House price predictions for 2023

RichardAnd

No change in prices

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121482652#Comment_121482652

I don't think that the government is paying too much attention to popular opinion at all. I think it draws its support mainly from people who are either unaffected by the housing crisis or, God help us, actively benefit from it.

That aside, I agree with your sentiment. The causes of the housing crisis are quite self-evident if one is honest.

Caquas

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121482702#Comment_121482702

It would make a good opinion poll question.

Everyone would say they are concerned about the housing crisis but how many are really affected?

It goes well beyond those currently looking for housing i.e. those obviously most affected. Most home owners I know are concerned that they won’t be able to move if they had to e.g. for work, or they are trying to help their adult kids to move out (love them dearly but….). The few who are landlords are selling up because they judge that prices have peaked and the game is no longer worth it.

The failure of the government to resolve the housing crisis is not due to complacency or “drawing votes from those who are unaffected” . Some things just seem to be beyond them. Look at the HSE.

Thargor

Prices rise by 5-10%

Just posting to see what I voted for back then, Im so glad I bought this year though, coming up on 1 year in the house, wouldn't trade it for anything no matter what prices do.

Thargor

Prices rise by 5-10%

5-10% is obviously wrong based on the available statistics but purely anecdotally Im Limerick and Galway focused and they've gone up more than that, I still get alerts for every house that comes up in Limerick or Galway, I paid 270k for mine in Limerick and anything like it is 300k+ before the bidding even starts now.

DubCount

No change in prices

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121484066#Comment_121484066

Dublin is somewhere between zero and minus 1-2%. The rest of the country is plus a couple of % with some pockets over 5%.

For all the government bashing about the housing crisis, I think this years additional supply has been enough to stop major inflation.

Caquas

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121484091#Comment_121484091

Do you believe prices in Dublin are lower this year?

That's what the CSO appears to say but I never met anyone who is in the market and shares their view.

RichardAnd

No change in prices

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121483767#Comment_121483767

I'll be honest and say I don't know many people who are doing very well. I have one uncle who's making a tidy bit being a slum-king on the side, but most of my friends and cousins are paying huge rents, have decades long mortgages or are living with mum and dad in the 30s. I myself own a house on my own, which I grant is rare these days, but I don't feel too secure in it, and it wasn't really the most suitable property to buy. We'll see what happens...

To your final paragraph, whilst I do genuinely believe that there are sinister individuals in power here (no names), I think that most of our problems are simply down to incompetence. As I've said elsewhere, there are no consequences for failure in the civil service, and politicians rarely get held to account in any meaningful way. Add to that the fact that many positions are these days filled based on box-ticking rather than merit and perhaps it's not hard to understand why seemingly insane policy is continuously enacted.

DubCount

No change in prices

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121484475#Comment_121484475

I think anything under 400-450 is not reducing in Dublin but I reckon higher end properties are bringing the average slightly below zero.

Caquas

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121484586#Comment_121484586

Do you have any examples of higher-end properties selling for less than a year ago?

Myhome.ie has a different, admittedly not unbiased, view but it is in line with my own impression of the Dublin market in recent months.

Even in Dublin, where valuations had become most stretched, asking prices rose 1.3%

Asking prices don't necessarily translate into sale prices but this report also claims that buyers are actually paying 3% over asking, compared to just 1% over asking at the start of the year. Asking prices are leading indicators and this trend may show up in the revised CSO numbers early next year.

https://img.myhome.ie/prod/uploads/MyHomeQ3-2023-FINAL.pdf

t5max

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121484586#Comment_121484586

Hi,

based in Dublin and have recently gone sale agreed, selling my own home which would be considered at the higher end of the market, went sale agreed at at just over 10% above asking.

Am also sale agreed ( buying ) another property, again considered at the higher end of the market with final offer accepted nearly 12% over asking.

The selling side was easy , with 6, 8 and sometimes 10 buyers turning up at viewings, the buying side was very difficult being 1 of the 8-10 buyers turning up at viewings and full on biding wars involving multiple interested parties . .

Being in the middle of a buying and selling process over the past 6-8 months at the higher end , I can't get my head around statistics indicating that Dublin prices are dropping.

SharkMX

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121484091#Comment_121484091

No way had it gone down or even stayed steady in the parts of Dublin that we are looking in. And thats almost everywhere except the really expensive parts like Blackrock, Dalkey etc :)

DubCount

No change in prices

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121485513#Comment_121485513

https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/prices/residentialpropertypriceindex/

I dont see any drop off at the "lower" end of the market (if you can call half a million lower end), so the logic says it must be the higher end that is bringing the average down

RichardAnd

No change in prices

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121485534#Comment_121485534

I think a bit of wild over-bidding of property cooled off after the lockdowns fully ended and somewhat "normal" conditions returned, but I've still heard of enormous price inflation on houses from friends and family. Maybe this phantom drop-off comes from a 2 million euro house going for 1.9 million?

SharkMX

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121485686#Comment_121485686

Chris DeBurghs house. For sale at €12.5m. Sold for about €9m.

Paddock wood house Killiney Asking €9.75M Sold for €8.5M

A house in Howth. Asking €10m sold for €7.5m

There were a few more but i cant be bothered listing them. I just googled for them.

So obvious , house prices are falling. :)

RichardAnd

No change in prices

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121486364#Comment_121486364

Jerry Ryan's former home also failed to sell for 2 million. I'm reminded of that clip from last Christmas where Rishi Sunak asked a homeless man what line of business he was in.

SharkMX

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121486385#Comment_121486385

You just reminded me of last Christmas when I was out with my brother in the local for a few pints.

Met the old school bully and he comes up to us and says to my brother "Life must be great for you. I see your brand new car sitting across the road. Its well for you."

