit, very loud with lightning nearby.. my wife and son went around the house disconnecting the pc, tv etc ......I slept through the whole thing 😁
Post edited by Meteorite58 on3 -
it's in the warning all right.
Status Yellow - Wind and Rain warning for Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Waterford, Galway, Mayo, Wexford
Met Éireann Weather Warning
Southwest winds will be strong and gusty at times coupled with heavy rain and thundery showers.
Potential Impacts:
• Surface flooding
• Wave overtopping
• Loose debris, objects displaced
• Difficult travelling conditions
Valid: 02:00 Saturday 30/12/2023 to 23:00 Saturday 30/12/2023
Issued: 11:00 Friday 29/12/2023
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A 260-mile stretch of Britain has been slapped with a tornado warning lasting until the early hours of Sunday by a specialist forecaster that predicts cyclones. Analysts at the Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) have warned that much of England and the entirety of Wales should brace for 'severe thunderstorms' that could spin out 'isolated tornadoes', gusts of up to 70mph and 2cm hailstones.
Map shows swathe of Eire too!
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Approaching front with a relatively high Theta E reading might get a bit convective and unstable this evening/ tonight as it nears the W ( over relatively cool SST's ) , maybe some sporadic /isolated thunderstorms moving inland and around the S or SE coasts and some heavy localised embedded rain in the frontal passage as the upper trough and associated cold pool with increasing low and deep shear moving in over Ireland. Best chance along Atlantic counties but hare to pin point.
Just a side note to see how the AROME performs showing some activity possible in the W or NW extending across to the NE in the form of heavy rain and possibly getting electrified,will see.
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