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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Summer 2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing CHARTS in the shorter range timeframe up to T120 hours (next 5 days) for Summer 2023.

If your post does not specifically relate to a chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

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Summer is just about here. After a very wet March and April, thankfully May prevented Spring from being a complete write off washout. Things have become much dryer in recent weeks and we are currently in a dry and mild pattern with high pressure dominating.

This week will continue mostly sunny with the high pressure positioned to our north. This isn't a warm ridge so winds in from the east will feel quite cool at times despite the sunshine, particularly along eastern and southern coastal areas. Temperatures generally 15 to 21C this week so about average for the time of year. In the west it will be warmer with less exposure to that easterly breeze so temperatures along western coastal areas could get into the low 20s over the next few days before turning slightly cooler over the weekend.

Towards the weekend the temperature will drop as the easterly become more noticeable across the country so the cooling effect will extend well into the midlands and possibly into western regions. By the weekend temperatures of 14 to 19C generally across the country, coolest in the east and warmest in the west. It should feel pleasant in the sunshine once you are sheltered from that easterly breeze.

While this thread only covers the 5 day look ahead, there are signs that this dry and relatively sunny pattern will continue into the following week and with a warmer wind direction from France/Switzerland possible so temperatures may increase across the country into the low 20s quite widely after next weekend.

No precipitation anywhere over the next 5 days at least so nothing to report in terms of rainfall.

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Meteorite58

In general temperatures keeping up away from coastal areas impacted by the cooling Easterly breeze that is all too familiar at this stage with those missing out on the brilliant weather these last couple of weeks. Could see 25C or a bit more tomorrow , money on Shannon getting 25C+ 😀 . Rain a hit and miss affair over the weekend, very welcome though at this stage. The Low to the south getting closer and sending in weak occluded fronts in the main and probably a few troughs, instability from a high Theta E reading and warm Theta W adverting North. Will be interesting to see if thunderstorms spark off but looking low chance at this stage, all to do with timing of fronts and peak diurnal heating I would think although this kind of set up can produce night time storms also, has the look of some elevated storms if they do occur, some high Dp's Sat from 14 up to 17C and again on Sun. Different airmass coming in over the weekend, warm and sticky Sat and Sun, very mild overnight, maybe a bit oppressive for some, might need tto have the fans set up to help sleep, possibly not dropping below 14C in places overnight and even not going below 16c in some areas also and slow to get down to that.

Looking very warm to hot the following week with temps getting up between mid to high 20's.

Gonzo

Big changes are on the way. We are currently in a rather chilly setup with onshore E to ENE winds although it is still mild to warm in the western half of the country. This setup will come to an end by tomorrow or early Saturday and be replaced by a much warmer and more humid airflow. While temperatures across the west have been decent, it's been a very different story in the east with temperatures today barely struggling in the low teens. It's been a similar situation in the UK with temperatures there also struggling for what seems like weeks on end at this stage.

By Sunday we will be under a completely different airmass with temperatures climbing into the low 20s widely across all parts of the country for the first time this year.

Next week looks warm to locally hot with high pressure close by throughout the week.

Sunday will start things off with temperatures climbing into the 20s across the whole country with coastal margins slightly cooler.

Tuesday looks even warmer with temperatures approaching 26 or 27C in many places.

Potentially warmer again on Wednesday and turning locally hot with 28C or 29C possible especially across the south and midlands.

A little bit beyond the 120 hour mark and things still look very warm to hot throughout the country.

A fantastic spell of weather is on the way, hopefully this verifies as we could do with some proper summer warmth at long last. This spell of weather is unlikely to be as sunny and dry as the current setup, showers or thunderstorms are possible under this setup so the drought may come to and end, althrough as always showers and thunderstorms are hit and miss so some places could stay dry and remain under drought conditions.

Gonzo

GEM 12z ever so slightly warmer than what I posted earlier today, high twenties more dominant in the second half of next week instead of mid twenties.

GEM basically going for 7 days in a row of 24 to 28C nationwide from Monday. What can go wrong?

Icon also firing up the oven.

GFS will always dial in temperatures 2 to 4C lower than the other models during the summer so GFS shows 22 to 25C, then add 2 to 4C to those values.

Gonzo

Some fairly explosive action possibly taking place in the northern half of the country on Saturday especially Donegal, Mayo, Sligo, Leitrim and maybe Monaghan.

Not really seeing this on the other models with the thunderstorm risk increasing from Monday as the heat becomes dominant across the country.