My brother says to him "What the F are you on about. You got your house for free. I owe half a million euro on mine. You are half a million euro better off than me and you never worked a day in your life. Fuk off with yourself now, you are a bit small for trying to bully people now that we've all grown up, except you.".

Half the pub spit their pints out laughing.

Caquas

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121486364#Comment_121486364

When houses selling for €9 Million, €8.5 Million and €7.5 Million are presented as evidence that house prices are falling, we are in deep trouble.

At this level, the market is rarefied and asking prices are speculative. Most sellers fortunate enough to sell multi-million properties will pop champagne if they get within 80% of their initial asking.

Anyway, so few houses sell for over €5Million that they have virtually no effect on the CSO statistics. The September CSO statistics tracked data on 4,255 dwellings purchased that month. Only one was reported as over €5 Million and that was bogus (€29.6 Million for a flat in Clonsilla!). A place in Malahide was sold for €5Million and a dozen others sold for €2Million plus.

The divergence between the CSO statistics and the experience of people in the Dublin market arises because the CSO is reporting on purchase prices for properties sold, not comparing the prices achieved over time with like-for-like properties.

If the mix of properties changes, that will change the CSO index. I think the increasing predominance of apartments in Dublin new builds has distorted the index.

JohnnyChimpo

No change in prices

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121486555#Comment_121486555

And the whole pub applauded.

That brother's name? Albert Einstein.

Timing belt

Prices rise by 5-10%

House prices up 2.3% in the 12 months to October… Those predictions in the 0-5% looks likely to be correct

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexoctober2023/

Caquas

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121491660#Comment_121491660

Again, prices reportedly fell in Dublin.

Over the year, house prices in Dublin fell by 0.7 per cent while apartment prices were down by 0.4 per cent. The highest house price growth in Dublin was in Fingal at 0.8 per cent, while Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown saw a decline of 1.5 per cent.

October is a significant month for the PPR when it includes properties which went sale agreed in the peak season but I still believe the Dublin trend reflects a changed mix in the Dublin market (more small apartments, fewer exiting houses). Otherwise, how to explain the consistent impression among buyers and sellers that prices in Dublin rose this year?

Timing belt

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121491962#Comment_121491962

its more do with new properties v existing than a the mix of house types

Caquas

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121492045#Comment_121492045

Thanks.

I now see that there's a huge divergence since 2020 in the price trends for new and existing properties.

The 12 month price trend for existing properties went negative in 2020 but bounced backed dramatically, peaking at almost +18% increase in Q1 2022 before falling back just as steeply to -1% in Q3 2023. The trend for new properties after 2020 seems completely disconnected - rising more gradually to reach +11% in Q1 2023 and remaining close to that level by Q3 2023.

The dip in 2020 for new and existing properties was probably pandemic-related and so a bounce-back was predictable. But why did prices for existing properties increase so much more rapidly post-pandemic and why the sharp reversal since Q1 2022?

Has anyone in the media commented on this?

paulieeye

Prices rise by 10-15%

hi

ballyharpat

Prices fall by 0-5%

hey-checking what I voted

herbalplants

Prices fall by 20+%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121494897#Comment_121494897

Prices increased for existing stock because of lack of housing nothing else. To be honest the stock of houses is very poor run down cost very high for the size and quality etc. Seen the other day a leprechaun cottage in Dalkey looking for 900k, you probably couldn't swing a cat around.

Ray Palmer

Prices rise by 10-15%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121484545#Comment_121484545

There is a huge difference dependent on what you doing for a living and what those you know do. I don't really know anybody doing badly so if I was to go with my own personal experiences I would have a very skewed view of Ireland. However I had a lot of access to information about the general population regarding salaries and state payments. This makes more me aware of things I wouldn't have personal experience with.

There is also radical differences for people on very similar wages and employment dependent on when they bought their homes or if they have at all. Recently a more senior person than me bought a house one street over from my home. He is 8 years younger than me he is paying 180k more and 26 years mortgage at a higher rate while I have 2 years left. This makes things radically different financially going forward. He is still doing well. I also have a friend that bought their home 4 years before we did and they managed to trade up to a much nicer home with a much smaller mortgage eventually selling up and buy a home in France for cash and be mortgage free 10 years ago.

There is a lot of volatility socially in Ireland due to housing. We now have doctors and lawyers living next door to generational social welfare families. The grandchild of the original occupants of social housing living next to a privately sold social housing. In theory it is what the government want as per modern social housing being part of private built estates. The difference is the gentrification of areas causes locals to get annoyed as they can't afford to buy in the areas they grew up in.

As for civil servants being somehow immune from bad performance it is really not true. They may not get fired but that is equally true in large companies if somebody makes a mistake. However it is very rare that any one person is at fault for anything in any large orgainsation in the first place. There are so many different restrictions for anybody making decisions that there are only bad choices and then people will complain no matter what. Most of the time there is nobody to blame as it is a cumulative effect of other decisions that may or may not be directly related. The Wire did show the politician thinking he could change everything but reality kicks in and while the drama about conspiring against each is nonsense it gives an idea.

RichardAnd

No change in prices

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121498105#Comment_121498105

A very good posting. Thank you.

markodaly

Prices fall by 0-5%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121482672#Comment_121482672

I predicted 0-5% fall, as in a negligible decline.

I thought this year would have been a lot tougher economically but the robustness of the world economy has surprised many.

I wonder how 2024 will shape up?

JohnnyChimpo

No change in prices

Good work, past me. Between the increase nationally vs the apparent fall in Dublin prices, I'll take it as a W, even though "increasing 0-5%" would have been more accurate.

Imagine it'll be much the same next year

StevenToast

Prices rise by 0-5%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121498389#Comment_121498389

2024 will be the same as 2023....

Take it from someone who got their prediction bang on last year......