Cold Case Review of Sophie Tuscan du Plantier murder to proceed. Threadbans in OP

Evergreen_7 · 13-01-2023 9:51am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120101270#Comment_120101270

These are my thoughts. The sample could be re-tested and to see if they can get enough to be uploaded to a genealogical website where they can find potential familial matches, build a tree and find the person whom it belongs to. GEDmatch is the database they used to catch the golden state killer, and many others since. I think it was quite a distant relative match they found, it doesn’t have to be a close match or the person themselves.

Evergreen_7 · 13-01-2023 9:52am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120101559#Comment_120101559

It’s a grey area. GEDmatch has an opt in clause when you sign up, so you consent to your DNA being used for potential criminal investigations. The U.K. are routinely using familial DNA to solve crimes. It’s very much the future of solving cold cases.

bemak · 13-01-2023 10:06am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120090997#Comment_120090997

another possibility - if someone was conscious not to touch the handle because of prints the most natural thing to do is open it with your elbow. if you try that on a door you make contact with an area similar to that marked with blood in the photo. the person doing this mightn't have known they had a blood stain on their elbow.

tinytobe · 13-01-2023 10:13am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120101688#Comment_120101688

Genealogical DNA would have to be ordered by somebody on-high and that only in line with legal regulations.

Considering how much collusion and coercion the Garda portrayed during that original investigation it would be an interesting result if when genealogical DNA is applied, the evidence would point to a Guard, via the family DNA of a Guard.

A certain Guard from Bantry with a strong sexual interest in foreign women was often mentioned as a possible killer. He also drove a certain car that was seen speeding away in the early hours of that morning. It is understood that this Guard died a long time ago. If this is the case that that Guard was actually really the killer, I'd say somebody in his family will know something and keep silent, - for family reasons and not wanting their reputation tarnished. It's not impossible that there was a deathbed confession among family members?

Big speculative "if" here, on my part.

Evergreen_7 · 13-01-2023 11:27am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120101746#Comment_120101746

I’ve heard that rumour alright, but didn’t it originate from Gemma O Doherty ?

not exactly a reputable source.

tinytobe · 13-01-2023 12:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120102092#Comment_120102092

Nothing to do with Gemma O Doherty.

It was speculated in this forum by users who claim to have "knowledge" about that Guard from Bantry and this user apparently knew his family. Whether that is to be believed or not is one thing, but it certainly should have been one of many enquires and directions of the investigation.

The subsequent collusion and corruption by the Guards would indeed point to a Guard, somebody either of a bit higher rank, or seniority to know what and how an investigation can be manipulated and botched.

It is strange that absolutely no DNA at all was found at the murder site, neither by a lab in Ireland, nor when they sent samples on to the UK. Either they were too incompetent to collect DNA, or it was deliberately swapped for something blank?

Again, it's a speculation of one possible scenario, one of many, - no evidence that it did go that way.

Or the killer really had more than enough time to clean up the site?

Mackinac · 13-01-2023 1:07pm

Did the rumour about the guard come about whilst he was alive or only after he died?

Mackinac · 13-01-2023 1:10pm

Agree that they didn’t notice leaving the blood mark, was that because it was dark and they didn’t see? If the attack happened in the morning surely they would have seen it? Though I guess it could still be dark enough in the morning that you wouldn’t see a mark.

tinytobe · 13-01-2023 2:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120102641#Comment_120102641

I am not local to that area. I've only read about the rumor about a Guard from Bantry with a strong sexual interest in foreign women in this forum. I suggest the locals would have heard about that early on. News travels fast in small communities and then there is the pub and the alcohol as well to consider and a good amount of storytelling on long winter nights. Everybody apparently "knows everything" about the neighbours.

But again, it's a line of enquiry that should have been followed up upon. However it would have been hard, especially if the Guards are corrupt.

Deeec · 13-01-2023 2:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120103042#Comment_120103042

Really when you think about it the randy Garda theory is exactly the same as the bailey theory - called over to Sophie's expecting sex.

I don't buy that Sophie could have had any previous relationship with this guard. It was her first time visiting cork alone so she wouldn't have had any opportunity. Now of course the guard could have known she was alone and took his chance.

I also don't like that Sophie is portrayed as as a promiscuous woman. Yes she had 2 supposed affairs that we know about - but that's not uncommon for the French - also her marriage wasn't stable There is no evidence that she was promiscuous other than the locals and media pushing that.

tinytobe · 13-01-2023 3:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120103154#Comment_120103154

We do not really know that. It would just be another line of enquiry.

However I don't think the promiscuity was on Sophie's mind during that particular trip to Ireland. Also somebody would have seen something in a pub, like Sophie talking to a man. There was nothing like that, at least that we know.

However I wouldn't exclude it, same as I would never exclude Bailey. Just because nothing was on Sophie's mind, it doesn't exclude that another man could have gotten the wrong idea, and that could have been that particular Guard.