Gonzo

Will update this thread later when the 12z rolls out. Currently not much change other than turning unsettled over the weekend in places with a chance of thunderstorms and becoming very humid and warm everywhere by Sunday. This low level warmth could quickly transition to moderate level warmth by Monday with high levels of warmth becoming widespread second half of next week. This very warm spell looks as if it may get extended into the 3rd week of June but that's a topic for the FI 120+ thread.

nacho libre

If the EC46 is to be believed this generally settled pattern could last longer than the 3rd week of June. I doubt it would be bone dry all the time, but any unsettled period might not last too long.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120694257#Comment_120694257

My gut feeling is we are in for a warm to hot summer, not all the time but regularly from June till at least mid July and a deterioration following with August being the poorest month. The current spell of warm weather could persist unbroken right into July with varying levels of warmth or heat, thunderstorms are also likely at times so it won't be completely dry all the time and cloud may well become more of an issue too at times. This will not go down as a poor summer. The EC46 is looking very good over the next few weeks and the JMA is looking hot and volatile for second half of June.

Western Ireland has already had more sunny days into the 20s than they get over entire summers and things are only getting going for the eastern half of the country.

I'm guessing Met Eireann could issue a yellow or orange heat warning in a few days if the current outlook of high 20s over several days verifies later next week.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120694298#Comment_120694298

Yes. I think any breakdown will be convective in nature and probably not lasting too long. There is currently no sign of A traditional Atlantic breakdown anytime soon based off the ec46 - Indeed the EC46 has this blocked pattern persisting through a good deal of July. I don't know if it's to do with climate change but it's quite incredible how we have gone from one of the wettest March on record to this. I had never seen the fields as wet in March before,now they are bone dry with cracks in the soil. This will no doubt change somewhat over the next few days

JanuarySnowstor

ECM backs ukmo by next weekend. Temps high 20s, perhaps nudging 30 by Friday/Saturday. What a Summer this one could turn out to be!!

Meteorite58

Area of LP off the SW edging closer each day keeping the mild humid SW'lys moving up over us. Sending in fronts and troughs and showers and all the while giving possibility of thunderstorms each day ( maybe widespread Fri and Sat ). Rainfall totals building, bottom chart just for illustration but all the models showing steady accumulations , highest totals will all depend on where thunderstorms break out. Nights remaining mild and humid.

Decent sunshine levels for many the next couple of days especially away from the Western side of the country, looks a lot cloudier with outbreaks of rain and thunderstorms possibly more widespread on Fri and Sat. Sun could end up fairly wet too in parts.

Temps for next five days:

Weds up to 26 or 27C

Thurs up to around 26C

Fri up to 24C but large areas 19 to 22C where rain is falling or experiencing thunderstorms, temps will get knocked back a bit during the day

Sat Temps down a bit with highs of around 22C

Sun similar 18 to 22C or so in general

Supercell

Sunday looking very warm, muggy and potentially very wet in places:

pad199207

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120716765#Comment_120716765

Lovely jubbly

Meteorite58

Some big temperatures showing up for over in the East tomorrow. Lower on Sunday under a cooler airmass after the cold front goes through. Looks like getting into the high teens touching around 20C for next week, cooler . Plenty of frontal rain and showers giving a fairly high rainfall totals at this stage especially along Atlantic coastal counties. Nights that bit less warm than of late apart from when fronts might be passing through brining up the humidity.

That bit breezier/ windy than of late especially along Atlantic coastal areas especially during the passages of fronts but nothing severe showing up. Might need to make sure the pegs on the tent are driven in deep if camping on the Western side of the country 😀 Tues and Weds could be breezy for a time, tomorrow night along Atlantic coasts could be windy for a time with strong rain so might need to be aware of that if camping.

xx_model-en-328-0_modez_2023062300_40_949_1 (1).png

Meteorite58

Some rough enough weather coming up this week, LP nearby feeding in active fronts and troughs , blustery / windy on Thursday sweeping up over the country with some heavy rain at times up along the Western Seaboard, all the country should get some rain, for some parts of the W rain could continue well into Fri and could be seeing 50mm+ by Fri evening in parts but still not fully resolved how much rain over the coming days into the weekend but most likely the Western half of the country getting the most rain and heaviest further into the W, NW and SW. Sat the models differ a bit in strength but some showing quite windy for parts with frontal rain sweeping up over the country with possible embedded thunderstorms, will need to keep an eye on it, could be a bit strong for summer events, hopefully it will moderate more close to the time but not looking good for many over the weekend.

