FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Billcarson

Last yr it was the 22nd before we finally knew what the weather would be like over Christmas. That was the day the door was finally closed on any potential cold spell. Probably have to wait a few more days this yr aswell to know.

WolfeEire

I remember 2004 Christmas showing similar potential but couldn't quite nail down whether a northerly plunge would materialise in the days running up to it. We ended up with snowfall across many parts of the country (see below) on Christmas Day. No setup is identical but there remains potential. The main stickler this year, like last year, is the area of high pressure to our south keeping the cold back.

A brief cold incursion with rather benign conditions is still favoured but further changes (to milder or colder) are inevitable. This evening's runs will show more of a convergence with models I think one way or another. At the moment, they are split.

Villain

Certainly a chance of cold blast 26th to 29th on ensembles.

WolfeEire

GFS has cold arriving Christmas Eve. Lets see what the ensembles say later

Gonzo

I didn't realize that Meteociel is ahead of Wetterzentrale till now in rolling out the GFS.

GFS 12z so far getting some low level cold in for Christmas. This mornings insanely cold run will likely be nowhere to be seen.

Proper cold gets into the northern half of the country by the 27th.

and this does look a bit more unstable.

Gonzo

Could we have another Storm Emma on our hands?

If that verified it would potentially be an absolute snow maker.

GEM 12z and Icon is another mild one. We can't get excited about the GFS stuff yet.

Donegal Ken

As things stand I would say we are heading towards another colder spell of weather starting Christmas eve. Come Wednesday evening we should have a fair idea. I think we will have a colder ECMWF weather model 12Z run this evening.

As Gonzo says the airmass looks more unstable also. I have a feeling we will see a more of a risk of snowfall for places early next week.

Interesting few hours ahead.

Gonzo

GFS 12z operational has completed and stays cold throughout from Stephens Day to January 4th. A varying amount of cold from low level cold to mid level cold , would be marginal at times and other times just right for snow (if precipitation allows). Alot of frost with this one again but maybe more in the way of precipitation than the recent cold spell.

At the moment I wouldn't get too excited, this is likely to finish up in the coldest range of the ensembles and we have no support from either the GEM or Icon operationals. This evenings ECM I'm guessing is going to be another mild one. We may have to wait till tomorrow or Wednesday to see if the GFS is trying to lead us down the garden path or could we get some cross model agreement going for real cold next week.

nacho libre

The GFS seems to be responding to the MJO signal by building a Greenland High, if that has been overegged then we won't get the Greenland high. A proper Greenland high forces the cold a bit further south. We really need the ECM to start showing something smiliar this evening. The UKMO is steadfast in having none of it. If we don't see models trending towards the GFS outlook soon, then it's inevitable the GFS will flip or at least meet the others half way in the next day or two.

Meteorite58

ECM 0Z was much colder this morning taking on the look of yesterdays GFS 18Z if it has good similarities to todays 12Z GFS then I would think something could be on perhaps .

All eyes on the rollout of the ECM 12Z 😀

WolfeEire

GEM has a colder mean than the 06z for the 25-27th.

esposito

Nothing that exciting on the ECM 12z. If it’s not showing something similar to the GFS by tomorrow morning I will go with the view that Christmas will be coolish at best.

Gonzo

ECM 12z is another relatively mild one, a bit cool at times and nothing wintry no surprises.

nacho libre

That 10 day ECM chart is a great chart if you love our normal winter pattern. However If you are hoping for a noteworthy cold spell it seems like a horror show. It's a plausible outcome if the two layers of the Vortex connect. Let's hope it's wrong!

Gonzo

I feel tomorrow will be the day we will know whats what. It's worrying that ECM, Icon and UKMO and to some extent the GEM continue to print mild or slightly cool/average charts while the GFS continues to push cold or very charts which are mostly outliers or in the coldest range of the ensembles. Tomorrow could bring the other models in line with the GFS or the GFS will flip back to mild/average and then cross model agreement for a very uneventful Christmas week weatherwise with the Atlantic firmly in charge.

If the GFS flips back to average/mild conditions this new GFS is going to get even more criticism than it already has.

Edit: looking at the ECM ensembles it appears the operational run is in the mildest range from Christmas Eve.

nacho libre

I must say the latest ec46 is a surprise considering tonights ECM. It shows a blocking signal persisting through much of January.

icesnowfrost

Well the pub run is terrible for a cold spell. However it’s only one run and I’m not convinced yet. I see the cold winning out but not until about the 28th or so. Exciting model watching over the next 2 to 3 days.

Gonzo

GFS pub run is one of the mildest in it's range and it appears we are losing some colder members to mild. The Christmas week cold spell is looking more in doubt now. If all models are showing standard cool to mild stuff tomorrow we can probably go back to just searching for the next cold spell.

