Charts ( Up to T120 ) Summer 2023 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
-
30-05-2023 10:40am#1
Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing CHARTS in the shorter range timeframe up to T120 hours (next 5 days) for Summer 2023.
If your post does not specifically relate to a chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved
Thanks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Summer is just about here. After a very wet March and April, thankfully May prevented Spring from being a complete write off washout. Things have become much dryer in recent weeks and we are currently in a dry and mild pattern with high pressure dominating.
This week will continue mostly sunny with the high pressure positioned to our north. This isn't a warm ridge so winds in from the east will feel quite cool at times despite the sunshine, particularly along eastern and southern coastal areas. Temperatures generally 15 to 21C this week so about average for the time of year. In the west it will be warmer with less exposure to that easterly breeze so temperatures along western coastal areas could get into the low 20s over the next few days before turning slightly cooler over the weekend.
Towards the weekend the temperature will drop as the easterly become more noticeable across the country so the cooling effect will extend well into the midlands and possibly into western regions. By the weekend temperatures of 14 to 19C generally across the country, coolest in the east and warmest in the west. It should feel pleasant in the sunshine once you are sheltered from that easterly breeze.
While this thread only covers the 5 day look ahead, there are signs that this dry and relatively sunny pattern will continue into the following week and with a warmer wind direction from France/Switzerland possible so temperatures may increase across the country into the low 20s quite widely after next weekend.
No precipitation anywhere over the next 5 days at least so nothing to report in terms of rainfall.
Post edited by Gonzo on11
Comments
-
In general temperatures keeping up away from coastal areas impacted by the cooling Easterly breeze that is all too familiar at this stage with those missing out on the brilliant weather these last couple of weeks. Could see 25C or a bit more tomorrow , money on Shannon getting 25C+ 😀 . Rain a hit and miss affair over the weekend, very welcome though at this stage. The Low to the south getting closer and sending in weak occluded fronts in the main and probably a few troughs, instability from a high Theta E reading and warm Theta W adverting North. Will be interesting to see if thunderstorms spark off but looking low chance at this stage, all to do with timing of fronts and peak diurnal heating I would think although this kind of set up can produce night time storms also, has the look of some elevated storms if they do occur, some high Dp's Sat from 14 up to 17C and again on Sun. Different airmass coming in over the weekend, warm and sticky Sat and Sun, very mild overnight, maybe a bit oppressive for some, might need tto have the fans set up to help sleep, possibly not dropping below 14C in places overnight and even not going below 16c in some areas also and slow to get down to that.
Looking very warm to hot the following week with temps getting up between mid to high 20's.
7 -
Big changes are on the way. We are currently in a rather chilly setup with onshore E to ENE winds although it is still mild to warm in the western half of the country. This setup will come to an end by tomorrow or early Saturday and be replaced by a much warmer and more humid airflow. While temperatures across the west have been decent, it's been a very different story in the east with temperatures today barely struggling in the low teens. It's been a similar situation in the UK with temperatures there also struggling for what seems like weeks on end at this stage.
By Sunday we will be under a completely different airmass with temperatures climbing into the low 20s widely across all parts of the country for the first time this year.
Next week looks warm to locally hot with high pressure close by throughout the week.
Sunday will start things off with temperatures climbing into the 20s across the whole country with coastal margins slightly cooler.
Tuesday looks even warmer with temperatures approaching 26 or 27C in many places.
Potentially warmer again on Wednesday and turning locally hot with 28C or 29C possible especially across the south and midlands.
A little bit beyond the 120 hour mark and things still look very warm to hot throughout the country.
A fantastic spell of weather is on the way, hopefully this verifies as we could do with some proper summer warmth at long last. This spell of weather is unlikely to be as sunny and dry as the current setup, showers or thunderstorms are possible under this setup so the drought may come to and end, althrough as always showers and thunderstorms are hit and miss so some places could stay dry and remain under drought conditions.
15 -
GEM 12z ever so slightly warmer than what I posted earlier today, high twenties more dominant in the second half of next week instead of mid twenties.
GEM basically going for 7 days in a row of 24 to 28C nationwide from Monday. What can go wrong?
Icon also firing up the oven.
GFS will always dial in temperatures 2 to 4C lower than the other models during the summer so GFS shows 22 to 25C, then add 2 to 4C to those values.
3 -
Some fairly explosive action possibly taking place in the northern half of the country on Saturday especially Donegal, Mayo, Sligo, Leitrim and maybe Monaghan.
Not really seeing this on the other models with the thunderstorm risk increasing from Monday as the heat becomes dominant across the country.
5 -
-
Advertisement
-
-
-
-
-
Area of LP off the SW edging closer each day keeping the mild humid SW'lys moving up over us. Sending in fronts and troughs and showers and all the while giving possibility of thunderstorms each day ( maybe widespread Fri and Sat ). Rainfall totals building, bottom chart just for illustration but all the models showing steady accumulations , highest totals will all depend on where thunderstorms break out. Nights remaining mild and humid.
Decent sunshine levels for many the next couple of days especially away from the Western side of the country, looks a lot cloudier with outbreaks of rain and thunderstorms possibly more widespread on Fri and Sat. Sun could end up fairly wet too in parts.