Looking like thunderstorms too from around Fri to Sun for parts ( could be quite active into the weekend ), will know better closer to the time. Temps increase into the low 20's Fri, a lot more humid with high Dp's Fri, initially high Dp's on Sat and humid before the front sweeps through, along with the passage of troughs there could be lots of shear available on Sun giving potential for instability in the atmosphere.

The main body of rain off the West hopefully will stay there.

Up to Sun on the latest ECM output

Chris_5339762

The models really are all over the place on where the rain is going. RTE have it sitting over the country, GFS has it staying off the coast mostly.

Meteorite58

Very wet over higher terrain tomorrow in the counties highlighted for warnings. Warnings probably to be extended into Fri for some areas as rainfall accumulations mount, thunderstorms possible more so in the W and NW on Fri.

Windy few days coming up, Saturday still not resolved with various wind strengths and track but it looks fairly blustery/ windy country wide as an active front sweeps up over the country from early morning, could get its own dedicated wind warning yet. WRF probably about average if somewhat conservative from the models, some stronger.

Has the look of getting a combined adverse weather warning for wind, heavy rain and thunderstorm activity perhaps for certain counties. Could be waking to Thunder here in Kerry early Sat morning.

My thoughts that Saturday has the look of embedded thunderstorms moving up from the SW. The leading Cold Front could be quite active , squall line in appearance perhaps with a line of thunderstorms possible giving heavy falls of rain with hail possible and squally winds too . Active Cold Front moving into a a moist warm airmass probably causing forcing leading to a few hefty storms perhaps.

A preliminary look at the models showing high amounts of Low and Deep layer shear , very active jet over Ireland, Negative tilted trough, could have reports of funnels and tornadic winds possible.

Status Yellow - Rain warning for Cork, Kerry, Galway, Mayo

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Heavy rain at times on Thursday may cause localised flooding. Rain accompanied by fresh to strong winds will lead to poor travelling conditions. Rainfall totals will be higher in mountainous regions.

Valid: 10:00 Thursday 06/07/2023 to 20:00 Thursday 06/07/2023

Issued: 14:48 Wednesday 05/07/2023

xx_model-en-328-0_modez_2023070512_33_949_63 (1).png

JanuarySnowstor

My thoughts are what rain!! The gfs, for several runs now is showing a predominantly dry weekend and even tomorrow it's very much a West/Northwest event! I don't see any storms either with any action staying well offshore.

Gonzo

At the moment rainfall doesn't look like much for eastern half of the country apart from maybe tomorrow. Friday and Saturday could be reasonably warm and mostly dry, up to 22c in places, a bit of a respite from the recent chill and showery conditions.

squonk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120811352#Comment_120811352

Just because you mightn’t get rain in the east doesn’t mean other parts will stay dry. Looking very wet in the west. We’ve well paid for the dry warm period at this stage. It’s been very my wet on the west coast the past few weeks.

Storm 10

Not only is it very wet in Galway its bloody cold today 13 degrees on the car.

squonk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120812203#Comment_120812203

Yup. Working from home here shd I’m thinking about turning on tge heating for an hour… in July!!

adocholiday

Big spread in the models in terms of wind forecast for Saturday. ICON showing the strongest, going for 120kmph+ in some parts moving up the West coast, with 100kmph+ widespread in the West for the morning. ICON I think often overdoes it on the gust forecasts though. Still, anything over 80 when the trees are in full leaf can be dangerous so worth paying attention to I reckon. A few trees have already come down in my general area of South Wicklow in the past week or so.

UKMO and ECM showing it affecting the East more with varying strengths

GFS then showing a completely different set up, with the winds mostly staying off-shore and nothing out of the ordinary really overland.

Storm 10

Unreal day here in Galway lashing rain gone very windy got several gusts of 55 miles per hour on my station at home bits of trees down and its still around 14 degrees, Winter has arrived early !!!!!

PowerToWait

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120813225#Comment_120813225

The Romans weren't wrong with 'Hibernia'. I'm in southern Ulster and it's like a bad day in November out the window.

lawred2

July has been scutter so far

Cold, wet, windy

miserable

Meteorite58

Potentially very wet from Friday into the weekend from the ECM and ARPEGE , less wet from the GFS. Touching 20C on Fri, high teens Sat. Breezy to Blustery and windy in coastal areas also over the weekend with Lp's tracking close or over Ireland, not fully resolved will see over the coming days again but not looking good for camping over the weekend.