What do you think the Winter of 23 to 24 will be like?

AMKC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121180577#Comment_121180577

It's a lovely day but it's too warm. Needs to be about 12 degrees and it would be perfect.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121180579#Comment_121180579

I'm sure he is basing it on the fact that more often then not these days temperatures are above average. Today being a perfect example. More warmth likely for the next while. All told doesn't fill me with any confidence for this winter.

Loughc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121180579#Comment_121180579

Nope. Based off all upcoming trends. All trends indicate an above average temperature range for winter.

SouthWesterly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121180773#Comment_121180773

If it's bucketing sleet and snow all winter I will come and hunt you down for lying to me. ..time to dust off the suncream 🤣

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121180728#Comment_121180728

Why is 12° perfect. Seems rather chilly to me to be enjoyable.

Dazler97

I think we'll have a slow start to winter mild November with wet and windy spells at times ,December will see more high pressure so frosts and ice at times , January will probably be the coldest month with snow at times , February will be slightly milder than January but more in the way of frosts and more potentially windy spells and if I can for March it will be average , all predictions of course

nacho libre

I would love it if this winter we had a potent northerly like we had way back in December 2000. Polar lows galore and a foot of snow in parts when it was all over. However It would not shock me if this winter is snow free. I think January 2024 could have an exceptionally mild period.

sryanbruen

CanSIPS October update for winter hot off the press and again it's going for a very blocked winter with a southerly tracking jet stream. The January and especially February anomalies would be conducive to cold and snowy months. Have to ask once more, what is this model and the others from last month's runs seeing that we don't..

Wonder if any others will hold sway with their blocking pattern with this month's runs. We shall know by mid-week next week. Not that they're of any use in determining how this winter is going to play out. It's just interesting to ponder.

nacho libre

There was a post on netweather a few days ago explaining why that might be. Still I just don't get these long range going for prolonged blocking with a strong el nino taking hold. In any case after this summer's washout there is no way I am taking these seriously, even if mogreps comes on board.

zell12

Milder than usual

Tombo2001

Fun fact = we've already had more rain in Dublin in 2023 than in the whole of 2022 or 2021.

I 'predict' a wet and mild winter, my prediction being based on the fact that most of our winters are wet and mild, and the trend is for them to become wetter and also milder. So I am going for the 'prediction' of wet and mild.

I am also predicting that it will be cloudy/ wet on the morning of Dec 21, and that once again there be a disappointed crowd in Newgrange.

Loughc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121185806#Comment_121185806

joe.ie have spoken. The beast from the east returns to bring us snow for months. 😂😂😂😂

Honest to god these f**kheads post the same three weather headlines a year;

1. Heatwave to hit Ireland for months
2. Beast from the east returns
3. snowmaggedon

Im sick of their drivel

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121183879#Comment_121183879

I know charts at that range are just for fun but that canSIPs charts is showing a very positive NAO so hardly blocked.

But as I’ve already said just for fun and not to be taken seriously.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121189462#Comment_121189462

I think you need to re-read the charts Elmer. Huge positive anomaly in high latitudes and southerly tracking jet stream. You might be referring to the Hs and Ls? The Azores High and Icelandic Low will always be there, just a matter of them getting displaced which they are - particularly the latter.

Meanwhile, here's a very positive NAO from the CFSv2.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121188871#Comment_121188871

James Madden back at it again for another year. Moving along..

Lewis_Benson

Oh I'd say now it will be wet damp drizzly conditions, followed by sunny cloudy hail type weather, and a bit of frost mixed in for good measure.

I'd say you could even get a forest fire at any minute.

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121189484#Comment_121189484

after looking at the extreme left of the chart I now see low pressure over the Mediterranean which is a requirement for wintry weather in our parts instead of Greece.

Don’t we need the Azores high to disappear in winter in order to get a decent cold spell? Never seen a cold spell with the Azores high in situ.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121189605#Comment_121189605

Unfortunately correct there with regards to a decent cold spell and Azores High. Mind the fact it's only a whole month average and if we looked at non-anomaly maps for past months in terms of MSLP or z500, there's very very few months probably where would see average pressure being notably low around the Azores (below 1015 hPa). Likes of only December 2010 probably have done that as high pressure there is the norm.

Another valid interpretation of the chart in my opinion would be the fact it's not especially low around the Azores means Ireland could more often than not find itself on the periphery of cold easterly winds despite the block to the north and Genoa low. Think we're well used to that though at this stage.. Alternatively if the block could hold sway it would perhaps bring some very snowy scenarios with low pressure being forced to undercut, Midlands and mountains would be primed... not the east coast though.

Many different case scenarios that would possibly entail.

sryanbruen

October ECM update is much more in line with what I expect based on everything described in this thread. Gone is the blocking signal from its September update. Instead it parks a large area of below average pressure over western Europe which would bring very wet and mild conditions through the winter. With the sea temperatures, I'd even say this could be an extremely wet winter scenario should it verify - not to be taken seriously at this point! It's only one run and we're two months away.

pauldry

I think this Winter will be mostly mild and wet but there will be a few brief cold shots I'd be confident. The whole Atlantic will be very active compared to last Winter so rain clearing to wintry showers could be a common forecast later in the season.

nacho libre

The Pv seems to be in the east in the next week or so hence the colder turn, of course it will take its up normal resident in Greenland just in time for winter. I think with the relatively warm sea temperatures we will struggle to get snow this winter unless we get a potent cold airmass. I am struggling to see how that will happen if we have a positive NAO, but sometimes it can happen like in February 1991.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121197346#Comment_121197346

It would be nice to get a cold shot from the east in January preferably but unlikely that will happen. NW’y good for snow in your neck of the woods though.