Then there was also a certain former lover in France, who's alibi in my mind is more than doubtful. Apparently only a field technician from a phone company could verify his whereabouts, but I would suggest field technicians meet a lot of people in one day and get a lot of signatures for their work, - not certain if he could really identify Sophie's former lover.

chooseusername · 13-01-2023 7:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120101559#Comment_120101559

So, if there is a familial DNA match, say from another crime or genealogy database, that links a father, son or sibling for example, to a crime, what's to stop the police from investigating them further?. I know they can't build a case against them based on someone else's DNA, but it can point investigation in a certain direction.

For example, if DNA samples taken 26 years ago are unreliable now due to potential contamination and the new team decided to re-do DNA sampling in the area and no direct match to the murder was found, but a 50% familial match was found say on the concrete block, would this have to be ignored?

tinytobe · 13-01-2023 7:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120104389#Comment_120104389

The problem is that in this murder case, there is the likelihood that the murderer is already dead.

One would only consider familial DNA from the family of the suspect, for example the family of that Guard from Bantry to narrow it down. However if that particular Guard from Bantry passed away, he can't for obvious reasons no longer be convicted. The only thing you might get in using familial DNA from siblings or his father is an answer to is who done it.

That line of investigation can only be done, if familial DNA can legally obtained in Ireland.

Deeec · 13-01-2023 7:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120104488#Comment_120104488

At this stage there may never be a conviction. At least if dna was confirmed it would offer some closure for her family as to who was responsible for or this murder.

tinytobe · 13-01-2023 7:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120104522#Comment_120104522

That's precisely it.

I also see the Garda in a dilemma here, because any real and decent cold case review would only expose their own incompetence and corruption further. From this standpoint alone, I don't think things would ever get very far anyway.

Last year the Guards went to Paris to question a man, but no results were announced. They apparently re-examined the concrete block for DNA by some Dutch specialists, but again, no results were announced as well. It's pretty obvious this is going nowhere.

Ultimately they would have to match murderer to murder weapon and to scene of the crime, plus establish a motive in order to get a conviction beyond reasonable doubt in a court of law.

Whether Bailey knew Sophie personally, whether Bailey had scratches on his hands around Christmas, whether Bailey ever bought a bottle of expensive French wine, or whether Bailey was loitering in a dark coat or unshaven in a back alley doesn't matter at all, it's all circumstantial and proves nothing.

The Guards had Bailey's DNA early on, but were never able to match his to the murder in any way shape or form. So, if Bailey's DNA was not found at the murder scene, nor on the body of Sophie, Bailey could simply not have gotten the scratches on his hand at the murder scene or by murdering Sophie.

Ush1 · 13-01-2023 9:35pm

The question is so they have a good DNA sample from the crime scene that could only be from the killer?

Fr Tod Umptious · 13-01-2023 9:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120104389#Comment_120104389

But if that sample is a match in a genealogical DNA database and it sends the investigation in a certain direction then the investigation cannot go in that direction.

Because what sent it in that direction is not admissable.

The DNA sample was not allowed to be compared with a genealogical DNA database in the first place.

odyssey06 · 13-01-2023 9:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120105006#Comment_120105006

I havent seen solid info on how good the sample is ie could it provide an exact match or just narrow down the range.

tinytobe · 13-01-2023 11:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120105119#Comment_120105119

Me neither.

It's either too weak to be of any help, or they were unable to match it to anybody, least of all Bailey.

And then there is the question on whether finding it on Sophie's boot was actually from the time of the murder.

It's worth following up in any case, but as we haven't heard anything new for many months now it's probably another dead end?

13-01-2023 11:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120104563#Comment_120104563

Not necessarily. He could have cut his hand left DNA and the DNA blown away before Harbison arrived. Just because it was not found does not mean he didn't leave it

tinytobe · 13-01-2023 11:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120105568#Comment_120105568

Na, the night of the murder had little wind, and there was also no rain. Also Bailey doesn't strike me as a man who is able to clean something thoroughly. If it was Bailey, it's also possible he may have had help cleaning? Theoretically, yes, it's possible that it was Bailey, however my gut feeling says he didn't do it.

If no DNA was found, it was either really cleaned by somebody, or the Guards didn't know how to properly collect it, or somebody afterwards at the Garda station exchanged it for blanks.

14-01-2023 1:24am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120105699#Comment_120105699

Yes the night of the murder was cold frosty but the day following was windy I'm sure. And she was there a long while until Harbison arrived. A little DNA could easily blow away. So not having Bailey DNA found does not necessarily mean it wasn't ever there.

No DNA found means the killer was lucky. Harbison being delayed probably helped the killer.

The DNA on her shoe could have come from the PM or have been there before the murder. This is mentioned in West Cork.

I knew someone who was with the media there after it happened. They said it was common knowledge Bailey did it. I don't know if that was common knowledge put around by the Gardai or not. I lost touch with them so can't ask.

I don't know if Bailey did it but I don't buy the Garda story by Gemma O'Doherty

Fr Tod Umptious · 14-01-2023 2:04am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120103042#Comment_120103042

But again, it's a line of enquiry that should have been followed up upon.

But what is it exactly based on?

You yourself admitted that you only read about it here.

