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Tues 11th/ Weds 12th April 2023 strong winds, warnings likely.

  • 07-04-2023 11:49am
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,720 Mod ✭✭✭✭



    ECM about the most consistent I would think with track and wind speeds, GFS has eased off again on the 06Z, had been showing very strong winds on previous run- lot of chopping and changing, UKMO very strong and stormy overland but cant take it too literally this far out as prone to very much overdoing it in the early runs. ICON was consistent in its approach similar to the ECM if a lot stronger but has eased off on strength this morning and giving it a more ragged look with winds at different intervals. GEM a bit out on its own with a different look all together on latest run. Australian model showing a very strong wind event also.


    Can see that the storm deepens very rapidly and is still deepening at landfall. Taking a reading of probably about 1000 mb at 99hrs and 961hPa at 120hrs giving a drop of about 40mb in less than 24hrs. Formed along and exiting the left side of a very fast jet positioned to bring it close or over us. Fairly strong thermal gradient also brining in cold airs with it giving the chance of some wintry showers plus convective heavy showers with hail and will see if thunderstorms possible.

    Would think at this stage a fair chance of strong winds. Will see how the models progress with this.


    Just seen this on Met Eireanns site:

    TUESDAY: Wet and windy on Tuesday with wind warnings likely to be issued. There is potential for impactful conditions so stay up to date with the forecast for your local area.








    Post edited by Meteorite58 on


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 23,593 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Well, it wouldn't be a US Presidential visit without a storm coming.

    Now all we need is an Icelandic Volcano ash plume and it'll be Obama 2011 all over again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,619 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Looking at the ecm ensemble for Malin beg right on the coast in west Donegal. One run had a gust of 164kmh but the main run was above the mean.

    For Belmullet main run has a gust of 132kmh which is also above the mean. One has 150kmh.

    For Dublin main run 84kmh above the mean of 71kmh. Max is 110kmh.

    Some stormy potential at long last.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,191 ✭✭✭SouthWesterly


    Would you all go away with your warnings. Please.🫣😁

    Was in the garden today planting spuds and off all next week with a heap to do outside.



  • Registered Users Posts: 255 ✭✭Robwindstorm


    Amazing if it were to materialize. Not sure of the April windspeed record but as someone said Obama came during a May storm but I don't think it was too bad. I think met eireann are being careful with this one and rightly so because there's still Easter holidays with kids play dates etc. This set up usually doesn't come to pass as severe as forecast particularly given the time of year but the ingredients are certainly there. Well done meteorite for seeing this potential a couple of days back when everyone is slacking of chart watching until summer heat or thunderstorms come back in to play. Interesting to watch this play out.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,720 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    UKMO is unrelenting in its depiction of what this might look like although could easily be still overdoing it at this stage, ICON back looking like ECM and UKMO, will see what the ECM looks like shortly. Still too soon to know exactly how strong or exact tract.





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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,459 ✭✭✭typhoony


    Very much doubt we'll get a storm mid-week this time of year, could get a bit squally on Monday though in the showers



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,522 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Met Eireann' current thoughts:

    There is a low probability of a high impact event on Tuesday and into Wednesday. While there is still a high degree of uncertainty in the details it is quite likely that Tuesday will be a wet and windy day with the possibility of wind warnings being issued in due course.

    ** There is potential for impactful conditions, so stay up to date with the forecast and warnings for your local area **.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,779 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    ECM has backed off the stronger winds now in the last 2 runs, still windy but nothing major. GFS has the system well to our South heading towards Cornwall so a non-event, and the UKMO doing similar also downgrading the wind strength. Still a lot of uncertainty in the models but all trending away from the strong winds showing in earlier runs.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,800 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ya it looks like deepening over Britain. Nothing much here but it may be a named storm because its impacting Britain.

    Our media will blow it out of all proportion probably and people will say "that's not a storm".



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  • Registered Users Posts: 32,524 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    Looks like we took a bad time to do a family visit to Dublin Tuesday to Thursday!



  • Registered Users Posts: 604 ✭✭✭RedPeppers


    With the help of God it stays well away. Its bloody spring time and the weather has been deplorable up to now.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,613 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Hopefully this storm doesn't amount to anything here. This Spring has been awful with the exception of 2 or 3 days where it hasn't been raining and we're nearly half way through Spring.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,191 ✭✭✭SouthWesterly


    So that means the sun will be shining and I can get some gardening done....right ?🫣



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,961 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Sunshine and showers possibly turning wintry in heavier bursts, especially on higher ground




  • Registered Users Posts: 820 ✭✭✭KanyeSouthEast


    I’d say you’ll be fine somehow. This is probably being blown out of all proportion again. I wouldn’t be cancelling or changing plans if I was you



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,779 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    The one thing about Icon, in my experience, is it always overcooks the winds. In my last 3 years following weather closely I don't remember it ever being right with strong wind events.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,720 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    There is no doubt it over does the wind speeds some bit as does the UKMO. Lower again on the 18Z run from ICON.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,800 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Even if the midweek storm misses us there are many near misses throughout April as the jet livens.

    Could be an unsettled Summer with El Nino returning.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,127 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Flying Edinburgh Dublin on Tuesday afternoon. This doesn't sound great for that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,619 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Wind warning issued for Antrim and Down for Tuesday. In the notes it mentions gusts of up to 60mph so nothing too bad. With the uncertainty, that warning will probably be modified in some way by tomorrow.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,467 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    It depends what type of El Nino it is. If it's a strong one that's usually bad news if you want good weather. However a moderate to weak one can lead to settled conditions. Back to the present, I would like a storm, it has been too long since we've had a proper storm, but it looks like we will miss out again



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,776 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    A lot unresolved on this system


    12zs be interesting



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Yes for a moment there it looked like we might have had a weather event...must be the most protracted blandest period of non weather in some time.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,836 ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Ooh... I'm no expert but that convergence of LPs and the twisty winds might produce localised surprises? More mini tornados or stingjets possible perhaps?😮



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