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2022 NFL season - Regular Season Thread - Picks etc.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 262 ✭✭ collybyrne



    I disagree with almost everything you've said here! Which is fine by the way. The topic is entirely subjective and full of hypotheticals. It's perfectly legitimate for us to have two differing opinions on this without one of us needing to be "amateurish" or "stupid".

    Surely if a commentator was looking for a reaction they would say something against the popular consensus? I don't remember anyone getting a reaction for saying they should have handed it off to Lynch. As I recall it was considered a statement of the obvious at the time.

    The Patriots had sold out on the run literally the play before that one. Lynch made 5 yards. He only needed one this time.

    Your statement about coaches rarely making bad decisions in no way rebuts what I said. I agree Carroll is a great coach. Even the greats make bad calls from time to time. As for the outcome determining the strength of the decision, that is literally true for every walk of life and particularly so for elite sports. Bad outcome very often equates to bad decision. There's nothing controversial in that.

    Pete Carroll had the option to hand the ball to arguably the best running back of his generation, in the form of his life, behind an O-Line who at that point in the game were on top of a tiring Pats D, at the one yard line, to win a Superbowl. Yes he risked needing to burn a timeout, that risk is still less than the risk of being intercepted on a pass play.

    I'm not trying to convince you I'm right and you're wrong here. I'm just illustrating the logic behind my opinion. I made what I thought was a light-hearted comment, comparing a first year head coach in his first game making a bad call between 4th and 5 or a 64-yard field goal with the clock expiring to one of the most experienced coaches and reigning Superbowl champion making a call that quite likely cost his team a championship.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,542 ✭✭✭ Christy42


    The Patriots put on extra defensive backs for the play. They matched up with Seattle and hadn't really sold out in either direction.


    The play chosen turned it into effectively a 2 v 2 as they attempted to pick the corner back to get a receiver free. They weren't attacking behind the linebackers (who would be playing the run). It was a quick pass, no one who was interested in playing the run got involved from the Pats side.


    For me it was a mistake. Butler did a great job to make them pay for it with the game and credit to him. It can be multiple things. Just because a coach is a good coach does not mean he doesn't make mistakes, especially in the nfl where coaching just isn't a meritocracy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 34,590 ✭✭✭✭ eagle eye


    The huge thing was the timeout situation. I've no doubt his plan was to run on third and fourth down if things didn't work out on second down. It'd be stupid to run the ball with one timeout left on second down.

    If you fail to get it in you are struggling to get back to the line and get a play off to give you time for fourth down.

    As I've said, Malcolm Butler made a great play. That gets lost in the crap being talked about Carroll's decision. If you don't remember it have a look at it again, it wasn't a bad play just a great play by Butler.

    Tbh it should have been called as PI because Butler collided with the receiver just before the ball arrived. Again all this gets lost in the crap said about Carroll.



  • Registered Users Posts: 262 ✭✭ collybyrne


    I agree that Butler made a great play and that it was potentially PI. What you're missing out on there though is that none of those things can ever happen if the Seahawks hand it off to Lynch. The problem is still the decision to pass.

    You said yourself they were trying to do something the Patriots weren't expecting. However as the training footage released after the Superbowl showed, the Patriots had prepared for that exact play, although Butler missed the INT in training. Carroll tried to outfox Bellicheck with the call. He lost. Hence the conclusion that it was a bad call.

    Not a slight on Carroll as a coach or a person, just an assessment that with the resources available to him on the 1 yard line at that stage in the game, he made a bad shout.



  • Registered Users Posts: 34,590 ✭✭✭✭ eagle eye


    Welcome to the forum. Stick around, we need more people here.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 34,590 ✭✭✭✭ eagle eye


    Theres a difference in saying it was a bad call and calling it the worst call in history or worst call in the history of the Superbowl.

    I don't agree that it was a bad call given they only had one timeout left. I'm a Patriots fan and I think we got really lucky that Butler came out of nowhere to make the int. I was sure there would be a flag but there wasn't and we won which was great.



  • Registered Users Posts: 262 ✭✭ collybyrne


    In fairness, if you think it's a bad call, it's hard to think of a worse one.

    I read that analysis in tandem with Carroll's explanation at the time. I disagreed with it then and I respectfully disagree with your opinion now. That argument is just based on if's and maybe's. If x had have happened then maybe y would have happened. Then if y had have happened then maybe z would have happened. Then if z had have happened people would call Pete Carroll stupid.

    What about just playing what's in front of your face and punching it in from the 1 yard line with one of the best running backs of all time. Alot of good the timeout was to them when Brady was kneeling down with the ball in his hand and another ring in his pocket.

    Anyways, good talking to you man. Enjoy the games this weekend. Here's hoping the Pats can bounce back and pick up a win on the road.



  • Registered Users Posts: 34,590 ✭✭✭✭ eagle eye


    Nobody is expecting an interception on a short throw like that.

