What do you think the Winter of 23 to 24 will be like?
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Here you go! Buy a warm jumper its going to get cold :-)
The Thermosphere Climate Index is on the verge of setting a Space Age record for cold, which reflects the historic low in solar activity in the current cycle.
So, recent data has proven that temperatures in the uppermost portion of the atmosphere vary substantially, in parallel with solar activity. Recent research proposes a mechanism by which these changes can have a significant effect on weather patterns in the lower atmosphere. While these changes in scientific consensus may not come close to the importance of the refinements of Newtonian mechanics made by Einstein early in the 20th century, they do, at the very least, add scientific credibility to the forecast methodology.
Changes in the Earth’s orbit around the sun and changes in the tilt and wobble of the Earth’s axis can lead to cooling or warming of the Earth’s climate because they change the amount of energy our planet receives from the sun. These changes, known as Milankovitch cycles
When the moon is high in the sky, it creates bulges in the planet’s atmosphere that creates imperceptible changes in the amount of rain that falls below.
New University of Washington research to be published in Geophysical Research Letters shows that the lunar forces affect the amount of rain – though very slightly.
“As far as I know, this is the first study to convincingly connect the tidal force of the moon with rainfall,” said corresponding author Tsubasa Kohyama, a UW doctoral student in atmospheric sciences.
Kohyama was studying atmospheric waves when he noticed a slight oscillation in the air pressure. He and co-author John (Michael) Wallace, a UW professor of atmospheric sciences, spent two years tracking down the phenomenon.
Satellite data over the tropics, between 10 degrees S and 10 degrees N, shows a slight dip in rainfall when the moon is directly overhead or underfoot. The top panel shows the air pressure, the middle shows the rate of change in air pressure, and the bottom shows the rainfall difference from the average. The change is 0.78 micrometers, or less than one ten thousandth of an inch, per hour.University of Washington
Air pressure changes linked to the position of the moon was first detected in 1847, and temperature in 1932, in ground-based observations. An earlier paper by the UW researchers used a global grid of data to confirm that air pressure on the surface definitely varies with the position of the moon.
“When the moon is overhead or underfoot, the air pressure is higher,” Kohyama said.
Their new paper is the first to show that the moon’s gravitational tug also puts a slight damper on the rain.
When the moon is overhead, its gravity causes Earth’s atmosphere to bulge toward it, so the pressure or weight of the atmosphere on that side of the planet goes up. Higher pressure increases the temperature of air parcels below. Since warmer air can hold more moisture, the same air parcels are now farther from their moisture capacity.
Si Deus Nobiscum Qui Contra Nos
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Here's the first look at December and January from the August update of the C3S seasonal models. These are just for fun, they are NOT to be taken seriously in any way. Their skill is very low which of course makes sense as it's such a long time away.
December shows a tendency towards higher pressure in the high latitudes with low pressure across the UK & Ireland and much of Europe. This looks to me like a very unsettled month with the possibility of cold outbreaks but the main thing is wet. I'm thinking months like December 1978 and 2000 for example, much of those months were very wet especially in the south and east. However, they both ended with cold outbreaks because of blocking. I'm only using these as examples of what I interpret here, doesn't mean 2023 would be the same if it were to verify this way.
The blocking signal to the north gets significantly stronger in January and is placed over Greenland. NAO looks very negative and pressure is low to the east of Europe, however there's a lot of white in between. This either means no signal or average pressure which for us is low and Iberia is high in January. So I suspect this would be a more westerly signal than you would think. I think of 2018-19 when I look at this anomaly which had a lot of blocking but it was never in the right place and one of those places was Spain.
The latest CFSv2 for January 2024 could not be more different to some of what the C3S have said. It shows the Atlantic onslaught unleashed with southwesterly winds all the way from the Canaries. It looks very December 2015 I got to say. That was the last strong El Niño too..
The CFSv2 changes daily whilst the others shown above run once a month.
Post edited by sryanbruen onPhotography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
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