Why I'll say no to a united ireland

Jim2007

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120471299#Comment_120471299

Naive.... so I wasted my time studying constitutional law..... Having worked on couple of elections, I have no doubt that the Irish people are very well able to figure out what is in their best interests. And I'm pretty sure it won't be anything that you'll be happy about. Blaming the media, the politicians, etc... is the stuff of people who can't accept the decision of the voters and believing their excuses is the naive part..

Peregrinus

Furze99: Imposing an 80% supermajority requirement in a border poll would violate the GFA, which provides for the question to be decided by a simple majority. Plus it's an inherently silly idea. Suppose there was (say) a 75% vote in favour of unification, but NI was nevertheless kept in the UK against its clearly expressed will; how do you suppose that would play out? NI would be ungovernable. Instability and violence would be inevitable. Why would we want that? More to the point, why would the UK government want it? And they're the ones who will be running any border poll. So, no, there won't be a supermajority requirement. You personally might decide to oppose reunification if you felt the majority in favour in NI was not great enough, but neither the UK nor the IRL governments will take that position

FrancieBrady: I agree that the IRL referendum will most likely be a constitutional amendment referendum in the usual form, with a question that looks like the one you have posted. The substance of the amendment to be put to the people, of course, remains to be seen; that'll have to depend on the terms agreed for effecting reunification.

As for the NI poll, the GFA doesn't specify the exact wording, but given what the GFA does say it will most likely be something like "Do you agree that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland?" It won't seek approval for the negotiated and agreed terms of reunification because, at the point where the NI poll is held, they won't have been negotiated or agreed.

The question arises as to whether there should be a second poll in NI, after reunification proposals have been agreed, held at the same time as the IRL referendum, and seeking approval for the agreed reunification proposals. We can't know at this point whether there will or will not be a second poll, but I would think that it's very possible, perhaps even likely. And if there is then, yeah, the question will probably be along the lines you suggest.

In general: I'm not impressed by the suggestion that the IRL voters will reject reunification because of the risk of instability. If (as will be the case) NI has already voted in favour of reunification, then if IRL votes against there will be considerable instability anyway. Either way, there's a risk of instability. We're just going to have to put on our big boy pants and deal with it. Thinking we can vote it away is delusional. Irish voters are fairly sophisticated, and will grasp this without too much difficulty.

Sam Russell

There is no threat of a Unionist terror campaign because they are basically a crime gang, and only existed before because of the backing they received from the British military. The PNSI already know who they are.

Costs are dependent on the British Gov - do they want rid or not. The GFA makes no mention of a financial settlement.

However, there can be no UI without a united NI. They would ned to get rid of the peace walls - and the need for them. They need to dial down the nasty political point scoring that is founded on deep sectarianism. That will be the hard part.

The referendum in Ireland will carry with a huge majority if the settlement is in any way just - provided it looks like it will pass in NI (or already has passed).

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120472135#Comment_120472135

There will never be a 'united NI'. Partition was designed to keep it divided and Unionism made further adjustments to ensure their supremacy. As we can see, they would do that again in a heartbeat.

The only solution is a managed period (by the two governments) were the effects of partition are undone. If moderate Unionists are assured their rights and identity will be respected and protected in law and constitutionally, I don't think they will have an issue ultimately, while they might not like it.

They have already accepted that the 'wishes of the majority' hold sway in the GFA as has nationalism.

Sam Russell

By United NI. I mean a dialling down of sectarianism - not a political unification - that is not possible in Ireland - even at the County Council level.

If everything of any sort is seen by one side or the other as a zero sum game where any advantage by the other side must be opposed as it means a loss for our side. That kind of politics is best left to the infant classes in schools.

Let the adults take control, and compromise for the good of all. That is of course asking a lot when name calling is the major sport by the loudest voices.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120472231#Comment_120472231

Yes that's along the lines of what needs to happen, a major dialling down of sectarianism and compromise for the good of all.

As we can see from these threads though, it's a very big ask. Politics in NI is as much about keeping on top of your own pile of voters and emphasising how existentially important it is for them to keep voting for you. Place is a basket case in many ways. Even those in favour of a UI would despair at the carry on.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120472231#Comment_120472231

That is the toxic legacy of partition. It's like a release valve that will keep occurring until, like here in the south, there is no point/perceived gain in being sectarian.

I may be biased but I am happy one side is at least keeping it out of their political policy. Only one side is overtly blocking what the GFA was meant to deliver.

And I think the decline in optimism for devolved government reflects that. It has plummeted since Brexit. NI is going to be in a long term state of political paralysis and failure.

Calls for trying another way will only get louder.

AyeGer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120471877#Comment_120471877

I don’t like brightness off the colours especially the orange. I’d rather an Irish version of the Norwegian, Swedish, Finnish or Icelandic flags with a darker green and maybe white or gold cross.

Or even just the green with a gold harp.

