Tues 11th/ Weds 12th April 2023 strong winds, warnings likely.
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07-04-2023 12:49pm#1
ECM about the most consistent I would think with track and wind speeds, GFS has eased off again on the 06Z, had been showing very strong winds on previous run- lot of chopping and changing, UKMO very strong and stormy overland but cant take it too literally this far out as prone to very much overdoing it in the early runs. ICON was consistent in its approach similar to the ECM if a lot stronger but has eased off on strength this morning and giving it a more ragged look with winds at different intervals. GEM a bit out on its own with a different look all together on latest run. Australian model showing a very strong wind event also.
Can see that the storm deepens very rapidly and is still deepening at landfall. Taking a reading of probably about 1000 mb at 99hrs and 961hPa at 120hrs giving a drop of about 40mb in less than 24hrs. Formed along and exiting the left side of a very fast jet positioned to bring it close or over us. Fairly strong thermal gradient also brining in cold airs with it giving the chance of some wintry showers plus convective heavy showers with hail and will see if thunderstorms possible.
Would think at this stage a fair chance of strong winds. Will see how the models progress with this.
Just seen this on Met Eireanns site:
TUESDAY: Wet and windy on Tuesday with wind warnings likely to be issued. There is potential for impactful conditions so stay up to date with the forecast for your local area.
Post edited by Meteorite58 on11
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UKMO is unrelenting in its depiction of what this might look like although could easily be still overdoing it at this stage, ICON back looking like ECM and UKMO, will see what the ECM looks like shortly. Still too soon to know exactly how strong or exact tract.
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ECM just rolling out and has a different look and shape and not as strong on this run, maybe an outlier compared to the previous runs. Looks like forming that bit later and deepening as it has moved pass Ireland so to speak. Less deep also. Will just have to wait and see. GFS still keeping a smaller version to the South of us keeping the strongest winds offshore. So a big spread again.
ARPGE 12Z Just getting there and showing a deepening storm moving into the SW with strong winds but too early for this model just yet.
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It turns out the GFS has been the most consistent of the models this far bringing the system mainly into the UK. ECM has lost all its shape and consistency with this and is undergoing new processing of the data. UKMO changing the look of it, still showing quite windy weather at times, ICON had totally eased off but back showing something stronger this morning. ARPEGE ( on the 06Z brushing off the S , SE of Ireland ) more like the GFS.
The Jet looks to be taking a more Southerly direction so the energy/ system seems to be following a similar route. We haven't seen how this will finally look but for now anyway the threat of a severe storm is greatly diminished, still a chance of strong winds for a time and also it is possible that there will be heavy rain for a time, but even now hard to know how this will pan out .
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It isn't over yet according to the latest UKMO, deepening system crossing Ireland brining very strong winds and some heavy falls of rain. Still not seeing the finished article though, chopping and changing to come . ICON showing stronger winds now also but not as strong as the UKMO, will see what the ECM offers later. GFS 12Z still more or less the same track but possibly not as strong
Met Office still mentioning the potential and the uncertainty.
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Actually the ICON 12Z much stronger than the 06Z and taking a similar route as the UKMO, different shape to it but the potential there for something quite windy now .
The GFS ARPEGE not showing it to such extent.
ECM back looking a bit more organised with two areas of Lp deepening/ merging but in a different place again , stronger winds but nothing extreme on this run.
Plenty of changeable charts to come, probably the hardest to model when formed of the Jet like that.
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More changes in the model output this morning. ARPEGE, GFS looking very windy at times Tues and Weds, UKMO's track takes the strongest winds offshore but windy also at times in places Weds, ICON windy Weds, ECM windy Weds but not extreme.
So GFS and ARPEGE have shifted the track of the system, which they are showing to be a complex arrangement of two areas of LP deepening over Ireland, ARPEGE at this stage keeping two center's whereas the GFS shows them to merge but both showing similar winds up there in the high Yellow and into Orange warning level but all subject to change.
Certainly no cross model agreement ,ECM , ICON and UKMO would have to come more inline to have any certainty but I would think that they are heading towards some spells of windy if not very windy weather.
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Cant ignore how strong some of the models look on the latest runs but still not resolved, ECM will tell a lot soon. Probably one of the hardest things to model when an area of LP drops like a stone coming off the Jet . It would seem there is an area of LP forming rapidly with a wave off it forming rapidly also into another area of LP which in turn deepens rapidly. The two areas of LP more or less tied together and pirouetting around each other and possibly/ probably merging into a larger area of Lp in the end. So the timing strength, track is changing quite a bit but perhaps starting to see what this might resemble Tue /Weds.
ARPEGE, UKMO are showing storm force winds along coastal counties and overland. WRF- NMM very strong winds overland, GFS strong winds overland, ICON down on Tues but strong on Weds overland. ECM out shortly , earlier was showing bouts of windy conditions in the Yellow range.
So potential for a wind event with warnings of at least in the Orange level at times, widespread yellow. Hard one to forecast as there will be periods of strong winds, cyclonic in nature so coming from different directions.
Some heavy rain at times also and wind driven to boot. Very cold uppers so convective showers with hail and thunderstorms possible and maybe a bit wintry on high ground / Mountains.
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