What makes you think the Gardai should have followed a line of inquiry that you yourself only ever read about on a message board 25 years later?

Maybe someone did come to the Gardai about a randy Garda from Bantry and they followed up on it to the point the guy in question had a rock solid alabi and that was that.

tinytobe · 14-01-2023 9:55am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120106123#Comment_120106123

It is based on an enquiry and an investigation which should have gone in many more directions. Also the Gardai would hardly have investigated one of their own, especially if he was in a higher rank, or more senior plus the whole police force was corrupt. The Gardai also never followed up or tried to establish who owned that car seen speeding away. They had a color and a model, it's not that hard to go through registrations.

Coercing witnesses or supplying drugs can hardly be seen as normal police procedure and the Bandon Garda station tapes give you further insight.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120106074#Comment_120106074

Gemma O'Doherty has absolutely nothing to do with this investigation. She may have voiced an opinion, an opinion which others may have had as well at the time.

Yes, it is entirely possible that Bailey really did it, and that Bailey also never cleaned up after the murder and was simply lucky. He could also have known that the local Guards were completely incompetent in gathering DNA and could have volunteered his DNA just to look good. He would have known or guessed that the Guards would come to ask him for a sample anyway, so he might as well have easily volunteered it, just on the off chance and to position him in a better light. I am also aware that Bailey's job was to cover crime at some point in his journalistic career plus he is a Brit and DNA technology is one of the things Britain was always leading in. It is entirely possible that Bailey knew about DNA and solving crimes a lot more than the local Guards.

Bailey could have hiked over to Sophie's after his partner was fast asleep. The whole hike would have taken him roughly around one hour one way, knocked at her door, demanded sex or something different, then killed her in rage or not in rage and then hiked back for around another hour and then cleaned himself up. At the earliest he would have returned some time between 3 and 4 pm (if he left at 1pm), showered at the studio, put on different clothes and went back to the Prairie house, and then went to bed. Later on he would have burnt the coat behind the studio. Bailey was also known to have taken hikes at night time and was familiar on how to get around in this terrain.

It's entirely possible that it happened that way. Only thing that bothers me, is he had no real motive I could think of, and quite a lot to drink just before and it would have meant 2 hours of hiking.

I don't think he drove in Jule's car. The car was examined as well, but I don't know how thoroughly the Guards would have done their job on this? And then there is also the possibility that Jules drove him, and helped in the cleaning up activity and always stuck to her story. She must have loved him a lot at some point, they stayed together even after Bailey beat her up at some point.

Fr Tod Umptious · 14-01-2023 10:13am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120106387#Comment_120106387

It is based on an enquiry and an investigation which should have gone in many more directions. Also the Gardai would hardly have investigated one of their own, especially if he was in a higher rank, or more senior plus the whole police force was corrupt. The Gardai also never followed up or tried to establish who owned that car seen speeding away. They had a color and a model, it's not that hard to go through registrations.

But what are you basing all this on ?

Nothing other than something you read on the internet.

How do you know "the Gardai never followed up or tried to establish who owned the car seen speeding away" when the only knowledge you have of a car seen speeding away is based on something you read on the internet.

What makes you think a randy Garda from Bantry with a interest in foreign women even existed in the first place?

You are only basing their existence on something you read here.

Yet you are accusing the Gardai of being narrow minded in their investigations because you think they didn't investigate something that you can't even prove existed.

Do you not see how stupid that is?

tinytobe · 14-01-2023 10:41am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120106410#Comment_120106410

I could say the same about your comments. What are you basing your statements on?

An investigation should go into all directions.

What an investigation should not be about is pick somebody and try to pin the crime on him. This is even worse if there is no evidence around at all.

Suppose the Guards would have gotten somewhere with their incompetent approach:

Suppose Martin Graham would have gotten Bailey to talk, suppose Bailey confessed to Martin Graham that he did kill Sophie, would that have stood in a court of law? Martin Graham a transient, a man of no means, sleeping in barns, getting drugs from the Guards to get Bailey to talk? Is a judge and a jury supposed to find this credible?

Suppose Marie Farrell would have "seen" Bailey at Kaelfadda bridge with certainty, suppose Marie Farrell even stated in a court of law that she had "clearly seen the face of Bailey", stopped, had a brief social chit chat, and could then firmly establish that Bailey was really out there at night, would that still prove murder?

It would have gone nowhere from point of view of getting a conviction. Were the Guards really that dumb into believing this would have lead somewhere?

Fr Tod Umptious · 14-01-2023 10:51am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120106453#Comment_120106453

An investigation should go into all directions.

But maybe it did, and those directions were dead ends, and dead ends that were reached quickly, while at the same time you had Bailey who was becoming more and more of a suspect by the day.

You or I have no idea of what was investigated and what was not, who was ruled out quickly or who took longer to exclude, and why they were excluded.

This rubbish about cars speeding away and a randy Garda from Bantry is just that, rubbish.

And for clarity I think Bailey remains the prime suspect because of all the circumstantial evidence against him. It's not enough for a charge but it's far more than anyone else.