Tues 11th/ Weds 12th April 2023 strong winds, warnings likely.

Meteorite58

ECM about the most consistent I would think with track and wind speeds, GFS has eased off again on the 06Z, had been showing very strong winds on previous run- lot of chopping and changing, UKMO very strong and stormy overland but cant take it too literally this far out as prone to very much overdoing it in the early runs. ICON was consistent in its approach similar to the ECM if a lot stronger but has eased off on strength this morning and giving it a more ragged look with winds at different intervals. GEM a bit out on its own with a different look all together on latest run. Australian model showing a very strong wind event also.

Can see that the storm deepens very rapidly and is still deepening at landfall. Taking a reading of probably about 1000 mb at 99hrs and 961hPa at 120hrs giving a drop of about 40mb in less than 24hrs. Formed along and exiting the left side of a very fast jet positioned to bring it close or over us. Fairly strong thermal gradient also brining in cold airs with it giving the chance of some wintry showers plus convective heavy showers with hail and will see if thunderstorms possible.

Would think at this stage a fair chance of strong winds. Will see how the models progress with this.

Just seen this on Met Eireanns site:

TUESDAY: Wet and windy on Tuesday with wind warnings likely to be issued. There is potential for impactful conditions so stay up to date with the forecast for your local area.

Larbre34

Well, it wouldn't be a US Presidential visit without a storm coming.

Now all we need is an Icelandic Volcano ash plume and it'll be Obama 2011 all over again.

.Donegal.

Looking at the ecm ensemble for Malin beg right on the coast in west Donegal. One run had a gust of 164kmh but the main run was above the mean.

For Belmullet main run has a gust of 132kmh which is also above the mean. One has 150kmh.

For Dublin main run 84kmh above the mean of 71kmh. Max is 110kmh.

Some stormy potential at long last.

Would you all go away with your warnings. Please.🫣😁

Was in the garden today planting spuds and off all next week with a heap to do outside.

Robwindstorm

Amazing if it were to materialize. Not sure of the April windspeed record but as someone said Obama came during a May storm but I don't think it was too bad. I think met eireann are being careful with this one and rightly so because there's still Easter holidays with kids play dates etc. This set up usually doesn't come to pass as severe as forecast particularly given the time of year but the ingredients are certainly there. Well done meteorite for seeing this potential a couple of days back when everyone is slacking of chart watching until summer heat or thunderstorms come back in to play. Interesting to watch this play out.

Meteorite58

UKMO is unrelenting in its depiction of what this might look like although could easily be still overdoing it at this stage, ICON back looking like ECM and UKMO, will see what the ECM looks like shortly. Still too soon to know exactly how strong or exact tract.

Meteorite58

ECM just rolling out and has a different look and shape and not as strong on this run, maybe an outlier compared to the previous runs. Looks like forming that bit later and deepening as it has moved pass Ireland so to speak. Less deep also. Will just have to wait and see. GFS still keeping a smaller version to the South of us keeping the strongest winds offshore. So a big spread again.

ARPGE 12Z Just getting there and showing a deepening storm moving into the SW with strong winds but too early for this model just yet.

typhoony

Very much doubt we'll get a storm mid-week this time of year, could get a bit squally on Monday though in the showers

DOCARCH

Met Eireann' current thoughts:

There is a low probability of a high impact event on Tuesday and into Wednesday. While there is still a high degree of uncertainty in the details it is quite likely that Tuesday will be a wet and windy day with the possibility of wind warnings being issued in due course.

** There is potential for impactful conditions, so stay up to date with the forecast and warnings for your local area **.

adocholiday

ECM has backed off the stronger winds now in the last 2 runs, still windy but nothing major. GFS has the system well to our South heading towards Cornwall so a non-event, and the UKMO doing similar also downgrading the wind strength. Still a lot of uncertainty in the models but all trending away from the strong winds showing in earlier runs.

pauldry

Ya it looks like deepening over Britain. Nothing much here but it may be a named storm because its impacting Britain.

Our media will blow it out of all proportion probably and people will say "that's not a storm".