    You've got three downs and one timeout. It makes perfect sense not to run it on second down because you have third and fourth down to do that.

    The IFS I mention are real, I'd the ball isn't intercepted and is incomplete there isn't a word about it. If it's caught and it's a TD then Carroll is a genius. So you nit realise how stupid thus becomes based on outcomes.

    The least likely to occur is what happened. I thought it was being caught until Butler came out of nowhere. As I said it should have been a pi on Butler. If the PI is called then we don't hear a word about throwing it on second down.

    It's just all nonsense. With one timeout it's the correct decision any way you look at it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 262 ✭✭ collybyrne


    If's, by their very definition, are not real. That's why they're if's.

    Bellicheck was expecting an interception. There is literally footage of him coaching Malcolm Butler how to do it against that play call earlier in the week of the game.

    Pete Carroll bet against Bellicheck having prepared for that play in that situation. He got it wrong in a massive spot. Arguably the biggest spot in Super Bowl history.

    You state that it "makes perfect sense", it's a "matter of fact" and that it's "the correct decision any way you look at it" as if you're the sole authority on the matter. These are all just your opinion based on an analysis that doesn't take into account the fact that Marshawn Lynch was standing in the back field and had just mowed through the Patriots run D for 5 yards in the play right before.

    Of course there's logic in Carroll's explanation and the use of a pass play on second down etc. etc. There's probably logic in multiple other explanations and possible scenarios.

    It's my belief there's more logic in handing it to Lynch and letting him punch it in.

    We could go round and round and round on this. There is literally no right answer as it's an entirely subjective matter. No one is ever going to be able to prove any of the alternate scenarios. All we can ever have is an opinion. I have tried my best to respect yours while simultaneously illustrating why I disagree. You have referred to my opinion as "amateurish", "stupid" and now decided that you personally know what was "the correct decision any way you look at it". Regardless of the fact that many of the games most respected analysts, former players and coaches agreed it was one of the worst calls of all time. Even Pete Carroll's own players thought it was a terrible call.

    I don't know where else to go with this conversation.



  • Registered Users Posts: 34,590 ✭✭✭✭ eagle eye


    It was a sensible decision, it was also an analytically correct decision to pass on second down with one timeout.

    You don't go with your gut in that spot when you have two more downs to run it. Nobody expected an interception and it really should have been flagged anyway.

    The IFs are about the reaction to it which were way out of hand and stupid because it's all coming from the fact that the ball was intercepted which is ridiculous.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 262 ✭✭ collybyrne


    If you accept that the "Pro" of the pass play is to potentially preserve a timeout, you also have to accept that the "Con" of the pass play is the increased risk of turnover / sack / holding penalty / loss of yardage etc. You can't just look at the timeout issue in isolation. You also can't ignore the distance to goal and the fact that Beast Mode is right there.

    I can understand a team assessing that increased risk and decide based on the situation and resources / options available to them that it's perfectly acceptable and as such the right call to make. I believe Seattle should have looked at that situation and said, hang on a minute lads, we're on the 1-yard line and there's Marshawn Lynch standing there, let's give him the ball.

    Utilising the pass play to preserve the timeout can be the right call in many situations, sure. It's my opinion that it absolutely wasn't in that situation. They didn't need to roll the dice against Bellicheck with the options they had available. They could have smashed it in and there likely wouldn't have been a thing he could have done about it. Instead they provided the opportunity for his meticulous preparation to pay off and it did.



  • Registered Users Posts: 34,590 ✭✭✭✭ eagle eye


    I don't completely disagree with you. It's just that if you don't get in there it's unlikely you get a fourth down if you need it.

    And the biggest thing of all is that there was pass interference on the play and Butler couldn't have got the ball without it. You never hear anything about that though and pi was a big thing that time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 262 ✭✭ collybyrne


    The reason you never hear anything about the PI is because that's only a byproduct of the play call. The problem is the fact that there was ever an opportunity for Butler to do anything in the first place, penalty or no penalty. There was never a need to put Seattle in that situation, but the coaches took the higher risk option thinking about a timeout, instead of thinking about the defensive genius on the other sideline who had prepared for that exact scenario.

    Talking about the interception and the PI etc. is just talking about the execution of the play, either great by Butler or poor by Wilson / Lockette / The Refs. That was never the issue at hand and that's not what fed the reaction. The reaction was driven by the decision to ever let that sequence of events come to pass which came from Carroll / Bevell. That's why they got the brunt of the outcry and rightfully so in my opinion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 34,590 ✭✭✭✭ eagle eye


    A defensive genius would have prepared to stop the run as well, maybe even strip the ball.