The Atlantic is getting it's act together and the strong heights over Europe are making sure any attempt of cold air moving south over us will have it's work cut out. If we do manage to pull in some proper cold weather it may be closer to January 1 than Christmas Day.

nacho libre

I think we can more or less rule out a White Christmas now. The GFS holds alot of promise towards the New Year and beyond, but I fear it will move further to the ECM by tomorrow. It's very frustrating to have that very cold not far away but we are seemingly unable to tap into it on most model output. Maybe the morning runs will bring a pleasant surprise!

Billcarson

Atm looks like a better chance of a white new yr then a white Xmas imo. In many ways id nearly prefer a white new yr to a white Xmas. Might very well end up with nether of course. But it is interesting model viewing atm.

Gonzo

just to update, we now have cross model agreement for an Atlantic driven Christmas period, the GFS has backed off the cold spell and now just shows a typical Irish Christmas instead so things should stay relatively mild between now and first week of January 2023 with maybe a few cool days in between with some night frost. I wouldn't call this a bust as the other models never went for a Christmas cold spell, only the GFS send us chasing a phantom cold spell.

WolfeEire

06z GEFS ensembles mean temp for Christmas period slightly colder overall than the overnight run. Suggesting daytime temps will be a degree or two below normal for the time of year. Generally about 3-6c, slightly higher in southern and southwestern coastal districts. All models show a glancing northwesterly plunge of cold air for 26-27th. Nothing exceptional in any of them in terms of deep cold or snowfall.

Meteorite58

Looks like a brief push of milder air at the end of the week ( windy in Southern counties of Christmas eve ) and currently the ECM and GFS looks cooler for Christmas day and possibly a couple of days after with wintry showers and widespread frosts. Could be seeing a few white mountain tops again by early next week.

I think we are beginning to see a trend now for a few cooler days from around Christmas day .Wouldn't rule out some snowy showers or troughs albeit a bit on the wet side coming in from the NW especially in Northern counties.

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017559#Comment_120017559

You'll take it when the alternative is a washout like last year!

boccy23

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017602#Comment_120017602

Was only just talking about Christmas Day last year. That was some depressing day! Has to be better this year whatever happens.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017623#Comment_120017623

I think it rained non stop all through Christmas Day last year? Hopefully a dryer day this year. Christmas day this year is looking relatively dry other than scattered showers and could be cool in the north and mild towards the south.

Gonzo

GFS precipitation forecast is showing an incredibly wet period between now and New Years week with a conveyer belt of low pressures crossing the country between now and 2023 keeping things cool at times but generally mild. This is one of the wettest 14 day precipitation charts I have ever seen for Ireland, I hope this is overcooked.

nacho libre

Well, considering the GFS was wrong about the cold spell and has been poor prior to its upgrade I am sceptical about that. Of course sods law dictates it will be right about a zonal wet pattern. However looking further ahead it's unusual to see such a strong signal for a Scandi high in the latter stages of the EC46. I wonder what is it seeing? 0f course there is no guarantee it will happen but this long range model did signal the euro heights in advance that has been proven to be the cold killer- we might have experienced a northerly of old but for them.There is a signal for those heights to disappear sometime in January. Let's hope we get some luck in January.

WolfeEire

Met Éireann MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 20 DECEMBER 2022

 

Week 1 (Friday 23 December to Thursday 29 December)

In week one, with low pressure ever present but generally weak and in a generally northeast flow it will be colder than average. It will also be slightly wetter than average in the east and drier than average in the west. Over all potential for hazards is not large but with the colder than average temperatures and the northeast flow, some wintery conditions cannot be ruled out along with some very cold nights again.

 

Week 2 (Friday 30 December to Thursday 05 January)

On Week two, high pressure looks to build to the north and northeast of Ireland placing us in a more temperate southeast flow, temperatures will recover close to average for the time of year and rainfall amounts are expected to be below average across the country. The potential for hazards though the period looks to be low with mostly benign conditions developing however fog may be an issue at times.

 

Week 3 (Friday 06 January to Thursday 12 January)

By week 3 the transient nature of the flow will reintroduce low pressure, in a weak southerly flow pattern slightly above average temperatures and rainfall amounts are expected countrywide. This does look like a very benign pattern though and the potential for hazardous weather looks low.

 

Week 4 (Friday 13 January to Thursday 19 January)

The signal for week 4 is quite weak but with the return of high pressure, predominantly to the west, it will likely be a transitory period. Temperatures will return close to normal, it will be driest in the south and wettest on northern fringes but overall much of the country should see near average rainfall amounts. The potential for hazards looks to be quite low on average across the week.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120018998#Comment_120018998

To use Met Eireanns words, that’s incredibly benign!