AyeGer

I think in the event of Irish unity the majority of pragmatic Protestants will settle in much like the Dublin and other southern Protestants have over the last 100 years. The difficulty is just getting them to accept that they will be absolutely fine in a new unified Ireland in the first place.

It’s starting to look like mainland Britain doesn’t really want them anymore, if they ever really did anyway.

Sam Russell

The event of Irish Unity will be the result of a majority of those in NI voting for it, so many former Unionist will have voted for it, presumably because they will see a UI is a good thing for themselves and their fellow NI citizens, most of whom are already Irish Citizens. The current setup is unsustainable, because the subsidy will eventually be turned off.

A UI will be a new start for the nation, but a continuation of the Ireland that has changed so much in the last 25 years to be unrecognisable from the Ireland of fifty years ago or a hundred years ago.

NI has also changed in the last 25 years following the GFA and the cessation of violence. However, the required social change has not occurred to the same extent as in Ireland. We can only hope that progress can be made by dialling back sectarianism. Why does one side object to benefits and progress of the other side? It is school yard stuff.

tayto lover

Of course there will be a United Ireland. People in the middle ground will ultimately take the power from the violent elements on both sides.

blanch152

https://sluggerotoole.com/2023/04/12/a-wise-insightful-examination-of-the-perils-and-possibilities-of-irish-unity/

This book review suggests that this book would be a good place to start when considering the possibility of a united Ireland.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120486784#Comment_120486784

Judging from the comments the book seems to be another plaintive cry for a Unionist veto even in a UI.

standardg60

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473935#Comment_120473935

Tbh I've never really liked the tricolor either, it's too tied too republicanism, be it it's initial basis on the French republic or it's connection to one side during the troubles.

We've been quietly dropping any official references to the ROI over the last few years anyway, for example the Irish soccer jersey which has just been Ireland now for a good while.

Personally the flag made up of the four provincial flags would be my preference, it's a lovely flag and should be acceptable to all.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120488729#Comment_120488729

That one or a flag of a single neutral colour would work.

Never had any grá for flags so I wouldn't have issue with the tricolour going.

standardg60

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120488832#Comment_120488832

The old blue with the harp then? Can't see unionists going with green, or maybe they would?

While we're at it with apologies to the OP what else needs to go? The anthem obviously, would we be happy with Ireland's call?

And another question, given a UI would have to allow those living in NI the option of British citizenship as is the case with all entitled to Irish citizenship currently, we would therefore have to allow anyone born in a subsequent UI the option of British citizenship too. Unionists may wish to move to another part of what would be their own country and retain their identity of being British too?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120488922#Comment_120488922

No issue what the flag or anthem is. Neutral colour for flag, no lyric anthem.

British citizenship is in the gift of the British. Up to them really on that one. Anyone living here would automatically be an equal citizen wit everyone else. That is important. Citizenship of somewhere else cannot make you more equal or give you more rights/benefits. That, like partition, would only be a ticking timebomb tbh.

standardg60

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120472008#Comment_120472008

How on earth would anyone vote in favour of a referendum in which the terms of such have yet to be negotiated and agreed?

You wouldn't and nor would i, any BP would have to have the scenario explicitly expressed. There is nothing in the GFA that excludes what the result would actually mean being known beforehand, otherwise it's not worth the paper it's written on.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120489157#Comment_120489157

Once a BP is called the Irish government will make a proposal/white paper on what they propose a UI would be. (Unionists will be invited to give their view on that) The British will make a case for maintaining the Union. And that will be what is voted on.

If successful the two governments are mandated by the GFA to bring forward legislation (that is where the nitty gritty will be thrashed out) in the respective parliaments to give effect to the result.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120489157#Comment_120489157

Read the GFA more carefully.

First point: The GFA requires the SoS to conduct a border poll "if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland". There's nothing in there about delaying a border poll while he hammers out an agreement with the IRL government on the terms of unification. It's an in-principle vote. It's absurd to say that no-one would vote in favour when the terms have yet to be agreed when we can point to a recent historical example of the UK doing exactly that.

Second point: Under the GFA, only if a border poll is carried does SoS have to lay before Parliament "such proposals to give effect to that wish [i.e. the wish of NI for reunification] as may be agreed between Her Majesty's Government in the United Kingdom and the Government of Ireland." While that doesn't explicitly preclude the possibility of the proposals being agreed beforehand, it's kind of hard for the two governments to agree proposals to give effect to NI's wish before they know what NI's wish is. Plus, neither government will want to embark on difficult and likely politically costly negotiations that may very well be irrelevant. Plus plus, if the two governments failed to reach agreement, what then? No border poll? Plus plus plus, IRL government (and nationalists generally) would very much prefer to be conducting these negotiations after a successful border poll; their tactical position would be greatly strengthened, plus there would be some chance that representatives of British-identifying NI people (whose participation in the negotiations is highly desirable) might actually participate.

Inshort, the the GFA does not envisage or easily accommodate, and common sense absolutely rules out, an inter-government agreement on reunification in advance of a border poll.