  • Registered Users Posts: 262 ✭✭ collybyrne


    They had prepared to stop the run literally the play before and still gave up 5 yards. Seattle had a significant edge there, which again is part of the logic behind my opinion and playing what's in front of your face instead of being cute about preserving timeouts and playing for fourth down from the 1 yard line with Marshawn Lynch in the backfield.

    You started this conversation stating your opinion as fact, correct "whatever way you look at it" and so on. Now you're putting out hypothetical scenarios for alternative outcomes which has been my point all along. There is no right answer here, only someone's opinion. No one has the right to denigrate anyone else's thought's on the subject, referring to it as "nonsense" or "stupid" as you did mine.

    I've extensively outlined the logic behind my stance and tried as best as I can to rebut the elements of yours that I disagree with. You've just repeated yours ad nauseum without offering any real counter argument to what I've said. Like I said, I read the same articles as you probably did at the time about the logic of passing on second down. I can respect the opinion without agreeing with it.

    I love talking about football and enjoy being part of the community here, even if I'm not anything like as active as yourself or some of the other long time contributors. If you're serious about welcoming new comers and encouraging more participation here, maybe ease off on jumping on a light-hearted comment and trying to paint someone as somehow less knowledgeable for having an opinion that disagrees with yours.



  • Registered Users Posts: 34,590 ✭✭✭✭ eagle eye


    My opinion is based on logic, math, common sense and 40 years of watching football. I played it as well but only at an amateur level.

    You suggesting it's logical to go for the run on second down is incorrect.

    If you put a smiley in the post I would have figured out it was light hearted but it appeared to be a statement of fact.

    You seem like a nice guy, I've no problem with you and I'm sorry if you took my comments as saying you were stupid. I'm talking about the media being stupid. These guys have all the time in the world to research things. These guys will use math etc. when it suits them but not when it doesn't suit them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 262 ✭✭ collybyrne


    Once again, your post equates to nothing more than you're right and I'm wrong with no substantial counter to the arguments I've put forth. The logic and math you refer to only considers clock management. Clock management can't be the only consideration in determining this play call, ignoring all of the other elements of the situation I've outlined. If clock management was the be all and end all for coaches then Bellicheck would have called timeout on this exact play. He factored in the all the other elements of the situation and made a call which played out to be the correct one. Carroll didn't.

    The light hearted nature of my post was more about suggesting Hackett's call between two tough options in game 1 of the season was the worst call of all time. Off the top of my head I tried to reference what is widely regarded as the worst call in the history of the NFL as a humorous counter. My opinion is that it is certainly down there with the worst I've seen. I'm not a big user of emojis.

    Apology accepted. Enjoy the games man. Can't wait for 6pm myself.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,956 ✭✭✭ tripperman


    Going to change from Colts to Jaguars in that match up



  • Registered Users Posts: 34,590 ✭✭✭✭ eagle eye


    A player being picked off on a one yard throw is highly unlikely. It's not more than 1.5% likely to happen. Lynch getting in on a rush is at best 60%.

    Do you understand that?



  • Registered Users Posts: 37,681 ✭✭✭✭ Itssoeasy


    The colts D is a mess.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,761 ✭✭✭✭ Oat23


    Unreal from the Jets. Browns doing Browns things.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,049 ✭✭✭✭ Hello 2D Person Below


    Harbaugh has to go. Enough is enough.



  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,868 Mod ✭✭✭✭ adrian522


    Jimmy G time in SF by the looks of things



  • Registered Users Posts: 37,681 ✭✭✭✭ Itssoeasy


    What a disaster for the niners. Lance carted off the field.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,761 ✭✭✭✭ Oat23


    Lance took far too many hits in Chicago last week and tonight his injury is caused by a designed option run. It's like Shanahan was trying to get him killed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 34,590 ✭✭✭✭ eagle eye


    That's the problem with QB's who run a lot. There gonna be injuries and of you are lucky they won't be very serious. Unfortunately for Lance that looks serious. I hope it's not but it looked bad.

    Niners are lucky they don't didn't trade Jimmy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,542 ✭✭✭ Christy42


    Worst way to decide the Jimmy vs Trey debate. Also for SF the odds of Jimmy staying healthy the full season are slim but I guess Trey at least got them Jimmy G on a discount.


    Running a QB in between the tackles was utter stupidity. Lamar has played intelligently to not get injured taking advantage of space outside as well as the boundary and having room to slide. Any called run through the middle goes to an RB.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,761 ✭✭✭✭ Oat23



    You can be a running QB and be fine but that was just a terrible call and bad decision from Lance. 2 LBs came down into the box right before he decided to keep it so he was never getting successful run out of that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,761 ✭✭✭✭ Oat23


    I don't appreciate Nathaniel Hackett once again reminding me of the incompetence I had to watch from the Bears the last 2 years under Matt Nagy.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 37,681 ✭✭✭✭ Itssoeasy


    Yes the rams won but **** it did they make it far more difficult than I should’ve been.



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