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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2023 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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31-08-2023 12:04pm#1
Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing CHARTS in the shorter range timeframe up to T120 hours (next 5 days) for Autumn 2023.
If your post does not specifically relate to a chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved
Thanks
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After a very wet summer 2023 time to get into the autumn and there is hope that we will see a major improvement in the weather to start the autumn, how long this lasts remains to be seen but we should have a fairly warm and hopefully sunny weekend to come and this should last into the early part of next week. At the moment most of the following 7 day period is looking mainly dry and relatively warm as high pressure takes control of our weather for the first time since the final third of June when summer came to a screeching halt.
A nice ridge from the azores becomes dominant from tomorrow and into the weekend.
Temperatures of 20 to 22C or possibly 23C inland are expected this weekend, something we have rarely seen since June.
High pressure will remain anchored over us until Tuesday or Wednesday with temperatures possibly getting to 24 or 25C in places with low 20s along coastal and eastern areas.
Little to no precipitation over the opening 5/6 days of September. Rainfall amounts above take todays rainfall into account which brings the wet summer of 2023 to a close. A very pleasant weekend is in store for all of Ireland, something we haven't seen in a long time after 2 months worth of wet or washout weekends. This dry and warm spell of weather will be most welcome and well needed after such a poor summer.
Post edited by Meteorite58 on10
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Mon and Tues look the warmest days, will we see highest temps of 25C or 26C ??
Watching as the week goes on to see if any thunderstorms move up from the S or SW as waves of high Theta W move up from the South with possible weak fronts or troughs brushing past us or over us associated with the area of LP set to locate off the coast of Portugal. Temperatures set to remain warm for the week, not fully dry but very hit and miss depending on where convective showers might break out.
Night time temperatures very mild to warm the coming week from Mon night staying up around the mid teens or could even stay as high as 17 or 18C a couple of nights.
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As we all know a very warm week to come for all parts of Ireland with low to mid twenties widespread right across the country. Should hopefully be plenty of sunshine as well.
Tomorrow:
Tuesday:
Wednesday:
Thursday could get to 27C in a few places.
Upper air temperatures between +15 and +19C during mid week/Thursday.
Barely any rainfall over the coming working week.
I feel sorry for the kids stuck in school during this.
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Getting hotter by the day and ARPEGE showing hitting 28C Thurs, 29C Fri, 28C Sat in places inland. Parameters for thunderstorms also at times but very hit and miss and could see most activity over the sea like today but some potential for overland also.
Very warm nights, possibly not getting lower than 18 or 19C in many places from overnight Weds through to Sat morning.
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Unsettled outlook. Fairly rain free on Saturday, Sunday a bit uncertain, most of the rain could be over the Eastern half of the country. Bit windy around the coasts at times, breezy to blustery at times overland but nothing too strong showing as yet anyway even with the remnants of Lee being carried towards us.
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Just looking at the weather for the Ploughing Championships.
Passage of a trough on Monday giving showers or some more prolonged spells of rain, windy/ blustery on coasts and breezy overland, feeling a bit cool in the breeze, about 12 to 15C.
Tuesday warm front transits the country mostly in the early hours, showery or more prolonged periods of rain during the day in the warm sector, feeling mild up to high teens in parts. Cold front crosses the country later in the evening, windy with the passage of the fronts, looks like gusting to 70km/h or so at times at the ploughing championships. Highest rainfall accumulations along Atlantic coastal counties, sea area warnings for small craft look likely, unsure yet if some coastal counties see wind warnings but close enough. Could see rainfall warnings for coastal counties, fronts breaking up and loosing strength as they cross the country but still could see 5 to 15mm further East, will have a look at the charts again tomorrow.
Weds some showers, winds a lot lighter down to a breeze overland, temps down a couple of degrees but still relatively mild.
Thurs showers and relatively calm ( will need to see if some get thundery ) , temps down again to about 12 to 14C
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Fax charts are horrible for the next week, wet wet wet sums it up , with nw winds at times blowing hard it's going to feel autumnal too.
Wednesday looks particularly rotten albeit pretty far in terms of forecasting. Summer has left the building.
Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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Sunday looks quite blowy with bands of rain sweeping across. Should at least be mild.
Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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Cool 4 or 5 days coming up with frosty nights possible in places. Looks like good dry spells after the frontal rain goes through early Friday leaving showers coming in from the NW into Sat, some penetrating inland a bit in the Northern half of the country, retreating to the coasts later , Sun through Tues looks dry for most apart maybe from the odd shower near coasts. A bit breezy tomorrow and windy on coasts making it feel that bit extra cold, the first true cool feeling day this Autumn I would think.
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Rain pushing into the SW Sunday late afternoon/ evening and there looks to be a band of rain over Ireland after that up until early Tues morning, another band of rain across Munster perhaps later Tuesday.
A difference between the models in the track of the rain band which is understandable at this stage, very slow moving and meandering a bit , so there is a general area of Munster and Connaught currently in the weather warnings, will need to watch if we could see an Orange warning again for areas with saturated ground like Cork/ Limerick which looks to feature in the areas to receive most rainfall. Models by tomorrow night should have a more accurate handle on it, I presume the forecasters will err on the side of caution given the recent flooding, tide heights increasing next week. Tuesday night into Weds could see another 20mm or so along Southern counties in places.
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ECM showing strong winds off and along the SW /S coasts later Tues into Weds associated an area of deepening LP with more possible heavy rains later Tues/ Weds but not showing on other models. One to keep an eye on. Then at the end of the run, more suited in the FI thread +120hrs the ECM showing some very windy around Mon 30th but as ever will need to see if a trend develops ( GEM and ACCESS-G hinting at something but GFS not as yet ), the weather could get a bit more lively the first week into Nov.
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Orange warnings go into Tuesday in the SE, not like Met Eireann to issue Orange warnings this far out but the land is certainly very wet so forewarned and all that. GFS has reduced its rainfall total and possibly the outlier here, ECM has shifted the system later Tues into Weds so not producing as much rainfall as earlier shown. Possible changes to come if it continues to show less rainfall.
ECM showing an area of LP off the West now on Weds keeping the strongest winds off shore, a bit windy along the coasts. This is not nailed down yet though with all the models showing different tracks and timing but non showing anything too strong.
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ARPEGE 06z just out nudging it further east still, Wicklow taking the brunt of it. This would be bad news for parts of Wicklow because the ground is already totally saturated here after all the rain last week and river levels are high. As @pureza posted in another thread, Arklow had around 130mm of rain last week so this would be quite bad
HARMONIE 06z keeping totals lower and the Meath/Cavan area seeing some higher totals. Seems to be a good bit of uncertainty with this one at this stage still.
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The models are slowly but surely coming inline with Met Eireann's forecast. The 12z runs are out and AROME, ICON, ARPEGE and UKMO are all showing Waterford, Wexford, and Kilkenny in the main firing line, although orange level totals look isolated, probably orange due to impact rather than specific numbers.
HARMONIE out on its own showing parts of Wicklow touching red-level totals, and GFS still leaning towards a much less wet scenario.
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The latest AROME model is more in line with the the HARMONIE some parts of the southwest in a high level orange pushing into a low red Criteria locally.
Some areas further north could be added to that yellow rainfall warning also into Sligo Leitrim, Cavan, Meath.
Could see a few warning changes over the next few hours yet.
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