Sam Russell

Of course, the point about people not voting for a UI because the terms are not agreed is a bit odd, since a BP can only take place after the SoS has been convinced that such a poll is 'likely to pass'.

Now, if the SoS is so minded, then it would appear to be counterintuitive that the outcome depends on any agreement between the Irish Gov and the UK Gov. There is no mention in the GFA of any financial agreement, or any other required settlement.

So, having held the poll, and it being passed, then what?

Does the UK Gov say to the Irish Gov - 'Hey, you have to give us billions and billions, and take over all the debts, pay all the pensions, and social welfare, pay up for all the Gov property, and .. and... ', or do they say 'Hey, thank God we are out of there - how much help can we give you? You will need all the help you can get!'

Given that the SoS has been minded to hold the BP, I think it is more likely that the second version might hold more sway, but of course, Bone Fides is currently in short supply in Westminster, but regimes change.

Peregrinus

If a border poll has already given in-principle approval to reunification, then a UK government will be highly motivated to see reunification effected, and fairly quickly, and they will be motivated to approach negotiations in a spirit of realism and with a desire to reach a workable agreement.

Of course you can't rule out the possibility of a UK government that is incompetent, hostile or a bad faith actor, but how could you? Nor, for that matter, can you rule out the possibility of an Irish government that is incompetent, etc. But a successful border poll creates an environment in which the incentives are in place for the two governments (and other stakeholders) to find an agreement that works. That's as much as the GFA can do, I think.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120490310#Comment_120490310

Expecting the second version is a little naive. Surely, the UK will say, the people have spoken, we are out of here, here are all the problems, debt, pensions, budget deficit, not our problem any more, the people have voted. Now, surely you (Irish government) are not going to ignore the will of the people. Essentially, that is how Brexit ended up as such a bad deal for the UK, the EU (UK) held all the cards, the UK (Northern Ireland) was leaving, and was entitled to nothing but their coat and a shove out the door.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120490553#Comment_120490553

Which is effectively Britain telling Unionists that they are on their own.

Can't see that happening. The one thing the British will want is a clean exit with as little blow back as possible.

Both governments are mandated/obligated by the GFA to give effect to the wishes of the people.

(iv) affirm that, if in the future, the people of the island of Ireland exercise their right of self-determination on the basis set out in sections (i) and (ii) above to bring about a united Ireland, it will be a binding obligation on both Governments to introduce and support in their respective Parliaments legislation to give effect to that wish;

The British, no more than the Irish government, can walk away from negotiations because of the 'binding obligation. A deal has to be done.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120490553#Comment_120490553

No, the GFA is explicit about this. Even after the people of NI have spoken, the UK has an obligation to lay agreed proposals for reunification before Parliament - agreed with the IRL government, that is. Plus, the border poll outcome creates a political imperative, but not a legal imperative for Ireland - nothing in the GFA says that IRL must incorporate NI whenever the UK decides unilaterally to leave. So UK can't simply unilaterally hand NI over. They'll be highly motivated to reach an agreement on reunification, but they do need to reach one.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120490861#Comment_120490861

I get what you are saying, but the realpolitik is that the rUK public will be saying, well, off with you then. That is the reality, that is what happened with Brexit, the EU said the same. That is the lesson of history.

You can imagine that rUK will be generous, you can point to them wanting a good relationship, but all that could be said about the EU with regard to Brexit. A border poll yes changes the political landscape and the only recent history to compare to is Brexit, and the one leaving got hammered.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473999#Comment_120473999

I take from above that you are not a member of the anglican branch of churches down south.

'Settle in'?? The reality for southern protestants in the new free state and subsequent republic was a significant reduction in numbers, people burnt out of houses and driven away out of fear, churches burnt. Followed by the slow stranglehold of the ne temere decree designed to obligate all offspring from mixed marriages to be brought up Catholic.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120490885#Comment_120490885

The British will be 'leaving' Ireland.

And it won't matter what the UK people think (I think they will see any deal that gets them out as an investment BTW) the UK government is obligated to do a satisfactory deal. Again, they cannot walk away or they break the GFA, something they have trenchantly avoided doing.

DownByTheGarden

I think we all say we will vote for a united Ireland just for a bit of peace and quiet.

I think when we are in the polling booth the reality of what will happen with a united Ireland will sway the vote to a no. But when you come out of the polling booth and someone asks you how you voted, most will just say they voted yes, for an easy life.

The reality is though that we will never even reach the polling stage.

Just one bomb in the North, or worse, in the South, close to polling day will put any idea of a united Ireland firmly out of reach for people. Nobody wants that.

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120471971#Comment_120471971

I agree with you, but I think the cost will be hidden. Basically the "Empire" who wants to get rid of Northern Ireland will gladly pay to get rid of it. So there will probably be about 20 or 30 years worth of payments in there to disguise the financial impact on Dublin