Gonzo

The UK finished with the warmest September on record this year, a 17c CET and when you look at the top 10 warmest Septembers on record all of them were followed by a mild, very mild or non eventful winter so that alone doesn't bode well for this winter. We also have very warm sea surface temperatures so expect cool winter events to be more marginal than usual unless we get a direct hit long fetch blast from the north-east or east. For much of Leinster and Munster I am expecting another snowless winter.

Loughc

Looking down the barrel at the mildest October on record as well. Can only see one outcome for winter a very mild winter. Great for heating bills though.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121215788#Comment_121215788

Yeah a dirty mild winter looks odds on. Perhaps a colder turn in January but we always think that and it never transpires.

Not so sure it will be a stormy winter like a lot of people are thinking. I fear another euro high with bland mild weather. Some would love that with low heating bills but not for me.

I just hope central and Eastern Europe go into the freezer, don’t want them to be affected by our mild muck as well.

nacho libre

It would be nice to have this in peak winter! It won't feel too bad at this time of year .

mcriot29

Okay, it's time to take a stab at LRF for winter 2023-24:###  I got this from net weather Roger J Smith post #####

I am expecting a better than average chance of snow and cold episodes due to somewhat elevated blocking potential, and this will apply to all segments of winter. I don't foresee a blockbuster top ten sort of outcome (even 2009-10 was barely close to that anyway) but it could be a "reasonable" winter like perhaps 2011-12 was, with one or two memorable spells. 

No doubt in this climate regime there are bound to be some milder spells in the mix so I would not be looking for CET values much better than 0.5 to 1.0 below recent normals or around 1961-1990 normals. I have the feeling that many would settle for this given the generally poor performance of many recent winters. 

One factor that encourages me is the type of El Nino expected, which has similarities to 2009-10. Another factor is that most if not all regions of North America look set for a mild Pacific-dominated winter, which can be correlated with European cold (on the principle that it cannot be above normal in all regions of the hemisphere at the same time). Interior western regions of NA could see persistent high pressure leading to inversion cold locally.

Another encouraging factor is that July was cool, and a third significant index is a high lunar declination range (near its peak of 29 deg) which is correlated with blocking and high amplitude ridge-trough formations (Bryson, 1950; Lamb, 1975, as cited in Lamb's work, verified in my research). 

In terms of actual spells of weather, I would be looking for best blocking potential around full moons (when lunar declination is in its highest range of values). Of course you could get on the wrong side of a block and see it turning very mild, but with any luck some colder blocking patterns will emerge around full moons which occur near the ends of each month in winter 2023-24. The actual northern declination max will be after full moon in Nov, concurrent in Dec, and earlier in Jan-Feb. A particularly stormy signal would be associated with the opposite end of this lunar declination cycle, new moons around 10th to mid-months. 

Let's revisit this in April, but I would expect the verdict on winter 2023-24 to be, a mixture of all sorts of weather patterns with a better than average performance for cold and snow. Parts of Scotland could be very cold in this pattern as the storm track will often be closer to southern England. I would expect Wales, midlands and East Anglia to do well for snowfall, as well as onshore flow into Yorkshire and northeast England. 

A caveat would be that any heavy falls of snow are likely to melt rapidly leading to elevated flood potential, also I would not be surprised if there were heavy rainfalls with some events, also leading to flood potential. 

Ireland may be closer to frontal boundaries in general and could see a lot of mixed precip zones and foggy, cool spells that may be more sunny or clear further east. 

The outcome I would least expect would be anticyclonic and dry as we saw in some recent winter months but that could develop in late February or march as the declination peaks move away from tidal peaks and induce a lower energy multi-cycle regime. 

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sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273431#Comment_121273431

This is MT's post for anyone unaware who Roger J Smith is on NW.

bazlers

I think we will have a good shot of having a cold christmas week. Especially closer to new year. Just going by statistics more than anything.

Also if todays scenarios becore a trend for the winter, during the colder synoptics some areas on the boundary have potential for a big accumulations.

M.T. Cranium

Yes, I did post that; oddly, the NW icons came out extremely large in that block copy, they are just letter sized in the original.

I posted an edited version in the daily forecast here on monday, more specific to Ireland. In general I am predicting a lot of messy frontal boundary type of weather with a few intervals of cold from blocking patterns that will probably be fairly frequent but not strong enough to dominate even in northern regions of Britain, you could say a colder version of the regime we have seen in the interval since the early October warm spell broke down. I expect heavy precip will be the main feature of winter 2023-24. No doubt some very mild days will be in the mix at times when the blocking is relaxed or situated too far east. Variable temperature trends may result in averages near normal values. This scenario does not rule out one or two heavy snowfalls and naturally the east and north would be favoured. I would also say a higher than random chance of flooding rainfalls in the south, probably before the halfway point of met winter (mid January).