NIMAN

Looks like we took a bad time to do a family visit to Dublin Tuesday to Thursday!

RedPeppers

With the help of God it stays well away. Its bloody spring time and the weather has been deplorable up to now.

Gonzo

Hopefully this storm doesn't amount to anything here. This Spring has been awful with the exception of 2 or 3 days where it hasn't been raining and we're nearly half way through Spring.

Meteorite58

It turns out the GFS has been the most consistent of the models this far bringing the system mainly into the UK. ECM has lost all its shape and consistency with this and is undergoing new processing of the data. UKMO changing the look of it, still showing quite windy weather at times, ICON had totally eased off but back showing something stronger this morning. ARPEGE ( on the 06Z brushing off the S , SE of Ireland ) more like the GFS.

The Jet looks to be taking a more Southerly direction so the energy/ system seems to be following a similar route. We haven't seen how this will finally look but for now anyway the threat of a severe storm is greatly diminished, still a chance of strong winds for a time and also it is possible that there will be heavy rain for a time, but even now hard to know how this will pan out .

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120453691#Comment_120453691

So that means the sun will be shining and I can get some gardening done....right ?🫣

Artane2002

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120454407#Comment_120454407

Sunshine and showers possibly turning wintry in heavier bursts, especially on higher ground

KanyeSouthEast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120453908#Comment_120453908

I’d say you’ll be fine somehow. This is probably being blown out of all proportion again. I wouldn’t be cancelling or changing plans if I was you

Meteorite58

It isn't over yet according to the latest UKMO, deepening system crossing Ireland brining very strong winds and some heavy falls of rain. Still not seeing the finished article though, chopping and changing to come . ICON showing stronger winds now also but not as strong as the UKMO, will see what the ECM offers later. GFS 12Z still more or less the same track but possibly not as strong

Met Office still mentioning the potential and the uncertainty.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1644324319160328192?s=20

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1644701735124889605?s=20

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1644704040712908801?s=20

Meteorite58

Actually the ICON 12Z much stronger than the 06Z and taking a similar route as the UKMO, different shape to it but the potential there for something quite windy now .

The GFS ARPEGE not showing it to such extent.

ECM back looking a bit more organised with two areas of Lp deepening/ merging but in a different place again , stronger winds but nothing extreme on this run.

Plenty of changeable charts to come, probably the hardest to model when formed of the Jet like that.

adocholiday

The one thing about Icon, in my experience, is it always overcooks the winds. In my last 3 years following weather closely I don't remember it ever being right with strong wind events.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120456126#Comment_120456126

There is no doubt it over does the wind speeds some bit as does the UKMO. Lower again on the 18Z run from ICON.

pauldry

Even if the midweek storm misses us there are many near misses throughout April as the jet livens.

Could be an unsettled Summer with El Nino returning.

Meteorite58

More changes in the model output this morning. ARPEGE, GFS looking very windy at times Tues and Weds, UKMO's track takes the strongest winds offshore but windy also at times in places Weds, ICON windy Weds, ECM windy Weds but not extreme.

So GFS and ARPEGE have shifted the track of the system, which they are showing to be a complex arrangement of two areas of LP deepening over Ireland, ARPEGE at this stage keeping two center's whereas the GFS shows them to merge but both showing similar winds up there in the high Yellow and into Orange warning level but all subject to change.

Certainly no cross model agreement ,ECM , ICON and UKMO would have to come more inline to have any certainty but I would think that they are heading towards some spells of windy if not very windy weather.

lawred2

Flying Edinburgh Dublin on Tuesday afternoon. This doesn't sound great for that.

.Donegal.

Wind warning issued for Antrim and Down for Tuesday. In the notes it mentions gusts of up to 60mph so nothing too bad. With the uncertainty, that warning will probably be modified in some way by tomorrow.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120456582#Comment_120456582

It depends what type of El Nino it is. If it's a strong one that's usually bad news if you want good weather. However a moderate to weak one can lead to settled conditions. Back to the present, I would like a storm, it has been too long since we've had a proper storm, but it looks like we will miss out again

ninebeanrows

A lot unresolved on this system

12zs be interesting

squarecircles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120457800#Comment_120457800

Yes for a moment there it looked like we might have had a weather event...must be the most protracted blandest period of non weather in some time.

