Charts ( Up to T120 ) Summer 2023 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Looking quite wet Tues into Weds courtesy of the next Lp system to track over the country. Strongest winds well off shore, bit blustery along the coasts, breezy overland at times. Possible thunderstorms moving across the country from the W Tues evening, Tues night and into Weds morning.
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Uncertainty surrounds the weekends weather with little cross model agreement although ECM and ICON very alike at the present for some quite windy weather and very wet conditions which could give rise to flooding, most of the rain coming in from the SW / W later Fri into Sat, clearing the E Sat afternoon so should get some dry weather on Sat going by tonight's run but open to change, still a bit early, Sun a bit showery but could have dry spells also. The models have been chopping a changing but back on it tonight anyway. Will keep an eye on it.
Quite cool on Saturday perhaps just getting up to the mid teens and a lot lower in places, bit milder on Sun getting up to the high teens along the S, SE, E and a bit cooler elsewhere getting up to the mid teens .
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Some very windy charts appearing for late Fri / early Sat morning, a lot of models looking quite similar, ECM went off the boil but stronger on the 06Z, ARPEGE ,ICON, UKMO all quite similar, GFS strng too, still not nailed down but could be quite windy especially being the time of year.
System deepening on approach, all depends on track and timing under the influence of a fast Jet, look vert windy in the SW of the UK. Very wet especially the Northern half of the country.
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Nice to see the temperatures set to improve over the coming days, high teens tomorrow into the 20's for a couple of days and maybe mid 20's Weds ) and back to the high teens Fri ( maybe touching 20 in places especially the East ), bit of rain tomorrow although a lot of places will have good dry spells away from Munster. Some well scattered showers and sunny spells on Tuesday, mostly dry on Weds with a few well scattered light showers.
A lot less rain over the coming week( might have some frontal rain Thursday evening or so but doesn't look too heavy although could have a few isolated thunderstorms ), should give the land a chance to dry out some especially with a bit of heat and looks to have a breeze a times also if a bit breezy towards the end of the week which should help also. Maybe not all sunshine or without rain but definitely an improvement over the last number of weeks.
Post edited by Meteorite58 on15 -
Turned into a right nasty system been very hard to follow the runs this week, so much chopping and changing but firming up now. ECM very much big upgrades to the nature of the LP moving up from the South, very active fronts giving very heavy rain, thunderstorms and now strong winds too. Rainfall totals touching Orange warning levels in places, very hard to predict what thunderstorms might drop also , definitely spot flooding possible or maybe more local flooding ie over larger areas.
So could see increased rainfall warnings/ on the spot thunderstorm warnings, wind warnings look to be introduced again being in the height of the summer holidays.
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