House price predictions for 2023

The increase in LTI from next year will, as you say, cost people more but it needs to be seen in the context of after tax income. A couple on 90k would have a take home pay of about €5.9k a month. Even with bigger debt and higher rates that repayment is still less than 30% is their disposable income.

The 3.5x was never binding from a repayment capacity perspective so I would expect, if nothing else changed, prices to go up to reflect the extra borrowing capacity. There will be no increase in real purchasing power as this is a bump everyone will get (directly for ftbs, indirectly for ssbs through bigger profits when they sell). Prices to increase but we'll still only able to buy the same home as before.

Inflation is at 10.7%.

Can anybody point out any time in history that inflation was brought down to 2% without high interest rates?

I get what you are saying, but if rates go up to levels of 8% do you think countries like Italy or Greece can raise and finance debt at that level?

Wages are rising.

FRANKFURT, Dec 31 (Reuters) - Euro zone wages are growing quicker than earlier thought and the European Central Bank must prevent this from adding to already high inflation, ECB President Christine Lagarde told a Croatian newspaper.

You've zero appreciation for what a WW actually is. We are , thankfully, a long way from WW yet.

The supply and demand sides of the housing market are still a long way from equilibrium. That coupled with the high cost of building makes the supply side a major problem. The demand is still there and while interest rates may dent that somewhat, people need a place to live, whether that be rental or PPR.

Do you see the supply side improving?

People are putting a lot of weight on tech workers and their impact on property availability. I don't believe it's anywhere near as high as people are saying, particularly if you view it from a national rather than a Dublin perspective.

The Ukrainian situation isn't going to make property magically appear from thin air, no matter how you look at it.

Your last two points make little sense when,again, people who sell houses themselves have to live somewhere. Unless you are talking about institutional Investors or vulture funds which again would have a relatively low impact nationally.

Theres nothing there that will actually increase the amount of new properties being built to match demand which is ultimately why we are where we are.

Things may level out but I don't see a major crash like many expect.

Too early to call it for 2023 but the national figure will probably come in below my 5-10% prediction.

The latest CSO figure of 1.4% inflation for the 12 months to September may be close to the final number for 2023 but CSO data is provisional for the months of July, August and September which are crucial months when the sales agreed in May, June and July (the busiest months in the property market) will show up in the Stamp Duty data. I wouldn't be surprised if this provisional data is revised upward before the end of the year.

House price inflation outside Dublin is close to the lower end of my prediction but Dublin prices seem to have hit a ceiling i.e. buyers have reached the limits of their appetite/capacity for borrowing. The 1.9% fall in Dublin prices would mean a drop of around 5% in real terms in the 12 months to September.

I called a "no change", which seems about right. As it was 12 months ago, there is simply too much demand for any reversal in prices. The same seems likely for 2024, but we'll see next year...

1.4% according to the CSO:

Of course, this is an average figure. I've not been looking as I bought in 2022, but from what I hear from friends in Dublin, things have worsened.

I think you are right. We are looking at both houses and apartments. Both are going up, a lot, over the time we've been looking. But there are less houses now than apartments for sale. It wasnt like that last year. And last year there were a lot of houses in the 600 to 900k range where we are looking (not that we could afford them), but i notice there is just one in that range now. There are lots of very expensive apartments after coming on the market in the last 6 months too, way out of our range for an apartment.

Im used to it now. I just think its funny how people have polarized viewpoints and cant see what is really happen, nor be able to reason out why its happening. No way to fix anything until people open their eyes about causes and effects instead of just reacting. And our government sadly are slaves to popular opinion, therefore will never be able to make good decisions.