Meteorite58

Cant ignore how strong some of the models look on the latest runs but still not resolved, ECM will tell a lot soon. Probably one of the hardest things to model when an area of LP drops like a stone coming off the Jet . It would seem there is an area of LP forming rapidly with a wave off it forming rapidly also into another area of LP which in turn deepens rapidly. The two areas of LP more or less tied together and pirouetting around each other and possibly/ probably merging into a larger area of Lp in the end. So the timing strength, track is changing quite a bit but perhaps starting to see what this might resemble Tue /Weds.

ARPEGE, UKMO are showing storm force winds along coastal counties and overland. WRF- NMM very strong winds overland, GFS strong winds overland, ICON down on Tues but strong on Weds overland. ECM out shortly , earlier was showing bouts of windy conditions in the Yellow range.

So potential for a wind event with warnings of at least in the Orange level at times, widespread yellow. Hard one to forecast as there will be periods of strong winds, cyclonic in nature so coming from different directions.

Some heavy rain at times also and wind driven to boot. Very cold uppers so convective showers with hail and thunderstorms possible and maybe a bit wintry on high ground / Mountains.

igCorcaigh

Ooh... I'm no expert but that convergence of LPs and the twisty winds might produce localised surprises? More mini tornados or stingjets possible perhaps?😮

Meteorite58

ECM rolling out, not developing the system to the north of us as rapidly or as deep as the other models and that bit different also so not showing winds of note on Tues and strong winds overland Weds on the run in the Yellow warning range gusting 80 to 90km/h. Not resolved yet by far.

Met Eireanns forecast hasn't deviated much all day which would be at odds with tonight's ECM run for Tuesday. Very much holding onto the uncertainty phrase.

Met Eireann : Tuesday: Exact details are still uncertain for Tuesday but currently the forecast suggests southerly winds veering westerly will be strong and gusty with gales in some coastal areas. Rain will continue to extend northeastwards becoming widespread, and at times heavy, during the morning before clearing to showers later in the day. Highest temperatures will range from 7 to 11 degrees. Cold and windy on Tuesday night with widespread showers and gusty conditions at times. There will be a chance of hail and isolated thunderstorms and a few brief wintry flurries over high ground cannot be ruled out. Lows will range from 0 to 4 degrees generally.

Wednesday: Remaining windy on Wednesday with frequent squally showers feeding in from the west throughout the day. Some of the showers will be heavy with a chance for further isolated thunderstorms and hail and the showers may merge to longer spells of rain at times. Highs on 8 to 10 degrees in fresh to strong and gusty westerly winds. Cold and breezy on Wednesday night with clear spells and scattered showers, some of hail. Lowest temperatures of 0 to 4 degrees in fresh and gusty southwest winds.

M.T. Cranium

Brief windy spell mid-day Tuesday for the south and east (gusts to around 80 km/hr), then a more sustained interval of very strong winds developing by evening, peaking later overnight, largest impacts coastal Connacht and most of Munster, would say gusts to 110 km/hr fairly widespread in exposed locations from midnight to late morning Wednesday, also very chilly for time of year, could see wintry showers on slopes and hail showers near sea level. Some squally showers at times later today also. The evolution suggests stronger winds will take a long time to spread any further north than about Tipps to Wexford during the Wednesday mid-day period and peak gusts (after the earlier Tuesday peak) in Dublin area likely to be Wednesday afternoon but more moderate, 50-80 km/hr west-northwest.