Temps for next five days:
Weds up to 26 or 27C
Thurs up to around 26C
Fri up to 24C but large areas 19 to 22C where rain is falling or experiencing thunderstorms, temps will get knocked back a bit during the day
Sat Temps down a bit with highs of around 22C
Sun similar 18 to 22C or so in general
15 -
Advertisement
-
Sunday looking very warm, muggy and potentially very wet in places:
Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
0 -
-
Some big temperatures showing up for over in the East tomorrow. Lower on Sunday under a cooler airmass after the cold front goes through. Looks like getting into the high teens touching around 20C for next week, cooler . Plenty of frontal rain and showers giving a fairly high rainfall totals at this stage especially along Atlantic coastal counties. Nights that bit less warm than of late apart from when fronts might be passing through brining up the humidity.
That bit breezier/ windy than of late especially along Atlantic coastal areas especially during the passages of fronts but nothing severe showing up. Might need to make sure the pegs on the tent are driven in deep if camping on the Western side of the country 😀 Tues and Weds could be breezy for a time, tomorrow night along Atlantic coasts could be windy for a time with strong rain so might need to be aware of that if camping.
Post edited by Meteorite58 on8 -
Some rough enough weather coming up this week, LP nearby feeding in active fronts and troughs , blustery / windy on Thursday sweeping up over the country with some heavy rain at times up along the Western Seaboard, all the country should get some rain, for some parts of the W rain could continue well into Fri and could be seeing 50mm+ by Fri evening in parts but still not fully resolved how much rain over the coming days into the weekend but most likely the Western half of the country getting the most rain and heaviest further into the W, NW and SW. Sat the models differ a bit in strength but some showing quite windy for parts with frontal rain sweeping up over the country with possible embedded thunderstorms, will need to keep an eye on it, could be a bit strong for summer events, hopefully it will moderate more close to the time but not looking good for many over the weekend.
Looking like thunderstorms too from around Fri to Sun for parts ( could be quite active into the weekend ), will know better closer to the time. Temps increase into the low 20's Fri, a lot more humid with high Dp's Fri, initially high Dp's on Sat and humid before the front sweeps through, along with the passage of troughs there could be lots of shear available on Sun giving potential for instability in the atmosphere.
The main body of rain off the West hopefully will stay there.
Up to Sun on the latest ECM output
9 -
-
Very wet over higher terrain tomorrow in the counties highlighted for warnings. Warnings probably to be extended into Fri for some areas as rainfall accumulations mount, thunderstorms possible more so in the W and NW on Fri.
Windy few days coming up, Saturday still not resolved with various wind strengths and track but it looks fairly blustery/ windy country wide as an active front sweeps up over the country from early morning, could get its own dedicated wind warning yet. WRF probably about average if somewhat conservative from the models, some stronger.
Has the look of getting a combined adverse weather warning for wind, heavy rain and thunderstorm activity perhaps for certain counties. Could be waking to Thunder here in Kerry early Sat morning.
My thoughts that Saturday has the look of embedded thunderstorms moving up from the SW. The leading Cold Front could be quite active , squall line in appearance perhaps with a line of thunderstorms possible giving heavy falls of rain with hail possible and squally winds too . Active Cold Front moving into a a moist warm airmass probably causing forcing leading to a few hefty storms perhaps.
A preliminary look at the models showing high amounts of Low and Deep layer shear , very active jet over Ireland, Negative tilted trough, could have reports of funnels and tornadic winds possible.
Status Yellow - Rain warning for Cork, Kerry, Galway, Mayo
Met Éireann Weather Warning
Heavy rain at times on Thursday may cause localised flooding. Rain accompanied by fresh to strong winds will lead to poor travelling conditions. Rainfall totals will be higher in mountainous regions.
Valid: 10:00 Thursday 06/07/2023 to 20:00 Thursday 06/07/2023
Issued: 14:48 Wednesday 05/07/2023
3 -
-
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
Big spread in the models in terms of wind forecast for Saturday. ICON showing the strongest, going for 120kmph+ in some parts moving up the West coast, with 100kmph+ widespread in the West for the morning. ICON I think often overdoes it on the gust forecasts though. Still, anything over 80 when the trees are in full leaf can be dangerous so worth paying attention to I reckon. A few trees have already come down in my general area of South Wicklow in the past week or so.
UKMO and ECM showing it affecting the East more with varying strengths
GFS then showing a completely different set up, with the winds mostly staying off-shore and nothing out of the ordinary really overland.
4 -
-
-
-
Potentially very wet from Friday into the weekend from the ECM and ARPEGE , less wet from the GFS. Touching 20C on Fri, high teens Sat. Breezy to Blustery and windy in coastal areas also over the weekend with Lp's tracking close or over Ireland, not fully resolved will see over the coming days again but not looking good for camping over the weekend.
8 -
A very wet week is in store for us with next weekend looking particularly wet.
A dartboard low will be centered over Ireland from Friday and into the weekend, this has the potential to be another real soaking.
24 hours later it will still be sitting right over us.
Wet conditions likely to last into Sunday.
and the potential for another nasty looking dartboard low on into Monday.
Up to 100mm of rainfall is expected in parts of the country with most places seeing at least 60 to 70mm of rainfall over the coming week and weekend.
2 -
-
-
Advertisement
-
