What do you think the Winter of 23 to 24 will be like?

AMKC

I think it will be very wet and mild. I am hoping it's a mild winter anyway.

Jim_Hodge

What do you base that forecast on? My crystal ball doesn't show that far forward.

I'd hope for dry and mild but who knows at this stage?

AMKC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120901332#Comment_120901332

Oh just guessing and because of the state of the Summer we are getting. Someone else I was talking to thinks it could be a cold winter.

BagofWeed

Rain will probably be the dominant weather condition.

HeidiHeidi

It will either be cold, or mild.

It will probably rain a lot.

sryanbruen

The winter thread gets earlier every year 😅 based on El Niño expected to become strong, think it's a pretty safe bet that it'll be mild and Atlantic driven. Ok it doesn't take an expert to guess that.

The easterly QBO is downwelling at the moment and this is said to increase the likelihood of a weakened jet stream. However, the link is tenuous at best in my opinion and is an "overrated" teleconnection. I don't rate it at all.

The North Atlantic SSTs are what I place most emphasis on for winter thoughts but it's far far too early for those as we are in July and will need to see towards late November. If I were to say just for the sake of this, there's well above average sea temperatures over towards Newfoundland with cooler than average near Greenland. This could lead to an enhanced westerly gradient and would be favourable for explosive cyclogenesis, particularly if cold air were to hit those seas off North America.

The one thing we can be certain of is that there'll be plenty of hyperbole and reasons like X, Y and Z people will use to say it's going to be a cold winter when they mean nothing. How many of these mentioned will we see?

pauldry

I reckon mild wet and stormy which only brief colder interludes. A few dry mild spells too.

Atlantic Dawn

Old Moore sez heavy snow in December, I shall enjoy that 😀

Gonzo

This will probably be another very mild and wet winter with Christmas being especially mild. A winter similar to July 2023 just knock off a few degrees and cut the hours of daylight by half. A few short lived cool spells from the north/north-west with wintry showers in the north-west but overall a mostly mild and wet winter.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058306631/what-do-you-think-the-winter-of-23-to-24-will-be-like

I assume this is something you picked out of your arse and not in the slightest bit based on anything scientific?

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120901630#Comment_120901630

Hard to disagree with any of that as much as I want cold and snow.

We can be 100% certain that Christmas will be mild anyway!

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120901630#Comment_120901630

Unfortunately I think we will struggle to get even that scenario you outline this winter due to the warm ssts. Unless we get an exceptionally cold airmass, like the one M.T. Cranium was kind enough to bestow on us all the way from Canada back in 2010, then this winter is going to be very poor for snow. As well as that we all know a strong il nino is a disaster for our snow chances too. This winter could be like one of those nightmare snowless winters we had back in the early 90s with temperatures of 14-15 degrees during January. Now I just hope all this reverse psychology pays off.

Birdnuts

Probably as mild as the past several but wetter in parts - also Feb to continue acting as a spring month as opposed to what used to be the coldest month winters past.

Billcarson

Not much of a summer followed by not much of a winter most likely.....

Only thing that might save us and give us a winter is a modoki ....probably unlikely......

Niall145

Most likely; 3 months of endless grey mild rubbish with some lucky spots perhaps getting 2/3 days of snow during the brief colder spells (if only that snow we got in March this year had happened in the heart of winter....)

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120901766#Comment_120901766

Taking my job now are we 😛 but aye it will take something special for my thoughts to not veer towards a mild and wet winter this year. Not least because fed up of disappointments but the signals are poor from what we know.

pad199207

Mild and Dry hopefully

raspberrypi67

Blizzards for the most but 15 degrees on the 25th December!.

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120901555#Comment_120901555

No ‘displaced Azores high’ (whatever the hell that is) on that bingo card?

I have heard an old weather lore that says ‘for every fog in October a snowfall in winter’ and looking through the archives there is more than enough evidence that this holds true. Oct 1916 is the only one I can find that wasn’t anti cyclonic and therefore too windy for fog.

Sounds ridiculous but so does the St Swithin lore.

a perfect example here, one of many ..

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120903114#Comment_120903114

Probably would be able to fit another row with the stuff people come up with!

Admittedly, October fog is something I've never looked into. I've just heard Netweather posters joking about it.

Supercell

Mild, windy rainy with 2 days of sleet here in Loughlinstown 1Km from the coast.

Something like this again though would be nice.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120902817#Comment_120902817

Thought you liked cold spells?

Oneiric 3

This map attempts to show what the pattern may look like during the last quart of the year, and is only based on years with developing El Ninos during the summer and autumn, rather than even single winter with el ninos.

The MSLP anomaly shown in the map above for the Oct/Nov/Dec period shows that lower pressure is, on average, more likely. The problem with those anomaly maps though is that they give the impression that lows are more likely to run to the south during the late autumn/early winter during el nino years, but the actual mean MSLP pattern would suggest a more W/SW flow, with lows running more the the north, to be the broader theme.

I personally hope with have a wet and stormy Autumn and Winter. It's been a while since we've had such.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120901555#Comment_120901555

A warm September prevents cold weather in winter is one I’ve seen mentioned a lot over the last couple of years.

.Donegal.

I just hope the heart of the winter isn’t locked to in a boring grey, mild pattern with drizzle most days for weeks on end. If it isn’t going to be snowy or sunny and frosty I’d rather the pattern was mobile, at least that brings interest with storm chances. That mild, grey boring crap where nothing happens for weeks on end has become more common lately, it’s just a snooze fest.

And who knows? Maybe this winter could end up being a cold one when no one really expects it.

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120904618#Comment_120904618

Same, last year was super quiet for storms, would take a repeat of 13/14 if it’s not going to be cold.

Rikand

I predict unseasonably warm temperatures to counter balance the unseasonably rubbish July we've had. To counter balance the rest of Europe going into a period of cooling, a detached Azores high will park itself over Ireland in early November and remain there until late January. All time winter high temperatures in Ireland will be smashed and an unprecedented low number of days with ground frost. Golfers around the country will rejoice global warming and enjoy unbroken winter golf in shorts and t-shirts

Jim_Hodge

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120904438#Comment_120904438

Different stokes for different folks...around here that's the last thing we want to see.

SouthWesterly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120904810#Comment_120904810

My thoughts exactly. Though I'm predicting mid to high 20s with everyone complaining it's too hot and it's "just not natural". 😀

I can hope, can't I 🤣

adocholiday

I hope it isn't stormy anyway, I hate storms. Last winter was good in that regard, we had very few events of note. Usually in an El Nino season there are fewer Atlantic hurricanes but the warm seas could see strong storms materialise elsewhere.

Rikand

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120905913#Comment_120905913

It might not be the winter we deserve.... It's the winter we need!