Meteorite58

Weather Warnings

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Galway, Mayo

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Very strong west to northwest winds developing. Widespread gusts of between 90 and 110 km/h expected, stronger in coastal areas and over higher ground. Wave overtopping in coastal areas.
• Valid: 01:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023 to 17:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023
• Issued: 10:58 Monday 10/04/2023
• 
  
• Northern Ireland Warnings

Yellow - Wind Warning for Antrim, Down

• UK Met Office Weather Warning (www.metoffice.gov.uk)
• A period of strong winds bringing the potential for some disruption later on Tuesday and perhaps into the early hours of Wednesday.
• Valid: 15:00 Tuesday 11/04/2023 to 03:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023
• Issued: 10:37 Sunday 09/04/2023
• Updated: 10:58 Monday 10/04/2023
• 
  

Meteorite58

Yeah turned out Tues not as windy in general than earlier modelled, but ARPEGE still showing it to be quite windy but this is a bit out on its own for now and then it doesn't show it as windy on Weds but the other models are in fair agreement and maybe bringing more counties into the yellow wind warning level. The SW possibly in the high Yellow range touching Orange in coastal areas perhaps.

Meteorite58

I edited the title as it doesn't look like this system will have the same impacts as earlier thought.

AROME showing blustery squally conditions later Tues sweeping up the country topping up the rainfall totals with heavy localized rainfalls. ICON captures this also to some extent.

Meteorite58

ECM 06Z bring more counties into the Yellow Warning range on Weds, high end in parts. Could see some counties Orange yet.

.Donegal.

In the latest update possibility of severe gales for the SE of Ulster

Tuesday:

The morning dry with some sunshine at first, then cloud and heavy rain spreading from west in the afternoon. Gales, perhaps severe in southeast, later.

adocholiday

Yellow warning issued for the east coast for tomorrow evening

Meteorite58

European models a bit stronger, ARPEGE probably a fair average, very windy in the SW early Weds, windy and blustery across the country during Weds with heavy squally showers.

adocholiday

Strange that no yellow warning was issued for tomorrow for more counties. The forecast average winds and gusts for Wicklow at least are the same if not stronger for tomorrow afternoon than the winds today.

Edit: never mind they've issued it now!

chris2007

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Leinster, Cavan, Donegal, Monaghan, Leitrim, Roscommon, Sligo, Tipperary, Waterford

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Very strong northwest winds developing. Widespread gusts of between 90 and 110 km/h expected, stronger in exposed areas.

Valid: 08:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023 to 20:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023

adocholiday

Status Orange - Wind warning for Kerry

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Stormy for a time with damaging gusts in excess of 110km/h
• Valid: 02:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023 to 08:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023
• Issued: 15:54 Tuesday 11/04/2023

Status Orange - Wind warning for West Clare

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Stormy for a time with damaging gusts in excess of 110km/h
• Valid: 02:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023 to 05:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023
• Issued: 15:54 Tuesday 11/04/2023

Looking like a rough 24 hours or so ahead, have we ever had an orange wind warning in April before? A pity because the new leaves on the large horse chestnut I have in the garden have just unfurled and I reckon this spell is going to do a serious number on them now.

seanin4711

Building an ark here in Galway since 10am

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120465497#Comment_120465497

Yes, Storm Hannah in April 2019 which was also a red for Kerry.

Interesting how they're singling out "West" Clare.

SleetAndSnow

Have headed down to west cork from the city to "Storm chase" haha, right on the coast. Will be interesting to see the conditions, haven't had a storm in quite a while! Was lashing on the way down, sunny spells now but winds building. Have charged up numerous phones and powerbanks anyway just incase

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120465599#Comment_120465599

Ah yes had forgotten, just went back to the old thread there 40 pages of posts. It was a fairly significant event and in late April too, with some red warnings in the mix. Don't think this is shaping up to be as bad thankfully.

lucalux

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120465599#Comment_120465599

One step closer to more localised (and possibly relevant) warnings? here's hoping

squarecircles

So Met Eireann dont name storms anymore even if they reach orange criteria it seems.

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120465701#Comment_120465701

Conspiracy theory with no foundation whatsoever: They want to have no named storm this year so they can say climate change is having an inordinate impact on the weather and increase Met Eireann's funding to have a working Shannon Radar...

.Donegal.

Donegal had an orange wind warning a couple of months ago and they didn’t name it which made sense to me as it was nothing worth naming. I thought orange warnings started at 120kmh but these two issues today mention above 110kmh so not quite the same(unless they changed it). I think they were county specific about a previous warning recently as well, west galway or something like that.